station climatology
--:--:-- UTC

How warm does it actually get?

Daily maximum temperature for 51 cities, each tied to the airport station it is measured at, built from five years of hourly observations. See how far a station usually climbs from the temperature it is showing right now, which forecast model is most accurate there, and what the aerodrome forecast says.

What you get for a station

The climb to peak

At 06:00 a station has most of its warming ahead of it; by 16:00 it usually does not. We hold the hourly distribution for every day of the year, so the page can say how much further this station typically climbs from the hour it is in now — and how often the peak is already behind it.

Which model to trust here

Seven forecast models scored against what the station actually recorded, per city. The best model is not the same everywhere: in a typical city the best and worst are 1.7°C apart, and 35 of 48 cities show a gap over a degree.

Wind regime

Which wind directions run warm or cold at this station, measured against its own day-of-year normal, by season. A southwesterly means something different in London than it does in Seoul.

The aerodrome forecast

The station's own TAF, decoded into plain language, including the forecast maximum where the issuing service publishes one.

Where the numbers come from

Every figure traces to a public source, and the page says which. Station observations and climatology are Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archives, which are public domain. Forecasts are Open-Meteo. Aerodrome forecasts are NOAA. 51 temperature markets across 46 airport stations. 46 settle on the day's maximum temperature; the other 5 settle on its minimum and share a station with their maximum twin. Of the 51, 51 have enough scored history to rank forecast models. Rebuilt every thirty minutes.

Sources and method

stationsall 51

Daily maximum — or the minimum, for the 5 markets badged MIN. Shown in °F where the market settles in °F, °C elsewhere.
— — rebuilt every 30 min
AmsterdamEHAM 20:23
now18°C
peak20°C
AnkaraLTAC 21:23
now15°C
peak21°C
AtlantaKATL 14:23
now79°F
peak79°F
AustinKAUS 13:23
now95°F
peak97°F
BeijingZBAA 02:23
now22°C
peak24°C
Buenos AiresSAEZ 15:23
now20°C
peak18°C
BusanRKPK 03:23
now19°C
peak30°C
Cape TownFACT 20:23
now17°C
peak21°C
ChengduZUUU 02:23
now22°C
peak24°C
ChicagoKORD 13:23
now66°F
peak66°F
ChongqingZUCK 02:23
now23°C
peak27°C
DallasKDAL 13:23
now94°F
peak96°F
DenverKBKF 12:23
now67°F
peak76°F
GuangzhouZGGG 02:23
now29°C
peak32°C
HelsinkiEFHK 21:23
now11°C
peak12°C
HoustonKHOU 13:23
now92°F
peak95°F
IstanbulLTFM 21:23
now12°C
peak16°C
JeddahOEJN 21:23
now32°C
peak38°C
Kuala LumpurWMKK 02:23
now28°C
peak30°C
LondonEGLC 19:23
now21°C
peak24°C
LondonMINEGLC 19:23
now21°C
peak15°C
Los AngelesKLAX 11:23
now77°F
peak87°F
LucknowVILK 23:53
now28°C
peak32°C
MadridLEMD 20:23
now31°C
peak32°C
ManilaRPLL 02:23
now28°C
peak30°C
Mexico CityMMMX 12:23
now21°C
peak24°C
MiamiKMIA 14:23
now82°F
peak83°F
MilanLIMC 20:23
now20°C
peak22°C
MoscowUUWW 21:23
now17°C
peak17°C
MunichEDDM 20:23
now11°C
peak17°C
New YorkKLGA 14:23
now68°F
peak66°F
ParisLFPB 20:23
now24°C
peak25°C
ParisMINLFPB 20:23
now24°C
peak11°C
QingdaoZSQD 02:23
now19°C
peak26°C
San FranciscoKSFO 11:23
now62°F
peak76°F
SeattleKSEA 11:23
now59°F
peak68°F
SeoulRKSI 03:23
now21°C
peak25°C
SeoulMINRKSI 03:23
now21°C
peak19°C
ShanghaiZSPD 02:23
now24°C
peak27°C
ShanghaiMINZSPD 02:23
now24°C
peak24°C
ShenzhenZGSZ 02:23
now28°C
peak32°C
SingaporeWSSS 02:23
now29°C
peak30°C
São PauloSBGR 15:23
now16°C
peak17°C
TaipeiRCSS 02:23
now25°C
peak31°C
Tel AvivLLBG 21:23
now27°C
peak31°C
TokyoRJTT 03:23
now21°C
peak28°C
TokyoMINRJTT 03:23
now21°C
peak20°C
TorontoCYYZ 14:23
now18°C
peak18°C
WarsawEPWA 20:23
now11°C
peak16°C
WellingtonNZWN 06:23
now
peak12°C
WuhanZHHH 02:23
now22°C
peak30°C

forecast modelsaccuracy by station

51 of 51 markets, 7 models, scored against observed station maxima. A market needs 25 scored days to appear, which is why three are absent. Errors are in °C everywhere, including markets displayed in °F.
league table mean absolute error across all stations lower is better
modelaccuracy MAEcities wonscored
DWD ICONicon_seamless0.97°C1951
UK Met Officeukmo_seamless1.12°C1251
Environment Canada GEMgem_seamless1.15°C651
ECMWF IFSecmwf_ifs0251.27°C451
NOAA GFSgfs_seamless1.28°C851
CMA GRAPEScma_grapes_global1.63°C251
JMA GSMjma_gsm2.17°C051
best model per station minimum 25 scored days
stationmost accurate its MAEworst modelwithin 1°C
AmsterdamDWD ICON0.45°C2.23°C95%AnkaraEnvironment Canada GEM0.74°C2.38°C71%AtlantaNOAA GFS0.56°C2.55°C86%AustinNOAA GFS0.59°C2.62°C83%BeijingUK Met Office1.02°C1.49°C59%Buenos AiresECMWF IFS0.79°C1.56°C75%BusanNOAA GFS0.83°C4.74°C72%Cape TownUK Met Office0.73°C2.31°C74%ChengduDWD ICON1.21°C2.39°C51%ChicagoDWD ICON0.77°C1.26°C76%ChongqingDWD ICON1.03°C2.41°C61%DallasEnvironment Canada GEM0.69°C1.25°C78%DenverNOAA GFS0.91°C2.63°C79%GuangzhouCMA GRAPES0.99°C2.67°C55%HelsinkiEnvironment Canada GEM0.59°C0.96°C84%HoustonEnvironment Canada GEM0.82°C1.99°C78%IstanbulDWD ICON0.62°C2.90°C84%JeddahDWD ICON0.97°C6.56°C61%Kuala LumpurUK Met Office0.63°C3.83°C78%Los AngelesNOAA GFS0.50°C5.65°C88%LondonUK Met Office0.51°C2.26°C91%LondonUK Met Office0.51°C2.26°C91%LucknowDWD ICON0.78°C2.44°C78%MadridECMWF IFS0.68°C2.68°C87%ManilaDWD ICON0.85°C1.54°C66%Mexico CityUK Met Office0.86°C2.18°C68%MiamiUK Met Office0.65°C1.82°C82%MilanDWD ICON0.53°C2.81°C91%MoscowDWD ICON0.64°C0.93°C78%MunichDWD ICON0.57°C3.04°C86%New YorkEnvironment Canada GEM0.82°C1.58°C75%ParisDWD ICON0.38°C2.72°C99%ParisDWD ICON0.38°C2.72°C99%QingdaoECMWF IFS0.92°C1.46°C66%São PauloECMWF IFS0.88°C1.99°C70%SeattleNOAA GFS1.46°C1.99°C55%SeoulDWD ICON0.77°C3.55°C75%SeoulDWD ICON0.77°C3.55°C75%San FranciscoEnvironment Canada GEM1.31°C3.71°C47%ShanghaiUK Met Office0.77°C3.42°C75%ShanghaiUK Met Office0.77°C3.42°C75%ShenzhenDWD ICON0.97°C1.72°C59%SingaporeDWD ICON0.56°C2.37°C83%TaipeiNOAA GFS1.08°C3.70°C61%Tel AvivDWD ICON0.39°C2.22°C97%TokyoUK Met Office1.13°C2.83°C63%TokyoUK Met Office1.13°C2.83°C63%TorontoNOAA GFS0.63°C3.03°C84%WarsawDWD ICON0.62°C1.56°C86%WellingtonCMA GRAPES0.76°C1.09°C72%WuhanUK Met Office1.15°C1.63°C50%

Scored against the daily maximum the station actually recorded, not against the midpoint of a winning market bucket. A bucket midpoint quantises every error to the nearest degree and its tails are open-ended, so it flatters every model equally.

sourcesand method

what each number is built from, and what it will not tell you

Observations

Station observations and all climatology come from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive, which republishes METAR reports from national weather services. IEM places its archive in the public domain. Five years of hourly observations per station underpin the climb-to-peak distributions, the day-of-year normals and the wind regimes.

Day-of-year figures are smoothed over a ±7 day window, because a single calendar day gives roughly five samples in five years — too few to quote. The window is why a panel can show a mean that sits close to its own quartiles.

Forecasts

Model forecasts come from Open-Meteo (CC-BY-4.0), covering ECMWF IFS, GFS, ICON, UKMO, GEM, JMA and CMA. Aerodrome forecasts are the TAFs published by NOAA Aviation Weather Center, a United States Government work.

How models are scored

Each model's forecast is compared with the maximum the station actually recorded that day. We do not score against the midpoint of a winning market bucket: a one-degree bucket rounds every error to the nearest degree and its outer buckets are unbounded, which flatters accurate and inaccurate models alike. A city needs 25 scored days before it appears.

What this does not do

It does not forecast. The figures here describe what a station has done historically, given the hour and the day of year, and how well published models have performed against it. A climatological distribution is not a prediction, and on any individual day the weather is free to ignore it.

Temperatures are shown in the unit each market settles in — Fahrenheit for United States stations, Celsius elsewhere. Climbs and anomalies are differences, so they carry no offset when converted.

Markets

Some pages compare a market's own prices with this station's history. Those bucket probabilities come from Polymarket temperature markets and are shown as published, refreshed with each rebuild. A market column may sum to slightly more or less than 100% — prices are quoted independently per bucket and rounded for display. Nothing here is trading advice.

Nearby personal weather stations

City maps show nearby personal weather stations alongside the official airport observation. They are volunteer-operated, unevenly sited and not the instrument any market settles on; they are there for spatial context, not for resolution.

What the counts mean

51 temperature markets across 46 airport stations. 46 settle on the day's maximum temperature; the other 5 settle on its minimum and share a station with their maximum twin. Of the 51, 51 have enough scored history to rank forecast models.

Attribution

Iowa Environmental Mesonet, Iowa State University · Open-Meteo (CC-BY-4.0) · NOAA / National Weather Service.

termsand privacy

what this is, what it is not, and what we keep

This is not financial advice

TempTerminal publishes weather observations, climatology and published forecasts. Some pages place a prediction market's own quoted prices beside what a station has historically done. That is a comparison, not a recommendation. Nothing here is financial, investment or trading advice, no outcome is predicted or guaranteed, and you should not make a financial decision on the basis of this site. Prediction markets can lose money and are not available or lawful everywhere.

A climatological base rate describes what has happened before, given the date and the hour. It knows nothing about today's weather. Where the market and the base rate disagree, the market usually holds information the base rate cannot.

Not affiliated

TempTerminal is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Polymarket, the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, Iowa State University, NOAA, the National Weather Service, Open-Meteo, any national meteorological service, or any airport or station operator. Their names appear only to say where a number came from.

Accuracy

Everything here is provided as is. Observations can be missing, late or wrong at source; a station can fail; an upstream service can go down. We show a source and a timestamp on the numbers so you can judge them, and we say when a reading is unavailable rather than showing a stale one silently. We do not warrant that any figure is correct, and we accept no liability for decisions made using them.

What we collect

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If analytics are added later, this page will say so before they are switched on, and anything non-essential will ask first.

Contact

Corrections about a station, a source or a number are genuinely welcome — they are how this gets more accurate. Write to hello@tempterminal.com. If a figure here looks wrong, say which station and which date and it can be checked against the raw observations.

Amsterdam

19:55 local
EHAM ↗52.31°, 4.77°sunset 19:38
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 19.0°C p25–p75 16.0°C–19.0°C
typical 14:00 20.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–21.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
18°C
EHAM 1755Z
today high so far
20°C
at 16:55
forecast peak
19°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.45°C
18°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
EHAM 52.31°, 4.77°
observed 19:55 local
usually warmestsunset 19:38
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
11°13°15°17°19°21°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 18°C
12°15°18°21°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 18°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR EHAM, 8 obs
METAR EHAM 231755Z 26008KT 230V290 9999 BKN031 18/14 Q1021 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
19:55 18° 14° 260/08 BKN031
19:25 18° 14° 260/10 BKN034
18:55 18° 14° 260/09 BKN035
18:25 18° 14° 250/10 BKN041
17:55 18° 14° 270/12 BKN030
17:25 18° 13° 270/15 BKN029
16:55 20° 13° 260/10 FEW029
16:25 20° 13° 250/10 FEW029
current state
METAR 18°C at 19:55 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (16°C–19°C) EHAM, tracking climatology
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 20°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (14°C→14°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 20°C, current 18°C @ 19:55
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
24°C
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high20.0°C
p25–p7519.0°C – 21.0°C
days ≥21°C5 / 14
days ≥22°C2 / 14
days ≥23°C1 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 20°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
18° now at 20:00peak already set on 98% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0014°+4.5°9%
0114°+4.7°9%
0213°+5.0°9%
0313°+5.1°11%
0413°+5.3°9%
0513°+5.3°12%
0613°+5.5°11%
0713°+5.4°11%
0814°+4.5°11%
0915°+3.4°11%
1016°+2.6°15%
1116°+1.8°20%
1217°+1.3°34%
1317°+0.9°51%
1418°+0.4°75%
1518°+0.2°91%
1617°+0.1°97%
1717°+0.1°98%
1816°+0.1°98%
1915°+0.1°98%
2015°+0.1°98%
2114°+0.1°100%
2214°+0.1°100%
2314°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now W, 8kt
SW+0.9°n=87
SE+0.5°n=54
S+0.5°n=91
E+0.0°n=31
NE-0.5°n=18
W-0.9°n=55
N-0.9°n=16
NW-1.5°n=26
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 12°C 19°C 13°C 17°C
01:00 15°C 11°C 19°C 13°C 17°C
02:00 14°C 11°C 19°C 13°C 16°C
03:00 14°C 10°C 19°C 13°C 16°C
04:00 14°C 10°C 19°C 13°C 18°C
05:00 15°C 10°C 19°C 13°C 18°C
06:00 15°C 9°C 19°C 13°C 18°C
07:00 15°C 11°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
08:00 15°C 12°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
09:00 16°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
10:00 17°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
11:00 18°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 18°C
12:00 18°C 16°C 23°C 18°C 19°C
13:00 18°C 17°C 24°C 17°C 19°C
14:00 19°C 16°C 24°C 18°C 20°C
15:00 19°C 15°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
16:00 20°C 16°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
17:00 19°C 16°C 22°C 17°C 20°C
18:00 19°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 20°C
19:00 19°C 16°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
20:00 17°C 14°C 20°C 15°C 19°C
21:00 17°C 13°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 13°C 20°C 15°C 17°C
23:00 16°C 12°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 19°C
09-21 19°C
09-20 19°C
09-19 20°C
09-18 18°C
09-17 17°C
09-16 19°C
09-15 24°C
09-14 22°C
09-13 21°C
09-12 21°C
09-11 21°C
09-10 20°C
09-09 18°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON19.3°17.5°0.45°most accurate here
UK Met Office20.0°17.7°0.49°
Environment Canada GEM19.3°17.6°0.64°
ECMWF IFS19.3°17.0°0.84°
CMA GRAPES19.0°16.4°0.87°
NOAA GFS20.6°17.8°0.98°
JMA GSM19.1°16.8°2.23°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.45°+0.01°95%
UK Met Office0.49°-0.10°91%
Environment Canada GEM0.64°+0.11°86%
ECMWF IFS0.84°-0.68°66%
CMA GRAPES0.87°-0.77°67%
NOAA GFS0.98°+0.58°64%
JMA GSM2.23°-2.22°13%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z230° 12kt; 10km+; broken at 4,000ft
becoming23/18Z→23/20Z330° 14kt
temporarily30%23/18Z→23/20Z7000m; light rain; light showers rain; scattered at 1,800ft (TCU); broken at 2,500ft
becoming23/20Z→23/23Z320° 7kt
becoming24/16Z→24/19Zvariable 2kt
TAF EHAM 231710Z 2318/2424 23012KT 9999 BKN040 BECMG 2318/2320 33014KT PROB30 TEMPO 2318/2320 7000 -RA -SHRA SCT018TCU BKN025 BECMG 2320/2323 32007KT BECMG 2416/2419 VRB02KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤14°C0%9%6/66
15°C0%5%3/66
16°C0%15%10/66
17°C0%14%9/66
18°C0%15%10/66
19°C0%14%9/66
20°C100%8%5/66
21°C0%6%4/66
22°C0%6%4/66
23°C0%6%4/66
≥24°C0%3%2/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Ankara

20:50 local
LTAC ↗40.13°, 33.00°sunset 18:44
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 22.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–24.0°C
typical 15:00 26.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–30.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
live obs
15°C
LTAC 1750Z
today high so far
18°C
at 17:20
forecast peak
21°C
Environment Canada GEM most accurate here, MAE 0.74°C
15°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
LTAC 40.13°, 33.00°
observed 20:50 local
usually warmestsunset 18:44
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
11°16°21°26°31°22:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:00ECMWF 21°CNOW 15°C
11°16°21°26°31°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 21°CNOW 15°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LTAC, 8 obs
METAR LTAC 231750Z 29005KT 260V320 9999 SCT040 SCT080 15/08 Q1017 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:50 15° 290/05 SCT040
20:20 15° 300/06 SCT040
19:50 16° 290/07 SCT040
19:20 16° 270/05 SCT040
18:50 16° 260/04 SCT040
18:20 17° 280/04 BKN080
17:50 17° 280/08 BKN080
17:20 18° 290/08 BKN080
current state
METAR 15°C at 20:50 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (22°C this hour) LTAC, running behind climatology
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 19°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (8°C→8°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 21°C, current 15°C @ 20:50
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
33°C
14d high, 2026 09 13
avg high26.0°C
p25–p7524.0°C – 30.0°C
days ≥27°C5 / 14
days ≥28°C4 / 14
days ≥29°C4 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+2.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 21°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
15° now at 21:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0014°+10.6°2%
0113°+11.5°2%
0213°+12.1°2%
0312°+12.7°2%
0412°+13.2°2%
0511°+13.7°2%
0611°+13.9°2%
0712°+12.6°0%
0815°+9.9°0%
0918°+7.3°0%
1020°+4.9°0%
1122°+3.2°0%
1223°+1.9°12%
1324°+1.2°23%
1424°+0.4°63%
1525°+0.2°91%
1624°+0.0°100%
1723°+0.0°100%
1821°+0.0°100%
1920°+0.0°100%
2018°+0.0°100%
2117°+0.1°100%
2216°+0.0°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now W, 5kt
SW+1.9°n=90
S+0.4°n=15
VARIABLE-0.4°n=16
W-0.7°n=50
E-2.2°n=24
NE-2.3°n=54
N-3.1°n=13
NW-4.3°n=15
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 13°C 20°C 15°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
02:00 15°C 12°C 17°C 14°C 17°C
03:00 15°C 10°C 17°C 13°C 16°C
04:00 14°C 10°C 19°C 13°C 15°C
05:00 14°C 9°C 17°C 12°C 15°C
06:00 14°C 9°C 17°C 12°C 15°C
07:00 13°C 10°C 18°C 12°C 15°C
08:00 15°C 10°C 19°C 14°C 16°C
09:00 17°C 14°C 21°C 15°C 18°C
10:00 19°C 14°C 24°C 17°C 20°C
11:00 21°C 15°C 26°C 20°C 24°C
12:00 22°C 16°C 30°C 21°C 26°C
13:00 23°C 17°C 31°C 20°C 27°C
14:00 24°C 17°C 32°C 22°C 28°C
15:00 24°C 18°C 33°C 23°C 29°C
16:00 25°C 18°C 32°C 23°C 30°C
17:00 25°C 18°C 32°C 23°C 30°C
18:00 24°C 17°C 31°C 22°C 29°C
19:00 22°C 16°C 29°C 20°C 28°C
20:00 22°C 17°C 27°C 19°C 24°C
21:00 20°C 15°C 24°C 18°C 22°C
22:00 18°C 15°C 21°C 16°C 19°C
23:00 17°C 15°C 21°C 16°C 19°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 25°C
09-21 26°C
09-20 25°C
09-19 23°C
09-18 24°C
09-17 18°C
09-16 23°C
09-15 24°C
09-14 26°C
09-13 33°C
09-12 32°C
09-11 31°C
09-10 30°C
09-09 27°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
Environment Canada GEM20.9°19.2°0.74°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS21.3°18.8°0.78°
DWD ICON18.8°17.8°1.03°
NOAA GFS20.4°18.1°1.13°
UK Met Office20.0°17.5°1.30°
JMA GSM20.0°17.8°1.39°
CMA GRAPES17.3°15.7°2.38°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
Environment Canada GEM0.74°-0.50°71%
ECMWF IFS0.78°-0.60°78%
DWD ICON1.03°-1.00°57%
NOAA GFS1.13°-1.00°42%
UK Met Office1.30°-1.24°41%
JMA GSM1.39°-1.29°38%
CMA GRAPES2.38°-2.32°7%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Zvariable 2kt; 10km+; scattered at 4,000ft; scattered at 10,000ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/22Z290° 12kt
becoming23/21Z→23/24ZCAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/07Z→24/10Zscattered at 4,000ft
becoming24/13Z→24/16Z030° 12kt
TAF LTAC 231640Z 2318/2418 VRB02KT 9999 SCT040 SCT100 TEMPO 2318/2322 29012KT BECMG 2321/2324 CAVOK BECMG 2407/2410 SCT040 BECMG 2413/2416 03012KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤13°C0%0%0/66
14°C0%0%0/66
15°C0%0%0/66
16°C0%2%1/66
17°C0%3%2/66
18°C0%6%4/66
19°C100%3%2/66
20°C0%5%3/66
21°C0%2%1/66
22°C0%6%4/66
≥23°C0%74%49/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Atlanta

14:20 local
KATL ↗33.64°, -84.43°sunset 19:33
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 87.1°F p25–p75 86.0°F–88.0°F
typical 16:00 89.1°F p25–p75 88.0°F–90.0°F
noon → peak climb +9.2°F
live obs
79°F
KATL 1820Z
today high so far
79°F
at 14:20
forecast peak
80°F
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 0.56°C
79°F
typical further climb+1.3°
expected maximum80°
KATL 33.64°, -84.43°
observed 14:20 local
usually warmestsunset 19:33
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
65°70°75°80°85°90°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 79°FNOW 79°F
63°68°73°78°83°88°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 79°FNOW 79°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KATL, 8 obs
SPECI KATL 231820Z 07011KT 10SM FEW020 BKN030 BKN060 BKN250 26/20 A3014 RMK AO2 MDT CU SE-SW-NW T02610200
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:20 79° 68° 070/11 BKN030
13:52 77° 68° 080/13 BKN028
12:52 78° 68° 090/07 BKN024
11:52 75° 68° 070/08 OVC038
10:52 75° 68° 080/09 OVC013
10:09 75° 70° 100/08 OVC038
09:52 73° 70° 080/08 OVC018
08:52 72° 70° 060/08 OVC018 -DZ BR
current state
METAR 79°F at 14:20 local, -8.1°F vs 14d-median (87°F this hour) KATL, running behind climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +9.2°F (n=13) — projects to ~88°F @ 16:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.6°F/h, dewpoint stable (68°F→68°F) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (79°F @ 14:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥90°F possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥90°F
Today vs ECMWF: running -8.1°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 79°F, current 79°F @ 14:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
93°F
14d high, 2026 09 18
avg high89.1°F
p25–p7588.0°F – 90.0°F
days ≥90°F3 / 14
days ≥91°F2 / 14
days ≥92°F1 / 14
peak hour
16:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 16:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.6°F med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+7.2°F med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+7.2°F med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+9.2°F med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00+7.6°F med, n=13
today @ 12:0078°F
implied peak87°F vs ecmwf 79°F
heating passport climb to peak 64 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
79° now at 14:00typically +1.3° more (p90 +3.0°)expected peak 80°peak already set on 40% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0071°+13.2°0%
0170°+14.0°2%
0270°+14.6°2%
0369°+15.4°2%
0468°+15.9°2%
0568°+16.3°2%
0668°+16.6°2%
0768°+16.5°2%
0870°+14.0°2%
0973°+11.1°2%
1076°+8.0°3%
1179°+5.6°3%
1281°+3.7°12%
1382°+2.4°25%
1483°+1.3°40%
1583°+0.6°77%
1683°+0.2°95%
1782°+0.1°100%
1881°+0.0°100%
1978°+0.1°100%
2076°+0.1°100%
2174°+0.1°100%
2273°+0.0°100%
2372°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 11kt
SW+4.0°n=28
VARIABLE+3.8°n=14
W+3.0°n=43
S+2.0°n=17
SE+1.5°n=23
NE-0.5°n=35
N-1.3°n=25
NW-1.5°n=79
E-2.2°n=110
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 77°F 72°F 81°F 76°F 79°F
01:00 76°F 73°F 81°F 75°F 78°F
02:00 75°F 71°F 79°F 74°F 77°F
03:00 74°F 73°F 78°F 73°F 75°F
04:00 74°F 72°F 78°F 73°F 75°F
05:00 73°F 71°F 77°F 72°F 75°F
06:00 73°F 70°F 76°F 72°F 74°F
07:00 73°F 70°F 76°F 72°F 74°F
08:00 73°F 70°F 75°F 72°F 74°F
09:00 75°F 71°F 78°F 74°F 77°F
10:00 78°F 72°F 83°F 75°F 80°F
11:00 81°F 74°F 86°F 78°F 83°F
12:00 83°F 74°F 88°F 80°F 85°F
13:00 85°F 76°F 89°F 83°F 87°F
14:00 87°F 81°F 90°F 86°F 88°F
15:00 88°F 81°F 92°F 85°F 89°F
16:00 89°F 75°F 93°F 86°F 90°F
17:00 89°F 72°F 92°F 87°F 90°F
18:00 89°F 75°F 92°F 87°F 89°F
19:00 87°F 75°F 91°F 85°F 89°F
20:00 83°F 74°F 89°F 82°F 84°F
21:00 82°F 75°F 88°F 80°F 83°F
22:00 80°F 72°F 85°F 77°F 81°F
23:00 78°F 72°F 84°F 76°F 80°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 86°F
09-21 90°F
09-20 88°F
09-19 91°F
09-18 93°F
09-17 89°F
09-16 88°F
09-15 90°F
09-14 92°F
09-13 90°F
09-12 84°F
09-11 88°F
09-10 90°F
09-09 89°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS79.9°72.7°1.00°most accurate here
UK Met Office79.2°72.0°1.64°
DWD ICON78.1°72.7°1.72°
ECMWF IFS80.2°75.2°2.11°
CMA GRAPES77.4°72.9°2.16°
Environment Canada GEM75.6°68.7°2.26°
JMA GSM77.9°70.7°4.59°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS1.00°+0.06°86%
UK Met Office1.64°-1.11°62%
DWD ICON1.72°-1.18°64%
ECMWF IFS2.11°-1.66°57%
CMA GRAPES2.16°-1.08°51%
Environment Canada GEM2.26°-1.91°45%
JMA GSM4.59°-4.51°9%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z080° 11kt gusting 18; >6 statute miles; broken at 2,500ft
from24/03Z onwards070° 9kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 1,500ft
from24/06Z onwards080° 9kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 700ft
from24/18Z onwards060° 8kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 1,500ft
TAF KATL 231742Z 2318/2424 08011G18KT P6SM BKN025 FM240300 07009KT P6SM BKN015 FM240600 08009KT P6SM BKN007 FM241800 06008KT P6SM BKN015
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤71°F0%2%1/65
72-73°F0%2%1/65
74-75°F0%8%5/65
76-77°F0%3%2/65
78-79°F40%6%4/65
80-81°F46%11%7/65
82-83°F15%17%11/65
84-85°F1%8%5/65
86-87°F0%8%5/65
88-89°F0%15%10/65
≥90°F0%22%14/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 103% and climatology to 100%.

Austin

12:53 local
KAUS ↗30.19°, -97.67°sunset 19:26
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 91.0°F p25–p75 90.0°F–93.0°F
typical 16:00 99.0°F p25–p75 97.0°F–100.0°F
noon → peak climb +12.6°F
live obs
95°F
KAUS 1753Z
today high so far
95°F
at 12:53
forecast peak
98°F
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 0.59°C
95°F
typical further climb+2.9°
expected maximum98°
KAUS 30.19°, -97.67°
observed 12:53 local
usually warmestsunset 19:26
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
61°69°77°85°93°101°14:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:00ECMWF 97°FNOW 95°F
61°69°77°85°93°101°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 97°FNOW 95°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KAUS, 8 obs
METAR KAUS 231753Z 15011KT 10SM SCT055 SCT080 SCT200 BKN300 35/20 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP159 T03500200 10356 20228 58005 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:53 95° 68° 150/11 BKN300
11:53 92° 69° 140/05 SCT048
10:53 90° 69° 100/05 SCT300
09:53 86° 71° 040/05 SCT300
07:53 75° 70° 000/00 SCT250
06:53 74° 70° 000/00 CLR
05:53 74° 70° 000/00 CLR
04:53 75° 70° 000/00 CLR
current state
METAR 95°F at 12:53 local, +4.0°F vs 14d-median (91°F this hour) KAUS, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +12.6°F (n=14) — projects to ~108°F @ 16:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (69°F→68°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (95°F @ 12:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥100°F possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥100°F
Today vs ECMWF: running +4.0°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 97°F, current 95°F @ 12:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
102°F
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high99.0°F
p25–p7597.0°F – 100.0°F
days ≥100°F6 / 14
days ≥101°F2 / 14
days ≥102°F2 / 14
peak hour
16:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 16:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+9.2°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+11.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+12.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+11.0°F med, n=14
today @ 12:0095°F
implied peak108°F vs ecmwf 97°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
95° now at 13:00typically +2.9° more (p90 +5.0°)expected peak 98°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0075°+20.0°0%
0174°+21.4°0%
0272°+23.0°0%
0371°+23.8°0%
0470°+24.5°0%
0570°+25.3°0%
0669°+25.7°0%
0771°+24.3°0%
0877°+18.1°0%
0982°+13.4°0%
1085°+9.6°0%
1188°+6.7°2%
1290°+4.5°3%
1392°+2.9°3%
1493°+1.4°22%
1594°+0.4°78%
1694°+0.1°98%
1794°+0.0°100%
1891°+0.0°100%
1986°+0.0°100%
2083°+0.1°100%
2181°+0.1°100%
2278°+0.1°100%
2376°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now SE, 11kt
S+5.3°n=114
SW+4.5°n=14
VARIABLE+1.4°n=16
NW+0.5°n=17
CALM-0.5°n=24
SE-0.6°n=39
E-2.1°n=30
NE-4.0°n=61
N-6.6°n=54
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 82°F 78°F 83°F 81°F 83°F
01:00 81°F 77°F 82°F 79°F 81°F
02:00 78°F 75°F 81°F 77°F 80°F
03:00 78°F 73°F 81°F 76°F 80°F
04:00 77°F 72°F 80°F 75°F 78°F
05:00 76°F 72°F 80°F 75°F 78°F
06:00 75°F 71°F 79°F 74°F 78°F
07:00 75°F 71°F 78°F 73°F 77°F
08:00 76°F 74°F 79°F 74°F 78°F
09:00 81°F 75°F 83°F 80°F 82°F
10:00 86°F 83°F 88°F 84°F 87°F
11:00 89°F 86°F 91°F 87°F 90°F
12:00 91°F 89°F 95°F 90°F 93°F
13:00 94°F 92°F 98°F 93°F 95°F
14:00 95°F 94°F 99°F 95°F 96°F
15:00 97°F 94°F 101°F 96°F 99°F
16:00 99°F 96°F 102°F 97°F 100°F
17:00 98°F 96°F 101°F 96°F 99°F
18:00 97°F 94°F 100°F 95°F 98°F
19:00 93°F 84°F 97°F 92°F 96°F
20:00 90°F 82°F 94°F 89°F 91°F
21:00 87°F 79°F 91°F 85°F 89°F
22:00 86°F 80°F 88°F 85°F 88°F
23:00 84°F 80°F 86°F 83°F 85°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 99°F
09-21 99°F
09-20 96°F
09-19 97°F
09-18 97°F
09-17 96°F
09-16 99°F
09-15 102°F
09-14 101°F
09-13 100°F
09-12 100°F
09-11 102°F
09-10 100°F
09-09 99°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS97.5°95.4°1.06°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM96.8°94.8°1.37°
DWD ICON97.3°97.7°1.38°
UK Met Office95.9°93.0°1.42°
ECMWF IFS96.4°94.1°2.12°
CMA GRAPES92.3°90.9°2.79°
JMA GSM89.6°90.1°4.71°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS1.06°-0.76°83%
Environment Canada GEM1.37°-0.88°72%
DWD ICON1.38°-0.37°74%
UK Met Office1.42°-1.02°74%
ECMWF IFS2.12°-1.84°53%
CMA GRAPES2.79°-2.38°36%
JMA GSM4.71°-4.49°9%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z100° 7kt; >6 statute miles; few at 4,000ft
from24/08Z onwardsvariable 2kt; >6 statute miles; few at 2,500ft
from24/14Z onwards120° 8kt; >6 statute miles; few at 4,000ft
TAF KAUS 231720Z 2318/2424 10007KT P6SM FEW040 FM240800 VRB02KT P6SM FEW025 FM241400 12008KT P6SM FEW040
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤89°F0%6%4/65
90-91°F0%9%6/65
92-93°F0%9%6/65
94-95°F4%25%16/65
96-97°F36%31%20/65
98-99°F50%15%10/65
100-101°F8%3%2/65
102-103°F0%2%1/65
104-105°F0%0%0/65
106-107°F0%0%0/65
≥108°F0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 98% and climatology to 100%.

