station climatology
Telegram alerts @tempterminal --:--:-- UTC
live obs
15°C
ZHHH 0700Z
today high so far
15°C
at 15:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 15:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:29
00040812162024 now
chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤8°C0%0¢
9°C0%0¢
10°C0%0¢
11°C0%0¢
12°C0%0¢
13°C0%0¢
14°C0%0¢
15°C73%98¢
16°C26%2¢
17°C1%0¢
≥18°C0%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (13.9° after taking out its usual 0.6° cold lean here), narrowed by what ZHHH has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h °C local
-4°1°6°11°16°21°17:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:00ECMWF 14°CNOW 15°C
-4°1°6°11°16°21°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 14°CNOW 15°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZHHH, 8 obs
METAR ZHHH 100700Z 26002MPS 230V340 CAVOK 15/M01 Q1030 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
15:00 15° -1° 260/04 CAVOK —
14:00 14° -1° 240/04 CAVOK —
13:00 13° -3° 260/04 CAVOK —
12:00 13° -1° 230/04 CAVOK —
11:00 11° 0° — CAVOK —
10:00 11° 2° — CAVOK —
09:00 8° 3° 100/04 CAVOK —
08:00 7° 4° 050/04 NSC —
current state
▼
METAR 15°C at 15:00 local, -4.0°C vs 14d-median (19°C this hour) ZHHH, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~16°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (-1°C→-1°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (15°C @ 15:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥21°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥21°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -4.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 14°C, current 15°C @ 15:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 19.0°C usual 16.0°C–21.0°C
typical 15:00 20.0°C usual 16.0°C–22.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
25°C
14d high, 2026 10 31
avg high20.0°C
usual range16.0°C – 22.0°C
days ≥21°C5 / 14
days ≥22°C4 / 14
days ≥23°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 80% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 80% of 127 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0013°C
implied peak14°C vs ecmwf 14°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
15° now at 15:00peak already set on 94% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0015°+5.2°12%
0114°+5.7°10%
0214°+5.9°10%
0314°+6.3°12%
0413°+6.4°12%
0513°+6.6°12%
0613°+6.8°12%
0713°+6.9°12%
0814°+5.8°12%
0915°+4.5°12%
1016°+3.3°12%
1117°+2.2°16%
1218°+1.3°27%
1319°+0.8°42%
1419°+0.3°73%
1519°+0.1°94%
1619°+0.0°100%
1718°+0.0°100%
1817°+0.1°100%
1916°+0.3°100%
2016°+0.3°100%
2115°+0.1°100%
2215°+0.1°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear2.2° above normal across 56 days (+1.1 to +3.3).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+2.2°56d
few+1.5°29d
scattered-0.2°52d
broken-2.1°33d
overcast-4.4°41d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 4kt+0.7° across 24 days (-0.1 to +1.4) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SW+2.9°13d
E+2.8°61d
NW+1.4°12d
VARIABLE+1.4°33d
W+0.7°24d
NE-0.8°74d
N-2.4°81d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 6°C 23°C 13°C 16°C
01:00 15°C 6°C 22°C 13°C 17°C
02:00 15°C 10°C 22°C 13°C 17°C
03:00 15°C 9°C 21°C 13°C 17°C
04:00 15°C 8°C 21°C 13°C 16°C
05:00 15°C 8°C 21°C 13°C 16°C
06:00 15°C 7°C 17°C 13°C 16°C
07:00 14°C 6°C 17°C 13°C 15°C
08:00 15°C 6°C 18°C 13°C 16°C
09:00 15°C 7°C 18°C 13°C 16°C
10:00 15°C 9°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
11:00 17°C 11°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
12:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 15°C 20°C
13:00 18°C 13°C 23°C 16°C 20°C
14:00 19°C 13°C 25°C 16°C 21°C
15:00 19°C 13°C 25°C 16°C 21°C
16:00 18°C 13°C 25°C 15°C 21°C
17:00 18°C 11°C 24°C 15°C 21°C
18:00 17°C 9°C 24°C 14°C 19°C
19:00 16°C 9°C 23°C 14°C 18°C
20:00 16°C 9°C 23°C 14°C 18°C
21:00 16°C 9°C 23°C 13°C 18°C
22:00 16°C 7°C 23°C 14°C 17°C
23:00 15°C 7°C 23°C 13°C 17°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 6°C —
11-09 13°C —
11-08 16°C —
11-07 18°C —
11-06 22°C —
11-05 19°C —
11-04 15°C —
11-03 16°C —
11-02 21°C —
11-01 23°C —
10-31 25°C —
10-30 23°C —
10-29 18°C —
10-28 20°C —
forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days
daymodelsaid highmiss
08-11ICON16°16°-0.4°
07-11ICON19°18°+0.6°
06-11ICON22°22°+0.2°
05-11ICON20°19°+0.5°
04-11JMA18°15°+3.3°
03-11ICON16°16°+0.4°
02-11ICON21°21°+0.0°
01-11ICON22°23°-1.2°
31-10ICON25°25°+0.1°
30-10ICON23°23°+0.0°
29-10ICON18°18°+0.3°
28-10ICON19°20°-1.3°
27-10ICON19°21°-1.9°
26-10ICON23°25°-1.9°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.1°, within a degree on 50% of days.
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON13.5°13.7°0.98°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM12.9°14.6°1.19°
NOAA GFS13.2°15.6°1.24°
UK Met Office12.6°15.4°1.48°
JMA GSM15.7°18.1°1.63°
ECMWF IFS14.6°16.9°1.65°
CMA GRAPES13.2°15.3°1.88°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.98°-0.67°68%
Environment Canada GEM1.19°-0.31°55%
NOAA GFS1.24°-0.42°53%
UK Met Office1.48°-0.24°34%
JMA GSM1.63°+1.35°37%
ECMWF IFS1.65°+0.16°29%
CMA GRAPES1.88°-0.76°16%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z
forecast max16°at 10/07Zmin 5°issued by the national met service
base10/06Z→11/06Z150° 3mps; 6000m; no significant cloud
TAF ZHHH 100302Z 1006/1106 15003MPS 6000 NSC TX16/1007Z TN05/1022Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤8°C0%1%1/68
9°C0%0%0/68
10°C0%3%2/68
11°C0%1%1/68
12°C0%1%1/68
13°C0%3%2/68
14°C0%4%3/68
15°C98%1%1/68
16°C2%6%4/68
17°C0%3%2/68
≥18°C0%75%51/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.