Beijing

02:00 local
ZBAA ↗40.08°, 116.60°sunset 18:09
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 18.0°C p25–p75 16.0°C–20.0°C
typical 13:00 31.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–31.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
22°C
ZBAA 1800Z
today high so far
23°C
at 01:30
forecast peak
27°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 1.02°C
22°C
typical further climb+10.6°
expected maximum33°
ZBAA 40.08°, 116.60°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:09
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
12°16°20°24°28°32°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 22°C
12°16°20°24°28°32°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 22°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZBAA, 8 obs
METAR ZBAA 231800Z VRB01MPS 6000 NSC 22/19 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 22° 19° NSC
01:30 23° 19° 080/04 NSC
01:00 23° 19° 080/04 NSC
00:30 23° 20° 080/04 NSC
00:00 23° 20° 070/04 NSC
23:30 23° 20° 080/02 NSC
23:00 23° 20° 080/04 NSC
22:30 22° 20° CAVOK
current state
METAR 22°C at 02:00 local, +4.0°C vs 14d-median (18°C this hour) ZBAA, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~23°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint falling (19°C→19°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (22°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥32°C possible 14d records show 1/14 days reached ≥32°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +4.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 24°C, current 22°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
32°C
14d high, 2026 09 11
avg high31.0°C
p25–p7528.0°C – 31.0°C
days ≥32°C1 / 14
days ≥33°C0 / 14
days ≥34°C0 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~29°C (clim) vs ecmwf 24°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
22° now at 02:00typically +10.6° more (p90 +15.0°)expected peak 33°peak already set on 2% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0017°+9.7°0%
0117°+10.0°0%
0216°+10.6°2%
0316°+11.0°2%
0416°+11.2°2%
0515°+11.5°2%
0615°+11.7°2%
0716°+10.4°2%
0819°+7.6°2%
0921°+5.8°2%
1022°+4.3°2%
1124°+2.9°3%
1225°+1.8°17%
1326°+1.0°39%
1426°+0.4°69%
1526°+0.2°88%
1626°+0.0°100%
1725°+0.0°100%
1822°+0.1°100%
1920°+0.4°100%
2019°+0.3°100%
2118°+0.2°100%
2218°+0.2°100%
2317°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
W+1.5°n=22
SW+1.1°n=11
VARIABLE+0.4°n=36
S+0.3°n=31
NW+0.1°n=62
SE+0.1°n=31
N-0.9°n=59
NE-1.8°n=13
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 19°C 13°C 23°C 16°C 20°C
01:00 19°C 13°C 22°C 15°C 19°C
02:00 18°C 12°C 22°C 16°C 20°C
03:00 18°C 13°C 22°C 15°C 19°C
04:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
05:00 16°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
06:00 16°C 12°C 20°C 13°C 17°C
07:00 18°C 15°C 21°C 16°C 18°C
08:00 20°C 18°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
09:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 22°C 23°C
10:00 25°C 23°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
11:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 25°C 27°C
12:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
13:00 28°C 25°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
14:00 30°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
15:00 30°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 31°C
16:00 30°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
17:00 29°C 25°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
18:00 26°C 23°C 28°C 25°C 27°C
19:00 24°C 18°C 26°C 22°C 24°C
20:00 21°C 15°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
21:00 20°C 15°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
22:00 21°C 14°C 23°C 19°C 22°C
23:00 20°C 14°C 23°C 17°C 22°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 30°C
09-21 30°C
09-20 29°C
09-19 28°C
09-18 28°C
09-17 31°C
09-16 30°C
09-15 28°C
09-14 26°C
09-13 30°C
09-12 28°C
09-11 32°C
09-10 31°C
09-09 27°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office27.1°23.3°1.02°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS24.3°24.3°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM23.9°25.1°1.15°
CMA GRAPES22.1°21.9°1.19°
JMA GSM24.5°25.5°1.19°
DWD ICON22.1°21.4°1.21°
NOAA GFS27.5°21.6°1.49°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office1.02°-0.67°59%
ECMWF IFS1.09°-0.61°58%
Environment Canada GEM1.15°+0.08°54%
CMA GRAPES1.19°-0.75°50%
JMA GSM1.19°-0.44°51%
DWD ICON1.21°-1.07°53%
NOAA GFS1.49°+0.46°42%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max25°at 24/06Zmin 17°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z080° 3mps; 3500m; mist; no significant cloud
temporarily24/05Z→24/09Z2800m; light showers rain; mist; few at 3,000ft (CB); broken at 4,000ft
becoming24/14Z→24/15Z2800m; light showers rain; mist
TAF ZBAA 231503Z 2318/2424 08003MPS 3500 BR NSC TX25/2406Z TN17/2321Z TN17/2421Z TEMPO 2405/2409 2800 -SHRA BR FEW030CB BKN040 BECMG 2414/2415 2800 -SHRA BR
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤21°C0%3%2/65
22°C0%6%4/65
23°C52%2%1/65
24°C22%8%5/65
25°C14%8%5/65
26°C7%17%11/65
27°C4%9%6/65
28°C2%17%11/65
29°C0%20%13/65
30°C0%8%5/65
≥31°C0%3%2/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Buenos Aires

15:00 local
SAEZ ↗-34.82°, -58.54°sunset 18:51
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 19.0°C p25–p75 14.0°C–23.0°C
typical 12:00 19.0°C p25–p75 14.0°C–24.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
20°C
SAEZ 1800Z
today high so far
20°C
at 15:00
forecast peak
18°C
ECMWF IFS most accurate here, MAE 0.79°C
20°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
SAEZ -34.82°, -58.54°
observed 15:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:51
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°15°20°25°16:0019:0022:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 20°C
10°15°20°25°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 20°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR SAEZ, 8 obs
METAR SAEZ 231800Z 36012KT CAVOK 20/03 Q1013 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
15:00 20° 360/12 CAVOK
14:00 19° 020/12 CAVOK
13:00 17° 010/13 CAVOK
12:00 16° 010/12 CAVOK
11:00 13° 360/14 CAVOK
10:00 12° 360/13 CAVOK
09:00 10° 010/11 CAVOK
08:00 360/10 CAVOK
current state
METAR 20°C at 15:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (14°C–23°C) SAEZ, tracking climatology
Peak hour 12:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 20°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (4°C→3°C) drying — accelerates warming
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 18°C, current 20°C @ 15:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
26°C
14d high, 2026 09 17
avg high19.0°C
p25–p7514.0°C – 24.0°C
days ≥20°C6 / 14
days ≥21°C5 / 14
days ≥22°C4 / 14
peak hour
12:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 12:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=13
today @ 12:0016°C
implied peakvs ecmwf 18°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
20° now at 15:00peak already set on 92% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0013°+8.0°3%
0113°+8.5°3%
0212°+9.1°2%
0312°+9.5°2%
0411°+9.7°2%
0511°+10.0°2%
0611°+10.0°2%
0711°+10.2°2%
0813°+8.2°2%
0915°+5.8°3%
1017°+4.1°3%
1118°+2.7°9%
1219°+1.6°17%
1320°+1.1°35%
1420°+0.5°62%
1521°+0.1°92%
1620°+0.1°100%
1720°+0.0°100%
1819°+0.0°100%
1918°+0.0°100%
2016°+0.1°100%
2115°+0.1°100%
2214°+0.1°100%
2313°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 12kt
N+2.9°n=37
NW+2.2°n=26
NE+1.7°n=96
VARIABLE+1.6°n=12
W+0.5°n=32
E-1.2°n=67
SW-1.4°n=30
S-2.8°n=48
SE-3.0°n=35
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 12°C 2°C 16°C 7°C 14°C
01:00 11°C 0°C 16°C 5°C 14°C
02:00 11°C -1°C 16°C 6°C 13°C
03:00 11°C -1°C 17°C 5°C 12°C
04:00 11°C -1°C 17°C 5°C 11°C
05:00 10°C -2°C 15°C 4°C 11°C
06:00 10°C -1°C 15°C 4°C 11°C
07:00 9°C -3°C 16°C 3°C 11°C
08:00 11°C -1°C 17°C 5°C 13°C
09:00 13°C 2°C 19°C 8°C 16°C
10:00 14°C 8°C 21°C 10°C 20°C
11:00 15°C 8°C 24°C 12°C 21°C
12:00 18°C 8°C 25°C 13°C 24°C
13:00 18°C 8°C 25°C 13°C 24°C
14:00 19°C 7°C 25°C 14°C 24°C
15:00 19°C 8°C 25°C 14°C 23°C
16:00 17°C 8°C 26°C 14°C 21°C
17:00 16°C 9°C 25°C 14°C 20°C
18:00 15°C 8°C 23°C 13°C 20°C
19:00 14°C 8°C 22°C 11°C 18°C
20:00 14°C 6°C 20°C 10°C 16°C
21:00 11°C 6°C 19°C 10°C 15°C
22:00 12°C 4°C 18°C 8°C 15°C
23:00 12°C 4°C 18°C 8°C 15°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 14°C
09-21 16°C
09-20 25°C
09-19 25°C
09-18 24°C
09-17 26°C
09-16 14°C
09-15 19°C
09-14 16°C
09-13 13°C
09-12 12°C
09-11 19°C
09-10 21°C
09-09 20°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
ECMWF IFS18.5°24.3°0.79°most accurate here
UK Met Office18.3°24.0°1.01°
DWD ICON18.0°24.3°1.03°
CMA GRAPES17.3°21.0°1.06°
Environment Canada GEM18.1°25.2°1.20°
NOAA GFS18.2°23.7°1.22°
JMA GSM18.4°22.7°1.56°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
ECMWF IFS0.79°-0.45°75%
UK Met Office1.01°-0.47°53%
DWD ICON1.03°-0.85°55%
CMA GRAPES1.06°-0.49°55%
Environment Canada GEM1.20°+0.06°49%
NOAA GFS1.22°-0.74°46%
JMA GSM1.56°-1.15°38%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max24°at 24/18Zmin 11°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z360° 10kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/00Z→24/03Z360° 5kt
becoming24/12Z→24/15Z360° 10kt
TAF SAEZ 231700Z 2318/2418 36010KT CAVOK TX24/2418Z TN11/2409Z BECMG 2400/2403 36005KT BECMG 2412/2415 36010KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤12°C0%2%1/66
13°C0%0%0/66
14°C0%2%1/66
15°C0%3%2/66
16°C0%5%3/66
17°C0%6%4/66
18°C0%14%9/66
19°C0%5%3/66
20°C94%8%5/66
21°C4%12%8/66
≥22°C0%45%30/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.

Busan

03:00 local
RKPK ↗35.18°, 128.94°sunset 18:19
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–22.0°C
typical 13:00 28.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–29.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
19°C
RKPK 1800Z
today high so far
23°C
at 21:00
forecast peak
30°C
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 0.83°C
19°C
typical further climb+6.7°
expected maximum26°
RKPK 35.18°, 128.94°
observed 03:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:19
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
12°16°20°24°28°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 19°C
12°16°20°24°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 19°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RKPK, 8 obs
METAR RKPK 231800Z 02001KT CAVOK 19/16 Q1017
local temp dew wind cloud wx
03:00 19° 16° 020/01 CAVOK
02:00 19° 16° 030/02 CAVOK
01:00 19° 16° 350/03 CAVOK
00:00 20° 16° 030/03 CAVOK
23:00 20° 16° 010/03 CAVOK
22:00 22° 16° 040/03 CAVOK
21:00 23° 16° 050/02 CAVOK
20:00 23° 16° 140/06 BKN200
current state
METAR 19°C at 03:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (19°C–22°C) RKPK, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~20°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (16°C→16°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (19°C @ 03:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥29°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥29°C
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 30°C, current 19°C @ 03:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
31°C
14d high, 2026 09 14
avg high28.0°C
p25–p7528.0°C – 29.0°C
days ≥29°C6 / 14
days ≥30°C3 / 14
days ≥31°C1 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 03:00)
implied peak~28°C (clim) vs ecmwf 30°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
19° now at 03:00typically +6.7° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 26°peak already set on 5% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0022°+5.8°5%
0121°+6.2°5%
0221°+6.4°5%
0321°+6.7°5%
0420°+6.9°5%
0520°+7.0°5%
0620°+7.2°5%
0720°+6.9°5%
0822°+5.7°5%
0923°+4.3°8%
1024°+3.0°11%
1125°+1.8°18%
1226°+1.1°43%
1326°+0.6°68%
1427°+0.2°91%
1526°+0.2°97%
1626°+0.1°100%
1725°+0.0°100%
1824°+0.1°100%
1923°+0.1°100%
2023°+0.1°100%
2122°+0.1°100%
2222°+0.1°100%
2322°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 1kt
S+2.7°n=19
SW+1.8°n=38
E+1.4°n=12
VARIABLE+1.3°n=27
W+0.9°n=12
NE-0.3°n=111
N-0.7°n=39
NW-1.1°n=110
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 21°C 20°C 23°C 21°C 23°C
01:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
02:00 22°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
03:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
04:00 20°C 18°C 24°C 18°C 21°C
05:00 19°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
06:00 20°C 17°C 24°C 18°C 21°C
07:00 20°C 18°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
08:00 22°C 18°C 24°C 21°C 23°C
09:00 24°C 21°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
10:00 25°C 21°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
11:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
12:00 27°C 24°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
13:00 28°C 24°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
14:00 28°C 25°C 31°C 28°C 29°C
15:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
16:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
17:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 27°C
18:00 26°C 24°C 28°C 25°C 26°C
19:00 24°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
20:00 24°C 22°C 25°C 23°C 25°C
21:00 23°C 22°C 25°C 22°C 24°C
22:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 24°C
23:00 22°C 20°C 24°C 21°C 23°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 28°C
09-21 28°C
09-20 28°C
09-19 28°C
09-18 27°C
09-17 28°C
09-16 29°C
09-15 29°C
09-14 31°C
09-13 30°C
09-12 30°C
09-11 29°C
09-10 27°C
09-09 26°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS29.7°24.0°0.83°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM30.2°26.9°0.96°
ECMWF IFS29.9°24.6°1.14°
UK Met Office27.8°26.3°1.20°
DWD ICON27.7°25.2°2.34°
CMA GRAPES27.0°25.8°2.37°
JMA GSM25.5°24.0°4.74°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS0.83°-0.01°72%
Environment Canada GEM0.96°-0.50°58%
ECMWF IFS1.14°-0.29°62%
UK Met Office1.20°-0.85°49%
DWD ICON2.34°-2.27°12%
CMA GRAPES2.37°-2.27°13%
JMA GSM4.74°-4.68°3%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max29°at 24/06Zmin 16°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z030° 6kt; 10km+; scattered at 3,000ft; scattered at 20,000ft
becoming24/04Z→24/05Z210° 8kt
becoming24/09Z→24/10Z030° 6kt
TAF RKPK 231700Z 2318/2424 03006KT 9999 SCT030 SCT200 TN16/2320Z TX29/2406Z BECMG 2404/2405 21008KT BECMG 2409/2410 03006KT
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤25°C0%25%16/65
26°C0%17%11/65
27°C2%12%8/65
28°C2%17%11/65
29°C33%14%9/65
30°C56%6%4/65
31°C10%2%1/65
32°C1%3%2/65
33°C0%0%0/65
34°C0%5%3/65
≥35°C0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Cape Town

20:00 local
FACT ↗-33.96°, 18.60°sunset 18:42
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 16.0°C p25–p75 15.0°C–17.0°C
typical 13:00 22.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–25.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
17°C
FACT 1800Z
today high so far
19°C
at 14:00
forecast peak
25°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.73°C
17°C
left to climb+0.2°
peakalready set
FACT -33.96°, 18.60°
observed 20:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:42
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
12°15°18°21°24°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 21°CNOW 17°C
12°16°20°24°28°32°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 21°CNOW 17°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR FACT, 8 obs
METAR FACT 231800Z 23010KT 9999 FEW010 17/15 Q1019 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:00 17° 15° 230/10 FEW010
19:00 16° 15° 220/12 FEW010
18:00 16° 14° 210/10 BKN008
17:00 17° 14° 190/12 BKN008
16:27 17° 14° 200/13 BKN008
16:00 18° 14° 200/14 BKN015
15:00 18° 14° 210/07 BKN015
14:00 19° 14° 170/11 BKN015
current state
METAR 17°C at 20:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (15°C–17°C) FACT, tracking climatology
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 20°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (15°C→15°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 21°C, current 17°C @ 20:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
32°C
14d high, 2026 09 22
avg high22.0°C
p25–p7519.0°C – 25.0°C
days ≥23°C6 / 14
days ≥24°C5 / 14
days ≥25°C4 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 21°C
heating passport climb to peak 63 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
17° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0013°+6.6°0%
0113°+7.0°0%
0213°+7.2°0%
0312°+7.5°0%
0412°+7.7°0%
0512°+7.8°2%
0612°+8.0°2%
0712°+8.2°0%
0813°+6.4°0%
0915°+4.5°2%
1017°+3.0°3%
1118°+1.9°8%
1219°+1.2°28%
1319°+0.4°69%
1419°+0.4°85%
1519°+0.1°98%
1619°+0.0°98%
1718°+0.0°100%
1817°+0.0°100%
1915°+0.1°100%
2015°+0.2°100%
2114°+0.1°100%
2214°+0.1°100%
2313°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now SW, 10kt
SE+2.2°n=20
VARIABLE+1.1°n=13
SW+0.9°n=42
S+0.0°n=192
N-0.3°n=19
NW-1.1°n=80
W-1.9°n=10
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 15°C 12°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
01:00 15°C 12°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
02:00 15°C 12°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
03:00 14°C 11°C 17°C 13°C 15°C
04:00 14°C 11°C 17°C 13°C 15°C
05:00 15°C 11°C 20°C 13°C 15°C
06:00 15°C 12°C 19°C 13°C 16°C
07:00 15°C 11°C 20°C 13°C 15°C
08:00 15°C 12°C 23°C 14°C 16°C
09:00 16°C 15°C 27°C 15°C 17°C
10:00 17°C 16°C 29°C 16°C 20°C
11:00 18°C 16°C 31°C 17°C 22°C
12:00 20°C 16°C 32°C 18°C 23°C
13:00 21°C 17°C 32°C 18°C 24°C
14:00 21°C 17°C 26°C 18°C 23°C
15:00 22°C 16°C 26°C 17°C 23°C
16:00 21°C 17°C 26°C 18°C 23°C
17:00 19°C 16°C 25°C 17°C 21°C
18:00 18°C 15°C 25°C 17°C 19°C
19:00 17°C 14°C 22°C 15°C 18°C
20:00 16°C 14°C 20°C 15°C 17°C
21:00 15°C 13°C 20°C 15°C 17°C
22:00 15°C 13°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
23:00 15°C 13°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 32°C
09-21 27°C
09-20 26°C
09-19 23°C
09-18 22°C
09-17 19°C
09-16 18°C
09-15 18°C
09-14 18°C
09-13 25°C
09-12 19°C
09-11 24°C
09-10 19°C
09-09 17°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by6.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office25.2°23.8°0.73°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS21.2°22.3°0.94°
Environment Canada GEM23.6°25.8°1.01°
DWD ICON19.9°23.7°1.08°
NOAA GFS21.9°25.8°1.25°
CMA GRAPES21.6°25.1°1.34°
JMA GSM18.8°20.1°2.31°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.73°-0.12°74%
ECMWF IFS0.94°-0.33°64%
Environment Canada GEM1.01°+0.88°68%
DWD ICON1.08°-0.02°58%
NOAA GFS1.25°+0.59°61%
CMA GRAPES1.34°-0.63°57%
JMA GSM2.31°-2.13°21%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max24°at 24/12Zmin 15°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z180° 7kt; 10km+; broken at 800ft
becoming23/22Z→23/24Z350° 8kt
becoming23/22Z→23/24Z500m; fog; broken at 300ft
becoming24/06Z→24/08Z2000m; mist; broken at 800ft
from24/09Z onwards180° 10kt; 10km+; broken at 1,000ft
becoming24/15Z→24/17Zbroken at 400ft
from24/21Z onwards360° 8kt; 10km+; broken at 400ft
TAF FACT 231600Z 2318/2424 18007KT 9999 BKN008 TX24/2412Z TN15/2406Z BECMG 2322/2324 35008KT BECMG 2322/2324 0500 FG BKN003 BECMG 2406/2408 2000 BR BKN008 FM240900 18010KT 9999 BKN010 BECMG 2415/2417 BKN004 FM242100 36008KT 9999 BKN004
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤17°C0%32%21/66
18°C0%12%8/66
19°C0%12%8/66
20°C100%15%10/66
21°C0%5%3/66
22°C0%2%1/66
23°C0%9%6/66
24°C0%5%3/66
25°C0%2%1/66
26°C0%3%2/66
≥27°C0%5%3/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Chengdu

02:00 local
ZUUU ↗30.58°, 103.95°sunset 18:59
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–21.0°C
typical 15:00 26.0°C p25–p75 23.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
live obs
22°C
ZUUU 1800Z
today high so far
25°C
at 19:00
forecast peak
23°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 1.21°C
22°C
typical further climb+4.8°
expected maximum27°
ZUUU 30.58°, 103.95°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:59
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
17°19°21°23°25°27°29°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 22°C
17°19°21°23°25°27°29°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 22°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZUUU, 8 obs
METAR ZUUU 231800Z VRB01MPS 7000 SCT040 22/21 Q1014 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 22° 21° SCT040
01:00 22° 21° SCT040
00:00 21° 21° 040/08 SCT026+TCU
23:00 21° 21° 360/08 SCT026+TCU -SHRA BR
22:00 22° 22° 350/06 SCT026+TCU -SHRA BR
21:00 23° 22° 050/08 SCT026 -SHRA BR
20:00 23° 22° 350/06 SCT033+TCU -SHRA
19:00 25° 20° 360/04 SCT033
current state
METAR 22°C at 02:00 local, +1.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) ZUUU, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~24°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (21°C→21°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (22°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥27°C possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥27°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 24°C, current 22°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
29°C
14d high, 2026 09 21
avg high26.0°C
p25–p7523.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥27°C3 / 14
days ≥28°C1 / 14
days ≥29°C1 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~25°C (clim) vs ecmwf 24°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
22° now at 02:00typically +4.8° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 27°peak already set on 11% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0022°+4.0°11%
0122°+4.5°11%
0222°+4.8°11%
0321°+5.1°11%
0421°+5.3°11%
0521°+5.4°11%
0621°+5.5°11%
0721°+5.4°11%
0822°+4.8°12%
0922°+4.1°12%
1023°+3.4°12%
1124°+2.4°14%
1225°+1.8°17%
1325°+1.2°30%
1426°+0.7°47%
1526°+0.4°73%
1626°+0.2°92%
1726°+0.0°100%
1825°+0.0°100%
1924°+0.0°100%
2024°+0.1°100%
2123°+0.1°100%
2223°+0.0°100%
2323°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
S+2.0°n=28
VARIABLE+0.8°n=12
W-0.4°n=10
NW-0.6°n=15
SW-0.7°n=30
N-0.9°n=80
NE-1.6°n=52
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
01:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
02:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
03:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
04:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
05:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
06:00 20°C 18°C 21°C 18°C 21°C
07:00 20°C 18°C 21°C 19°C 21°C
08:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
09:00 21°C 19°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
10:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
11:00 21°C 20°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
12:00 23°C 20°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
13:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 22°C 25°C
14:00 23°C 21°C 27°C 22°C 25°C
15:00 24°C 20°C 28°C 23°C 26°C
16:00 25°C 20°C 28°C 23°C 26°C
17:00 26°C 20°C 27°C 23°C 26°C
18:00 25°C 20°C 27°C 22°C 26°C
19:00 24°C 20°C 26°C 21°C 25°C
20:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
22:00 22°C 19°C 24°C 21°C 22°C
23:00 22°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 26°C
09-21 29°C
09-20 27°C
09-19 23°C
09-18 24°C
09-17 26°C
09-16 26°C
09-15 21°C
09-14 22°C
09-13 26°C
09-12 22°C
09-11 23°C
09-10 23°C
09-09 27°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON22.8°27.1°1.21°most accurate here
UK Met Office26.9°29.3°1.34°
CMA GRAPES24.3°25.2°1.50°
Environment Canada GEM24.3°26.9°1.65°
ECMWF IFS25.4°27.7°1.91°
NOAA GFS21.8°24.2°2.29°
JMA GSM26.3°28.1°2.39°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON1.21°-0.51°51%
UK Met Office1.34°-0.60°47%
CMA GRAPES1.50°-1.25°37%
Environment Canada GEM1.65°-1.11°43%
ECMWF IFS1.91°-1.53°38%
NOAA GFS2.29°-2.01°22%
JMA GSM2.39°-1.91°29%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max26°at 24/07Zmin 21°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z360° 3mps; 6000m; few at 1,100ft; scattered at 3,000ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/24Zlight showers rain
TAF ZUUU 231502Z 2318/2418 36003MPS 6000 FEW011 SCT030 TX26/2407Z TN21/2322Z TEMPO 2318/2324 -SHRA
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤21°C0%5%3/65
22°C1%2%1/65
23°C4%15%10/65
24°C20%15%10/65
25°C29%9%6/65
26°C26%11%7/65
27°C13%11%7/65
28°C4%5%3/65
29°C2%6%4/65
30°C0%8%5/65
≥31°C0%14%9/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.

Chicago

12:51 local
KORD ↗41.97°, -87.91°sunset 18:48
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 73.9°F p25–p75 66.0°F–75.0°F
typical 15:00 73.9°F p25–p75 69.1°F–79.0°F
noon → peak climb +3.6°F
live obs
66°F
KORD 1751Z
today high so far
66°F
at 12:51
forecast peak
65°F
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.77°C
66°F
left to climb+1.1°
peakalready set
KORD 41.97°, -87.91°
observed 12:51 local
usually warmestsunset 18:48
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
45°52°59°66°73°80°14:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:00ECMWF 66°FNOW 66°F
45°52°59°66°73°80°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 66°FNOW 66°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KORD, 8 obs
METAR KORD 231751Z 06014KT 10SM FEW025 BKN050 19/12 A3036 RMK AO2 SLP280 T01890122 10189 20156 58003
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:51 66° 54° 060/14 BKN050
11:51 66° 54° 060/10 BKN055
10:51 64° 54° 060/08 BKN055
10:33 64° 55° 050/09 BKN050
09:51 63° 55° 060/09 BKN025
09:49 63° 55° 070/09 BKN025
09:21 62° 54° 060/09 BKN048
08:51 61° 54° 070/08 BKN026
current state
METAR 66°F at 12:51 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (66°F–75°F) KORD, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +3.6°F (n=14) — projects to ~70°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°F/h, dewpoint falling (54°F→54°F) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (66°F @ 12:51) with climatology suggests peak ≥75°F possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥75°F
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.9°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 66°F, current 66°F @ 12:51
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
87°F
14d high, 2026 09 12
avg high73.9°F
p25–p7569.1°F – 79.0°F
days ≥75°F7 / 14
days ≥76°F7 / 14
days ≥77°F6 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+3.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°F med, n=14
today @ 12:0066°F
implied peak70°F vs ecmwf 66°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
66° now at 13:00peak already set on 52% of days by nowtypically only +1.1° left (p90 +2.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0065°+11.2°5%
0165°+11.8°5%
0264°+12.6°5%
0363°+13.2°5%
0463°+13.6°5%
0562°+13.9°5%
0662°+14.1°5%
0764°+12.3°5%
0866°+9.9°5%
0969°+7.3°6%
1071°+5.0°11%
1173°+3.0°15%
1275°+1.8°31%
1375°+1.1°52%
1475°+0.6°78%
1575°+0.2°94%
1674°+0.1°98%
1773°+0.1°98%
1870°+0.2°98%
1969°+0.2°98%
2068°+0.2°100%
2167°+0.2°100%
2266°+0.1°100%
2366°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NE, 14kt
S+6.0°n=66
SW+4.3°n=81
SE+3.3°n=21
E-0.9°n=41
NE-2.2°n=38
W-5.0°n=49
NW-5.6°n=45
N-7.7°n=29
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 68°F 56°F 73°F 63°F 70°F
01:00 69°F 55°F 71°F 63°F 70°F
02:00 68°F 54°F 71°F 61°F 69°F
03:00 66°F 53°F 70°F 61°F 68°F
04:00 67°F 53°F 69°F 61°F 68°F
05:00 66°F 53°F 70°F 61°F 67°F
06:00 65°F 54°F 69°F 60°F 66°F
07:00 65°F 55°F 68°F 61°F 66°F
08:00 65°F 57°F 70°F 61°F 67°F
09:00 67°F 58°F 74°F 63°F 69°F
10:00 69°F 59°F 79°F 64°F 70°F
11:00 70°F 60°F 81°F 65°F 73°F
12:00 74°F 61°F 84°F 66°F 75°F
13:00 75°F 60°F 86°F 67°F 77°F
14:00 74°F 61°F 87°F 68°F 78°F
15:00 71°F 60°F 86°F 65°F 79°F
16:00 71°F 61°F 87°F 64°F 79°F
17:00 71°F 61°F 85°F 64°F 78°F
18:00 70°F 61°F 84°F 64°F 78°F
19:00 69°F 61°F 85°F 62°F 75°F
20:00 69°F 61°F 79°F 63°F 73°F
21:00 68°F 60°F 76°F 63°F 72°F
22:00 68°F 58°F 74°F 62°F 70°F
23:00 68°F 57°F 73°F 62°F 71°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 62°F
09-21 66°F
09-20 69°F
09-19 70°F
09-18 71°F
09-17 79°F
09-16 76°F
09-15 84°F
09-14 70°F
09-13 74°F
09-12 87°F
09-11 82°F
09-10 77°F
09-09 79°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON65.5°66.4°1.38°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS63.7°65.7°1.47°
NOAA GFS62.6°66.6°1.64°
Environment Canada GEM67.6°69.6°1.89°
JMA GSM65.5°67.5°2.05°
UK Met Office64.4°67.5°2.11°
CMA GRAPES66.2°69.1°2.27°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON1.38°+0.47°76%
ECMWF IFS1.47°-0.10°75%
NOAA GFS1.64°+1.08°72%
Environment Canada GEM1.89°+1.48°59%
JMA GSM2.05°-0.12°55%
UK Met Office2.11°+1.15°61%
CMA GRAPES2.27°-0.42°50%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z050° 12kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 5,000ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/22Zbroken at 2,500ft; overcast at 3,500ft
from24/02Z onwards080° 7kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 5,000ft
TAF KORD 231724Z 2318/2424 05012KT P6SM SCT025 BKN050 TEMPO 2318/2322 BKN025 OVC035 FM240200 08007KT P6SM SCT025 BKN050
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤55°F0%0%0/65
56-57°F0%0%0/65
58-59°F0%3%2/65
60-61°F0%0%0/65
62-63°F0%6%4/65
64-65°F0%3%2/65
66-67°F84%5%3/65
68-69°F17%5%3/65
70-71°F0%8%5/65
72-73°F0%9%6/65
≥74°F0%62%40/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Chongqing

02:00 local
ZUCK ↗29.72°, 106.64°sunset 18:48
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–22.0°C
typical 12:00 24.0°C p25–p75 22.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
23°C
ZUCK 1800Z
today high so far
24°C
at 20:00
forecast peak
26°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 1.03°C
23°C
typical further climb+4.4°
expected maximum27°
ZUCK 29.72°, 106.64°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:48
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
19°21°23°25°27°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 27°CNOW 23°C
19°21°23°25°27°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 27°CNOW 23°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZUCK, 8 obs
METAR ZUCK 231800Z 04003MPS 9999 OVC050 23/22 Q1013 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 23° 22° 040/06 OVC050
01:00 23° 21° 030/10 OVC050
00:00 23° 22° 020/10 OVC046
23:00 23° 22° 030/10 SCT023
22:00 23° 22° 020/10 SCT033
21:00 23° 22° 030/12 FEW033
20:00 24° 22° 020/10 BKN033
19:00 24° 21° 020/10 BKN033
current state
METAR 23°C at 02:00 local, +2.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) ZUCK, running ahead of climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (21°C→22°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (23°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥25°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥25°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 27°C, current 23°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
36°C
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high24.0°C
p25–p7522.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥25°C6 / 14
days ≥26°C5 / 14
days ≥27°C4 / 14
peak hour
12:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 12:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 27°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
23° now at 02:00typically +4.4° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 27°peak already set on 15% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0024°+4.0°14%
0124°+4.2°15%
0223°+4.4°15%
0323°+4.7°15%
0423°+5.0°15%
0523°+5.1°15%
0622°+5.3°15%
0723°+5.2°15%
0823°+4.8°15%
0924°+4.1°15%
1024°+3.3°15%
1125°+2.6°15%
1226°+1.6°31%
1327°+1.2°41%
1427°+0.5°67%
1527°+0.2°89%
1627°+0.1°100%
1727°+0.0°100%
1826°+0.0°100%
1925°+0.0°100%
2025°+0.0°100%
2125°+0.0°100%
2224°+0.1°100%
2324°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NE, 6kt
SE+3.4°n=55
E+1.1°n=35
SW+0.3°n=13
S+0.0°n=35
VARIABLE-0.3°n=38
N-1.9°n=27
W-2.0°n=30
NE-2.0°n=52
NW-2.4°n=24
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 20°C 23°C
01:00 21°C 19°C 28°C 20°C 22°C
02:00 21°C 19°C 28°C 20°C 22°C
03:00 21°C 19°C 26°C 20°C 22°C
04:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 21°C
05:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 21°C
06:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 21°C
07:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 20°C 21°C
08:00 20°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 21°C
09:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
10:00 21°C 20°C 24°C 21°C 23°C
11:00 22°C 20°C 24°C 21°C 23°C
12:00 22°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
13:00 22°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
14:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 22°C 25°C
15:00 23°C 20°C 29°C 21°C 25°C
16:00 23°C 20°C 29°C 21°C 25°C
17:00 23°C 20°C 28°C 21°C 25°C
18:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
19:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 21°C 24°C
20:00 22°C 20°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 20°C 24°C 21°C 23°C
22:00 22°C 20°C 23°C 21°C 23°C
23:00 21°C 20°C 23°C 21°C 22°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 22°C
09-21 24°C
09-20 25°C
09-19 26°C
09-18 22°C
09-17 21°C
09-16 20°C
09-15 21°C
09-14 23°C
09-13 27°C
09-12 29°C
09-11 24°C
09-10 30°C
09-09 36°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON26.0°28.4°1.03°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM26.2°27.5°1.35°
CMA GRAPES26.7°27.5°1.41°
ECMWF IFS28.7°29.5°2.00°
UK Met Office27.2°28.0°2.16°
NOAA GFS26.6°25.9°2.26°
JMA GSM27.7°29.6°2.41°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON1.03°-0.89°61%
Environment Canada GEM1.35°-1.06°51%
CMA GRAPES1.41°-1.14°37%
ECMWF IFS2.00°-1.87°16%
UK Met Office2.16°-2.05°16%
NOAA GFS2.26°-2.13°18%
JMA GSM2.41°-2.22°22%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max25°at 24/07Zmin 20°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z030° 3mps; 6000m; scattered at 1,200ft; overcast at 3,000ft
TAF ZUCK 231503Z 2318/2418 03003MPS 6000 SCT012 OVC030 TX25/2407Z TN20/2322Z
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤21°C0%12%8/65
22°C0%11%7/65
23°C1%6%4/65
24°C2%8%5/65
25°C7%8%5/65
26°C18%5%3/65
27°C30%5%3/65
28°C26%5%3/65
29°C16%2%1/65
30°C4%2%1/65
≥31°C1%38%25/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

Dallas

12:53 local
KDAL ↗32.85°, -96.85°sunset 19:23
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 91.9°F p25–p75 91.9°F–93.0°F
typical 15:00 99.0°F p25–p75 97.0°F–99.0°F
noon → peak climb +11.0°F
live obs
94°F
KDAL 1753Z
today high so far
94°F
at 12:53
forecast peak
96°F
Environment Canada GEM most accurate here, MAE 0.69°C
94°F
typical further climb+2.4°
expected maximum96°
KDAL 32.85°, -96.85°
observed 12:53 local
usually warmestsunset 19:23
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
61°69°77°85°93°14:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:00ECMWF 96°FNOW 94°F
61°69°77°85°93°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 96°FNOW 94°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KDAL, 8 obs
METAR KDAL 231753Z 07005KT 10SM FEW045 BKN250 34/21 A3007 RMK AO2 SLP175 T03440206 58005 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:53 94° 69° 070/05 BKN250
11:53 91° 70° 110/05 BKN250
10:53 87° 69° 120/07 BKN250
09:53 84° 69° SCT250
07:53 79° 68° 110/06 FEW250
06:53 79° 68° 080/04 FEW250
05:53 79° 68° 080/05 FEW250
04:53 80° 67° 080/06 FEW250
current state
METAR 94°F at 12:53 local, +2.0°F vs 14d-median (92°F this hour) KDAL, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +11.0°F (n=14) — projects to ~105°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (70°F→69°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (94°F @ 12:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥100°F possible 14d records show 2/14 days reached ≥100°F
Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 96°F, current 94°F @ 12:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
101°F
14d high, 2026 09 12
avg high99.0°F
p25–p7597.0°F – 99.0°F
days ≥100°F2 / 14
days ≥101°F0 / 14
days ≥102°F0 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.4°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+9.2°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+11.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+11.2°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+11.0°F med, n=14
today @ 12:0094°F
implied peak105°F vs ecmwf 96°F
heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
94° now at 13:00typically +2.4° more (p90 +4.0°)expected peak 96°peak already set on 7% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0079°+13.2°1%
0178°+14.3°1%
0277°+15.3°1%
0376°+16.4°1%
0475°+17.2°1%
0574°+17.9°2%
0674°+18.4°1%
0774°+18.2°1%
0877°+15.4°1%
0980°+12.2°1%
1083°+8.9°1%
1186°+6.1°1%
1288°+4.1°1%
1390°+2.4°7%
1491°+1.1°36%
1591°+0.5°70%
1692°+0.1°100%
1791°+0.0°100%
1888°+0.2°100%
1986°+0.1°100%
2084°+0.1°100%
2183°+0.1°100%
2281°+0.0°100%
2380°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 5kt
SW+6.4°n=23
VARIABLE+3.8°n=10
S+3.3°n=108
CALM+0.9°n=22
SE-0.2°n=69
NW-2.6°n=33
E-3.5°n=33
NE-3.8°n=21
N-7.5°n=43
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 87°F 81°F 91°F 84°F 89°F
01:00 86°F 81°F 89°F 83°F 88°F
02:00 84°F 79°F 87°F 83°F 86°F
03:00 83°F 79°F 86°F 82°F 86°F
04:00 82°F 79°F 85°F 81°F 84°F
05:00 82°F 78°F 84°F 79°F 83°F
06:00 82°F 77°F 83°F 79°F 82°F
07:00 81°F 76°F 83°F 78°F 82°F
08:00 81°F 76°F 84°F 79°F 82°F
09:00 83°F 78°F 86°F 79°F 83°F
10:00 86°F 82°F 88°F 83°F 87°F
11:00 89°F 87°F 91°F 88°F 90°F
12:00 92°F 89°F 94°F 92°F 93°F
13:00 94°F 91°F 96°F 93°F 95°F
14:00 96°F 94°F 98°F 95°F 97°F
15:00 97°F 95°F 100°F 96°F 99°F
16:00 98°F 96°F 101°F 96°F 99°F
17:00 99°F 89°F 101°F 96°F 99°F
18:00 97°F 88°F 100°F 95°F 99°F
19:00 95°F 85°F 99°F 91°F 98°F
20:00 94°F 86°F 96°F 90°F 95°F
21:00 93°F 83°F 95°F 87°F 94°F
22:00 92°F 80°F 93°F 86°F 92°F
23:00 89°F 81°F 92°F 85°F 91°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 97°F
09-21 97°F
09-20 96°F
09-19 96°F
09-18 97°F
09-17 97°F
09-16 99°F
09-15 99°F
09-14 99°F
09-13 99°F
09-12 101°F
09-11 99°F
09-10 99°F
09-09 100°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by8.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
Environment Canada GEM95.9°92.3°1.25°most accurate here
DWD ICON94.6°93.2°1.31°
CMA GRAPES91.8°89.1°1.39°
ECMWF IFS94.1°92.8°1.63°
UK Met Office95.4°91.4°1.75°
NOAA GFS96.1°94.8°1.84°
JMA GSM87.3°91.6°2.26°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
Environment Canada GEM1.25°-0.52°78%
DWD ICON1.31°+0.26°82%
CMA GRAPES1.39°-0.47°70%
ECMWF IFS1.63°-0.13°68%
UK Met Office1.75°+0.81°58%
NOAA GFS1.84°+1.44°58%
JMA GSM2.26°-1.26°57%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z090° 7kt; >6 statute miles; few at 6,000ft; broken at 25,000ft
TAF KDAL 231732Z 2318/2418 09007KT P6SM FEW060 BKN250
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤85°F0%9%6/67
86-87°F0%9%6/67
88-89°F0%10%7/67
90-91°F0%12%8/67
92-93°F0%19%13/67
94-95°F9%15%10/67
96-97°F74%16%11/67
98-99°F13%7%5/67
100-101°F3%1%1/67
102-103°F0%0%0/67
≥104°F0%0%0/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Denver

11:58 local
KBKF ↗39.72°, -104.75°sunset 18:55
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 74.3°F p25–p75 63.9°F–77.9°F
typical 16:00 81.9°F p25–p75 75.6°F–88.9°F
noon → peak climb +11.5°F
live obs
67°F
KBKF 1758Z
today high so far
67°F
at 11:58
forecast peak
78°F
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 0.91°C
67°F
typical further climb+3.4°
expected maximum71°
KBKF 39.72°, -104.75°
observed 11:58 local
usually warmestsunset 18:55
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
31°42°53°64°75°86°13:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:0007:0010:00ECMWF 76°FNOW 67°F
31°42°53°64°75°86°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 76°FNOW 67°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KBKF, 8 obs
METAR KBKF 231758Z VRB04KT 10SM FEW065 BKN090 BKN120 OVC180 20/10 A3019 RMK AO2A SLP159 T01970104 10198 20143 52005
local temp dew wind cloud wx
11:58 67° 51° OVC180
10:58 66° 51° 000/00 OVC180
09:58 66° 52° 260/05 BKN120
08:58 63° 52° 280/04 BKN110
07:58 59° 51° 270/04 BKN120
06:58 58° 51° 290/07 BKN130
05:58 59° 49° 280/03 BKN220
04:58 60° 49° 200/12 BKN200
current state
METAR 67°F at 11:58 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (64°F–78°F) KBKF, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +11.5°F (n=14) — projects to ~79°F @ 16:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (51°F→51°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (67°F @ 11:58) with climatology suggests peak ≥83°F possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥83°F
Today vs ECMWF: running -6.8°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 76°F, current 67°F @ 11:58
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
94°F
14d high, 2026 09 13
avg high81.9°F
p25–p7575.6°F – 88.9°F
days ≥83°F7 / 14
days ≥84°F7 / 14
days ≥85°F6 / 14
peak hour
16:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 16:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+4.9°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+11.3°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+13.1°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+11.5°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+12.4°F med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 11:58)
implied peak~89°F (clim) vs ecmwf 76°F
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
67° now at 12:00typically +3.4° more (p90 +6.5°)expected peak 71°peak already set on 7% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0057°+22.3°3%
0156°+23.3°3%
0255°+24.5°3%
0354°+25.7°3%
0453°+26.3°3%
0552°+27.0°3%
0652°+27.0°3%
0756°+22.9°3%
0862°+17.4°3%
0967°+12.8°3%
1071°+8.7°3%
1174°+5.8°4%
1276°+3.4°7%
1378°+1.7°22%
1478°+1.1°52%
1578°+0.3°84%
1676°+0.1°99%
1774°+0.0°100%
1868°+0.2°100%
1964°+0.5°100%
2063°+0.4°100%
2161°+0.2°100%
2260°+0.2°100%
2358°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
SW+6.7°n=35
S+4.8°n=33
VARIABLE+4.1°n=57
W+4.0°n=18
SE-1.1°n=35
E-1.6°n=29
CALM-2.4°n=40
NW-2.4°n=30
NE-4.3°n=44
N-5.1°n=60
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 65°F 55°F 80°F 62°F 71°F
01:00 65°F 55°F 80°F 60°F 69°F
02:00 64°F 54°F 72°F 60°F 68°F
03:00 62°F 54°F 72°F 56°F 68°F
04:00 61°F 54°F 72°F 56°F 62°F
05:00 58°F 53°F 76°F 56°F 61°F
06:00 58°F 50°F 75°F 54°F 62°F
07:00 58°F 51°F 75°F 54°F 62°F
08:00 59°F 52°F 72°F 54°F 63°F
09:00 64°F 53°F 75°F 57°F 69°F
10:00 67°F 57°F 78°F 58°F 72°F
11:00 74°F 58°F 82°F 64°F 78°F
12:00 77°F 60°F 89°F 68°F 80°F
13:00 77°F 67°F 91°F 72°F 82°F
14:00 80°F 68°F 93°F 74°F 85°F
15:00 84°F 70°F 93°F 76°F 86°F
16:00 82°F 54°F 93°F 75°F 86°F
17:00 80°F 70°F 92°F 75°F 86°F
18:00 80°F 65°F 88°F 75°F 83°F
19:00 74°F 65°F 88°F 69°F 78°F
20:00 71°F 58°F 82°F 63°F 76°F
21:00 69°F 57°F 80°F 61°F 71°F
22:00 67°F 58°F 89°F 61°F 73°F
23:00 67°F 58°F 80°F 60°F 71°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 84°F
09-21 76°F
09-20 75°F
09-19 76°F
09-18 86°F
09-17 81°F
09-16 89°F
09-15 72°F
09-14 87°F
09-13 94°F
09-12 81°F
09-11 89°F
09-10 89°F
09-09 82°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by8.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS78.1°73.8°1.64°most accurate here
UK Met Office74.5°72.1°1.75°
ECMWF IFS75.6°69.4°1.88°
DWD ICON69.8°70.7°2.23°
Environment Canada GEM74.1°63.0°2.48°
CMA GRAPES72.7°66.9°3.08°
JMA GSM73.9°65.8°4.74°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS1.64°+0.25°79%
UK Met Office1.75°+0.36°67%
ECMWF IFS1.88°-0.56°66%
DWD ICON2.23°-0.47°53%
Environment Canada GEM2.48°-1.15°42%
CMA GRAPES3.08°-1.71°26%
JMA GSM4.74°-3.32°13%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/17Z→24/23Z
forecast max72°at 23/22Zmin 55°issued by the national met service
base23/17Z→24/23Z000° 0kt; 10km+; few at 6,500ft; scattered at 8,500ft; broken at 11,000ft; overcast at 18,000ft
temporarily23/23Z→23/24Zvariable 6kt; 9000m; light rain; few at 6,000ft; broken at 9,500ft; overcast at 13,000ft
becoming24/01Z→24/02Zvariable 6kt; 10km+; few at 5,500ft; broken at 8,000ft
becoming24/15Z→24/16Zvariable 6kt; 9000m; light rain; scattered at 7,500ft; overcast at 11,000ft
TAF KBKF 231700Z 2317/2423 00000KT 9999 FEW065 SCT085 BKN110 OVC180 QNH3019INS TEMPO 2323/2324 VRB06KT 9000 -RA FEW060 BKN095 OVC130 BECMG 2401/2402 VRB06KT 9999 FEW055 BKN080 QNH3018INS BECMG 2415/2416 VRB06KT 9000 -RA SCT075 OVC110 QNH3021INS TX22/2322Z TN13/2412Z
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤67°F0%6%4/67
68-69°F1%4%3/67
70-71°F2%0%0/67
72-73°F20%1%1/67
74-75°F28%9%6/67
76-77°F38%7%5/67
78-79°F11%13%9/67
80-81°F3%13%9/67
82-83°F0%18%12/67
84-85°F0%9%6/67
≥86°F0%18%12/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Guangzhou

02:00 local
ZGGG ↗23.39°, 113.30°sunset 18:22
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 28.0°C p25–p75 27.0°C–28.0°C
typical 14:00 35.0°C p25–p75 32.0°C–36.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
live obs
29°C
ZGGG 1800Z
today high so far
30°C
at 00:30
forecast peak
33°C
CMA GRAPES most accurate here, MAE 0.99°C
29°C
typical further climb+6.9°
expected maximum36°
ZGGG 23.39°, 113.30°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:22
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
21°24°27°30°33°36°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 29°C
21°24°27°30°33°36°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 29°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZGGG, 8 obs
METAR ZGGG 231800Z 13003MPS 9999 FEW030 BKN040 29/24 Q1014 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 29° 24° 130/06 BKN040
01:30 29° 24° 120/04 BKN043
01:00 29° 24° 160/08 BKN043
00:30 30° 24° 150/06 SCT043
00:00 30° 24° 140/06 SCT043
23:30 30° 24° 140/08 SCT043
23:00 30° 24° 150/06 SCT056
22:30 30° 24° 130/06 FEW056
current state
METAR 29°C at 02:00 local, +1.0°C vs 14d-median (28°C this hour) ZGGG, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~31°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (24°C→24°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (29°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥36°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥36°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 32°C, current 29°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
37°C
14d high, 2026 09 20
avg high35.0°C
p25–p7532.0°C – 36.0°C
days ≥36°C4 / 14
days ≥37°C1 / 14
days ≥38°C0 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~35°C (clim) vs ecmwf 32°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
29° now at 02:00typically +6.9° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 36°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0028°+6.2°3%
0128°+6.5°3%
0227°+6.9°3%
0327°+7.0°3%
0427°+7.2°3%
0527°+7.4°3%
0627°+7.6°5%
0727°+7.3°5%
0828°+6.3°5%
0930°+4.7°5%
1031°+3.4°8%
1132°+2.4°6%
1233°+1.6°23%
1333°+1.1°39%
1433°+0.6°62%
1533°+0.2°88%
1633°+0.1°100%
1732°+0.1°100%
1831°+0.0°100%
1931°+0.0°100%
2030°+0.1°100%
2129°+0.1°100%
2229°+0.1°100%
2329°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now SE, 6kt
SE+2.0°n=10
VARIABLE+1.4°n=10
E+1.0°n=72
NE-0.0°n=77
N-1.4°n=146
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 29°C 27°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
01:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
02:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
03:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
04:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
05:00 27°C 24°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
06:00 27°C 24°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
07:00 27°C 24°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
08:00 28°C 24°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
09:00 29°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 29°C
10:00 31°C 26°C 32°C 30°C 31°C
11:00 32°C 29°C 35°C 31°C 33°C
12:00 33°C 30°C 35°C 32°C 33°C
13:00 33°C 31°C 36°C 31°C 34°C
14:00 34°C 27°C 36°C 32°C 35°C
15:00 34°C 28°C 37°C 32°C 34°C
16:00 34°C 30°C 36°C 31°C 36°C
17:00 32°C 29°C 35°C 31°C 34°C
18:00 32°C 29°C 34°C 30°C 33°C
19:00 31°C 28°C 33°C 29°C 32°C
20:00 30°C 28°C 32°C 29°C 32°C
21:00 30°C 28°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
22:00 29°C 28°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
23:00 29°C 28°C 30°C 28°C 30°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 33°C
09-21 36°C
09-20 37°C
09-19 36°C
09-18 36°C
09-17 35°C
09-16 31°C
09-15 35°C
09-14 34°C
09-13 34°C
09-12 32°C
09-11 32°C
09-10 32°C
09-09 35°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
CMA GRAPES33.2°33.0°0.99°most accurate here
NOAA GFS31.3°32.4°1.26°
Environment Canada GEM29.8°33.1°1.45°
DWD ICON31.9°33.5°1.60°
ECMWF IFS32.1°32.2°1.70°
UK Met Office30.7°32.5°1.81°
JMA GSM30.9°30.3°2.67°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
CMA GRAPES0.99°-0.30°55%
NOAA GFS1.26°-0.85°54%
Environment Canada GEM1.45°-1.22°39%
DWD ICON1.60°-1.58°29%
ECMWF IFS1.70°-1.63°37%
UK Met Office1.81°-1.66°30%
JMA GSM2.67°-2.61°11%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max34°at 24/07Zmin 26°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z130° 3mps; 8000m; broken at 4,000ft
temporarily24/08Z→24/12Zthunderstorm rain; scattered at 2,600ft (CB); broken at 3,300ft
TAF ZGGG 231506Z 2318/2424 13003MPS 8000 BKN040 TX34/2407Z TN26/2322Z TN26/2422Z TEMPO 2408/2412 TSRA SCT026CB BKN033
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤27°C0%5%3/65
28°C0%0%0/65
29°C0%3%2/65
30°C0%2%1/65
31°C2%2%1/65
32°C4%5%3/65
33°C19%6%4/65
34°C40%18%12/65
35°C27%25%16/65
36°C8%26%17/65
≥37°C1%9%6/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Helsinki

21:20 local
EFHK ↗60.32°, 24.96°sunset 19:18
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 13.0°C p25–p75 12.0°C–15.0°C
typical 14:00 17.0°C p25–p75 16.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
11°C
EFHK 1820Z
today high so far
11°C
at 21:20
forecast peak
12°C
Environment Canada GEM most accurate here, MAE 0.59°C
11°C
left to climb+0.4°
peakalready set
EFHK 60.32°, 24.96°
observed 21:20 local
usually warmestsunset 19:18
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°13°16°22:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:00ECMWF 12°CNOW 11°C
10°13°16°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 12°CNOW 11°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR EFHK, 8 obs
METAR EFHK 231820Z 05006KT 2500 BR OVC002 11/11 Q1017 TEMPO 5000
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:20 11° 11° 050/06 OVC002 BR
20:50 11° 11° 050/05 OVC002 BR
20:20 11° 11° 030/06 OVC002
19:50 11° 11° 040/06 OVC004
19:20 11° 11° 030/07 OVC004
18:50 11° 11° 030/06 OVC005
18:20 11° 11° 030/06 BKN004 -DZ
17:50 11° 10° 030/06 OVC004 -DZ
current state
METAR 11°C at 21:20 local, -2.0°C vs 14d-median (13°C this hour) EFHK, running behind climatology
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 11°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (11°C→11°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 12°C, current 11°C @ 21:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
18°C
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high17.0°C
p25–p7516.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥18°C1 / 14
days ≥19°C0 / 14
days ≥20°C0 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 12°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 21:00peak already set on 98% of days by nowtypically only +0.4° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0011°+4.8°8%
0110°+5.0°8%
0210°+5.3°8%
0310°+5.4°8%
0410°+5.6°8%
0510°+5.5°8%
0610°+5.5°8%
0710°+5.3°8%
0811°+4.5°8%
0912°+3.4°8%
1013°+2.6°9%
1114°+1.9°15%
1214°+1.4°35%
1315°+0.8°58%
1415°+0.4°77%
1515°+0.2°91%
1615°+0.1°98%
1714°+0.1°98%
1813°+0.0°98%
1912°+0.2°98%
2011°+0.4°98%
2111°+0.4°98%
2211°+0.2°100%
2311°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NE, 6kt
SW+2.0°n=70
S+2.0°n=59
SE+0.8°n=56
W+0.2°n=49
E-0.0°n=26
NW-1.4°n=37
NE-3.0°n=34
N-3.8°n=33
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 12°C 5°C 15°C 10°C 14°C
01:00 12°C 4°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
02:00 12°C 4°C 15°C 9°C 12°C
03:00 11°C 3°C 14°C 8°C 13°C
04:00 10°C 3°C 14°C 8°C 13°C
05:00 12°C 3°C 15°C 8°C 14°C
06:00 12°C 2°C 14°C 7°C 14°C
07:00 12°C 3°C 15°C 7°C 14°C
08:00 12°C 3°C 15°C 7°C 14°C
09:00 13°C 6°C 15°C 9°C 14°C
10:00 14°C 8°C 15°C 10°C 14°C
11:00 14°C 10°C 16°C 13°C 15°C
12:00 15°C 11°C 16°C 14°C 16°C
13:00 15°C 10°C 17°C 15°C 15°C
14:00 16°C 10°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
15:00 16°C 10°C 17°C 15°C 17°C
16:00 16°C 11°C 17°C 15°C 17°C
17:00 16°C 11°C 17°C 15°C 17°C
18:00 15°C 11°C 16°C 15°C 16°C
19:00 15°C 11°C 16°C 14°C 15°C
20:00 14°C 9°C 15°C 12°C 15°C
21:00 13°C 8°C 15°C 12°C 15°C
22:00 12°C 7°C 15°C 12°C 14°C
23:00 12°C 6°C 15°C 11°C 14°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 15°C
09-21 16°C
09-20 17°C
09-19 16°C
09-18 17°C
09-17 17°C
09-16 16°C
09-15 17°C
09-14 17°C
09-13 16°C
09-12 17°C
09-11 17°C
09-10 17°C
09-09 18°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
Environment Canada GEM12.2°13.5°0.59°most accurate here
UK Met Office12.0°14.0°0.69°
DWD ICON11.0°14.3°0.72°
CMA GRAPES11.9°12.9°0.77°
NOAA GFS11.2°15.2°0.81°
JMA GSM11.6°13.9°0.81°
ECMWF IFS11.6°15.5°0.96°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
Environment Canada GEM0.59°-0.16°84%
UK Met Office0.69°-0.09°83%
DWD ICON0.72°-0.45°82%
CMA GRAPES0.77°+0.22°79%
NOAA GFS0.81°+0.23°74%
JMA GSM0.81°-0.28°75%
ECMWF IFS0.96°-0.69°57%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z030° 6kt; 10km+; overcast at 200ft
becoming23/18Z→23/20Z600m; fog
temporarily23/20Z→24/07Z3000m; mist
becoming24/07Z→24/09Z10km+; broken at 500ft
becoming24/09Z→24/12Zscattered at 1,200ft
TAF EFHK 231736Z 2318/2418 03006KT 9999 OVC002 BECMG 2318/2320 0600 FG TEMPO 2320/2407 3000 BR BECMG 2407/2409 9999 NSW BKN005 BECMG 2409/2412 SCT012
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤7°C0%0%0/66
8°C0%2%1/66
9°C0%0%0/66
10°C0%3%2/66
11°C98%5%3/66
12°C2%9%6/66
13°C0%11%7/66
14°C0%9%6/66
15°C0%8%5/66
16°C0%9%6/66
≥17°C0%45%30/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Houston

12:53 local
KHOU ↗29.65°, -95.28°sunset 19:17
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 90.0°F p25–p75 88.0°F–91.0°F
typical 14:00 91.9°F p25–p75 91.0°F–93.9°F
noon → peak climb +5.2°F
live obs
92°F
KHOU 1753Z
today high so far
92°F
at 12:53
forecast peak
94°F
Environment Canada GEM most accurate here, MAE 0.82°C
92°F
typical further climb+1.5°
expected maximum93°
KHOU 29.65°, -95.28°
observed 12:53 local
usually warmestsunset 19:17
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
68°74°80°86°92°14:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:00ECMWF 95°FNOW 92°F
68°74°80°86°92°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 95°FNOW 92°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KHOU, 8 obs
METAR KHOU 231753Z 09007KT 10SM SCT040 SCT250 33/22 A3002 RMK AO2 SLP170 T03330222 10333 20272 58006
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:53 92° 72° 090/07 SCT040
11:53 91° 74° 060/09 SCT035
10:53 89° 75° 070/10 SCT030
09:53 87° 76° 050/07 SCT020
09:40 86° 76° 030/07 SCT020
09:05 84° 76° 020/04 OVC020
08:53 84° 76° 030/05 SCT022
07:53 82° 76° 010/04 FEW250
current state
METAR 92°F at 12:53 local, +1.9°F vs 14d-median (90°F this hour) KHOU, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +5.2°F (n=14) — projects to ~97°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°F/h, dewpoint falling (74°F→72°F) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (92°F @ 12:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥93°F possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥93°F
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.9°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 95°F, current 92°F @ 12:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
96°F
14d high, 2026 09 22
avg high91.9°F
p25–p7591.0°F – 93.9°F
days ≥93°F7 / 14
days ≥94°F5 / 14
days ≥95°F2 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.4°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+5.2°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+5.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+3.4°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°F med, n=14
today @ 12:0092°F
implied peak97°F vs ecmwf 95°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
92° now at 13:00typically +1.5° more (p90 +3.0°)expected peak 93°peak already set on 40% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0078°+13.9°0%
0178°+14.4°0%
0277°+15.0°0%
0377°+15.5°0%
0476°+16.0°0%
0576°+16.2°0%
0676°+16.5°0%
0777°+15.3°0%
0881°+11.5°0%
0984°+8.2°2%
1086°+5.8°0%
1188°+3.9°5%
1290°+2.4°15%
1390°+1.5°40%
1491°+0.7°75%
1591°+0.5°94%
1691°+0.1°100%
1789°+0.0°100%
1887°+0.0°100%
1984°+0.0°100%
2082°+0.0°100%
2181°+0.0°100%
2280°+0.0°100%
2379°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 7kt
SW+6.2°n=20
W+5.2°n=14
S+4.3°n=54
SE+2.6°n=60
VARIABLE-0.6°n=19
E-1.6°n=84
NW-1.8°n=15
NE-3.2°n=59
N-4.0°n=48
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 82°F 79°F 85°F 80°F 83°F
01:00 81°F 78°F 84°F 80°F 82°F
02:00 81°F 78°F 85°F 79°F 81°F
03:00 80°F 77°F 81°F 78°F 80°F
04:00 80°F 78°F 82°F 78°F 80°F
05:00 80°F 77°F 83°F 78°F 80°F
06:00 80°F 76°F 82°F 78°F 80°F
07:00 79°F 77°F 82°F 78°F 80°F
08:00 81°F 78°F 82°F 80°F 81°F
09:00 84°F 82°F 86°F 83°F 85°F
10:00 86°F 84°F 88°F 85°F 88°F
11:00 88°F 85°F 90°F 87°F 89°F
12:00 90°F 81°F 93°F 88°F 91°F
13:00 91°F 86°F 94°F 89°F 92°F
14:00 92°F 80°F 95°F 90°F 93°F
15:00 92°F 81°F 96°F 91°F 94°F
16:00 92°F 82°F 95°F 87°F 92°F
17:00 91°F 84°F 96°F 88°F 92°F
18:00 90°F 85°F 94°F 87°F 91°F
19:00 88°F 85°F 93°F 86°F 89°F
20:00 86°F 84°F 89°F 84°F 87°F
21:00 84°F 82°F 86°F 83°F 85°F
22:00 83°F 80°F 86°F 81°F 84°F
23:00 83°F 80°F 85°F 81°F 83°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 96°F
09-21 92°F
09-20 92°F
09-19 92°F
09-18 92°F
09-17 87°F
09-16 93°F
09-15 94°F
09-14 94°F
09-13 93°F
09-12 96°F
09-11 94°F
09-10 89°F
09-09 91°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
Environment Canada GEM94.1°93.0°1.48°most accurate here
NOAA GFS96.6°96.1°1.50°
DWD ICON95.4°95.7°1.57°
UK Met Office93.0°93.0°2.00°
ECMWF IFS93.2°93.7°2.07°
CMA GRAPES93.6°91.6°2.09°
JMA GSM88.7°89.8°3.58°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
Environment Canada GEM1.48°+0.60°78%
NOAA GFS1.50°+1.07°67%
DWD ICON1.57°+0.54°66%
UK Met Office2.00°+1.43°53%
ECMWF IFS2.07°-1.04°50%
CMA GRAPES2.09°+1.31°53%
JMA GSM3.58°-3.33°17%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z110° 9kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft; scattered at 25,000ft
from24/02Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from24/12Z onwards040° 7kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft; scattered at 25,000ft
TAF KHOU 231720Z 2318/2418 11009KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250 FM240200 VRB03KT P6SM FEW250 FM241200 04007KT P6SM SCT030 SCT250
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤85°F0%3%2/65
86-87°F0%5%3/65
88-89°F0%11%7/65
90-91°F0%17%11/65
92-93°F6%35%23/65
94-95°F70%20%13/65
96-97°F26%8%5/65
98-99°F1%2%1/65
100-101°F0%0%0/65
102-103°F0%0%0/65
≥104°F0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

Istanbul

20:50 local
LTFM ↗41.26°, 28.74°sunset 19:01
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 22.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–23.0°C
typical 11:00 24.0°C p25–p75 22.0°C–25.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
12°C
LTFM 1750Z
today high so far
16°C
at 17:20
forecast peak
16°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.62°C
12°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
LTFM 41.26°, 28.74°
observed 20:50 local
usually warmestsunset 19:01
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
12°16°20°24°22:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 12°C
12°16°20°24°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 12°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LTFM, 8 obs
METAR LTFM 231750Z 19005KT 160V290 9999 SCT030 12/10 Q1020 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:50 12° 10° 190/05 SCT030
20:20 14° 10° 220/04 SCT030
19:50 13° 11° SCT030
19:20 14° 10° 220/04 SCT025
18:50 13° BKN025+CB
18:20 13° 11° 030/04 BKN025+CB -SHRA
17:50 12° 340/17 BKN025+CB TSRA
17:20 16° 11° 070/07 BKN025+CB -SHRA
current state
METAR 12°C at 20:50 local, -10.0°C vs 14d-median (22°C this hour) LTFM, running behind climatology
Peak hour 11:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 17°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint stable (10°C→10°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -10.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 16°C, current 12°C @ 20:50
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
14d high,
avg high24.0°C
p25–p7522.0°C – 25.0°C
days ≥25°C0 / 0
days ≥26°C0 / 0
days ≥27°C0 / 0
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 16°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
12° now at 21:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0020°+3.8°8%
0120°+4.0°8%
0219°+4.2°8%
0319°+4.7°8%
0419°+4.7°8%
0519°+4.7°8%
0619°+4.8°8%
0719°+4.1°6%
0821°+3.0°9%
0921°+2.2°14%
1022°+1.4°25%
1123°+1.0°42%
1223°+0.6°63%
1323°+0.4°82%
1423°+0.3°88%
1523°+0.2°97%
1623°+0.1°98%
1722°+0.1°98%
1822°+0.1°98%
1921°+0.1°100%
2021°+0.0°100%
2120°+0.1°100%
2220°+0.1°100%
2320°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now S, 5kt
S+4.4°n=16
SW+3.1°n=80
E+0.1°n=25
NE-1.0°n=160
N-1.8°n=72
NW-2.3°n=15
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 22°C 15°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
01:00 21°C 15°C 22°C 19°C 22°C
02:00 21°C 15°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
03:00 21°C 15°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
04:00 20°C 16°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
05:00 21°C 16°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
06:00 21°C 15°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
07:00 21°C 15°C 22°C 18°C 22°C
08:00 21°C 16°C 23°C 19°C 22°C
09:00 22°C 14°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
10:00 22°C 14°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
11:00 23°C 14°C 24°C 22°C 24°C
12:00 23°C 14°C 25°C 22°C 24°C
13:00 23°C 17°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
14:00 23°C 16°C 25°C 21°C 25°C
15:00 23°C 15°C 25°C 20°C 24°C
16:00 23°C 15°C 26°C 20°C 24°C
17:00 23°C 15°C 26°C 20°C 24°C
18:00 23°C 12°C 26°C 19°C 24°C
19:00 22°C 13°C 25°C 19°C 23°C
20:00 22°C 17°C 23°C 20°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 17°C 23°C 20°C 23°C
22:00 22°C 17°C 23°C 20°C 23°C
23:00 22°C 16°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
no recent actuals
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON15.6°20.0°0.62°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM15.7°18.5°0.66°
ECMWF IFS16.3°19.1°0.72°
CMA GRAPES15.9°18.2°1.44°
NOAA GFS17.2°20.6°1.67°
JMA GSM16.6°18.7°2.67°
UK Met Office17.7°18.8°2.90°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.62°-0.33°84%
Environment Canada GEM0.66°+0.15°84%
ECMWF IFS0.72°+0.00°79%
CMA GRAPES1.44°-1.35°34%
NOAA GFS1.67°+1.61°36%
JMA GSM2.67°-2.67°4%
UK Met Office2.90°-2.89°8%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z230° 8kt; 10km+; scattered at 3,000ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/20Z300° 10kt; light showers rain; few at 2,000ft (CB); broken at 2,500ft
becoming24/04Z→24/07Z330° 10kt
becoming24/16Z→24/19Z180° 8kt
TAF LTFM 231640Z 2318/2424 23008KT 9999 SCT030 TEMPO 2318/2320 30010KT -SHRA FEW020CB BKN025 BECMG 2404/2407 33010KT BECMG 2416/2419 18008KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤12°C0%0%0/66
13°C0%0%0/66
14°C0%0%0/66
15°C0%0%0/66
16°C0%0%0/66
17°C100%3%2/66
18°C0%2%1/66
19°C0%8%5/66
20°C0%3%2/66
21°C0%5%3/66
≥22°C0%80%53/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Jeddah

21:00 local
OEJN ↗21.68°, 39.16°sunset 18:19
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 33.0°C p25–p75 33.0°C–34.0°C
typical 11:00 37.0°C p25–p75 36.0°C–37.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
32°C
OEJN 1800Z
today high so far
36°C
at 13:00
forecast peak
36°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.97°C
32°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
OEJN 21.68°, 39.16°
observed 21:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:19
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
25°28°31°34°37°22:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:00ECMWF 38°CNOW 32°C
25°28°31°34°37°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 38°CNOW 32°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR OEJN, 8 obs
METAR OEJN 231800Z 34009KT 9999 FEW040 32/27 Q1010 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:00 32° 27° 340/09 FEW040
20:00 32° 27° 320/08 FEW040
19:00 32° 27° 320/10 FEW040
18:00 33° 27° 310/08 FEW040
17:00 33° 27° 290/10 CAVOK
15:00 34° 28° 280/10 CAVOK
14:00 34° 28° 280/10 CAVOK
13:00 36° 27° 270/07 CAVOK
current state
METAR 32°C at 21:00 local, -1.0°C vs 14d-median (33°C this hour) OEJN, running behind climatology
Peak hour 11:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 36°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (27°C→27°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 38°C, current 32°C @ 21:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
40°C
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high37.0°C
p25–p7536.0°C – 37.0°C
days ≥38°C4 / 14
days ≥39°C2 / 14
days ≥40°C1 / 14
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00-1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00-1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00-2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 38°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
32° now at 21:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0032°+5.7°2%
0131°+6.1°2%
0231°+6.4°2%
0331°+6.9°2%
0430°+7.1°2%
0530°+7.5°2%
0630°+7.6°2%
0730°+7.4°2%
0832°+5.8°0%
0934°+4.1°0%
1035°+2.4°6%
1137°+0.9°43%
1237°+0.4°72%
1337°+0.2°92%
1437°+0.2°95%
1536°+0.1°97%
1636°+0.1°98%
1735°+0.0°98%
1834°+0.1°98%
1933°+0.1°98%
2033°+0.1°98%
2133°+0.1°100%
2232°+0.0°100%
2332°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 9kt
VARIABLE+2.5°n=13
S+0.8°n=16
SW+0.4°n=57
NW+0.1°n=132
W-0.6°n=155
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 33°C 31°C 35°C 32°C 34°C
01:00 33°C 31°C 34°C 31°C 33°C
02:00 32°C 31°C 34°C 31°C 33°C
03:00 32°C 30°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
04:00 31°C 30°C 35°C 31°C 32°C
05:00 31°C 30°C 34°C 30°C 31°C
06:00 31°C 30°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
07:00 31°C 30°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
08:00 32°C 31°C 33°C 32°C 32°C
09:00 33°C 32°C 34°C 33°C 34°C
10:00 35°C 34°C 36°C 35°C 36°C
11:00 36°C 35°C 40°C 36°C 37°C
12:00 36°C 36°C 39°C 36°C 37°C
13:00 37°C 35°C 39°C 36°C 37°C
14:00 36°C 34°C 39°C 35°C 36°C
15:00 36°C 34°C 38°C 35°C 36°C
16:00 35°C 34°C 37°C 34°C 35°C
17:00 35°C 33°C 36°C 34°C 35°C
18:00 34°C 32°C 36°C 33°C 34°C
19:00 34°C 32°C 35°C 33°C 34°C
20:00 34°C 32°C 35°C 33°C 34°C
21:00 33°C 32°C 36°C 33°C 34°C
22:00 33°C 32°C 35°C 32°C 34°C
23:00 33°C 31°C 35°C 32°C 34°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 36°C
09-21 36°C
09-20 36°C
09-19 37°C
09-18 38°C
09-17 36°C
09-16 39°C
09-15 40°C
09-14 37°C
09-13 37°C
09-12 37°C
09-11 37°C
09-10 37°C
09-09 38°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON35.9°37.1°0.97°most accurate here
NOAA GFS35.6°35.6°1.14°
UK Met Office36.7°37.9°1.23°
Environment Canada GEM35.0°35.5°1.53°
CMA GRAPES33.9°34.8°2.07°
ECMWF IFS37.8°37.5°2.45°
JMA GSM30.8°31.5°6.56°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.97°+0.24°61%
NOAA GFS1.14°-0.46°50%
UK Met Office1.23°+0.91°49%
Environment Canada GEM1.53°-1.39°37%
CMA GRAPES2.07°-2.06°21%
ECMWF IFS2.45°+2.43°8%
JMA GSM6.56°-6.56°0%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z360° 6kt; 7000m; scattered at 4,000ft
becoming24/08Z→24/10Z300° 10kt; 10km+; few at 4,000ft
becoming24/18Z→24/20Z360° 6kt; 6000m; no significant cloud
TAF OEJN 231700Z 2318/2424 36006KT 7000 SCT040 BECMG 2408/2410 30010KT 9999 FEW040 BECMG 2418/2420 36006KT 6000 NSC
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤29°C0%0%0/66
30°C0%0%0/66
31°C0%2%1/66
32°C0%0%0/66
33°C0%0%0/66
34°C0%2%1/66
35°C0%6%4/66
36°C100%27%18/66
37°C0%23%15/66
38°C0%20%13/66
≥39°C0%21%14/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Kuala Lumpur

02:00 local
WMKK ↗2.75°, 101.71°sunset 19:09
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 27.0°C p25–p75 27.0°C–27.0°C
typical 13:00 33.0°C p25–p75 32.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
28°C
WMKK 1800Z
today high so far
28°C
at 02:00
forecast peak
31°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.63°C
28°C
typical further climb+5.6°
expected maximum34°
WMKK 2.75°, 101.71°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 19:09
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
22°24°26°28°30°32°34°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 28°C
22°24°26°28°30°32°34°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 28°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR WMKK, 8 obs
METAR WMKK 231800Z VRB03KT 8000 FEW017CB 28/25 Q1010 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 28° 25° FEW017CB
01:30 28° 25° FEW017CB
01:00 28° 25° 320/04 FEW017CB
00:30 28° 25° 320/05 FEW030
00:00 28° 26° 000/00 FEW030
23:30 28° 26° 000/00 FEW030
23:00 27° 26° 000/00 FEW030
22:30 28° 26° 000/00 FEW030
current state
METAR 28°C at 02:00 local, +1.0°C vs 14d-median (27°C this hour) WMKK, running ahead of climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~29°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (25°C→25°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (28°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥34°C possible 14d records show 0/14 days reached ≥34°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 30°C, current 28°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
33°C
14d high, 2026 09 21
avg high33.0°C
p25–p7532.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥34°C0 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
days ≥36°C0 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~33°C (clim) vs ecmwf 30°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
28° now at 02:00typically +5.6° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 34°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0026°+5.2°0%
0126°+5.4°0%
0226°+5.6°0%
0326°+6.0°0%
0425°+6.3°0%
0525°+6.5°0%
0625°+6.8°0%
0725°+6.8°0%
0825°+6.2°0%
0927°+4.6°0%
1028°+3.1°5%
1129°+2.1°12%
1230°+1.3°37%
1331°+0.8°50%
1430°+0.8°70%
1530°+0.6°83%
1630°+0.2°97%
1730°+0.0°98%
1830°+0.0°100%
1928°+0.0°100%
2027°+0.0°100%
2127°+0.0°100%
2227°+0.0°100%
2326°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
W-0.2°n=14
NW-0.4°n=50
CALM-1.2°n=14
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
01:00 28°C 26°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
02:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 27°C 27°C
03:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
04:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 27°C 27°C
05:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
06:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
07:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
08:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
09:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
10:00 30°C 25°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
11:00 31°C 24°C 32°C 30°C 31°C
12:00 32°C 25°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
13:00 32°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
14:00 32°C 26°C 33°C 31°C 33°C
15:00 32°C 26°C 33°C 31°C 33°C
16:00 32°C 26°C 33°C 31°C 33°C
17:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 30°C 32°C
18:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
19:00 30°C 27°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
20:00 29°C 27°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
21:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
22:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 28°C 28°C
23:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 31°C
09-21 33°C
09-20 33°C
09-19 31°C
09-18 32°C
09-17 33°C
09-16 33°C
09-15 33°C
09-14 33°C
09-13 33°C
09-12 32°C
09-11 29°C
09-10 33°C
09-09 32°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by6.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office31.1°31.7°0.63°most accurate here
DWD ICON31.7°32.4°0.74°
ECMWF IFS29.5°30.9°0.86°
CMA GRAPES29.0°31.4°1.26°
Environment Canada GEM31.2°29.1°1.46°
NOAA GFS24.9°32.5°1.68°
JMA GSM29.2°29.4°3.83°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.63°-0.06°78%
DWD ICON0.74°-0.38°75%
ECMWF IFS0.86°-0.59°66%
CMA GRAPES1.26°-1.02°39%
Environment Canada GEM1.46°-1.33°43%
NOAA GFS1.68°-1.53°24%
JMA GSM3.83°-3.83°3%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→25/00Z
base23/18Z→25/00Zvariable 3kt; 8000m; few at 3,000ft
temporarily40%23/21Z→24/01Z5000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 1,700ft (CB)
TAF WMKK 231700Z 2318/2500 VRB03KT 8000 FEW030 PROB40 TEMPO 2321/2401 5000 TSRA FEW017CB
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤27°C0%0%0/65
28°C2%6%4/65
29°C5%3%2/65
30°C14%5%3/65
31°C32%31%20/65
32°C34%31%20/65
33°C18%18%12/65
34°C3%6%4/65
35°C0%0%0/65
36°C0%0%0/65
≥37°C0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 108% and climatology to 100%.

London

18:50 local
EGLC ↗51.50°, 0.05°sunset 18:57
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–22.0°C
typical 15:00 22.0°C p25–p75 21.0°C–23.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
21°C
EGLC 1750Z
today high so far
23°C
at 15:20
forecast peak
23°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.51°C
21°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
EGLC 51.50°, 0.05°
observed 18:50 local
usually warmestsunset 18:57
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°13°16°19°22°20:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 21°C
10°13°16°19°22°25°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR EGLC, 8 obs
METAR EGLC 231750Z AUTO 32007KT 280V360 9999 NCD 21/12 Q1024
local temp dew wind cloud wx
18:50 21° 12° 320/07 NCD
18:20 21° 12° 310/09 FEW042
17:50 22° 12° 300/09 NCD
17:20 22° 12° 300/08 NCD
16:50 22° 13° 310/10 NCD
16:20 22° 13° 310/09 FEW043
15:50 22° 13° 300/10 NCD
15:20 23° 13° 310/09 NCD
current state
METAR 21°C at 18:50 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (19°C–22°C) EGLC, tracking climatology
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 23°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (12°C→12°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 24°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
25°C
14d high, 2026 09 22
avg high22.0°C
p25–p7521.0°C – 23.0°C
days ≥23°C6 / 14
days ≥24°C2 / 14
days ≥25°C2 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 24°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 19:00peak already set on 98% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0014°+4.7°3%
0114°+5.1°3%
0214°+5.3°3%
0313°+5.5°3%
0413°+5.7°3%
0513°+6.0°2%
0613°+6.0°2%
0713°+5.8°2%
0814°+5.0°2%
0915°+3.7°3%
1016°+2.7°8%
1117°+1.7°15%
1218°+1.0°34%
1318°+0.5°60%
1419°+0.3°86%
1519°+0.1°97%
1618°+0.1°98%
1718°+0.1°98%
1817°+0.1°98%
1917°+0.1°98%
2016°+0.1°98%
2115°+0.1°98%
2215°+0.0°98%
2314°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NW, 7kt
S+1.3°n=49
SE+1.2°n=25
E+0.8°n=37
SW+0.6°n=109
W-0.4°n=77
NE-1.0°n=20
N-1.7°n=12
NW-2.6°n=36
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
01:00 17°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
02:00 16°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
03:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
04:00 17°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
05:00 17°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 18°C
06:00 17°C 12°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
07:00 17°C 11°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
08:00 17°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
09:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
10:00 19°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 20°C
11:00 19°C 17°C 21°C 18°C 21°C
12:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 22°C
13:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
14:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
15:00 22°C 20°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
16:00 22°C 20°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
17:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
18:00 21°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
19:00 21°C 16°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
20:00 20°C 17°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
21:00 19°C 17°C 21°C 18°C 20°C
22:00 19°C 17°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
23:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 19°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 25°C
09-21 23°C
09-20 20°C
09-19 22°C
09-18 20°C
09-17 21°C
09-16 20°C
09-15 23°C
09-14 25°C
09-13 23°C
09-12 23°C
09-11 21°C
09-10 21°C
09-09 19°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office23.1°22.0°0.51°most accurate here
DWD ICON23.9°22.3°0.51°
Environment Canada GEM23.9°22.6°0.68°
NOAA GFS24.0°22.3°0.77°
ECMWF IFS23.9°22.1°0.79°
JMA GSM21.4°19.9°1.44°
CMA GRAPES20.3°17.2°2.26°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.51°+0.22°91%
DWD ICON0.51°-0.09°91%
Environment Canada GEM0.68°-0.18°82%
NOAA GFS0.77°+0.47°76%
ECMWF IFS0.79°+0.02°70%
JMA GSM1.44°-1.28°39%
CMA GRAPES2.26°-2.26°17%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/03Z
base23/18Z→24/03Z330° 10kt; 10km+; few at 4,000ft
becoming23/20Z→23/23Z040° 5kt
TAF EGLC 231703Z 2318/2403 33010KT 9999 FEW040 BECMG 2320/2323 04005KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤18°C0%47%31/66
19°C0%5%3/66
20°C0%24%16/66
21°C0%6%4/66
22°C0%9%6/66
23°C100%5%3/66
24°C0%0%0/66
25°C0%2%1/66
26°C0%0%0/66
27°C0%3%2/66
≥28°C0%0%0/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

London

18:50 local
EGLC ↗51.50°, 0.05°sunset 18:57
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–22.0°C
typical 15:00 22.0°C p25–p75 21.0°C–23.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
live obs
21°C
EGLC 1750Z
today high so far
23°C
at 15:20
forecast low
17°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.51°C
21°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
EGLC 51.50°, 0.05°
observed 18:50 local
usually warmestsunset 18:57
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°13°16°19°22°20:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:00ECMWF 15°CNOW 21°C
10°13°16°19°22°25°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 15°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR EGLC, 8 obs
METAR EGLC 231750Z AUTO 32007KT 280V360 9999 NCD 21/12 Q1024
local temp dew wind cloud wx
18:50 21° 12° 320/07 NCD
18:20 21° 12° 310/09 FEW042
17:50 22° 12° 300/09 NCD
17:20 22° 12° 300/08 NCD
16:50 22° 13° 310/10 NCD
16:20 22° 13° 310/09 FEW043
15:50 22° 13° 300/10 NCD
15:20 23° 13° 310/09 NCD
current state
METAR 21°C at 18:50 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (19°C–22°C) EGLC, tracking climatology
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 23°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (12°C→12°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 15°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
18°C
14d high, 2026 09 14
avg high22.0°C
p25–p7521.0°C – 23.0°C
days ≥23°C0 / 14
days ≥24°C0 / 14
days ≥25°C0 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 15°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 19:00peak already set on 98% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0014°+4.7°3%
0114°+5.1°3%
0214°+5.3°3%
0313°+5.5°3%
0413°+5.7°3%
0513°+6.0°2%
0613°+6.0°2%
0713°+5.8°2%
0814°+5.0°2%
0915°+3.7°3%
1016°+2.7°8%
1117°+1.7°15%
1218°+1.0°34%
1318°+0.5°60%
1419°+0.3°86%
1519°+0.1°97%
1618°+0.1°98%
1718°+0.1°98%
1817°+0.1°98%
1917°+0.1°98%
2016°+0.1°98%
2115°+0.1°98%
2215°+0.0°98%
2314°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NW, 7kt
S+1.3°n=49
SE+1.2°n=25
E+0.8°n=37
SW+0.6°n=109
W-0.4°n=77
NE-1.0°n=20
N-1.7°n=12
NW-2.6°n=36
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
01:00 17°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
02:00 16°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
03:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
04:00 17°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
05:00 17°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 18°C
06:00 17°C 12°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
07:00 17°C 11°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
08:00 17°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
09:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
10:00 19°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
11:00 19°C 17°C 21°C 18°C 21°C
12:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 22°C
13:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
14:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
15:00 22°C 20°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
16:00 22°C 20°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
17:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
18:00 21°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
19:00 21°C 16°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
20:00 20°C 17°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
21:00 19°C 17°C 21°C 18°C 20°C
22:00 19°C 17°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
23:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 19°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 15°C
09-21 11°C
09-20 14°C
09-19 17°C
09-18 12°C
09-17 14°C
09-16 14°C
09-15 17°C
09-14 18°C
09-13 18°C
09-12 14°C
09-11 16°C
09-10 14°C
09-09 12°C
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office17.0°13.1°0.51°most accurate here
DWD ICON16.2°12.4°0.51°
Environment Canada GEM14.0°9.6°0.68°
NOAA GFS16.7°14.0°0.77°
ECMWF IFS16.0°11.9°0.79°
JMA GSM15.7°11.8°1.44°
CMA GRAPES12.0°10.0°2.26°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.51°+0.22°91%
DWD ICON0.51°-0.09°91%
Environment Canada GEM0.68°-0.18°82%
NOAA GFS0.77°+0.47°76%
ECMWF IFS0.79°+0.02°70%
JMA GSM1.44°-1.28°39%
CMA GRAPES2.26°-2.26°17%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/03Z
base23/18Z→24/03Z330° 10kt; 10km+; few at 4,000ft
becoming23/20Z→23/23Z040° 5kt
TAF EGLC 231703Z 2318/2403 33010KT 9999 FEW040 BECMG 2320/2323 04005KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤9°C0%0%0/66
10°C0%0%0/66
11°C0%0%0/66
12°C1%0%0/66
13°C2%0%0/66
14°C6%6%4/66
15°C15%6%4/66
16°C44%9%6/66
17°C15%14%9/66
18°C0%12%8/66
≥19°C0%53%35/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 84% and climatology to 100%.

Los Angeles

10:53 local
KLAX ↗33.94°, -118.41°sunset 18:49
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 73.9°F p25–p75 73.0°F–78.1°F
typical 12:00 78.1°F p25–p75 75.9°F–81.0°F
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
77°F
KLAX 1753Z
today high so far
77°F
at 10:53
forecast peak
79°F
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 0.50°C
77°F
typical further climb+1.2°
expected maximum78°
KLAX 33.94°, -118.41°
observed 10:53 local
usually warmestsunset 18:49
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
61°66°71°76°81°86°12:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:00ECMWF 87°FNOW 77°F
58°64°70°76°82°88°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 87°FNOW 77°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KLAX, 8 obs
METAR KLAX 231753Z 25007KT 10SM FEW012 25/19 A2987 RMK AO2 SLP114 T02500189 10250 20189 50003 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
10:53 77° 66° 250/07 FEW012
09:53 75° 64° 000/00 FEW011
08:53 72° 64° 000/00 FEW010
07:53 69° 63° 000/00 FEW010
06:53 66° 62° 080/03 FEW010
05:53 67° 63° 000/00 FEW010
04:53 67° 63° 020/03 FEW010
03:53 67° 63° 000/00 FEW010
current state
METAR 77°F at 10:53 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (73°F–78°F) KLAX, tracking climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°F/h, dewpoint rising (64°F→66°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (77°F @ 10:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥79°F possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥79°F
Today vs ECMWF: running +3.1°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 87°F, current 77°F @ 10:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
97°F
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high78.1°F
p25–p7575.9°F – 81.0°F
days ≥79°F5 / 14
days ≥80°F4 / 14
days ≥81°F3 / 14
peak hour
12:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 12:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00-2.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00-3.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-5.6°F med, n=13
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:53)
implied peakvs ecmwf 87°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
77° now at 11:00typically +1.2° more (p90 +3.0°)expected peak 78°peak already set on 35% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0066°+7.3°0%
0166°+7.8°0%
0265°+8.0°0%
0365°+8.4°0%
0465°+8.3°0%
0565°+8.3°0%
0665°+8.2°0%
0766°+7.2°0%
0868°+5.3°0%
0970°+3.6°0%
1072°+1.9°18%
1172°+1.2°35%
1273°+0.8°65%
1373°+0.3°88%
1473°+0.1°97%
1572°+0.0°100%
1671°+0.0°100%
1769°+0.0°100%
1868°+0.1°100%
1967°+0.2°100%
2067°+0.1°100%
2167°+0.2°100%
2267°+0.1°100%
2366°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now W, 7kt
VARIABLE+2.6°n=14
W+0.2°n=253
SW-0.5°n=99
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 70°F 68°F 82°F 69°F 71°F
01:00 70°F 68°F 80°F 69°F 71°F
02:00 69°F 66°F 78°F 68°F 71°F
03:00 69°F 67°F 79°F 68°F 71°F
04:00 70°F 66°F 77°F 68°F 70°F
05:00 70°F 66°F 77°F 68°F 71°F
06:00 70°F 66°F 76°F 68°F 71°F
07:00 70°F 66°F 78°F 67°F 72°F
08:00 71°F 67°F 80°F 69°F 72°F
09:00 72°F 70°F 83°F 71°F 73°F
10:00 74°F 71°F 93°F 73°F 78°F
11:00 76°F 72°F 97°F 73°F 81°F
12:00 77°F 74°F 96°F 75°F 80°F
13:00 78°F 75°F 94°F 76°F 80°F
14:00 78°F 74°F 92°F 76°F 81°F
15:00 77°F 74°F 92°F 76°F 79°F
16:00 76°F 73°F 87°F 75°F 78°F
17:00 75°F 73°F 87°F 74°F 76°F
18:00 73°F 71°F 86°F 73°F 75°F
19:00 71°F 70°F 82°F 70°F 72°F
20:00 71°F 69°F 82°F 70°F 72°F
21:00 70°F 68°F 84°F 70°F 72°F
22:00 70°F 68°F 84°F 70°F 72°F
23:00 71°F 68°F 83°F 69°F 72°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 76°F
09-21 77°F
09-20 77°F
09-19 77°F
09-18 76°F
09-17 76°F
09-16 78°F
09-15 80°F
09-14 78°F
09-13 78°F
09-12 81°F
09-11 85°F
09-10 91°F
09-09 97°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by15.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS78.6°75.6°0.90°most accurate here
UK Met Office76.8°73.9°1.43°
JMA GSM80.8°78.6°3.01°
CMA GRAPES84.0°85.3°3.79°
Environment Canada GEM81.9°81.5°4.04°
DWD ICON85.1°83.1°4.30°
ECMWF IFS91.9°91.4°10.17°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS0.90°+0.52°88%
UK Met Office1.43°+0.06°74%
JMA GSM3.01°+2.39°37%
CMA GRAPES3.79°+3.45°26%
Environment Canada GEM4.04°+3.85°9%
DWD ICON4.30°+4.22°7%
ECMWF IFS10.17°+10.05°0%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z260° 6kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from23/20Z onwards260° 12kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from24/03Z onwards250° 6kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from24/07Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from24/10Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 1,000ft
from24/18Z onwards260° 6kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from24/21Z onwards260° 12kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 25,000ft
TAF KLAX 231720Z 2318/2424 26006KT P6SM SKC FM232000 26012KT P6SM SKC FM240300 25006KT P6SM SKC FM240700 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM241000 VRB03KT P6SM BKN010 FM241800 26006KT P6SM SKC FM242100 26012KT P6SM SCT250
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤71°F0%31%20/65
72-73°F0%17%11/65
74-75°F0%15%10/65
76-77°F10%20%13/65
78-79°F58%9%6/65
80-81°F29%8%5/65
82-83°F6%0%0/65
84-85°F1%0%0/65
86-87°F0%0%0/65
88-89°F0%0%0/65
≥90°F0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Lucknow

23:30 local
VILK ↗26.76°, 80.89°sunset 18:03
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 28.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–29.0°C
typical 14:00 33.0°C p25–p75 32.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
28°C
VILK 1800Z
today high so far
29°C
at 23:00
forecast peak
33°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.78°C
28°C
left to climb+0.0°
peakalready set
VILK 26.76°, 80.89°
observed 23:30 local
usually warmestsunset 18:03
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
24°26°28°30°32°34°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 28°C
22°24°26°28°30°32°34°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 28°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR VILK, 8 obs
METAR VILK 231800Z 07005KT 4000 BR FEW020 SCT100 28/27 Q1008 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
23:30 28° 27° 070/05 SCT100 BR
23:00 29° 27° 080/08 SCT100 BR
22:30 29° 27° 050/05 SCT100 BR
22:00 29° 27° 050/05 SCT100 BR
21:30 29° 27° 050/06 SCT100 BR
21:00 29° 27° 030/04 SCT100 BR
20:30 29° 27° 040/04 SCT100 BR
20:00 28° 27° 040/04 BKN100 BR
current state
METAR 28°C at 23:30 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (28°C–29°C) VILK, tracking climatology
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 33°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (27°C→27°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 32°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
34°C
14d high, 2026 09 17
avg high33.0°C
p25–p7532.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥34°C4 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
days ≥36°C0 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 32°C
heating passport climb to peak 59 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
28° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0027°+4.9°0%
0127°+5.2°0%
0227°+5.3°0%
0327°+5.6°0%
0426°+5.7°0%
0526°+5.6°0%
0626°+5.9°0%
0727°+4.8°0%
0828°+3.9°0%
0929°+2.8°2%
1030°+1.9°6%
1131°+1.2°20%
1231°+0.7°50%
1331°+0.5°72%
1432°+0.2°93%
1531°+0.2°98%
1631°+0.1°100%
1730°+0.1°100%
1829°+0.1°100%
1928°+0.2°100%
2028°+0.2°100%
2128°+0.1°100%
2228°+0.0°100%
2327°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 5kt
W+0.9°n=57
NW+0.6°n=88
N+0.5°n=13
VARIABLE+0.2°n=15
CALM+0.1°n=39
SE-0.4°n=32
E-1.1°n=58
NE-1.6°n=17
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 28°C
01:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
02:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
03:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
04:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 27°C 27°C
05:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 27°C 27°C
06:00 27°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 27°C
07:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
08:00 29°C 27°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
09:00 29°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 30°C
10:00 31°C 28°C 32°C 30°C 31°C
11:00 32°C 27°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
12:00 32°C 27°C 34°C 32°C 32°C
13:00 32°C 24°C 34°C 32°C 33°C
14:00 33°C 26°C 33°C 31°C 33°C
15:00 32°C 27°C 34°C 31°C 32°C
16:00 32°C 24°C 34°C 30°C 33°C
17:00 32°C 24°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
18:00 30°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 31°C
19:00 29°C 25°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
20:00 29°C 25°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
21:00 29°C 25°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
22:00 29°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
23:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 33°C
09-21 33°C
09-20 33°C
09-19 32°C
09-18 31°C
09-17 34°C
09-16 34°C
09-15 33°C
09-14 32°C
09-13 33°C
09-12 33°C
09-11 30°C
09-10 34°C
09-09 34°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON33.0°29.3°0.78°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS31.0°27.6°0.95°
UK Met Office34.1°28.4°0.96°
Environment Canada GEM32.0°24.7°1.28°
JMA GSM32.1°28.3°1.80°
CMA GRAPES32.1°26.1°1.84°
NOAA GFS35.0°31.7°2.44°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.78°-0.20°78%
ECMWF IFS0.95°-0.58°59%
UK Met Office0.96°+0.47°59%
Environment Canada GEM1.28°-0.36°53%
JMA GSM1.80°-1.63°28%
CMA GRAPES1.84°+1.48°28%
NOAA GFS2.44°+2.33°26%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z040° 8kt; 4000m; mist; scattered at 2,000ft; broken at 9,000ft
temporarily23/20Z→23/24Z060° 12kt; 2500m; light thunderstorm rain; light rain; scattered at 1,000ft; scattered at 2,000ft; few at 3,000ft (CB); overcast at 9,000ft
becoming24/04Z→24/06Z4000m; mist; scattered at 2,000ft; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 9,000ft
temporarily24/06Z→24/10Z090° 14kt; 2000m; light thunderstorm rain; light rain; few at 3,000ft (CB); overcast at 9,000ft
becoming24/13Z→24/15Z070° 8kt; 3500m; mist; scattered at 2,000ft; broken at 9,000ft
temporarily24/20Z→24/24Z2000m; light thunderstorm rain; light rain; few at 3,000ft (CB); overcast at 9,000ft
TAF VILK 231700Z 2318/2424 04008KT 4000 BR SCT020 BKN090 TEMPO 2320/2324 06012KT 2500 -TSRA -RA SCT010 SCT020 FEW030CB OVC090 BECMG 2404/2406 4000 BR SCT020 SCT025 BKN090 TEMPO 2406/2410 09014KT 2000 -TSRA -RA FEW030CB OVC090 BECMG 2413/2415 07008KT 3500 BR SCT020 BKN090 TEMPO 2420/2424 2000 -TSRA -RA FEW030CB OVC090
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤28°C0%8%5/66
29°C0%3%2/66
30°C0%9%6/66
31°C0%8%5/66
32°C0%30%20/66
33°C100%14%9/66
34°C0%23%15/66
35°C0%6%4/66
36°C0%0%0/66
37°C0%0%0/66
≥38°C0%0%0/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Madrid

20:00 local
LEMD ↗40.49°, -3.57°sunset 20:10
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 30.0°C p25–p75 27.0°C–32.0°C
typical 17:00 33.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–34.0°C
noon → peak climb +6.0°C
live obs
31°C
LEMD 1800Z
today high so far
34°C
at 18:30
forecast peak
33°C
ECMWF IFS most accurate here, MAE 0.68°C
31°C
left to climb+0.0°
peakalready set
LEMD 40.49°, -3.57°
observed 20:00 local
usually warmestsunset 20:10
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-3°13°21°29°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 31°C
-4°12°20°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 31°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LEMD, 8 obs
METAR LEMD 231800Z VRB02KT CAVOK 31/03 Q1020 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:00 31° CAVOK
19:30 33° CAVOK
19:00 33° 160/04 CAVOK
18:30 34° 210/03 CAVOK
18:00 34° 180/03 CAVOK
17:30 34° 250/04 CAVOK
16:30 33° 170/03 CAVOK
15:30 32° 220/03 CAVOK
current state
METAR 31°C at 20:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (27°C–32°C) LEMD, tracking climatology
Peak hour 17:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 34°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -2.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (2°C→3°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 32°C, current 31°C @ 20:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
36°C
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high33.0°C
p25–p7528.0°C – 34.0°C
days ≥34°C3 / 14
days ≥35°C2 / 14
days ≥36°C1 / 14
peak hour
17:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 17:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+4.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+5.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+5.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+6.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 32°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
31° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0019°+7.1°6%
0118°+8.1°6%
0217°+8.9°8%
0316°+9.6°8%
0415°+10.4°8%
0515°+11.0°8%
0614°+11.6°8%
0714°+12.1°6%
0813°+12.6°6%
0914°+11.8°6%
1016°+9.6°6%
1119°+7.4°6%
1221°+5.5°6%
1322°+3.6°6%
1424°+2.4°11%
1525°+1.3°22%
1625°+0.8°42%
1726°+0.3°74%
1826°+0.0°97%
1925°+0.0°100%
2024°+0.0°100%
2122°+0.0°100%
2221°+0.0°100%
2320°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
CALM+1.1°n=118
VARIABLE+0.8°n=34
SE+0.1°n=13
S-0.5°n=54
SW-0.7°n=67
N-1.0°n=24
W-1.3°n=13
NE-1.6°n=30
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
01:00 21°C 16°C 23°C 18°C 23°C
02:00 19°C 15°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
03:00 19°C 14°C 20°C 17°C 20°C
04:00 17°C 13°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
05:00 17°C 12°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
06:00 16°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
07:00 15°C 11°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
08:00 15°C 11°C 19°C 13°C 15°C
09:00 16°C 10°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
10:00 19°C 14°C 21°C 17°C 20°C
11:00 21°C 15°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
12:00 24°C 17°C 28°C 23°C 27°C
13:00 27°C 20°C 30°C 24°C 28°C
14:00 28°C 22°C 33°C 26°C 30°C
15:00 29°C 24°C 34°C 27°C 31°C
16:00 31°C 25°C 35°C 28°C 32°C
17:00 31°C 26°C 36°C 27°C 33°C
18:00 32°C 27°C 36°C 28°C 34°C
19:00 31°C 26°C 36°C 28°C 32°C
20:00 30°C 24°C 35°C 27°C 32°C
21:00 26°C 22°C 33°C 24°C 29°C
22:00 25°C 21°C 32°C 22°C 27°C
23:00 23°C 19°C 27°C 21°C 25°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 34°C
09-21 33°C
09-20 31°C
09-19 29°C
09-18 28°C
09-17 27°C
09-16 28°C
09-15 36°C
09-14 35°C
09-13 33°C
09-12 33°C
09-11 31°C
09-10 28°C
09-09 27°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
ECMWF IFS32.9°33.7°0.68°most accurate here
DWD ICON33.3°34.0°0.72°
UK Met Office32.0°32.9°0.76°
JMA GSM31.7°31.9°0.80°
NOAA GFS32.3°32.7°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM33.0°33.6°1.47°
CMA GRAPES28.3°28.6°2.68°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
ECMWF IFS0.68°-0.57°87%
DWD ICON0.72°-0.57°79%
UK Met Office0.76°-0.66°74%
JMA GSM0.80°-0.70°71%
NOAA GFS1.09°-0.96°46%
Environment Canada GEM1.47°-1.42°20%
CMA GRAPES2.68°-2.63°3%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max34°at 24/15Zmin 16°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Zvariable 4kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
temporarily40%24/12Z→24/16Z180° 8kt gusting 18
TAF LEMD 231700Z 2318/2424 VRB04KT CAVOK TX34/2415Z TN16/2406Z PROB40 TEMPO 2412/2416 18008G18KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤28°C0%71%47/66
29°C0%12%8/66
30°C0%2%1/66
31°C0%8%5/66
32°C0%2%1/66
33°C0%0%0/66
34°C100%2%1/66
35°C0%3%2/66
36°C0%0%0/66
37°C0%2%1/66
≥38°C0%0%0/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Manila

02:00 local
RPLL ↗14.51°, 121.02°sunset 17:51
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 27.0°C p25–p75 26.0°C–28.0°C
typical 12:00 32.0°C p25–p75 31.0°C–32.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
28°C
RPLL 1800Z
today high so far
30°C
at 18:00
forecast peak
33°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.85°C
28°C
typical further climb+5.1°
expected maximum33°
RPLL 14.51°, 121.02°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:51
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
23°25°27°29°31°33°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 28°C
23°25°27°29°31°33°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 28°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RPLL, 8 obs
METAR RPLL 231800Z VRB01KT 9999 FEW023CB 28/25 Q1011 NOSIG RMK A2985 CB/OCNL LTG NW
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 28° 25° FEW023CB
01:00 28° 25° 000/00 FEW023CB
00:00 28° 25° FEW025
23:00 28° 25° 000/00 FEW025
20:00 29° 25° BKN100
19:00 28° 25° 000/00 BKN100 -SHRA
18:15 29° 24° BKN090+CB -TSRA TSRA
18:00 30° 24° 190/07 BKN090
current state
METAR 28°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (26°C–28°C) RPLL, tracking climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (25°C→25°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (28°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥33°C possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥33°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 30°C, current 28°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
34°C
14d high, 2026 09 19
avg high32.0°C
p25–p7531.0°C – 32.0°C
days ≥33°C3 / 14
days ≥34°C1 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
peak hour
12:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 12:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00-1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 30°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
28° now at 02:00typically +5.1° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 33°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0027°+4.6°3%
0127°+4.8°3%
0227°+5.1°3%
0327°+5.1°3%
0427°+5.2°3%
0527°+5.3°3%
0627°+5.2°3%
0727°+4.5°3%
0828°+3.4°5%
0930°+2.3°14%
1030°+1.8°22%
1130°+1.3°31%
1231°+0.8°53%
1331°+0.6°78%
1431°+0.5°91%
1530°+0.2°98%
1630°+0.1°100%
1729°+0.3°100%
1828°+0.2°100%
1928°+0.2°100%
2028°+0.2°100%
2128°+0.1°100%
2228°+0.0°100%
2327°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
E+0.8°n=59
SE+0.7°n=42
VARIABLE+0.7°n=53
W-0.4°n=135
NW-0.5°n=25
NE-0.6°n=11
SW-1.1°n=24
N-1.2°n=11
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
01:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
02:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
03:00 27°C 26°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
04:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
05:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
06:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
07:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
08:00 29°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
09:00 30°C 27°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
10:00 30°C 29°C 31°C 30°C 31°C
11:00 31°C 28°C 32°C 31°C 32°C
12:00 31°C 30°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
13:00 32°C 28°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
14:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 30°C 32°C
15:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 28°C 32°C
16:00 30°C 26°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
17:00 29°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 31°C
18:00 29°C 27°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
19:00 29°C 27°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
20:00 29°C 27°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
21:00 28°C 25°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
22:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
23:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 32°C
09-21 32°C
09-20 33°C
09-19 34°C
09-18 33°C
09-17 31°C
09-16 32°C
09-15 31°C
09-14 32°C
09-13 32°C
09-12 31°C
09-11 30°C
09-10 30°C
09-09 30°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON32.6°32.7°0.85°most accurate here
UK Met Office31.1°31.1°0.98°
CMA GRAPES32.9°33.1°1.18°
JMA GSM31.2°32.0°1.22°
NOAA GFS32.3°31.9°1.35°
Environment Canada GEM30.8°29.9°1.51°
ECMWF IFS29.7°30.4°1.54°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.85°-0.39°66%
UK Met Office0.98°+0.12°59%
CMA GRAPES1.18°-0.90°47%
JMA GSM1.22°-0.87°49%
NOAA GFS1.35°-1.06°50%
Environment Canada GEM1.51°-1.23°41%
ECMWF IFS1.54°-1.52°28%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max32°at 24/06Zmin 26°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Zvariable 3kt; 10km+; few at 2,500ft; broken at 10,000ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/24Zfew at 2,300ft (CB); broken at 9,000ft
becoming24/02Z→24/04Z270° 8kt
temporarily24/04Z→24/10Z290° 12kt; light thunderstorm rain; few at 2,200ft (CB); scattered at 2,300ft; broken at 9,000ft
TAF RPLL 231700Z 2318/2424 VRB03KT 9999 FEW025 BKN100 TX32/2406Z TN26/2321Z TEMPO 2318/2324 FEW023CB BKN090 BECMG 2402/2404 27008KT TEMPO 2404/2410 29012KT -TSRA FEW022CB SCT023 BKN090
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤28°C0%5%3/65
29°C0%3%2/65
30°C2%11%7/65
31°C12%23%15/65
32°C43%20%13/65
33°C40%22%14/65
34°C6%11%7/65
35°C1%6%4/65
36°C0%0%0/65
37°C0%0%0/65
≥38°C0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Mexico City

11:51 local
MMMX ↗19.44°, -99.07°sunset 18:32
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–21.0°C
typical 15:00 25.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb +3.0°C
live obs
21°C
MMMX 1751Z
today high so far
21°C
at 11:51
forecast peak
26°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.86°C
21°C
typical further climb+1.9°
expected maximum23°
MMMX 19.44°, -99.07°
observed 11:51 local
usually warmestsunset 18:32
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
14°19°24°13:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:0007:0010:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 21°C
14°19°24°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR MMMX, 8 obs
METAR MMMX 231751Z 00000KT 7SM SCT020 OVC220 21/10 A3031 NOSIG RMK 8/207 HZY ISOL AC
local temp dew wind cloud wx
11:51 21° 10° 000/00 OVC220
10:51 20° 11° 000/00 OVC220
09:47 19° 11° 110/08 OVC220
08:53 17° 11° 000/00 OVC220
05:43 14° 11° 000/00 SKC
04:41 15° 11° 300/07 SKC
03:42 16° 11° 300/05 FEW250
02:45 16° 11° 000/00 SCT250
current state
METAR 21°C at 11:51 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (20°C–21°C) MMMX, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +3.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~24°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°C/h, dewpoint rising (11°C→10°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (21°C @ 11:51) with climatology suggests peak ≥26°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥26°C
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 24°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
26°C
14d high, 2026 09 22
avg high25.0°C
p25–p7524.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥26°C5 / 14
days ≥27°C0 / 14
days ≥28°C0 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+3.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 11:51)
implied peak~25°C (clim) vs ecmwf 24°C
heating passport climb to peak 64 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 12:00typically +1.9° more (p90 +4.0°)expected peak 23°peak already set on 14% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0016°+7.9°0%
0116°+8.2°0%
0216°+8.5°0%
0315°+8.8°0%
0415°+9.1°0%
0515°+9.4°0%
0615°+9.5°0%
0716°+8.5°0%
0817°+7.0°0%
0918°+5.6°0%
1020°+4.3°3%
1121°+3.0°8%
1222°+1.9°14%
1323°+0.9°41%
1423°+0.4°70%
1523°+0.1°95%
1622°+0.1°98%
1721°+0.1°100%
1820°+0.1°100%
1918°+0.1°100%
2018°+0.1°100%
2117°+0.0°100%
2217°+0.0°100%
2316°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 0kt
E+0.9°n=55
NE+0.5°n=89
CALM+0.3°n=16
VARIABLE-0.1°n=78
N-0.3°n=97
SE-0.4°n=23
NW-1.6°n=20
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 16°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
01:00 16°C 15°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
02:00 16°C 15°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
03:00 15°C 14°C 16°C 15°C 16°C
04:00 15°C 14°C 16°C 14°C 16°C
05:00 15°C 13°C 16°C 14°C 15°C
06:00 14°C 13°C 16°C 14°C 14°C
07:00 14°C 13°C 16°C 14°C 15°C
08:00 15°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
09:00 18°C 14°C 19°C 17°C 18°C
10:00 20°C 18°C 21°C 19°C 20°C
11:00 21°C 19°C 22°C 20°C 21°C
12:00 22°C 20°C 24°C 21°C 22°C
13:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 24°C
14:00 24°C 22°C 25°C 23°C 25°C
15:00 25°C 23°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
16:00 24°C 19°C 26°C 22°C 25°C
17:00 23°C 18°C 26°C 20°C 25°C
18:00 22°C 17°C 25°C 20°C 22°C
19:00 20°C 14°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
20:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 20°C
21:00 17°C 15°C 19°C 17°C 19°C
22:00 18°C 16°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
23:00 17°C 16°C 18°C 16°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 26°C
09-21 26°C
09-20 26°C
09-19 25°C
09-18 24°C
09-17 24°C
09-16 26°C
09-15 25°C
09-14 24°C
09-13 25°C
09-12 26°C
09-11 25°C
09-10 25°C
09-09 24°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office25.5°26.0°0.86°most accurate here
DWD ICON26.1°26.1°0.89°
NOAA GFS26.3°26.1°0.97°
ECMWF IFS25.9°28.7°1.12°
Environment Canada GEM24.6°26.2°1.19°
JMA GSM24.6°23.6°1.65°
CMA GRAPES22.7°22.6°2.18°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.86°+0.45°68%
DWD ICON0.89°+0.50°68%
NOAA GFS0.97°+0.57°61%
ECMWF IFS1.12°+0.54°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.19°-0.99°54%
JMA GSM1.65°-1.48°29%
CMA GRAPES2.18°-2.08°18%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18ZAMENDED
forecast max25°at 23/21Zmin 14°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z300° 6kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,000ft
becoming23/19Z→23/20Z120° 10kt; scattered at 2,000ft; broken at 8,000ft
temporarily23/23Z→24/03Zvariable 10kt gusting 20; 5 statute miles; thunderstorm rain; broken at 2,000ft (CB)
from24/03Z onwards020° 4kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 8,000ft
becoming24/06Z→24/07Zscattered at 2,000ft; overcast at 3,000ft
possibly40%24/10Z→24/14Z5 statute miles; light rain
from24/15Z onwards340° 6kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 3,000ft
becoming24/15Z→24/16Zno significant cloud
TAF COR MMMX 231817Z 2318/2418 30006KT P6SM SCT020 TX25/2321Z TN14/2412Z BECMG 2319/2320 12010KT SCT020 BKN080 TEMPO 2323/2403 VRB10G20KT 5SM TSRA BKN020CB FM240300 02004KT P6SM BKN080 BECMG 2406/2407 SCT020 OVC030 PROB40 2410/2414 5SM -RA BKN0J20 FM241500 34006KT P6SM BKN030 BECMG 2415/2416 SKC
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤16°C0%0%0/65
17°C0%2%1/65
18°C0%2%1/65
19°C0%2%1/65
20°C0%5%3/65
21°C0%5%3/65
22°C0%3%2/65
23°C0%14%9/65
24°C4%25%16/65
25°C38%14%9/65
≥26°C58%31%20/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Miami

13:53 local
KMIA ↗25.80°, -80.29°sunset 19:17
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 84.9°F p25–p75 82.0°F–90.0°F
typical 14:00 89.1°F p25–p75 88.0°F–90.0°F
noon → peak climb +0.0°F
live obs
82°F
KMIA 1753Z
today high so far
82°F
at 13:53
forecast peak
85°F
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.65°C
82°F
left to climb+0.9°
peakalready set
KMIA 25.80°, -80.29°
observed 13:53 local
usually warmestsunset 19:17
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
72°76°80°84°88°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 83°FNOW 82°F
72°76°80°84°88°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 83°FNOW 82°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KMIA, 8 obs
METAR KMIA 231753Z 13003KT 10SM FEW020 SCT080 OVC170 28/23 A2994 RMK AO2 SLP140 60001 T02780233 10278 20244 58014
local temp dew wind cloud wx
13:53 82° 74° 130/03 OVC170
12:53 81° 74° 000/00 OVC170
11:53 80° 74° OVC190
10:53 79° 74° 000/00 OVC190
09:53 78° 75° 000/00 BKN050
09:31 77° 75° OVC150
08:53 76° 75° 160/06 OVC150 -RA
08:41 76° 75° 170/06 OVC160 -RA
current state
METAR 82°F at 13:53 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (82°F–90°F) KMIA, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°F (n=13) — projects to ~82°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°F/h, dewpoint rising (74°F→74°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (82°F @ 13:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥90°F possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥90°F
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.9°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 83°F, current 82°F @ 13:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
93°F
14d high, 2026 09 12
avg high89.1°F
p25–p7588.0°F – 90.0°F
days ≥90°F3 / 14
days ≥91°F2 / 14
days ≥92°F1 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°F med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°F med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°F med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°F med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00-3.4°F med, n=13
today @ 12:0081°F
implied peak81°F vs ecmwf 83°F
heating passport climb to peak 64 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
82° now at 14:00peak already set on 89% of days by nowtypically only +0.9° left (p90 +4.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0080°+9.5°0%
0179°+9.9°0%
0279°+10.0°0%
0379°+10.2°0%
0479°+10.3°0%
0579°+10.3°0%
0679°+10.1°0%
0780°+9.5°0%
0883°+6.8°0%
0985°+4.7°2%
1086°+3.0°12%
1187°+2.2°31%
1287°+1.5°52%
1387°+1.4°78%
1487°+0.9°89%
1585°+1.0°95%
1685°+0.6°98%
1784°+0.3°100%
1883°+0.4°100%
1982°+0.3°100%
2081°+0.4°100%
2181°+0.2°100%
2281°+0.3°100%
2380°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now SE, 3kt
VARIABLE+1.1°n=29
SE+0.9°n=61
W+0.7°n=13
S+0.4°n=21
E+0.2°n=115
NE-0.6°n=80
N-2.7°n=21
NW-2.8°n=19
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 80°F 76°F 85°F 78°F 83°F
01:00 79°F 76°F 85°F 78°F 83°F
02:00 79°F 76°F 84°F 78°F 81°F
03:00 79°F 75°F 84°F 76°F 81°F
04:00 80°F 75°F 84°F 76°F 81°F
05:00 79°F 76°F 83°F 77°F 81°F
06:00 79°F 76°F 84°F 77°F 81°F
07:00 79°F 76°F 84°F 77°F 82°F
08:00 79°F 76°F 84°F 77°F 82°F
09:00 82°F 76°F 86°F 80°F 84°F
10:00 85°F 78°F 87°F 81°F 86°F
11:00 87°F 78°F 90°F 83°F 89°F
12:00 88°F 78°F 91°F 84°F 90°F
13:00 85°F 74°F 91°F 82°F 90°F
14:00 87°F 75°F 93°F 83°F 89°F
15:00 88°F 77°F 91°F 80°F 89°F
16:00 88°F 74°F 92°F 82°F 89°F
17:00 85°F 75°F 89°F 82°F 89°F
18:00 85°F 77°F 88°F 81°F 88°F
19:00 84°F 77°F 87°F 80°F 86°F
20:00 82°F 76°F 86°F 81°F 85°F
21:00 81°F 77°F 85°F 79°F 84°F
22:00 81°F 77°F 85°F 78°F 84°F
23:00 80°F 77°F 85°F 78°F 82°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 88°F
09-21 88°F
09-20 89°F
09-19 89°F
09-18 88°F
09-17 84°F
09-16 91°F
09-15 92°F
09-14 89°F
09-13 90°F
09-12 93°F
09-11 88°F
09-10 90°F
09-09 90°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office85.1°90.3°1.18°most accurate here
NOAA GFS81.7°84.2°1.36°
Environment Canada GEM83.3°85.5°1.77°
DWD ICON87.4°91.6°2.11°
ECMWF IFS81.9°86.7°2.39°
JMA GSM83.5°88.2°2.52°
CMA GRAPES82.4°91.0°3.28°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office1.18°-0.20°82%
NOAA GFS1.36°-0.89°70%
Environment Canada GEM1.77°-0.78°67%
DWD ICON2.11°-2.01°45%
ECMWF IFS2.39°-2.32°43%
JMA GSM2.52°-2.03°38%
CMA GRAPES3.28°-3.22°17%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z100° 7kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; few at 2,000ft; scattered at 10,000ft; overcast at 17,000ft
from24/02Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; few at 1,500ft; broken at 3,000ft
from24/15Z onwards340° 6kt; >6 statute miles; few at 1,500ft; broken at 3,000ft
TAF KMIA 231733Z 2318/2424 10007KT P6SM VCSH FEW020 SCT100 OVC170 FM240200 VRB03KT P6SM FEW015 BKN030 FM241500 34006KT P6SM FEW015 BKN030
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤75°F0%0%0/65
76-77°F0%0%0/65
78-79°F0%0%0/65
80-81°F0%0%0/65
82-83°F69%2%1/65
84-85°F19%9%6/65
86-87°F5%8%5/65
88-89°F1%26%17/65
90-91°F0%38%25/65
92-93°F0%14%9/65
≥94°F0%3%2/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 95% and climatology to 100%.

Milan

19:50 local
LIMC ↗45.63°, 8.72°sunset 19:22
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 25.0°C p25–p75 22.0°C–26.0°C
typical 14:00 26.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–27.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
live obs
20°C
LIMC 1750Z
today high so far
24°C
at 16:20
forecast peak
23°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.53°C
20°C
left to climb+0.2°
peakalready set
LIMC 45.63°, 8.72°
observed 19:50 local
usually warmestsunset 19:22
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
11°15°19°23°27°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 22°CNOW 20°C
11°15°19°23°27°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 22°CNOW 20°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LIMC, 8 obs
METAR LIMC 231750Z 20005KT CAVOK 20/10 Q1022 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
19:50 20° 10° 200/05 CAVOK
19:20 21° 10° 200/04 CAVOK
18:50 22° 200/04 CAVOK
18:20 22° 10° 190/05 CAVOK
17:50 23° 280/04 CAVOK
17:20 23° 230/05 CAVOK
16:50 23° 140/04 CAVOK
16:20 24° 10° CAVOK
current state
METAR 20°C at 19:50 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (25°C this hour) LIMC, running behind climatology
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 23°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint stable (10°C→10°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 22°C, current 20°C @ 19:50
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
30°C
14d high, 2026 09 21
avg high26.0°C
p25–p7524.0°C – 27.0°C
days ≥27°C5 / 14
days ≥28°C3 / 14
days ≥29°C2 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+2.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 22°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
20° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0016°+7.2°6%
0115°+7.4°6%
0215°+7.7°6%
0315°+7.8°6%
0415°+8.1°6%
0515°+8.2°6%
0614°+8.5°5%
0714°+8.4°5%
0816°+6.5°5%
0918°+4.9°6%
1019°+3.7°8%
1120°+2.6°9%
1221°+1.8°11%
1321°+1.2°26%
1422°+0.7°49%
1522°+0.3°83%
1622°+0.1°97%
1722°+0.0°100%
1821°+0.0°100%
1919°+0.1°100%
2017°+0.2°100%
2117°+0.2°100%
2216°+0.2°100%
2316°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now S, 5kt
NW+1.8°n=19
W+1.0°n=41
VARIABLE+0.6°n=52
SW-0.2°n=32
S-0.3°n=15
SE-0.6°n=35
E-0.8°n=23
NE-1.5°n=29
N-1.8°n=44
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 19°C 17°C 20°C 17°C 19°C
01:00 19°C 16°C 21°C 18°C 20°C
02:00 18°C 16°C 21°C 18°C 19°C
03:00 18°C 17°C 21°C 18°C 19°C
04:00 18°C 15°C 22°C 17°C 19°C
05:00 18°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
06:00 18°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
07:00 18°C 16°C 21°C 16°C 18°C
08:00 18°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
09:00 20°C 18°C 21°C 19°C 21°C
10:00 20°C 18°C 23°C 19°C 22°C
11:00 22°C 18°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
12:00 23°C 19°C 27°C 21°C 25°C
13:00 24°C 20°C 28°C 23°C 25°C
14:00 25°C 19°C 29°C 23°C 26°C
15:00 25°C 20°C 30°C 24°C 27°C
16:00 26°C 21°C 29°C 23°C 27°C
17:00 26°C 22°C 29°C 23°C 27°C
18:00 26°C 22°C 30°C 23°C 27°C
19:00 25°C 21°C 28°C 22°C 26°C
20:00 23°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
21:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
22:00 19°C 18°C 23°C 19°C 20°C
23:00 19°C 17°C 20°C 18°C 20°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 25°C
09-21 30°C
09-20 27°C
09-19 26°C
09-18 22°C
09-17 24°C
09-16 28°C
09-15 27°C
09-14 29°C
09-13 26°C
09-12 26°C
09-11 25°C
09-10 22°C
09-09 24°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON22.6°23.6°0.53°most accurate here
UK Met Office22.6°24.0°0.61°
Environment Canada GEM23.2°25.3°0.74°
ECMWF IFS21.5°22.7°1.04°
NOAA GFS22.8°23.5°1.52°
JMA GSM21.9°22.9°2.43°
CMA GRAPES19.7°20.5°2.81°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.53°-0.07°91%
UK Met Office0.61°-0.22°86%
Environment Canada GEM0.74°-0.14°80%
ECMWF IFS1.04°-0.75°64%
NOAA GFS1.52°+1.02°36%
JMA GSM2.43°-2.43°20%
CMA GRAPES2.81°-2.81°5%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Zvariable 5kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
TAF LIMC 231700Z 2318/2424 VRB05KT CAVOK
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤18°C0%14%9/66
19°C0%5%3/66
20°C0%5%3/66
21°C0%14%9/66
22°C0%11%7/66
23°C0%5%3/66
24°C100%20%13/66
25°C0%5%3/66
26°C0%12%8/66
27°C0%5%3/66
≥28°C0%8%5/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Moscow

21:00 local
UUWW ↗55.59°, 37.26°sunset 18:29
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 14.0°C p25–p75 12.0°C–15.0°C
typical 15:00 18.0°C p25–p75 17.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
17°C
UUWW 1800Z
today high so far
18°C
at 20:00
forecast peak
18°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.64°C
17°C
left to climb+0.2°
peakalready set
UUWW 55.59°, 37.26°
observed 21:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:29
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
11°13°15°17°19°22:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 17°C
11°13°15°17°19°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 17°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR UUWW, 8 obs
METAR UUWW 231800Z 10006MPS CAVOK 17/14 Q1016 R06/150055 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:00 17° 14° 100/12 CAVOK
20:30 17° 14° 100/14 CAVOK
20:00 18° 14° 090/14 CAVOK
19:30 17° 15° 090/10 CAVOK
19:00 17° 15° 070/10 BKN031
18:30 17° 15° 070/08 OVC029
18:00 17° 15° 070/08 OVC030
17:30 17° 15° 060/08 OVC031
current state
METAR 17°C at 21:00 local, +3.0°C vs 14d-median (14°C this hour) UUWW, running ahead of climatology
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 17°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (14°C→14°C) drying — accelerates warming
Today vs ECMWF: running +3.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 17°C, current 17°C @ 21:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
14d high,
avg high18.0°C
p25–p7517.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥19°C0 / 0
days ≥20°C0 / 0
days ≥21°C0 / 0
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 17°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
17° now at 21:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0011°+6.3°9%
0111°+6.6°9%
0211°+7.0°11%
0310°+7.4°11%
0410°+7.6°11%
0510°+8.0°11%
06+8.2°11%
0710°+7.9°11%
0811°+6.9°9%
0912°+5.4°9%
1014°+3.9°11%
1115°+2.7°12%
1216°+1.7°22%
1317°+1.0°38%
1417°+0.4°68%
1517°+0.2°86%
1617°+0.0°100%
1716°+0.0°100%
1815°+0.0°100%
1914°+0.0°100%
2013°+0.1°100%
2112°+0.2°100%
2212°+0.1°100%
2312°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 12kt
S+2.1°n=57
SE+1.6°n=47
SW+1.0°n=83
W-0.5°n=52
E-1.6°n=40
NE-1.6°n=21
NW-2.3°n=47
N-2.5°n=29
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 12°C 10°C 17°C 10°C 14°C
01:00 12°C 9°C 17°C 10°C 14°C
02:00 11°C 8°C 16°C 10°C 13°C
03:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 9°C 14°C
04:00 10°C 6°C 16°C 8°C 13°C
05:00 10°C 6°C 14°C 8°C 13°C
06:00 10°C 6°C 14°C 8°C 13°C
07:00 10°C 7°C 14°C 9°C 13°C
08:00 11°C 9°C 14°C 9°C 13°C
09:00 13°C 11°C 15°C 12°C 14°C
10:00 14°C 11°C 21°C 13°C 16°C
11:00 15°C 14°C 22°C 14°C 17°C
12:00 16°C 14°C 24°C 15°C 18°C
13:00 17°C 15°C 24°C 15°C 18°C
14:00 17°C 15°C 24°C 16°C 18°C
15:00 17°C 14°C 25°C 16°C 18°C
16:00 18°C 15°C 24°C 16°C 18°C
17:00 17°C 15°C 24°C 16°C 18°C
18:00 16°C 14°C 23°C 15°C 18°C
19:00 15°C 13°C 20°C 14°C 17°C
20:00 14°C 12°C 20°C 13°C 16°C
21:00 14°C 11°C 19°C 12°C 15°C
22:00 13°C 11°C 17°C 11°C 15°C
23:00 13°C 10°C 17°C 11°C 14°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
no recent actuals
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON17.8°20.7°0.64°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM17.0°19.9°0.70°
ECMWF IFS17.6°21.4°0.72°
UK Met Office17.3°17.8°0.81°
JMA GSM18.7°23.9°0.83°
CMA GRAPES16.8°20.2°0.86°
NOAA GFS16.3°19.8°0.93°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.64°-0.22°78%
Environment Canada GEM0.70°+0.27°78%
ECMWF IFS0.72°+0.02°75%
UK Met Office0.81°+0.45°71%
JMA GSM0.83°-0.21°67%
CMA GRAPES0.86°-0.43°63%
NOAA GFS0.93°-0.03°72%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max20°at 24/09Zmin 12°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z110° 10mps gusting 17; 6000m; broken at 1,600ft
temporarily23/20Z→24/07Z2000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 500ft; broken at 2,000ft (CB)
becoming24/07Z→24/09Z170° 9mps gusting 16
TAF UUWW 231714Z 2318/2418 11010G17MPS 6000 BKN016 TX20/2409Z TN12/2418Z TEMPO 2320/2407 2000 TSRA FEW005 BKN020CB BECMG 2407/2409 17009G16MPS
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤13°C0%23%15/66
14°C0%9%6/66
15°C0%3%2/66
16°C0%8%5/66
17°C0%3%2/66
18°C100%8%5/66
19°C0%5%3/66
20°C0%9%6/66
21°C0%2%1/66
22°C0%12%8/66
≥23°C0%20%13/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Munich

19:50 local
EDDM ↗48.35°, 11.79°sunset 19:10
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 18.0°C p25–p75 16.0°C–20.0°C
typical 16:00 22.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–23.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
live obs
11°C
EDDM 1750Z
today high so far
19°C
at 17:20
forecast peak
18°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.57°C
11°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
EDDM 48.35°, 11.79°
observed 19:50 local
usually warmestsunset 19:10
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-1°14°19°24°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 11°C
-1°14°19°24°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 11°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR EDDM, 8 obs
METAR EDDM 231750Z AUTO VRB01KT CAVOK 11/06 Q1024 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
19:50 11° CAVOK
19:20 14° 090/03 CAVOK
18:50 17° 070/02 CAVOK
18:20 17° CAVOK
17:50 18° CAVOK
17:20 19° 020/03 CAVOK
16:50 19° 010/03 CAVOK
16:20 19° CAVOK
current state
METAR 11°C at 19:50 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (18°C this hour) EDDM, running behind climatology
Peak hour 16:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 19°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -4.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (5°C→6°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 17°C, current 11°C @ 19:50
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
27°C
14d high, 2026 09 16
avg high22.0°C
p25–p7519.0°C – 23.0°C
days ≥23°C5 / 14
days ≥24°C3 / 14
days ≥25°C1 / 14
peak hour
16:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 16:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+2.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 17°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 20:00peak already set on 98% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0010°+8.0°6%
0110°+8.2°6%
0210°+8.5°6%
0310°+8.8°6%
04+9.0°6%
05+9.0°6%
06+8.9°5%
0710°+8.6°5%
0812°+6.6°5%
0913°+5.0°5%
1015°+3.6°6%
1116°+2.5°8%
1217°+1.5°20%
1317°+1.0°38%
1418°+0.4°68%
1518°+0.1°89%
1618°+0.1°97%
1717°+0.0°98%
1816°+0.0°98%
1914°+0.1°98%
2013°+0.1°98%
2112°+0.1°98%
2211°+0.1°98%
2311°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
VARIABLE+1.5°n=18
SW+1.1°n=37
SE+0.6°n=13
W-0.2°n=130
E-0.2°n=80
NE-0.4°n=25
NW-1.7°n=20
N-2.9°n=11
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 12°C 4°C 16°C 8°C 13°C
01:00 12°C 3°C 15°C 8°C 12°C
02:00 11°C 3°C 16°C 8°C 12°C
03:00 10°C 2°C 16°C 8°C 13°C
04:00 11°C 2°C 16°C 8°C 12°C
05:00 10°C 1°C 15°C 9°C 12°C
06:00 10°C 1°C 15°C 8°C 12°C
07:00 11°C 0°C 15°C 9°C 12°C
08:00 12°C 4°C 16°C 10°C 13°C
09:00 13°C 7°C 18°C 12°C 15°C
10:00 16°C 11°C 20°C 14°C 17°C
11:00 18°C 13°C 24°C 16°C 19°C
12:00 19°C 14°C 25°C 16°C 20°C
13:00 20°C 14°C 27°C 17°C 21°C
14:00 20°C 15°C 25°C 18°C 22°C
15:00 20°C 16°C 24°C 18°C 22°C
16:00 20°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
17:00 20°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 23°C
18:00 20°C 15°C 24°C 18°C 21°C
19:00 18°C 15°C 22°C 16°C 20°C
20:00 16°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
21:00 14°C 8°C 18°C 13°C 15°C
22:00 14°C 6°C 16°C 11°C 15°C
23:00 14°C 5°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 17°C
09-21 17°C
09-20 24°C
09-19 22°C
09-18 20°C
09-17 20°C
09-16 27°C
09-15 24°C
09-14 22°C
09-13 23°C
09-12 23°C
09-11 20°C
09-10 18°C
09-09 21°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON17.8°17.7°0.57°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM16.7°16.0°1.00°
UK Met Office16.7°15.4°1.25°
NOAA GFS17.4°14.7°1.67°
ECMWF IFS16.9°15.9°1.94°
CMA GRAPES15.8°16.6°2.30°
JMA GSM15.7°16.2°3.04°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.57°-0.14°86%
Environment Canada GEM1.00°-0.53°61%
UK Met Office1.25°-0.96°41%
NOAA GFS1.67°-1.35°26%
ECMWF IFS1.94°-1.87°18%
CMA GRAPES2.30°-2.13°14%
JMA GSM3.04°-2.89°7%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Zvariable 2kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/04Z→24/06Z260° 9kt
becoming24/15Z→24/17Zvariable 3kt
TAF EDDM 231700Z 2318/2424 VRB02KT CAVOK BECMG 2404/2406 26009KT BECMG 2415/2417 VRB03KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤13°C0%15%10/66
14°C0%11%7/66
15°C0%12%8/66
16°C0%2%1/66
17°C0%8%5/66
18°C0%5%3/66
19°C100%9%6/66
20°C0%6%4/66
21°C0%5%3/66
22°C0%9%6/66
≥23°C0%20%13/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

New York

13:51 local
KLGA ↗40.78°, -73.87°sunset 18:51
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 75.9°F p25–p75 69.1°F–80.1°F
typical 15:00 78.1°F p25–p75 71.1°F–81.0°F
noon → peak climb +5.6°F
live obs
68°F
KLGA 1751Z
today high so far
68°F
at 13:51
forecast peak
70°F
Environment Canada GEM most accurate here, MAE 0.82°C
68°F
left to climb+1.2°
peakalready set
KLGA 40.78°, -73.87°
observed 13:51 local
usually warmestsunset 18:51
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
41°49°57°65°73°81°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 66°FNOW 68°F
41°49°57°65°73°81°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 66°FNOW 68°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KLGA, 8 obs
METAR KLGA 231751Z 05019G27KT 10SM SCT035 BKN044 BKN140 BKN250 20/10 A3045 RMK AO2 PK WND 05032/1658 SLP309 T02000100 10200 20150 58005
local temp dew wind cloud wx
13:51 68° 50° 050/19 BKN044
12:51 65° 51° 060/21 BKN041
11:51 65° 51° 050/20 BKN030
10:51 63° 51° 050/22 BKN250
09:51 63° 50° 060/20 BKN180
08:51 62° 50° 070/24 BKN025
07:51 60° 51° 050/18 BKN025
07:07 58° 50° 040/20 BKN025
current state
METAR 68°F at 13:51 local, -7.9°F vs 14d-median (76°F this hour) KLGA, running behind climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +5.6°F (n=13) — projects to ~74°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint stable (51°F→50°F) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (68°F @ 13:51) with climatology suggests peak ≥79°F possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥79°F
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.9°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 66°F, current 68°F @ 13:51
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
87°F
14d high, 2026 09 10
avg high78.1°F
p25–p7571.1°F – 81.0°F
days ≥79°F6 / 14
days ≥80°F5 / 14
days ≥81°F3 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.4°F med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+4.0°F med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+5.6°F med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+5.6°F med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00+5.6°F med, n=13
today @ 12:0065°F
implied peak71°F vs ecmwf 66°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
68° now at 14:00peak already set on 57% of days by nowtypically only +1.2° left (p90 +3.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0067°+7.2°8%
0166°+7.7°9%
0265°+8.3°9%
0365°+8.8°9%
0464°+9.2°9%
0564°+9.5°9%
0664°+9.7°9%
0765°+9.1°12%
0866°+8.1°12%
0967°+6.7°12%
1068°+5.1°14%
1170°+3.8°15%
1271°+2.8°18%
1372°+2.0°29%
1472°+1.2°57%
1573°+0.7°78%
1672°+0.4°86%
1772°+0.2°97%
1870°+0.3°98%
1970°+0.3°98%
2069°+0.2°98%
2168°+0.2°100%
2268°+0.1°100%
2367°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NE, 19kt
S+4.0°n=35
SW+3.0°n=44
VARIABLE+2.0°n=15
SE+1.5°n=11
E+1.2°n=15
W+0.8°n=45
NW-0.0°n=79
N-1.0°n=39
NE-3.4°n=95
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 73°F 61°F 79°F 66°F 76°F
01:00 70°F 59°F 78°F 65°F 76°F
02:00 70°F 57°F 77°F 65°F 76°F
03:00 68°F 59°F 77°F 65°F 76°F
04:00 68°F 59°F 77°F 64°F 75°F
05:00 67°F 57°F 76°F 64°F 73°F
06:00 67°F 57°F 76°F 63°F 73°F
07:00 67°F 58°F 75°F 63°F 72°F
08:00 69°F 60°F 75°F 63°F 72°F
09:00 70°F 62°F 76°F 64°F 72°F
10:00 71°F 62°F 78°F 65°F 73°F
11:00 71°F 62°F 80°F 66°F 73°F
12:00 72°F 65°F 83°F 67°F 76°F
13:00 76°F 67°F 84°F 69°F 80°F
14:00 77°F 67°F 85°F 70°F 80°F
15:00 78°F 68°F 87°F 70°F 80°F
16:00 78°F 69°F 86°F 70°F 81°F
17:00 76°F 68°F 86°F 70°F 81°F
18:00 77°F 67°F 86°F 70°F 81°F
19:00 74°F 66°F 85°F 70°F 79°F
20:00 74°F 66°F 84°F 71°F 79°F
21:00 73°F 66°F 83°F 70°F 77°F
22:00 74°F 64°F 82°F 68°F 77°F
23:00 73°F 62°F 81°F 66°F 77°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 69°F
09-21 70°F
09-20 71°F
09-19 70°F
09-18 81°F
09-17 84°F
09-16 78°F
09-15 72°F
09-14 77°F
09-13 81°F
09-12 78°F
09-11 80°F
09-10 87°F
09-09 83°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
Environment Canada GEM69.6°69.3°1.48°most accurate here
DWD ICON67.5°66.6°1.51°
NOAA GFS66.2°64.2°1.58°
ECMWF IFS66.4°65.1°1.82°
JMA GSM67.1°69.4°1.83°
UK Met Office67.8°67.1°1.87°
CMA GRAPES67.6°67.6°2.84°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
Environment Canada GEM1.48°+0.10°75%
DWD ICON1.51°+0.48°78%
NOAA GFS1.58°+1.22°75%
ECMWF IFS1.82°-0.12°62%
JMA GSM1.83°-0.38°55%
UK Met Office1.87°+1.01°67%
CMA GRAPES2.84°-2.15°37%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z050° 20kt gusting 30; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 18,000ft; broken at 25,000ft
from23/23Z onwards040° 17kt gusting 24; >6 statute miles; scattered at 4,500ft; scattered at 25,000ft
from24/12Z onwards040° 18kt gusting 28; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,500ft; broken at 5,000ft
TAF KLGA 231723Z 2318/2424 05020G30KT P6SM SCT025 BKN180 BKN250 FM232300 04017G24KT P6SM SCT045 SCT250 FM241200 04018G28KT P6SM SCT035 BKN050
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤57°F0%0%0/65
58-59°F0%0%0/65
60-61°F0%0%0/65
62-63°F0%8%5/65
64-65°F0%5%3/65
66-67°F0%11%7/65
68-69°F92%3%2/65
70-71°F8%12%8/65
72-73°F0%9%6/65
74-75°F0%8%5/65
≥76°F0%45%29/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Paris

20:00 local
LFPB ↗48.97°, 2.44°sunset 19:47
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–23.0°C
typical 16:00 25.0°C p25–p75 22.0°C–27.0°C
noon → peak climb +3.0°C
live obs
24°C
LFPB 1800Z
today high so far
27°C
at 18:00
forecast peak
25°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.38°C
24°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
LFPB 48.97°, 2.44°
observed 20:00 local
usually warmestsunset 19:47
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°14°18°22°26°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 25°CNOW 24°C
10°15°20°25°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 25°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LFPB, 8 obs
METAR LFPB 231800Z AUTO 32005KT CAVOK 24/10 Q1023 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:00 24° 10° 320/05 CAVOK
19:30 25° 10° 310/04 CAVOK
19:00 25° 10° 320/04 CAVOK
18:30 26° 10° 300/04 CAVOK
18:00 27° 10° 300/05 CAVOK
17:30 27° 260/05 CAVOK
17:00 27° 290/06 CAVOK
16:30 27° 260/05 CAVOK
current state
METAR 24°C at 20:00 local, +3.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) LFPB, running ahead of climatology
Peak hour 16:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 27°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint stable (10°C→10°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running +3.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 25°C, current 24°C @ 20:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
33°C
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high25.0°C
p25–p7522.0°C – 27.0°C
days ≥26°C4 / 14
days ≥27°C3 / 14
days ≥28°C2 / 14
peak hour
16:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 16:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+3.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+3.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+3.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 25°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0015°+5.5°5%
0114°+6.1°6%
0214°+6.5°8%
0313°+7.0°8%
0413°+7.3°8%
0512°+7.6°8%
0612°+7.9°8%
0712°+8.2°6%
0812°+8.2°6%
0913°+7.1°6%
1014°+5.7°6%
1116°+4.3°8%
1217°+3.0°11%
1318°+2.0°18%
1419°+1.4°26%
1519°+0.7°52%
1620°+0.4°78%
1720°+0.2°100%
1819°+0.1°100%
1918°+0.0°100%
2017°+0.1°100%
2116°+0.1°100%
2216°+0.0°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NW, 5kt
SE+2.1°n=49
S+1.3°n=80
E-0.4°n=31
SW-0.4°n=87
NE-0.5°n=28
W-1.0°n=37
NW-1.1°n=19
N-2.7°n=27
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 13°C 21°C 15°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 12°C 20°C 15°C 17°C
02:00 15°C 11°C 19°C 13°C 17°C
03:00 14°C 10°C 20°C 13°C 16°C
04:00 14°C 10°C 20°C 13°C 15°C
05:00 14°C 9°C 19°C 12°C 15°C
06:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 12°C 14°C
07:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 14°C
08:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 15°C
09:00 15°C 12°C 20°C 13°C 16°C
10:00 18°C 14°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
11:00 19°C 18°C 26°C 18°C 20°C
12:00 21°C 19°C 28°C 19°C 22°C
13:00 22°C 19°C 30°C 20°C 23°C
14:00 23°C 20°C 31°C 21°C 24°C
15:00 24°C 20°C 32°C 22°C 25°C
16:00 24°C 21°C 33°C 22°C 26°C
17:00 24°C 21°C 32°C 22°C 27°C
18:00 24°C 20°C 31°C 22°C 26°C
19:00 23°C 19°C 29°C 21°C 25°C
20:00 21°C 19°C 27°C 20°C 23°C
21:00 19°C 17°C 25°C 18°C 22°C
22:00 18°C 15°C 23°C 17°C 20°C
23:00 18°C 14°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 24°C
09-21 22°C
09-20 23°C
09-19 25°C
09-18 22°C
09-17 22°C
09-16 22°C
09-15 33°C
09-14 29°C
09-13 27°C
09-12 26°C
09-11 25°C
09-10 21°C
09-09 22°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON25.3°25.1°0.38°most accurate here
UK Met Office25.4°23.8°0.44°
Environment Canada GEM25.6°24.4°0.79°
NOAA GFS25.6°24.2°0.88°
ECMWF IFS25.5°23.4°0.99°
JMA GSM21.4°22.0°1.73°
CMA GRAPES20.9°18.4°2.72°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.38°-0.13°99%
UK Met Office0.44°-0.12°96%
Environment Canada GEM0.79°-0.55°71%
NOAA GFS0.88°+0.41°67%
ECMWF IFS0.99°-0.96°61%
JMA GSM1.73°-1.73°33%
CMA GRAPES2.72°-2.70°5%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z290° 8kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/02Z→24/04Z030° 5kt
temporarily40%24/04Z→24/08Z4000m; mist; broken at 600ft
temporarily30%24/05Z→24/07Z800m; patches of fog; broken at 400ft
TAF LFPB 231700Z 2318/2418 29008KT CAVOK BECMG 2402/2404 03005KT PROB40 TEMPO 2404/2408 4000 BR BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2405/2407 0800 BCFG BKN004
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤21°C0%62%41/66
22°C0%11%7/66
23°C0%6%4/66
24°C0%8%5/66
25°C0%3%2/66
26°C0%9%6/66
27°C100%0%0/66
28°C0%0%0/66
29°C0%0%0/66
30°C0%0%0/66
≥31°C0%2%1/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Paris

20:00 local
LFPB ↗48.97°, 2.44°sunset 19:47
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–23.0°C
typical 16:00 25.0°C p25–p75 22.0°C–27.0°C
noon → peak climb +3.0°C
live obs
24°C
LFPB 1800Z
today high so far
27°C
at 18:00
forecast low
11°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.38°C
24°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
LFPB 48.97°, 2.44°
observed 20:00 local
usually warmestsunset 19:47
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°14°18°22°26°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 24°C
10°15°20°25°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LFPB, 8 obs
METAR LFPB 231800Z AUTO 32005KT CAVOK 24/10 Q1023 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:00 24° 10° 320/05 CAVOK
19:30 25° 10° 310/04 CAVOK
19:00 25° 10° 320/04 CAVOK
18:30 26° 10° 300/04 CAVOK
18:00 27° 10° 300/05 CAVOK
17:30 27° 260/05 CAVOK
17:00 27° 290/06 CAVOK
16:30 27° 260/05 CAVOK
current state
METAR 24°C at 20:00 local, +3.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) LFPB, running ahead of climatology
Peak hour 16:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 27°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint stable (10°C→10°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running +3.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 11°C, current 24°C @ 20:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
17°C
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high25.0°C
p25–p7522.0°C – 27.0°C
days ≥26°C0 / 14
days ≥27°C0 / 14
days ≥28°C0 / 14
peak hour
16:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 16:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+3.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+3.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+3.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 11°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0015°+5.5°5%
0114°+6.1°6%
0214°+6.5°8%
0313°+7.0°8%
0413°+7.3°8%
0512°+7.6°8%
0612°+7.9°8%
0712°+8.2°6%
0812°+8.2°6%
0913°+7.1°6%
1014°+5.7°6%
1116°+4.3°8%
1217°+3.0°11%
1318°+2.0°18%
1419°+1.4°26%
1519°+0.7°52%
1620°+0.4°78%
1720°+0.2°100%
1819°+0.1°100%
1918°+0.0°100%
2017°+0.1°100%
2116°+0.1°100%
2216°+0.0°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NW, 5kt
SE+2.1°n=49
S+1.3°n=80
E-0.4°n=31
SW-0.4°n=87
NE-0.5°n=28
W-1.0°n=37
NW-1.1°n=19
N-2.7°n=27
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 13°C 21°C 15°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 17°C
02:00 15°C 11°C 19°C 13°C 17°C
03:00 14°C 10°C 20°C 13°C 16°C
04:00 14°C 10°C 20°C 13°C 15°C
05:00 14°C 9°C 19°C 12°C 15°C
06:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 12°C 15°C
07:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 14°C
08:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 12°C 15°C
09:00 15°C 12°C 20°C 13°C 16°C
10:00 18°C 16°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
11:00 19°C 18°C 26°C 18°C 20°C
12:00 21°C 19°C 28°C 20°C 22°C
13:00 22°C 19°C 30°C 20°C 23°C
14:00 23°C 20°C 31°C 21°C 24°C
15:00 24°C 20°C 32°C 22°C 25°C
16:00 24°C 21°C 33°C 22°C 26°C
17:00 24°C 21°C 32°C 22°C 27°C
18:00 24°C 20°C 31°C 22°C 26°C
19:00 23°C 19°C 29°C 21°C 25°C
20:00 21°C 19°C 28°C 20°C 23°C
21:00 19°C 17°C 25°C 18°C 22°C
22:00 18°C 15°C 23°C 17°C 20°C
23:00 17°C 14°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 10°C
09-21 11°C
09-20 13°C
09-19 13°C
09-18 11°C
09-17 13°C
09-16 14°C
09-15 17°C
09-14 17°C
09-13 17°C
09-12 12°C
09-11 13°C
09-10 9°C
09-09 13°C
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON11.1°12.3°0.38°most accurate here
UK Met Office14.1°15.4°0.44°
Environment Canada GEM8.6°10.4°0.79°
NOAA GFS13.2°14.0°0.88°
ECMWF IFS11.2°12.4°0.99°
JMA GSM11.9°12.1°1.73°
CMA GRAPES11.3°13.1°2.72°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.38°-0.13°99%
UK Met Office0.44°-0.12°96%
Environment Canada GEM0.79°-0.55°71%
NOAA GFS0.88°+0.41°67%
ECMWF IFS0.99°-0.96°61%
JMA GSM1.73°-1.73°33%
CMA GRAPES2.72°-2.70°5%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z290° 8kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/02Z→24/04Z030° 5kt
temporarily40%24/04Z→24/08Z4000m; mist; broken at 600ft
temporarily30%24/05Z→24/07Z800m; patches of fog; broken at 400ft
TAF LFPB 231700Z 2318/2418 29008KT CAVOK BECMG 2402/2404 03005KT PROB40 TEMPO 2404/2408 4000 BR BKN006 PROB30 TEMPO 2405/2407 0800 BCFG BKN004
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤8°C10%0%0/66
9°C2%0%0/66
10°C1%0%0/66
11°C98%2%1/66
12°C0%2%1/66
13°C0%0%0/66
14°C0%3%2/66
15°C0%9%6/66
16°C0%5%3/66
17°C0%8%5/66
≥18°C0%73%48/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 111% and climatology to 100%.

Qingdao

02:00 local
ZSQD ↗36.27°, 120.37°sunset 17:54
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 20.0°C p25–p75 18.0°C–21.0°C
typical 13:00 29.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–30.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
19°C
ZSQD 1800Z
today high so far
23°C
at 19:00
forecast peak
26°C
ECMWF IFS most accurate here, MAE 0.92°C
19°C
typical further climb+8.1°
expected maximum27°
ZSQD 36.27°, 120.37°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:54
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°14°18°22°26°30°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 26°CNOW 19°C
10°14°18°22°26°30°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 26°CNOW 19°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZSQD, 8 obs
METAR ZSQD 231800Z 00000MPS CAVOK 19/19 Q1017 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 19° 19° 000/00 CAVOK
01:00 20° 18° CAVOK
00:00 22° 18° 200/04 CAVOK
23:00 21° 18° 160/04 CAVOK
22:00 21° 18° 160/06 CAVOK
21:00 22° 18° 160/06 CAVOK
20:00 22° 18° 150/06 CAVOK
19:00 23° 18° 160/08 CAVOK
current state
METAR 19°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (18°C–21°C) ZSQD, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=13) — projects to ~20°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°C/h, dewpoint rising (18°C→19°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (19°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥30°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥30°C
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 26°C, current 19°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
32°C
14d high, 2026 09 16
avg high29.0°C
p25–p7528.0°C – 30.0°C
days ≥30°C4 / 14
days ≥31°C3 / 14
days ≥32°C1 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=13
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~28°C (clim) vs ecmwf 26°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
19° now at 02:00typically +8.1° more (p90 +12.0°)expected peak 27°peak already set on 2% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0019°+7.4°2%
0119°+7.6°2%
0218°+8.1°2%
0318°+8.3°2%
0418°+8.4°2%
0518°+8.8°2%
0618°+9.0°2%
0719°+7.8°2%
0821°+5.9°2%
0922°+4.4°2%
1024°+2.8°8%
1125°+1.7°19%
1226°+0.8°39%
1326°+0.3°72%
1426°+0.2°91%
1526°+0.0°100%
1625°+0.1°100%
1724°+0.0°100%
1823°+0.0°100%
1921°+0.1°100%
2021°+0.2°100%
2120°+0.1°100%
2220°+0.2°100%
2320°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal calm or variable
W+2.6°n=20
S+2.3°n=61
SW+2.0°n=10
SE+1.9°n=31
E+1.2°n=15
NE-0.2°n=44
VARIABLE-0.6°n=15
N-1.6°n=77
NW-1.8°n=83
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 20°C 16°C 23°C 19°C 22°C
01:00 20°C 15°C 23°C 17°C 21°C
02:00 20°C 15°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
03:00 19°C 14°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
04:00 19°C 14°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
05:00 19°C 14°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
06:00 18°C 14°C 21°C 15°C 19°C
07:00 20°C 15°C 22°C 17°C 20°C
08:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
09:00 23°C 19°C 26°C 22°C 25°C
10:00 26°C 20°C 28°C 23°C 27°C
11:00 27°C 24°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
12:00 27°C 22°C 31°C 26°C 29°C
13:00 28°C 26°C 31°C 27°C 30°C
14:00 29°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
15:00 28°C 27°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
16:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
17:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 27°C
18:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
19:00 24°C 21°C 27°C 22°C 24°C
20:00 23°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
22:00 21°C 18°C 23°C 20°C 23°C
23:00 21°C 17°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 31°C
09-21 29°C
09-20 30°C
09-19 29°C
09-18 28°C
09-17 28°C
09-16 32°C
09-15 31°C
09-14 29°C
09-13 28°C
09-12 27°C
09-11 28°C
09-10 27°C
09-09 26°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
ECMWF IFS26.1°23.3°0.92°most accurate here
UK Met Office27.3°22.8°0.96°
DWD ICON26.4°21.7°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM27.2°22.4°1.11°
NOAA GFS28.9°23.1°1.16°
JMA GSM27.7°23.3°1.24°
CMA GRAPES26.0°24.5°1.46°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
ECMWF IFS0.92°-0.42°66%
UK Met Office0.96°+0.42°66%
DWD ICON1.09°-0.58°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.11°-0.32°57%
NOAA GFS1.16°+0.49°50%
JMA GSM1.24°-0.35°50%
CMA GRAPES1.46°-1.05°36%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max28°at 24/06Zmin 18°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z170° 3mps; 1600m; mist; no significant cloud
becoming23/23Z→23/24Z3500m
TAF ZSQD 231502Z 2318/2418 17003MPS 1600 BR NSC TX28/2406Z TN18/2321Z BECMG 2323/2324 3500
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤22°C1%8%5/65
23°C1%5%3/65
24°C2%11%7/65
25°C4%8%5/65
26°C37%18%12/65
27°C37%12%8/65
28°C20%12%8/65
29°C4%11%7/65
30°C2%6%4/65
31°C0%8%5/65
≥32°C0%2%1/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 107% and climatology to 100%.

San Francisco

10:56 local
KSFO ↗37.62°, -122.38°sunset 19:05
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 64.9°F p25–p75 61.0°F–66.0°F
typical 15:00 70.0°F p25–p75 66.0°F–72.0°F
noon → peak climb +3.6°F
live obs
62°F
KSFO 1756Z
today high so far
62°F
at 10:56
forecast peak
76°F
Environment Canada GEM most accurate here, MAE 1.31°C
62°F
typical further climb+4.3°
expected maximum66°
KSFO 37.62°, -122.38°
observed 10:56 local
usually warmestsunset 19:05
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
50°55°60°65°70°75°12:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:00ECMWF 76°FNOW 62°F
50°55°60°65°70°75°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 76°FNOW 62°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KSFO, 8 obs
METAR KSFO 231756Z 02003KT 10SM SCT006 17/13 A2996 RMK AO2 SLP146 T01670133 10167 20128 50006
local temp dew wind cloud wx
10:56 62° 56° 020/03 SCT006
10:22 61° 56° 090/04 SCT008
09:56 60° 56° 000/00 OVC007
08:56 58° 56° 140/05 OVC005
07:56 56° 54° 230/03 OVC006
04:56 55° 52° 000/00 BKN008
03:56 55° 52° 000/00 BKN008
02:56 56° 53° 180/04 FEW007
current state
METAR 62°F at 10:56 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (61°F–66°F) KSFO, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +3.6°F (n=14) — projects to ~66°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (56°F→56°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (62°F @ 10:56) with climatology suggests peak ≥71°F possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥71°F
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.8°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 76°F, current 62°F @ 10:56
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
93°F
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high70.0°F
p25–p7566.0°F – 72.0°F
days ≥71°F7 / 14
days ≥72°F3 / 14
days ≥73°F3 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+3.4°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+3.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+2.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°F med, n=13
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:56)
implied peak~72°F (clim) vs ecmwf 76°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
62° now at 11:00typically +4.3° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 66°peak already set on 8% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0061°+11.0°0%
0161°+11.4°0%
0260°+11.9°0%
0360°+12.3°0%
0460°+12.4°0%
0559°+12.6°0%
0659°+12.6°0%
0760°+11.6°0%
0862°+9.6°0%
0964°+7.7°0%
1066°+5.9°2%
1168°+4.3°8%
1269°+2.7°31%
1370°+1.7°49%
1471°+0.4°88%
1570°+0.1°97%
1669°+0.1°98%
1767°+0.0°100%
1864°+0.0°100%
1963°+0.1°100%
2062°+0.1°100%
2162°+0.1°100%
2262°+0.1°100%
2361°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 3kt
N+4.8°n=39
CALM+3.9°n=32
NE+3.0°n=26
VARIABLE+0.3°n=27
S-0.1°n=12
NW-0.7°n=143
E-1.4°n=13
W-3.4°n=65
SW-3.7°n=18
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 60°F 57°F 79°F 59°F 61°F
01:00 59°F 57°F 77°F 59°F 61°F
02:00 60°F 57°F 73°F 59°F 61°F
03:00 60°F 56°F 74°F 58°F 60°F
04:00 59°F 55°F 72°F 57°F 60°F
05:00 59°F 55°F 72°F 57°F 60°F
06:00 58°F 55°F 72°F 57°F 60°F
07:00 58°F 55°F 69°F 58°F 60°F
08:00 59°F 56°F 73°F 58°F 62°F
09:00 62°F 58°F 73°F 59°F 63°F
10:00 65°F 58°F 78°F 61°F 66°F
11:00 66°F 60°F 79°F 63°F 68°F
12:00 68°F 60°F 83°F 64°F 69°F
13:00 69°F 62°F 82°F 66°F 71°F
14:00 70°F 63°F 82°F 66°F 72°F
15:00 70°F 64°F 93°F 66°F 72°F
16:00 69°F 63°F 93°F 65°F 70°F
17:00 68°F 62°F 91°F 65°F 69°F
18:00 66°F 60°F 89°F 63°F 67°F
19:00 64°F 59°F 89°F 60°F 65°F
20:00 62°F 58°F 85°F 60°F 63°F
21:00 61°F 58°F 83°F 59°F 62°F
22:00 61°F 58°F 80°F 59°F 62°F
23:00 60°F 57°F 80°F 59°F 62°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 66°F
09-21 68°F
09-20 64°F
09-19 67°F
09-18 68°F
09-17 71°F
09-16 64°F
09-15 72°F
09-14 75°F
09-13 70°F
09-12 71°F
09-11 72°F
09-10 84°F
09-09 93°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by14.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
Environment Canada GEM76.1°76.6°2.36°most accurate here
DWD ICON77.2°74.5°2.67°
NOAA GFS80.6°75.9°3.05°
ECMWF IFS73.9°68.0°3.42°
CMA GRAPES80.6°79.7°3.76°
UK Met Office80.8°78.8°3.79°
JMA GSM66.0°63.0°6.68°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
Environment Canada GEM2.36°-1.57°47%
DWD ICON2.67°+1.89°50%
NOAA GFS3.05°+2.86°47%
ECMWF IFS3.42°-3.06°22%
CMA GRAPES3.76°+3.35°41%
UK Met Office3.79°+3.30°26%
JMA GSM6.68°-6.61°1%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Zvariable 5kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 20,000ft
from23/20Z onwards290° 15kt; >6 statute miles; few at 20,000ft
from24/06Z onwards290° 10kt; >6 statute miles; few at 1,000ft
from24/11Z onwards280° 5kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 1,000ft
from24/18Z onwards320° 9kt; >6 statute miles; few at 1,000ft; broken at 25,000ft
from24/21Z onwards290° 15kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 25,000ft
TAF KSFO 231727Z 2318/2424 VRB05KT P6SM SCT200 FM232000 29015KT P6SM FEW200 FM240600 29010KT P6SM FEW010 FM241100 28005KT P6SM BKN010 FM241800 32009KT P6SM FEW010 BKN250 FM242100 29015KT P6SM SCT250
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤71°F7%54%35/65
72-73°F24%14%9/65
74-75°F41%11%7/65
76-77°F24%6%4/65
78-79°F8%6%4/65
80-81°F4%2%1/65
82-83°F2%3%2/65
84-85°F0%0%0/65
86-87°F0%3%2/65
88-89°F0%0%0/65
≥90°F0%2%1/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 110% and climatology to 100%.

Seattle

10:53 local
KSEA ↗47.45°, -122.31°sunset 19:05
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 59.0°F p25–p75 59.0°F–63.0°F
typical 15:00 66.9°F p25–p75 66.0°F–70.0°F
noon → peak climb +7.2°F
live obs
59°F
KSEA 1753Z
today high so far
59°F
at 10:53
forecast peak
66°F
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 1.46°C
59°F
typical further climb+5.9°
expected maximum65°
KSEA 47.45°, -122.31°
observed 10:53 local
usually warmestsunset 19:05
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
45°50°55°60°65°70°12:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:00ECMWF 68°FNOW 59°F
45°50°55°60°65°70°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 68°FNOW 59°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR KSEA, 8 obs
METAR KSEA 231753Z 16009KT 10SM FEW013 BKN034 BKN080 15/10 A3013 RMK AO2 SLP207 T01500100 10150 20117 50008 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
10:53 59° 50° 160/09 BKN034
09:53 56° 50° 180/07 BKN030
08:53 56° 49° 180/04 BKN042
07:53 54° 48° 110/06 BKN200
06:53 53° 48° 150/04 BKN200
05:53 54° 49° 130/06 BKN090
04:53 53° 49° 150/07 BKN090
04:11 54° 50° 140/07 BKN090
current state
METAR 59°F at 10:53 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (59°F–63°F) KSEA, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +7.2°F (n=14) — projects to ~66°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint falling (50°F→50°F) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (59°F @ 10:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥68°F possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥68°F
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°F) ECMWF ens-mean 68°F
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
77°F
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high66.9°F
p25–p7566.0°F – 70.0°F
days ≥68°F7 / 14
days ≥69°F5 / 14
days ≥70°F5 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+3.6°F med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+7.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+7.2°F med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+9.0°F med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+9.0°F med, n=13
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:53)
implied peak~70°F (clim) vs ecmwf 68°F
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
59° now at 11:00typically +5.9° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 65°peak already set on 5% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0058°+11.6°0%
0157°+12.4°0%
0256°+13.1°2%
0355°+13.7°2%
0454°+14.6°2%
0554°+14.7°2%
0654°+14.8°2%
0755°+13.9°2%
0857°+11.9°2%
0959°+10.0°2%
1061°+7.8°3%
1163°+5.9°5%
1265°+3.9°8%
1367°+2.4°14%
1468°+1.2°35%
1568°+0.4°78%
1668°+0.1°95%
1767°+0.1°100%
1864°+0.1°100%
1962°+0.4°100%
2061°+0.3°100%
2160°+0.1°100%
2259°+0.1°100%
2358°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now S, 9kt
NW+3.5°n=40
W+1.5°n=26
N+0.9°n=81
CALM-0.5°n=28
S-0.7°n=70
SE-1.4°n=14
SW-1.5°n=86
VARIABLE-1.7°n=17
NE-1.9°n=13
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 58°F 54°F 64°F 56°F 59°F
01:00 57°F 54°F 63°F 55°F 58°F
02:00 57°F 53°F 63°F 55°F 58°F
03:00 56°F 52°F 64°F 53°F 57°F
04:00 56°F 53°F 64°F 53°F 57°F
05:00 55°F 52°F 61°F 53°F 56°F
06:00 54°F 51°F 59°F 54°F 56°F
07:00 55°F 50°F 59°F 53°F 56°F
08:00 56°F 53°F 62°F 54°F 57°F
09:00 58°F 54°F 61°F 56°F 59°F
10:00 59°F 54°F 64°F 59°F 63°F
11:00 62°F 54°F 67°F 59°F 65°F
12:00 63°F 55°F 69°F 60°F 66°F
13:00 64°F 56°F 71°F 63°F 68°F
14:00 65°F 57°F 74°F 65°F 68°F
15:00 66°F 59°F 76°F 65°F 70°F
16:00 67°F 59°F 77°F 65°F 70°F
17:00 67°F 59°F 77°F 66°F 69°F
18:00 66°F 60°F 77°F 65°F 68°F
19:00 65°F 60°F 76°F 63°F 66°F
20:00 62°F 59°F 72°F 61°F 65°F
21:00 61°F 58°F 70°F 60°F 64°F
22:00 60°F 57°F 68°F 59°F 62°F
23:00 59°F 56°F 66°F 57°F 60°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 68°F
09-21 66°F
09-20 70°F
09-19 63°F
09-18 68°F
09-17 76°F
09-16 74°F
09-15 67°F
09-14 66°F
09-13 60°F
09-12 66°F
09-11 66°F
09-10 70°F
09-09 77°F
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS66.0°57.9°2.62°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS65.7°56.3°3.14°
Environment Canada GEM69.1°61.9°3.20°
DWD ICON64.0°59.7°3.33°
UK Met Office61.7°62.8°3.40°
CMA GRAPES63.1°63.9°3.41°
JMA GSM65.5°57.7°3.58°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS2.62°+1.43°55%
ECMWF IFS3.14°+0.84°34%
Environment Canada GEM3.20°+2.58°50%
DWD ICON3.33°-0.99°24%
UK Met Office3.40°+1.11°29%
CMA GRAPES3.41°-1.07°26%
JMA GSM3.58°-0.65°25%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z190° 6kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 4,000ft; broken at 6,000ft
from23/21Z onwards220° 7kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; few at 1,500ft; broken at 4,000ft
from24/00Z onwards350° 9kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 5,000ft
from24/05Z onwards040° 7kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 25,000ft
from24/12Z onwards030° 7kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 9,000ft; broken at 16,000ft
TAF KSEA 231720Z 2318/2424 19006KT P6SM BKN040 BKN060 FM232100 22007KT P6SM VCSH FEW015 BKN040 FM240000 35009KT P6SM SCT050 FM240500 04007KT P6SM BKN250 FM241200 03007KT P6SM BKN090 BKN160
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤55°F0%0%0/65
56-57°F0%0%0/65
58-59°F1%2%1/65
60-61°F3%8%5/65
62-63°F8%11%7/65
64-65°F28%9%6/65
66-67°F46%11%7/65
68-69°F10%20%13/65
70-71°F1%8%5/65
72-73°F0%9%6/65
≥74°F0%23%15/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 96% and climatology to 100%.

Seoul

03:00 local
RKSI ↗37.47°, 126.45°sunset 18:29
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 20.0°C p25–p75 18.0°C–21.0°C
typical 13:00 27.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–27.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
live obs
21°C
RKSI 1800Z
today high so far
23°C
at 23:30
forecast peak
25°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.77°C
21°C
typical further climb+5.3°
expected maximum26°
RKSI 37.47°, 126.45°
observed 03:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:29
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°18°20°22°24°26°28°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 25°CNOW 21°C
16°18°20°22°24°26°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 25°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RKSI, 8 obs
METAR RKSI 231800Z 32007KT 9999 FEW014 21/20 Q1018 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
03:00 21° 20° 320/07 FEW014
02:30 21° 20° 310/06 SCT014
02:00 21° 20° 310/04 SCT014
01:30 21° 21° 320/05 SCT014
01:00 21° 20° 310/04 SCT020
00:30 21° 20° 310/04 FEW020
00:00 21° 20° 310/06 CAVOK
23:30 23° 21° 300/05 CAVOK
current state
METAR 21°C at 03:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (18°C–21°C) RKSI, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~21°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (20°C→20°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (21°C @ 03:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥28°C possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥28°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 25°C, current 21°C @ 03:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
28°C
14d high, 2026 09 22
avg high27.0°C
p25–p7524.0°C – 27.0°C
days ≥28°C3 / 14
days ≥29°C0 / 14
days ≥30°C0 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 03:00)
implied peak~26°C (clim) vs ecmwf 25°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 03:00typically +5.3° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 26°peak already set on 6% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0021°+4.6°6%
0121°+4.6°6%
0220°+5.0°6%
0320°+5.3°6%
0420°+5.5°6%
0520°+5.6°6%
0620°+5.8°6%
0720°+5.8°8%
0821°+4.9°8%
0921°+4.0°9%
1022°+2.9°11%
1123°+1.9°12%
1224°+1.2°31%
1325°+0.6°56%
1425°+0.3°80%
1525°+0.1°94%
1625°+0.1°100%
1724°+0.0°100%
1823°+0.0°100%
1922°+0.1°100%
2022°+0.1°100%
2122°+0.2°100%
2221°+0.1°100%
2321°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NW, 7kt
S+1.9°n=36
SE+1.8°n=39
SW+1.6°n=14
E+0.6°n=37
W+0.4°n=24
VARIABLE+0.3°n=33
NE+0.1°n=59
N-0.3°n=51
NW-1.8°n=90
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 21°C 17°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
01:00 21°C 17°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
02:00 20°C 17°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
03:00 20°C 17°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
04:00 20°C 17°C 20°C 18°C 20°C
05:00 20°C 17°C 20°C 18°C 20°C
06:00 19°C 16°C 20°C 17°C 20°C
07:00 20°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 20°C
08:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
09:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
10:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
11:00 25°C 20°C 27°C 23°C 25°C
12:00 26°C 21°C 27°C 23°C 26°C
13:00 26°C 21°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
14:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
15:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
16:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
17:00 25°C 21°C 28°C 23°C 26°C
18:00 24°C 22°C 27°C 23°C 25°C
19:00 22°C 20°C 27°C 22°C 23°C
20:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 22°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
22:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
23:00 22°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 28°C
09-21 27°C
09-20 26°C
09-19 28°C
09-18 28°C
09-17 27°C
09-16 27°C
09-15 24°C
09-14 26°C
09-13 24°C
09-12 23°C
09-11 24°C
09-10 22°C
09-09 26°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON25.4°25.1°0.77°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS24.9°26.8°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM24.7°27.0°1.26°
JMA GSM23.1°23.6°2.25°
CMA GRAPES24.0°23.8°2.77°
UK Met Office23.8°24.9°2.82°
NOAA GFS23.4°23.4°3.55°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.77°-0.24°75%
ECMWF IFS1.17°-0.97°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.26°-1.00°42%
JMA GSM2.25°-2.13°18%
CMA GRAPES2.77°-2.69°13%
UK Met Office2.82°-2.74°14%
NOAA GFS3.55°-3.54°9%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max26°at 24/05Zmin 19°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z030° 5kt; 6000m; no significant cloud
becoming24/02Z→24/04Z310° 10kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/13Z→24/15Z040° 6kt; 6000m; no significant cloud
becoming24/20Z→24/22Z100° 7kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
TAF RKSI 231700Z 2318/2424 03005KT 6000 NSC TN19/2321Z TX26/2405Z TN19/2421Z BECMG 2402/2404 31010KT CAVOK BECMG 2413/2415 04006KT 6000 NSC BECMG 2420/2422 10007KT CAVOK
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤20°C0%0%0/65
21°C0%2%1/65
22°C0%6%4/65
23°C2%17%11/65
24°C11%14%9/65
25°C30%17%11/65
26°C45%11%7/65
27°C16%18%12/65
28°C1%8%5/65
29°C0%0%0/65
≥30°C0%8%5/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Seoul

03:00 local
RKSI ↗37.47°, 126.45°sunset 18:29
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 20.0°C p25–p75 18.0°C–21.0°C
typical 12:00 27.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–27.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
21°C
RKSI 1800Z
today high so far
23°C
at 23:30
forecast low
18°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.77°C
21°C
typical further climb+5.3°
expected maximum26°
RKSI 37.47°, 126.45°
observed 03:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:29
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°18°20°22°24°26°28°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 19°CNOW 21°C
16°18°20°22°24°26°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 19°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RKSI, 8 obs
METAR RKSI 231800Z 32007KT 9999 FEW014 21/20 Q1018 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
03:00 21° 20° 320/07 FEW014
02:30 21° 20° 310/06 SCT014
02:00 21° 20° 310/04 SCT014
01:30 21° 21° 320/05 SCT014
01:00 21° 20° 310/04 SCT020
00:30 21° 20° 310/04 FEW020
00:00 21° 20° 310/06 CAVOK
23:30 23° 21° 300/05 CAVOK
current state
METAR 21°C at 03:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (18°C–21°C) RKSI, tracking climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (20°C→20°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (21°C @ 03:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥28°C possible 14d records show 0/14 days reached ≥28°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 19°C, current 21°C @ 03:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
20°C
14d high, 2026 09 21
avg high27.0°C
p25–p7524.0°C – 27.0°C
days ≥28°C0 / 14
days ≥29°C0 / 14
days ≥30°C0 / 14
peak hour
12:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 12:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 03:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 19°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 03:00typically +5.3° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 26°peak already set on 6% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0021°+4.6°6%
0121°+4.6°6%
0220°+5.0°6%
0320°+5.3°6%
0420°+5.5°6%
0520°+5.6°6%
0620°+5.8°6%
0720°+5.8°8%
0821°+4.9°8%
0921°+4.0°9%
1022°+2.9°11%
1123°+1.9°12%
1224°+1.2°31%
1325°+0.6°56%
1425°+0.3°80%
1525°+0.1°94%
1625°+0.1°100%
1724°+0.0°100%
1823°+0.0°100%
1922°+0.1°100%
2022°+0.1°100%
2122°+0.2°100%
2221°+0.1°100%
2321°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now NW, 7kt
S+1.9°n=36
SE+1.8°n=39
SW+1.6°n=14
E+0.6°n=37
W+0.4°n=24
VARIABLE+0.3°n=33
NE+0.1°n=59
N-0.3°n=51
NW-1.8°n=90
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 21°C 17°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
01:00 21°C 17°C 23°C 19°C 21°C
02:00 20°C 17°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
03:00 20°C 17°C 22°C 18°C 21°C
04:00 20°C 17°C 20°C 18°C 20°C
05:00 20°C 17°C 20°C 18°C 20°C
06:00 19°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 20°C
07:00 20°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 20°C
08:00 20°C 18°C 22°C 19°C 21°C
09:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
10:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
11:00 24°C 20°C 27°C 23°C 25°C
12:00 26°C 21°C 27°C 23°C 26°C
13:00 26°C 21°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
14:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
15:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
16:00 26°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 27°C
17:00 25°C 21°C 28°C 24°C 26°C
18:00 24°C 22°C 27°C 23°C 24°C
19:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 22°C 23°C
20:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 22°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
22:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
23:00 22°C 19°C 24°C 21°C 23°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 18°C
09-21 20°C
09-20 19°C
09-19 20°C
09-18 20°C
09-17 18°C
09-16 16°C
09-15 16°C
09-14 19°C
09-13 20°C
09-12 18°C
09-11 17°C
09-10 17°C
09-09 20°C
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON18.4°18.7°0.77°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS18.9°19.3°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM18.6°17.3°1.26°
JMA GSM19.7°20.7°2.25°
CMA GRAPES21.5°22.2°2.77°
UK Met Office21.6°20.3°2.82°
NOAA GFS21.7°18.9°3.55°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.77°-0.24°75%
ECMWF IFS1.17°-0.97°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.26°-1.00°42%
JMA GSM2.25°-2.13°18%
CMA GRAPES2.77°-2.69°13%
UK Met Office2.82°-2.74°14%
NOAA GFS3.55°-3.54°9%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max26°at 24/05Zmin 19°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z030° 5kt; 6000m; no significant cloud
becoming24/02Z→24/04Z310° 10kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming24/13Z→24/15Z040° 6kt; 6000m; no significant cloud
becoming24/20Z→24/22Z100° 7kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
TAF RKSI 231700Z 2318/2424 03005KT 6000 NSC TN19/2321Z TX26/2405Z TN19/2421Z BECMG 2402/2404 31010KT CAVOK BECMG 2413/2415 04006KT 6000 NSC BECMG 2420/2422 10007KT CAVOK
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤15°C1%0%0/65
16°C1%0%0/65
17°C2%0%0/65
18°C6%0%0/65
19°C36%0%0/65
20°C51%0%0/65
21°C2%2%1/65
22°C0%6%4/65
23°C0%17%11/65
24°C0%14%9/65
≥25°C0%62%40/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.

Shanghai

02:00 local
ZSPD ↗31.14°, 121.81°sunset 17:48
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 24.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–25.0°C
typical 11:00 28.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–29.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
24°C
ZSPD 1800Z
today high so far
25°C
at 01:00
forecast peak
28°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.77°C
24°C
typical further climb+4.1°
expected maximum28°
ZSPD 31.14°, 121.81°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:48
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
17°20°23°26°29°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 27°CNOW 24°C
17°20°23°26°29°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 27°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZSPD, 8 obs
METAR ZSPD 231800Z 11003MPS CAVOK 24/20 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
01:30 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
01:00 25° 20° CAVOK
00:30 24° 20° 090/06 CAVOK
00:00 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
23:30 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
23:00 25° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
22:30 25° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
current state
METAR 24°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (24°C–25°C) ZSPD, tracking climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (20°C→20°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (24°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥29°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥29°C
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 27°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
29°C
14d high, 2026 09 18
avg high28.0°C
p25–p7528.0°C – 29.0°C
days ≥29°C4 / 14
days ≥30°C0 / 14
days ≥31°C0 / 14
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 27°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 02:00typically +4.1° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 28°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0025°+3.9°8%
0125°+3.9°12%
0224°+4.1°12%
0324°+4.1°12%
0424°+4.2°12%
0524°+4.2°12%
0624°+4.2°12%
0725°+3.5°14%
0826°+2.6°15%
0927°+1.8°20%
1027°+1.1°32%
1127°+0.9°52%
1228°+0.5°75%
1328°+0.2°92%
1427°+0.3°98%
1527°+0.2°100%
1626°+0.3°100%
1726°+0.2°100%
1825°+0.2°100%
1925°+0.1°100%
2025°+0.1°100%
2125°+0.2°100%
2225°+0.1°100%
2325°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 6kt
S+4.2°n=35
SE+1.8°n=30
E+1.1°n=57
W-0.3°n=12
NE-0.9°n=109
N-1.2°n=95
NW-2.3°n=32
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 24°C 23°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
01:00 24°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
02:00 24°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
03:00 24°C 22°C 27°C 23°C 25°C
04:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
05:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
06:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
07:00 25°C 23°C 26°C 24°C 26°C
08:00 26°C 23°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
09:00 27°C 23°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
10:00 27°C 24°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
11:00 28°C 24°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
12:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 28°C
13:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
14:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
15:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
16:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
17:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
18:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
19:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
20:00 25°C 24°C 26°C 25°C 26°C
21:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 25°C
22:00 25°C 23°C 27°C 25°C 25°C
23:00 25°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 28°C
09-21 28°C
09-20 28°C
09-19 27°C
09-18 29°C
09-17 28°C
09-16 28°C
09-15 28°C
09-14 29°C
09-13 29°C
09-12 28°C
09-11 27°C
09-10 29°C
09-09 28°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office27.7°29.4°0.77°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES26.7°27.7°0.93°
ECMWF IFS28.7°31.1°0.97°
DWD ICON27.6°29.3°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM28.1°29.5°1.49°
NOAA GFS27.5°29.8°1.57°
JMA GSM26.0°26.4°3.42°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.77°-0.52°75%
CMA GRAPES0.93°-0.65°61%
ECMWF IFS0.97°-0.84°59%
DWD ICON1.17°-1.13°51%
Environment Canada GEM1.49°-1.44°34%
NOAA GFS1.57°-1.51°28%
JMA GSM3.42°-3.38°7%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max29°at 24/06Zmin 23°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z100° 4mps; 8000m; scattered at 3,000ft
TAF ZSPD 231501Z 2318/2424 10004MPS 8000 SCT030 TX29/2406Z TN23/2321Z TN23/2421Z
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤24°C0%8%5/65
25°C0%5%3/65
26°C0%12%8/65
27°C2%9%6/65
28°C27%20%13/65
29°C64%17%11/65
30°C10%11%7/65
31°C0%3%2/65
32°C0%6%4/65
33°C0%5%3/65
≥34°C0%5%3/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

Shanghai

02:00 local
ZSPD ↗31.14°, 121.81°sunset 17:48
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 24.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–25.0°C
typical 11:00 28.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–29.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
24°C
ZSPD 1800Z
today high so far
25°C
at 01:00
forecast low
24°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 0.77°C
24°C
typical further climb+4.1°
expected maximum28°
ZSPD 31.14°, 121.81°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:48
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
17°20°23°26°29°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 24°C
17°20°23°26°29°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZSPD, 8 obs
METAR ZSPD 231800Z 11003MPS CAVOK 24/20 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
01:30 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
01:00 25° 20° CAVOK
00:30 24° 20° 090/06 CAVOK
00:00 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
23:30 24° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
23:00 25° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
22:30 25° 20° 110/06 CAVOK
current state
METAR 24°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (24°C–25°C) ZSPD, tracking climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (20°C→20°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (24°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥29°C possible 14d records show 0/14 days reached ≥29°C
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 24°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
25°C
14d high, 2026 09 19
avg high28.0°C
p25–p7528.0°C – 29.0°C
days ≥29°C0 / 14
days ≥30°C0 / 14
days ≥31°C0 / 14
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00-1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 24°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 02:00typically +4.1° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 28°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0025°+3.9°8%
0125°+3.9°12%
0224°+4.1°12%
0324°+4.1°12%
0424°+4.2°12%
0524°+4.2°12%
0624°+4.2°12%
0725°+3.5°14%
0826°+2.6°15%
0927°+1.8°20%
1027°+1.1°32%
1127°+0.9°52%
1228°+0.5°75%
1328°+0.2°92%
1427°+0.3°98%
1527°+0.2°100%
1626°+0.3°100%
1726°+0.2°100%
1825°+0.2°100%
1925°+0.1°100%
2025°+0.1°100%
2125°+0.2°100%
2225°+0.1°100%
2325°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 6kt
S+4.2°n=35
SE+1.8°n=30
E+1.1°n=57
W-0.3°n=12
NE-0.9°n=109
N-1.2°n=95
NW-2.3°n=32
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 24°C 23°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
01:00 24°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
02:00 24°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
03:00 24°C 22°C 27°C 23°C 25°C
04:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
05:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
06:00 24°C 21°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
07:00 25°C 23°C 26°C 24°C 26°C
08:00 26°C 23°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
09:00 27°C 23°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
10:00 27°C 24°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
11:00 28°C 24°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
12:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 28°C
13:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
14:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
15:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
16:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
17:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
18:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
19:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
20:00 25°C 24°C 26°C 25°C 26°C
21:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 25°C
22:00 25°C 23°C 27°C 25°C 25°C
23:00 25°C 23°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 23°C
09-21 22°C
09-20 23°C
09-19 25°C
09-18 25°C
09-17 23°C
09-16 22°C
09-15 24°C
09-14 24°C
09-13 24°C
09-12 24°C
09-11 23°C
09-10 22°C
09-09 23°C
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office23.5°23.5°0.77°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES22.4°23.2°0.93°
ECMWF IFS25.0°24.8°0.97°
DWD ICON24.1°23.9°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM24.0°24.4°1.49°
NOAA GFS22.4°23.1°1.57°
JMA GSM25.2°25.2°3.42°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office0.77°-0.52°75%
CMA GRAPES0.93°-0.65°61%
ECMWF IFS0.97°-0.84°59%
DWD ICON1.17°-1.13°51%
Environment Canada GEM1.49°-1.44°34%
NOAA GFS1.57°-1.51°28%
JMA GSM3.42°-3.38°7%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max29°at 24/06Zmin 23°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z100° 4mps; 8000m; scattered at 3,000ft
TAF ZSPD 231501Z 2318/2424 10004MPS 8000 SCT030 TX29/2406Z TN23/2321Z TN23/2421Z
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤18°C0%0%0/65
19°C0%0%0/65
20°C0%0%0/65
21°C1%0%0/65
22°C6%2%1/65
23°C28%0%0/65
24°C70%6%4/65
25°C0%5%3/65
26°C0%12%8/65
27°C0%9%6/65
≥28°C0%66%43/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 107% and climatology to 100%.

Shenzhen

02:00 local
ZGSZ ↗22.64°, 113.81°sunset 18:20
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 28.0°C p25–p75 27.0°C–28.0°C
typical 15:00 32.0°C p25–p75 30.0°C–32.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
28°C
ZGSZ 1800Z
today high so far
29°C
at 00:00
forecast peak
32°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.97°C
28°C
typical further climb+4.2°
expected maximum32°
ZGSZ 22.64°, 113.81°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:20
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
19°22°25°28°31°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 28°C
19°22°25°28°31°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 28°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZGSZ, 8 obs
METAR ZGSZ 231800Z 12003MPS 9999 SCT040 28/20 Q1014 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 28° 20° 120/06 SCT040
01:00 28° 21° 110/10 FEW040
00:00 29° 21° 120/10 FEW036
23:00 29° 24° 110/08 FEW036
22:00 29° 24° 110/10 CAVOK
21:00 29° 23° 180/08 CAVOK
20:00 29° 24° 180/10 FEW030
19:00 29° 25° 200/08 CAVOK
current state
METAR 28°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (27°C–28°C) ZGSZ, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~29°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (21°C→20°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (28°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥33°C possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥33°C
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 32°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
34°C
14d high, 2026 09 12
avg high32.0°C
p25–p7530.0°C – 32.0°C
days ≥33°C3 / 14
days ≥34°C1 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~32°C (clim) vs ecmwf 32°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
28° now at 02:00typically +4.2° more (p90 +6.0°)expected peak 32°peak already set on 5% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0028°+3.7°5%
0128°+3.9°5%
0228°+4.2°5%
0328°+4.4°5%
0428°+4.4°5%
0528°+4.5°5%
0628°+4.6°5%
0728°+4.3°5%
0829°+3.4°5%
0930°+2.6°5%
1030°+1.8°14%
1131°+1.3°28%
1231°+1.0°39%
1331°+0.7°61%
1431°+0.4°84%
1532°+0.2°94%
1631°+0.2°98%
1731°+0.1°100%
1830°+0.2°100%
1929°+0.2°100%
2029°+0.0°100%
2129°+0.1°100%
2229°+0.1°100%
2329°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now SE, 6kt
NW+1.2°n=17
W+0.8°n=20
VARIABLE+0.6°n=58
NE+0.2°n=89
SW+0.2°n=51
E+0.0°n=31
S+0.0°n=16
SE-0.8°n=13
N-0.9°n=90
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
01:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
02:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
03:00 28°C 24°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
04:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
05:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
06:00 27°C 23°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
07:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
08:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
09:00 29°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
10:00 30°C 27°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
11:00 30°C 28°C 31°C 30°C 30°C
12:00 31°C 29°C 32°C 30°C 31°C
13:00 31°C 29°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
14:00 31°C 27°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
15:00 31°C 27°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
16:00 31°C 27°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
17:00 30°C 26°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
18:00 30°C 26°C 33°C 29°C 31°C
19:00 30°C 28°C 32°C 29°C 30°C
20:00 29°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
21:00 29°C 27°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
22:00 29°C 27°C 31°C 28°C 29°C
23:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 31°C
09-21 32°C
09-20 32°C
09-19 32°C
09-18 32°C
09-17 30°C
09-16 30°C
09-15 30°C
09-14 30°C
09-13 32°C
09-12 34°C
09-11 33°C
09-10 33°C
09-09 32°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON31.9°32.5°0.97°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS31.8°31.5°0.98°
Environment Canada GEM31.7°32.6°0.98°
UK Met Office31.9°32.4°1.12°
CMA GRAPES31.6°31.9°1.20°
JMA GSM30.4°30.2°1.31°
NOAA GFS33.3°32.9°1.72°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.97°-0.66°59%
ECMWF IFS0.98°-0.62°63%
Environment Canada GEM0.98°-0.15°58%
UK Met Office1.12°+0.52°58%
CMA GRAPES1.20°+0.90°50%
JMA GSM1.31°-1.06°53%
NOAA GFS1.72°+1.24°34%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max32°at 24/06Zmin 27°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z110° 4mps; 8000m; scattered at 4,000ft
becoming24/02Z→24/03Z180° 4mps
TAF ZGSZ 231505Z 2318/2424 11004MPS 8000 SCT040 TX32/2406Z TN27/2322Z TN27/2422Z BECMG 2402/2403 18004MPS
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤27°C0%2%1/65
28°C0%5%3/65
29°C1%3%2/65
30°C4%2%1/65
31°C27%17%11/65
32°C42%31%20/65
33°C30%15%10/65
34°C2%22%14/65
35°C0%3%2/65
36°C0%2%1/65
≥37°C0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 107% and climatology to 100%.

Singapore

02:00 local
WSSS ↗1.35°, 103.99°sunset 18:59
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 28.0°C p25–p75 28.0°C–29.0°C
typical 13:00 33.0°C p25–p75 32.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
29°C
WSSS 1800Z
today high so far
29°C
at 02:00
forecast peak
32°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.56°C
29°C
typical further climb+3.9°
expected maximum33°
WSSS 1.35°, 103.99°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:59
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
21°24°27°30°33°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 29°C
21°24°27°30°33°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 29°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR WSSS, 8 obs
METAR WSSS 231800Z 09005KT 050V120 7000 FEW018 BKN150 29/25 Q1011 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 29° 25° 090/05 BKN150
01:30 28° 25° 060/03 BKN150
01:00 28° 25° 040/04 BKN150
00:30 28° 25° 040/04 BKN150
00:00 28° 25° 030/03 BKN300
23:30 28° 25° 060/04 BKN300
23:00 29° 25° 070/03 BKN300
22:30 29° 25° 110/04 BKN300
current state
METAR 29°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (28°C–29°C) WSSS, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=12) — projects to ~30°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (25°C→25°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (29°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥34°C possible 14d records show 1/14 days reached ≥34°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 30°C, current 29°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
34°C
14d high, 2026 09 16
avg high33.0°C
p25–p7532.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥34°C1 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
days ≥36°C0 / 14
peak hour
13:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 13:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=12
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=12
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=12
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=12
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=12
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~32°C (clim) vs ecmwf 30°C
heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
29° now at 02:00typically +3.9° more (p90 +5.0°)expected peak 33°peak already set on 6% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0028°+3.6°4%
0127°+3.7°4%
0227°+3.9°6%
0327°+4.1°6%
0427°+4.1°6%
0527°+4.2°6%
0627°+4.3°6%
0727°+4.5°6%
0828°+3.4°7%
0928°+2.8°9%
1029°+2.1°13%
1130°+1.5°20%
1230°+1.0°38%
1330°+0.6°65%
1430°+0.5°89%
1530°+0.2°97%
1630°+0.2°100%
1730°+0.1°100%
1829°+0.1°100%
1928°+0.2°100%
2028°+0.4°100%
2128°+0.4°100%
2228°+0.2°100%
2328°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 5kt
E+1.1°n=20
SE+0.8°n=58
NE+0.3°n=12
VARIABLE-0.0°n=36
S-0.1°n=145
N-0.2°n=27
W-0.4°n=20
NW-0.6°n=16
SW-0.8°n=42
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 29°C 24°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
01:00 29°C 26°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
02:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
03:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
04:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
05:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
06:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 28°C
07:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 28°C 28°C
08:00 29°C 27°C 29°C 28°C 29°C
09:00 29°C 28°C 30°C 29°C 29°C
10:00 30°C 28°C 31°C 30°C 30°C
11:00 30°C 29°C 31°C 30°C 31°C
12:00 31°C 29°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
13:00 32°C 30°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
14:00 32°C 27°C 33°C 31°C 33°C
15:00 32°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
16:00 32°C 27°C 34°C 29°C 32°C
17:00 31°C 26°C 32°C 29°C 32°C
18:00 31°C 24°C 31°C 29°C 31°C
19:00 30°C 24°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
20:00 29°C 24°C 30°C 28°C 30°C
21:00 29°C 24°C 30°C 26°C 29°C
22:00 29°C 24°C 30°C 26°C 29°C
23:00 29°C 24°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 31°C
09-21 32°C
09-20 32°C
09-19 33°C
09-18 33°C
09-17 33°C
09-16 34°C
09-15 33°C
09-14 33°C
09-13 33°C
09-12 32°C
09-11 31°C
09-10 32°C
09-09 33°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON32.3°33.1°0.56°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES30.1°32.4°0.67°
UK Met Office31.8°33.3°0.71°
Environment Canada GEM30.5°31.9°0.85°
ECMWF IFS29.9°29.8°0.93°
NOAA GFS30.8°29.1°0.94°
JMA GSM29.1°30.6°2.37°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.56°-0.29°83%
CMA GRAPES0.67°+0.00°78%
UK Met Office0.71°+0.37°75%
Environment Canada GEM0.85°-0.64°67%
ECMWF IFS0.93°-0.90°67%
NOAA GFS0.94°-0.80°55%
JMA GSM2.37°-2.36°4%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→25/00Z
base23/18Z→25/00Z190° 5kt; 10km+; few at 1,500ft; scattered at 2,000ft
temporarily24/02Z→24/05Z3000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 1,200ft (CB); broken at 1,500ft
TAF WSSS 231700Z 2318/2500 19005KT 9999 FEW015 SCT020 TEMPO 2402/2405 3000 TSRA FEW012CB BKN015
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤26°C0%0%0/67
27°C0%1%1/67
28°C0%4%3/67
29°C1%4%3/67
30°C6%15%10/67
31°C20%25%17/67
32°C60%36%24/67
33°C16%13%9/67
34°C2%0%0/67
35°C0%0%0/67
≥36°C0%0%0/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

São Paulo

15:00 local
SBGR ↗-23.44°, -46.47°sunset 18:02
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 20.0°C p25–p75 17.0°C–22.0°C
typical 00:00 21.0°C p25–p75 17.0°C–25.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
16°C
SBGR 1800Z
today high so far
16°C
at 15:00
forecast peak
16°C
ECMWF IFS most accurate here, MAE 0.88°C
16°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
SBGR -23.44°, -46.47°
observed 15:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:02
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
11°14°17°20°23°16:0019:0022:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 16°C
11°14°17°20°23°26°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 16°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR SBGR, 8 obs
METAR SBGR 231800Z 12005KT 9999 OVC023 16/13 Q1019
local temp dew wind cloud wx
15:00 16° 13° 120/05 OVC023
14:00 16° 13° 120/06 BKN021
13:00 15° 14° 090/06 BKN011 -RA
12:00 14° 13° 140/05 OVC010 -RA
11:00 14° 13° 160/05 OVC013 RA
10:15 14° 13° 110/06 OVC010 RA BR
10:00 13° 13° 190/06 OVC010 RA BR
09:30 14° 13° 200/05 OVC009 -RA BR
current state
METAR 16°C at 15:00 local, -4.0°C vs 14d-median (20°C this hour) SBGR, running behind climatology
Peak hour 00:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 16°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.3°C/h, dewpoint falling (13°C→13°C) drying — accelerates warming
Today vs ECMWF: running -4.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 17°C, current 16°C @ 15:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
31°C
14d high, 2026 09 21
avg high21.0°C
p25–p7517.0°C – 25.0°C
days ≥22°C7 / 14
days ≥23°C5 / 14
days ≥24°C4 / 14
peak hour
00:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 00:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=13
today @ 12:0014°C
implied peakvs ecmwf 17°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
16° now at 15:00peak already set on 97% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0017°+8.9°6%
0117°+9.3°6%
0216°+9.7°5%
0316°+9.9°5%
0416°+10.0°5%
0516°+10.1°5%
0616°+10.1°5%
0717°+9.5°5%
0818°+8.3°6%
0919°+6.6°6%
1021°+5.0°8%
1123°+3.3°14%
1224°+2.1°25%
1325°+1.0°45%
1426°+0.4°78%
1525°+0.1°97%
1624°+0.0°100%
1723°+0.0°100%
1821°+0.0°100%
1920°+0.0°100%
2019°+0.2°100%
2118°+0.2°100%
2218°+0.1°100%
2317°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now SE, 5kt
NW+4.3°n=56
N+3.9°n=24
VARIABLE+3.0°n=43
W+2.6°n=20
NE+2.0°n=29
E-0.7°n=88
S-4.0°n=31
SE-4.4°n=85
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 14°C 25°C 15°C 18°C
01:00 17°C 13°C 24°C 15°C 18°C
02:00 17°C 13°C 22°C 14°C 18°C
03:00 17°C 13°C 20°C 15°C 18°C
04:00 17°C 13°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
05:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
06:00 17°C 13°C 18°C 14°C 18°C
07:00 17°C 14°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
08:00 17°C 14°C 22°C 15°C 18°C
09:00 18°C 14°C 24°C 15°C 19°C
10:00 18°C 14°C 26°C 16°C 20°C
11:00 19°C 14°C 28°C 17°C 20°C
12:00 19°C 14°C 29°C 17°C 21°C
13:00 20°C 15°C 31°C 16°C 21°C
14:00 20°C 15°C 31°C 17°C 23°C
15:00 20°C 15°C 31°C 17°C 22°C
16:00 20°C 15°C 30°C 17°C 22°C
17:00 20°C 15°C 29°C 16°C 22°C
18:00 19°C 14°C 28°C 15°C 20°C
19:00 18°C 14°C 27°C 15°C 20°C
20:00 17°C 14°C 26°C 15°C 19°C
21:00 17°C 14°C 26°C 15°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 14°C 26°C 15°C 18°C
23:00 16°C 14°C 25°C 15°C 19°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 25°C
09-21 31°C
09-20 21°C
09-19 27°C
09-18 23°C
09-17 17°C
09-16 19°C
09-15 20°C
09-14 16°C
09-13 16°C
09-12 20°C
09-11 28°C
09-10 22°C
09-09 22°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
ECMWF IFS16.4°19.0°0.88°most accurate here
DWD ICON16.8°19.0°1.09°
NOAA GFS15.0°20.2°1.14°
Environment Canada GEM16.1°19.6°1.34°
CMA GRAPES15.9°18.9°1.52°
UK Met Office16.3°20.5°1.55°
JMA GSM15.0°18.5°1.99°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
ECMWF IFS0.88°-0.18°70%
DWD ICON1.09°-0.25°59%
NOAA GFS1.14°+0.20°59%
Environment Canada GEM1.34°+0.40°55%
CMA GRAPES1.52°-0.33°42%
UK Met Office1.55°-1.09°33%
JMA GSM1.99°-1.55°24%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
forecast max19°at 24/17Zmin 13°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/24Z130° 7kt; 9000m; rain; broken at 1,300ft
becoming23/20Z→23/22Z10km+; overcast at 900ft
becoming24/07Z→24/09Z5000m; drizzle; mist
becoming24/10Z→24/12Z10km+; broken at 1,600ft
becoming24/14Z→24/16Zbroken at 3,000ft
becoming24/20Z→24/22Z8000m; broken at 1,000ft
TAF SBGR 231630Z 2318/2424 13007KT 9000 RA BKN013 TN13/2406Z TX19/2417Z BECMG 2320/2322 9999 NSW OVC009 BECMG 2407/2409 5000 DZ BR BECMG 2410/2412 9999 NSW BKN016 BECMG 2414/2416 BKN030 BECMG 2420/2422 8000 BKN010 RMK PGG
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤13°C0%0%0/66
14°C0%0%0/66
15°C0%0%0/66
16°C92%3%2/66
17°C7%6%4/66
18°C0%6%4/66
19°C0%8%5/66
20°C0%2%1/66
21°C0%6%4/66
22°C0%6%4/66
≥23°C0%64%42/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.

Taipei

02:00 local
RCSS ↗25.07°, 121.55°sunset 17:49
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 26.0°C p25–p75 24.0°C–26.0°C
typical 11:00 32.0°C p25–p75 31.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
25°C
RCSS 1800Z
today high so far
26°C
at 22:30
forecast peak
33°C
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 1.08°C
25°C
typical further climb+6.7°
expected maximum32°
RCSS 25.07°, 121.55°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:49
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
19°22°25°28°31°34°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 25°C
19°22°25°28°31°34°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 25°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RCSS, 8 obs
METAR RCSS 231800Z 09007KT CAVOK 25/21 Q1014 NOSIG RMK A2996
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 25° 21° 090/07 CAVOK
01:00 25° 21° 100/08 CAVOK
00:00 25° 21° 090/08 CAVOK
23:30 25° 21° 090/08 CAVOK
23:00 25° 21° 090/07 CAVOK
22:30 26° 21° 090/08 CAVOK
22:00 26° 21° 100/09 CAVOK
21:30 26° 21° 090/10 FEW030
current state
METAR 25°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (24°C–26°C) RCSS, tracking climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (21°C→21°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (25°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥33°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥33°C
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 31°C, current 25°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
34°C
14d high, 2026 09 19
avg high32.0°C
p25–p7531.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥33°C5 / 14
days ≥34°C2 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00-1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00-3.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 31°C
heating passport climb to peak 53 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
25° now at 02:00typically +6.7° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 32°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0026°+6.4°0%
0126°+6.6°0%
0226°+6.7°0%
0326°+6.8°0%
0426°+7.1°2%
0526°+6.5°5%
0626°+7.1°2%
0727°+5.4°6%
0829°+3.6°4%
0930°+2.4°9%
1031°+1.4°21%
1132°+1.1°38%
1232°+0.6°70%
1332°+0.3°91%
1432°+0.3°96%
1531°+0.1°100%
1630°+0.1°100%
1729°+0.2°100%
1828°+0.2°100%
1927°+0.2°100%
2027°+0.2°100%
2127°+0.1°100%
2227°+0.2°100%
2327°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 7kt
VARIABLE+3.6°n=18
W+2.0°n=20
NW+0.1°n=18
E-0.2°n=240
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 26°C 23°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
01:00 26°C 22°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
02:00 26°C 22°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
03:00 26°C 22°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
04:00 25°C 22°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
05:00 25°C 22°C 26°C 24°C 26°C
06:00 25°C 22°C 26°C 24°C 26°C
07:00 26°C 25°C 29°C 25°C 27°C
08:00 27°C 25°C 31°C 27°C 28°C
09:00 29°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
10:00 31°C 27°C 33°C 29°C 31°C
11:00 31°C 28°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
12:00 32°C 27°C 34°C 30°C 33°C
13:00 32°C 28°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
14:00 32°C 27°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
15:00 31°C 28°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
16:00 30°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
17:00 28°C 27°C 31°C 27°C 29°C
18:00 27°C 25°C 30°C 27°C 27°C
19:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
20:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 25°C 26°C
21:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 25°C 27°C
22:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 25°C 27°C
23:00 26°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 27°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 33°C
09-21 32°C
09-20 33°C
09-19 34°C
09-18 32°C
09-17 32°C
09-16 30°C
09-15 29°C
09-14 33°C
09-13 34°C
09-12 32°C
09-11 29°C
09-10 31°C
09-09 31°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS32.7°33.8°1.08°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS32.7°33.5°1.37°
DWD ICON32.4°34.3°1.39°
UK Met Office30.3°31.7°1.53°
CMA GRAPES28.6°31.2°2.28°
Environment Canada GEM32.9°34.1°2.40°
JMA GSM29.0°30.1°3.70°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS1.08°-0.61°61%
ECMWF IFS1.37°-1.24°42%
DWD ICON1.39°-1.26°37%
UK Met Office1.53°-1.39°34%
CMA GRAPES2.28°-2.08°16%
Environment Canada GEM2.40°-2.39°12%
JMA GSM3.70°-3.64°4%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z090° 8kt; 10km+; few at 1,500ft
temporarily24/03Z→24/09Z080° 13kt
TAF RCSS 231700Z 2318/2418 09008KT 9999 FEW015 TEMPO 2403/2409 08013KT
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤27°C0%5%3/65
28°C0%2%1/65
29°C0%6%4/65
30°C1%6%4/65
31°C5%6%4/65
32°C28%14%9/65
33°C48%20%13/65
34°C18%15%10/65
35°C4%18%12/65
36°C0%6%4/65
≥37°C0%2%1/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Tel Aviv

21:20 local
LLBG ↗32.01°, 34.89°sunset 18:37
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 28.0°C p25–p75 27.0°C–28.0°C
typical 11:00 32.0°C p25–p75 30.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
27°C
LLBG 1820Z
today high so far
28°C
at 18:20
forecast peak
31°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.39°C
27°C
left to climb+0.0°
peakalready set
LLBG 32.01°, 34.89°
observed 21:20 local
usually warmestsunset 18:37
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°20°24°28°32°22:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 27°C
16°20°24°28°32°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 27°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR LLBG, 8 obs
METAR LLBG 231820Z 35004KT 9999 FEW035 27/18 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:20 27° 18° 350/04 FEW035
20:50 27° 18° 340/04 FEW035
20:20 27° 18° 340/06 FEW035
19:50 27° 18° 340/06 FEW035
19:20 27° 18° 320/07 FEW035
18:50 27° 19° 320/08 FEW035
18:20 28° 19° 320/09 FEW037
17:50 28° 19° 310/09 FEW037
current state
METAR 27°C at 21:20 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (27°C–28°C) LLBG, tracking climatology
Peak hour 11:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 30°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (18°C→18°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 31°C, current 27°C @ 21:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
14d high,
avg high32.0°C
p25–p7530.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥33°C0 / 0
days ≥34°C0 / 0
days ≥35°C0 / 0
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00-1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C med, n=13
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 31°C
heating passport climb to peak 64 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
27° now at 21:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0025°+5.6°0%
0125°+6.1°0%
0224°+6.6°0%
0324°+7.0°0%
0424°+7.3°0%
0523°+7.5°0%
0623°+7.6°0%
0725°+6.4°0%
0827°+4.2°0%
0928°+2.9°2%
1030°+1.4°20%
1130°+0.5°57%
1231°+0.2°85%
1331°+0.2°95%
1431°+0.1°98%
1530°+0.0°100%
1630°+0.0°100%
1729°+0.0°100%
1828°+0.0°100%
1927°+0.0°100%
2027°+0.0°100%
2127°+0.0°100%
2226°+0.0°100%
2326°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 4kt
E+2.2°n=13
NW+0.0°n=177
N-0.4°n=13
W-0.4°n=130
SW-1.5°n=17
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 27°C 25°C 30°C 26°C 27°C
01:00 26°C 25°C 30°C 26°C 27°C
02:00 26°C 24°C 30°C 25°C 26°C
03:00 25°C 24°C 30°C 25°C 26°C
04:00 25°C 24°C 30°C 24°C 26°C
05:00 24°C 23°C 30°C 24°C 25°C
06:00 25°C 23°C 30°C 24°C 25°C
07:00 25°C 24°C 30°C 24°C 25°C
08:00 26°C 25°C 30°C 25°C 27°C
09:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
10:00 29°C 28°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
11:00 30°C 29°C 32°C 30°C 31°C
12:00 31°C 29°C 33°C 30°C 33°C
13:00 31°C 29°C 34°C 30°C 33°C
14:00 32°C 29°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
15:00 31°C 30°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
16:00 31°C 29°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
17:00 30°C 29°C 33°C 29°C 31°C
18:00 30°C 28°C 33°C 28°C 30°C
19:00 29°C 27°C 33°C 28°C 29°C
20:00 28°C 27°C 31°C 27°C 29°C
21:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
22:00 27°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
23:00 27°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 27°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
no recent actuals
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON30.8°30.6°0.39°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM30.2°30.3°0.46°
NOAA GFS30.0°29.8°0.57°
JMA GSM30.7°30.5°0.71°
UK Met Office30.9°31.4°0.87°
CMA GRAPES27.8°28.2°2.18°
ECMWF IFS31.2°31.5°2.22°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.39°+0.14°97%
Environment Canada GEM0.46°+0.26°91%
NOAA GFS0.57°+0.40°88%
JMA GSM0.71°+0.53°76%
UK Met Office0.87°+0.86°62%
CMA GRAPES2.18°-2.18°7%
ECMWF IFS2.22°+2.22°4%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max30°at 24/11Zmin 22°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z330° 6kt; 10km+; scattered at 3,000ft
becoming23/19Z→23/21Zvariable 3kt
temporarily40%23/21Z→24/05Zbroken at 2,500ft
becoming24/07Z→24/09Z310° 10kt; few at 3,500ft
becoming24/15Z→24/17Zvariable 3kt; scattered at 3,000ft
TAF LLBG 231703Z 2318/2418 33006KT 9999 SCT030 TX30/2411Z TN22/2403Z BECMG 2319/2321 VRB03KT PROB40 TEMPO 2321/2405 BKN025 BECMG 2407/2409 31010KT FEW035 BECMG 2415/2417 VRB03KT SCT030
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤26°C0%0%0/65
27°C0%0%0/65
28°C0%2%1/65
29°C0%3%2/65
30°C100%38%25/65
31°C0%29%19/65
32°C0%17%11/65
33°C0%6%4/65
34°C0%5%3/65
35°C0%0%0/65
≥36°C0%0%0/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Tokyo

03:00 local
RJTT ↗35.76°, 140.39°sunset 17:34
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 22.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–24.0°C
typical 00:00 24.0°C p25–p75 23.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
21°C
RJTT 1800Z
today high so far
21°C
at 03:00
forecast peak
27°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 1.13°C
21°C
typical further climb+3.8°
expected maximum25°
RJTT 35.76°, 140.39°
observed 03:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:34
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°18°20°22°24°26°28°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 28°CNOW 21°C
16°18°20°22°24°26°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 28°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RJTT, 8 obs
METAR RJTT 231800Z 36005KT 9999 FEW006 BKN012 21/20 Q1015 TEMPO FEW005 BKN008
local temp dew wind cloud wx
03:00 21° 20° 360/05 BKN012
02:30 20° 19° 340/06 BKN012
02:00 20° 20° 340/11 BKN006
01:30 20° 19° 330/07 BKN006 -RA
01:00 20° 20° 340/09 BKN006 -RA
00:30 20° 20° 340/08 BKN006
00:00 20° 20° 360/09 BKN006 -RA BR SHRA BR
23:30 20° 20° 010/08 BKN005 -RA SHRA BR
current state
METAR 21°C at 03:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (20°C–24°C) RJTT, tracking climatology
Peak hour 00:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 21°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint rising (19°C→20°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 28°C, current 21°C @ 03:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
31°C
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high24.0°C
p25–p7523.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥25°C7 / 14
days ≥26°C4 / 14
days ≥27°C4 / 14
peak hour
00:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 00:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 03:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 28°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 03:00typically +3.8° more (p90 +6.0°)expected peak 25°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0024°+3.4°3%
0124°+3.6°3%
0224°+3.7°3%
0324°+3.8°3%
0424°+3.9°3%
0524°+4.0°3%
0624°+3.9°3%
0724°+3.5°5%
0825°+2.8°6%
0925°+2.2°9%
1026°+1.5°25%
1126°+1.0°40%
1227°+0.6°55%
1327°+0.3°85%
1427°+0.2°97%
1527°+0.1°100%
1626°+0.0°100%
1726°+0.1°100%
1825°+0.1°100%
1925°+0.2°100%
2025°+0.0°100%
2124°+0.1°100%
2224°+0.1°100%
2324°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 5kt
SW+3.6°n=13
S+2.8°n=70
SE+1.8°n=19
VARIABLE+0.7°n=16
E+0.5°n=38
NE-1.0°n=118
N-1.7°n=102
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 22°C 19°C 27°C 20°C 24°C
01:00 22°C 19°C 27°C 20°C 24°C
02:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 21°C 24°C
03:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 20°C 24°C
04:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
05:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
06:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
07:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
08:00 22°C 19°C 29°C 21°C 23°C
09:00 22°C 19°C 29°C 21°C 23°C
10:00 22°C 19°C 30°C 22°C 23°C
11:00 23°C 20°C 31°C 22°C 23°C
12:00 23°C 20°C 30°C 22°C 24°C
13:00 23°C 20°C 30°C 22°C 24°C
14:00 23°C 20°C 30°C 22°C 24°C
15:00 24°C 20°C 29°C 22°C 25°C
16:00 23°C 20°C 29°C 22°C 25°C
17:00 23°C 20°C 28°C 22°C 24°C
18:00 23°C 20°C 28°C 21°C 24°C
19:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 25°C
20:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 25°C
21:00 22°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
22:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
23:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 30°C
09-21 25°C
09-20 23°C
09-19 23°C
09-18 25°C
09-17 24°C
09-16 23°C
09-15 28°C
09-14 30°C
09-13 25°C
09-12 23°C
09-11 21°C
09-10 22°C
09-09 31°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office27.3°24.3°1.13°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES28.7°25.3°1.30°
Environment Canada GEM27.1°24.1°1.36°
DWD ICON27.6°25.5°1.46°
NOAA GFS28.6°26.0°1.48°
ECMWF IFS27.6°24.9°1.77°
JMA GSM26.8°23.6°2.83°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office1.13°-0.05°63%
CMA GRAPES1.30°-0.04°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.36°-0.25°54%
DWD ICON1.46°-0.90°45%
NOAA GFS1.48°+0.22°45%
ECMWF IFS1.77°-1.45°39%
JMA GSM2.83°-2.55°13%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→25/00Z
base23/18Z→25/00Z350° 10kt; 10km+; few at 500ft; broken at 1,200ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/22Zfew at 300ft; broken at 800ft
becoming23/23Z→24/01Z160° 6kt
becoming24/12Z→24/15Z050° 10kt
TAF RJTT 231705Z 2318/2500 35010KT 9999 FEW005 BKN012 TEMPO 2318/2322 FEW003 BKN008 BECMG 2323/2401 16006KT BECMG 2412/2415 05010KT
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤23°C0%9%6/65
24°C1%8%5/65
25°C4%14%9/65
26°C16%11%7/65
27°C36%14%9/65
28°C32%11%7/65
29°C12%6%4/65
30°C2%5%3/65
31°C0%8%5/65
32°C0%9%6/65
≥33°C0%6%4/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Tokyo

03:00 local
RJTT ↗35.76°, 140.39°sunset 17:34
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 22.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–24.0°C
typical 00:00 24.0°C p25–p75 23.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
21°C
RJTT 1800Z
today high so far
21°C
at 03:00
forecast low
21°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 1.13°C
21°C
typical further climb+3.8°
expected maximum25°
RJTT 35.76°, 140.39°
observed 03:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:34
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°18°20°22°24°26°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 21°C
16°18°20°22°24°26°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 21°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR RJTT, 8 obs
METAR RJTT 231800Z 36005KT 9999 FEW006 BKN012 21/20 Q1015 TEMPO FEW005 BKN008
local temp dew wind cloud wx
03:00 21° 20° 360/05 BKN012
02:30 20° 19° 340/06 BKN012
02:00 20° 20° 340/11 BKN006
01:30 20° 19° 330/07 BKN006 -RA
01:00 20° 20° 340/09 BKN006 -RA
00:30 20° 20° 340/08 BKN006
00:00 20° 20° 360/09 BKN006 -RA BR SHRA BR
23:30 20° 20° 010/08 BKN005 -RA SHRA BR
current state
METAR 21°C at 03:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (20°C–24°C) RJTT, tracking climatology
Peak hour 00:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 21°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint rising (19°C→20°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 20°C, current 21°C @ 03:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
24°C
14d high, 2026 09 15
avg high24.0°C
p25–p7523.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥25°C0 / 14
days ≥26°C0 / 14
days ≥27°C0 / 14
peak hour
00:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 00:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 03:00)
implied peakvs ecmwf 20°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
21° now at 03:00typically +3.8° more (p90 +6.0°)expected peak 25°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0024°+3.4°3%
0124°+3.6°3%
0224°+3.7°3%
0324°+3.8°3%
0424°+3.9°3%
0524°+4.0°3%
0624°+3.9°3%
0724°+3.5°5%
0825°+2.8°6%
0925°+2.2°9%
1026°+1.5°25%
1126°+1.0°40%
1227°+0.6°55%
1327°+0.3°85%
1427°+0.2°97%
1527°+0.1°100%
1626°+0.0°100%
1726°+0.1°100%
1825°+0.1°100%
1925°+0.2°100%
2025°+0.0°100%
2124°+0.1°100%
2224°+0.1°100%
2324°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 5kt
SW+3.6°n=13
S+2.8°n=70
SE+1.8°n=19
VARIABLE+0.7°n=16
E+0.5°n=38
NE-1.0°n=118
N-1.7°n=102
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 22°C 19°C 27°C 20°C 24°C
01:00 22°C 19°C 27°C 20°C 24°C
02:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 21°C 24°C
03:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 20°C 24°C
04:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
05:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
06:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
07:00 22°C 19°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
08:00 22°C 19°C 29°C 21°C 23°C
09:00 22°C 19°C 29°C 21°C 23°C
10:00 22°C 19°C 30°C 22°C 23°C
11:00 23°C 20°C 31°C 22°C 24°C
12:00 23°C 20°C 30°C 22°C 24°C
13:00 23°C 20°C 30°C 22°C 24°C
14:00 23°C 20°C 30°C 22°C 24°C
15:00 24°C 20°C 29°C 22°C 25°C
16:00 23°C 20°C 29°C 22°C 25°C
17:00 23°C 20°C 28°C 22°C 24°C
18:00 23°C 20°C 28°C 21°C 24°C
19:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 25°C
20:00 22°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 25°C
21:00 22°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
22:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
23:00 23°C 20°C 27°C 21°C 24°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 23°C
09-21 22°C
09-20 22°C
09-19 21°C
09-18 22°C
09-17 20°C
09-16 21°C
09-15 24°C
09-14 24°C
09-13 20°C
09-12 21°C
09-11 19°C
09-10 19°C
09-09 21°C
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office21.0°19.5°1.13°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES20.3°18.6°1.30°
Environment Canada GEM20.2°18.0°1.36°
DWD ICON19.7°20.1°1.46°
NOAA GFS20.0°20.8°1.48°
ECMWF IFS20.7°18.8°1.77°
JMA GSM20.7°20.0°2.83°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office1.13°-0.05°63%
CMA GRAPES1.30°-0.04°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.36°-0.25°54%
DWD ICON1.46°-0.90°45%
NOAA GFS1.48°+0.22°45%
ECMWF IFS1.77°-1.45°39%
JMA GSM2.83°-2.55°13%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→25/00Z
base23/18Z→25/00Z350° 10kt; 10km+; few at 500ft; broken at 1,200ft
temporarily23/18Z→23/22Zfew at 300ft; broken at 800ft
becoming23/23Z→24/01Z160° 6kt
becoming24/12Z→24/15Z050° 10kt
TAF RJTT 231705Z 2318/2500 35010KT 9999 FEW005 BKN012 TEMPO 2318/2322 FEW003 BKN008 BECMG 2323/2401 16006KT BECMG 2412/2415 05010KT
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤16°C0%0%0/65
17°C1%0%0/65
18°C1%0%0/65
19°C10%0%0/65
20°C90%0%0/65
21°C0%0%0/65
22°C0%0%0/65
23°C0%9%6/65
24°C0%8%5/65
25°C0%14%9/65
≥26°C0%69%45/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.

Toronto

14:00 local
CYYZ ↗43.68°, -79.62°sunset 19:15
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 22.0°C p25–p75 19.0°C–24.0°C
typical 15:00 23.0°C p25–p75 18.0°C–25.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
18°C
CYYZ 1800Z
today high so far
18°C
at 14:00
forecast peak
18°C
NOAA GFS most accurate here, MAE 0.63°C
18°C
left to climb+0.6°
peakalready set
CYYZ 43.68°, -79.62°
observed 14:00 local
usually warmestsunset 19:15
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
12°16°20°24°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 18°C
12°17°22°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 18°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR CYYZ, 8 obs
METAR CYYZ 231800Z 09013G21KT 15SM SCT033 SCT260 18/08 A3051 RMK CU3CI1 SLP337
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:00 18° 090/13 SCT033
13:00 18° 10° 110/12 BKN030
12:00 16° 080/11 BKN030
11:00 16° 10° 080/12 BKN260
10:00 16° 11° 080/11 SCT017
09:00 13° 10° 070/07 FEW025
08:00 11° 050/08 FEW020
07:00 10° 060/08 FEW020
current state
METAR 18°C at 14:00 local, -4.0°C vs 14d-median (22°C this hour) CYYZ, running behind climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=13) — projects to ~19°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°C/h, dewpoint rising (10°C→8°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (18°C @ 14:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥24°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥24°C
Today vs ECMWF: running -4.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 18°C, current 18°C @ 14:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
28°C
14d high, 2026 09 13
avg high23.0°C
p25–p7518.0°C – 25.0°C
days ≥24°C6 / 14
days ≥25°C4 / 14
days ≥26°C1 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=13
today @ 12:0016°C
implied peak17°C vs ecmwf 18°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
18° now at 14:00peak already set on 58% of days by nowtypically only +0.6° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0017°+5.6°3%
0116°+6.1°2%
0216°+6.5°2%
0315°+6.9°2%
0415°+7.2°2%
0515°+7.4°2%
0615°+7.8°2%
0715°+7.7°2%
0815°+7.2°2%
0917°+5.6°2%
1018°+4.0°3%
1120°+2.6°3%
1221°+1.6°12%
1321°+0.9°37%
1422°+0.6°58%
1522°+0.2°91%
1622°+0.1°98%
1721°+0.0°100%
1820°+0.0°100%
1919°+0.0°100%
2019°+0.1°100%
2118°+0.0°100%
2218°+0.0°100%
2317°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now E, 13kt
S+3.0°n=36
SE+1.6°n=57
SW+1.5°n=52
W+0.1°n=58
E-0.9°n=46
NW-1.3°n=65
VARIABLE-1.6°n=12
N-2.4°n=34
NE-2.8°n=14
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 11°C 21°C 14°C 17°C
01:00 16°C 10°C 21°C 14°C 17°C
02:00 15°C 10°C 21°C 14°C 17°C
03:00 14°C 10°C 22°C 13°C 17°C
04:00 15°C 10°C 21°C 12°C 17°C
05:00 15°C 10°C 21°C 12°C 16°C
06:00 13°C 8°C 21°C 12°C 16°C
07:00 14°C 8°C 20°C 12°C 17°C
08:00 15°C 9°C 20°C 11°C 17°C
09:00 16°C 10°C 23°C 12°C 17°C
10:00 17°C 11°C 22°C 15°C 18°C
11:00 19°C 12°C 23°C 16°C 22°C
12:00 20°C 12°C 25°C 16°C 23°C
13:00 21°C 14°C 26°C 18°C 24°C
14:00 22°C 15°C 26°C 19°C 24°C
15:00 23°C 15°C 28°C 19°C 24°C
16:00 22°C 15°C 26°C 19°C 24°C
17:00 22°C 15°C 25°C 19°C 24°C
18:00 21°C 15°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
19:00 20°C 14°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
20:00 20°C 13°C 23°C 17°C 20°C
21:00 19°C 13°C 23°C 17°C 20°C
22:00 18°C 13°C 23°C 15°C 19°C
23:00 17°C 13°C 22°C 14°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 17°C
09-21 15°C
09-20 21°C
09-19 18°C
09-18 21°C
09-17 24°C
09-16 25°C
09-15 23°C
09-14 19°C
09-13 28°C
09-12 25°C
09-11 23°C
09-10 25°C
09-09 24°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
NOAA GFS17.7°18.5°0.63°most accurate here
DWD ICON18.2°18.3°0.83°
ECMWF IFS18.0°18.7°0.94°
CMA GRAPES18.3°19.0°1.02°
UK Met Office18.5°18.7°1.03°
Environment Canada GEM19.3°19.6°1.37°
JMA GSM16.1°16.2°3.03°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
NOAA GFS0.63°+0.26°84%
DWD ICON0.83°-0.16°76%
ECMWF IFS0.94°-0.08°66%
CMA GRAPES1.02°+0.60°67%
UK Met Office1.03°+0.67°67%
Environment Canada GEM1.37°+1.07°46%
JMA GSM3.03°-2.94°17%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z110° 10kt gusting 20; >6 statute miles; broken at 3,000ft
from23/21Z onwards080° 10kt gusting 20; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft
from24/00Z onwards080° 8kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
becoming24/14Z→24/16Z090° 10kt gusting 20
becoming24/22Z→24/24Zvariable 3kt
TAF CYYZ 231740Z 2318/2424 11010G20KT P6SM BKN030 FM232100 08010G20KT P6SM SCT030 FM240000 08008KT P6SM SKC BECMG 2414/2416 09010G20KT BECMG 2422/2424 VRB03KT RMK NXT FCST BY 232100Z
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤12°C0%0%0/66
13°C0%2%1/66
14°C0%0%0/66
15°C0%2%1/66
16°C0%5%3/66
17°C0%3%2/66
18°C70%8%5/66
19°C23%3%2/66
20°C5%5%3/66
21°C0%12%8/66
≥22°C0%62%41/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.

Warsaw

20:00 local
EPWA ↗52.17°, 20.97°sunset 18:33
view on polymarket
2026-09-23
this hour median 16.0°C p25–p75 14.0°C–17.0°C
typical 15:00 20.0°C p25–p75 17.0°C–21.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
11°C
EPWA 1800Z
today high so far
15°C
at 17:00
forecast peak
16°C
DWD ICON most accurate here, MAE 0.62°C
11°C
left to climb+0.1°
peakalready set
EPWA 52.17°, 20.97°
observed 20:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:33
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
12°15°18°21°21:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 11°C
12°15°18°21°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 11°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR EPWA, 8 obs
METAR EPWA 231800Z 28005KT CAVOK 11/08 Q1020 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
20:00 11° 280/05 CAVOK
19:30 12° 310/06 CAVOK
19:00 13° 300/07 CAVOK
18:30 14° 310/09 CAVOK
18:00 14° 310/11 CAVOK
17:30 14° 310/10 CAVOK
17:00 15° 320/11 FEW046
16:30 15° 310/10 FEW043
current state
METAR 11°C at 20:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (16°C this hour) EPWA, running behind climatology
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 15°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -2.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (7°C→8°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 16°C, current 11°C @ 20:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
30°C
14d high, 2026 09 09
avg high20.0°C
p25–p7517.0°C – 21.0°C
days ≥21°C5 / 14
days ≥22°C4 / 14
days ≥23°C2 / 14
peak hour
15:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 15:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 16°C
heating passport climb to peak 66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0013°+6.6°5%
0113°+7.1°5%
0212°+7.5°5%
0312°+7.9°5%
0412°+8.3°5%
0511°+8.6°5%
0611°+8.8°5%
0711°+8.8°3%
0812°+7.6°3%
0914°+6.1°3%
1016°+4.5°6%
1117°+2.9°6%
1218°+1.9°12%
1319°+1.1°31%
1419°+0.5°62%
1520°+0.2°88%
1620°+0.1°97%
1719°+0.0°98%
1818°+0.0°98%
1917°+0.0°98%
2016°+0.1°100%
2115°+0.2°100%
2214°+0.1°100%
2314°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now W, 5kt
S+2.7°n=53
SW+1.0°n=45
SE+0.8°n=77
E+0.1°n=32
W-1.3°n=104
NE-2.4°n=24
NW-2.5°n=23
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 13°C 9°C 20°C 11°C 16°C
01:00 12°C 8°C 19°C 10°C 16°C
02:00 12°C 8°C 18°C 10°C 14°C
03:00 11°C 8°C 16°C 10°C 13°C
04:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 9°C 14°C
05:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 9°C 14°C
06:00 11°C 7°C 14°C 9°C 14°C
07:00 11°C 7°C 14°C 9°C 13°C
08:00 13°C 11°C 16°C 11°C 14°C
09:00 13°C 11°C 17°C 13°C 15°C
10:00 15°C 12°C 18°C 14°C 16°C
11:00 17°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 19°C
12:00 18°C 13°C 22°C 15°C 20°C
13:00 18°C 13°C 23°C 16°C 21°C
14:00 18°C 13°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
15:00 18°C 14°C 24°C 16°C 21°C
16:00 19°C 13°C 24°C 17°C 21°C
17:00 18°C 12°C 23°C 16°C 20°C
18:00 18°C 11°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
19:00 16°C 12°C 25°C 15°C 18°C
20:00 16°C 12°C 24°C 14°C 17°C
21:00 15°C 11°C 23°C 12°C 16°C
22:00 15°C 10°C 22°C 12°C 16°C
23:00 14°C 10°C 21°C 11°C 16°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 17°C
09-21 14°C
09-20 22°C
09-19 22°C
09-18 21°C
09-17 18°C
09-16 24°C
09-15 20°C
09-14 19°C
09-13 20°C
09-12 19°C
09-11 16°C
09-10 20°C
09-09 30°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
DWD ICON16.2°14.3°0.62°most accurate here
UK Met Office15.7°16.1°0.69°
ECMWF IFS15.4°13.7°0.81°
NOAA GFS17.7°12.5°1.10°
CMA GRAPES15.7°15.1°1.10°
Environment Canada GEM16.3°15.8°1.33°
JMA GSM15.3°14.9°1.56°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
DWD ICON0.62°+0.01°86%
UK Met Office0.69°+0.26°82%
ECMWF IFS0.81°-0.56°72%
NOAA GFS1.10°+0.88°50%
CMA GRAPES1.10°-0.80°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.33°+1.22°43%
JMA GSM1.56°-1.43°37%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
base23/18Z→24/18Z290° 4kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
possibly40%24/00Z→24/03Z4000m; mist; broken at 400ft
possibly30%24/00Z→24/07Z300m; fog; overcast at 100ft
becoming24/07Z→24/10Z270° 14kt
TAF EPWA 231730Z 2318/2418 29004KT CAVOK PROB40 2400/2403 4000 BR BKN004 PROB30 2400/2407 0300 FG OVC001 BECMG 2407/2410 27014KT
market vs climatology today 66 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤10°C0%2%1/66
11°C0%3%2/66
12°C0%2%1/66
13°C0%5%3/66
14°C0%5%3/66
15°C100%8%5/66
16°C0%8%5/66
17°C0%6%4/66
18°C0%5%3/66
19°C0%6%4/66
≥20°C0%53%35/66
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.

Wellington

local
NZWN ↗-41.33°, 174.81°sunset 18:19
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 10.0°C p25–p75 9.0°C–12.0°C
typical 11:00 15.0°C p25–p75 14.0°C–15.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
live obs
NZWN
forecast peak
14°C
CMA GRAPES most accurate here, MAE 0.76°C
typical further climb+3.8°
NZWN -41.33°, 174.81°
observed — local
usually warmestsunset 18:19
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°12°14°16°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 12°C
10°12°14°16°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 12°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR NZWN, 0 obs
local temp dew wind cloud wx
current state
?
No live METAR — climatology shown without observation context NZWN
~
Climb (last ~90min): —°C/h, dewpoint stable stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
16°C
14d high, 2026 09 14
avg high15.0°C
p25–p7514.0°C – 15.0°C
days ≥16°C1 / 14
days ≥17°C0 / 14
days ≥18°C0 / 14
peak hour
11:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 11:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 16:00-1.0°C med, n=13
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C med, n=13
today @ 12:00
implied peakvs ecmwf 12°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
at 06:00 this station typically climbs a further +3.8°peak already set on 22% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0012°+3.2°14%
0112°+3.3°17%
0211°+3.4°18%
0311°+3.4°18%
0411°+3.6°20%
0511°+3.7°22%
0611°+3.8°22%
0711°+3.6°22%
0812°+3.0°22%
0912°+2.4°22%
1013°+1.8°28%
1114°+1.2°34%
1214°+0.8°55%
1314°+0.5°69%
1414°+0.4°77%
1514°+0.3°86%
1614°+0.1°92%
1714°+0.1°97%
1813°+0.2°98%
1913°+0.2°98%
2012°+0.1°100%
2112°+0.1°100%
2212°+0.1°100%
2312°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal no wind obs
NW+2.0°n=15
N+0.8°n=227
VARIABLE+0.2°n=27
SW-0.5°n=10
S-2.0°n=87
SE-2.8°n=15
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 9°C 14°C 9°C 13°C
01:00 10°C 8°C 14°C 9°C 13°C
02:00 11°C 8°C 14°C 9°C 12°C
03:00 10°C 8°C 14°C 9°C 12°C
04:00 10°C 8°C 15°C 9°C 12°C
05:00 9°C 6°C 13°C 9°C 12°C
06:00 10°C 5°C 14°C 9°C 12°C
07:00 10°C 6°C 14°C 9°C 12°C
08:00 12°C 8°C 13°C 10°C 12°C
09:00 12°C 9°C 13°C 10°C 13°C
10:00 13°C 9°C 15°C 12°C 14°C
11:00 14°C 9°C 15°C 13°C 14°C
12:00 14°C 9°C 15°C 12°C 15°C
13:00 14°C 10°C 16°C 13°C 15°C
14:00 14°C 9°C 16°C 13°C 15°C
15:00 14°C 10°C 15°C 12°C 15°C
16:00 14°C 9°C 15°C 11°C 14°C
17:00 13°C 9°C 16°C 11°C 14°C
18:00 12°C 9°C 14°C 11°C 13°C
19:00 11°C 8°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
20:00 12°C 8°C 15°C 10°C 13°C
21:00 11°C 9°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
22:00 11°C 9°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
23:00 11°C 9°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 14°C
09-21 15°C
09-20 15°C
09-19 15°C
09-18 14°C
09-17 15°C
09-16 15°C
09-15 15°C
09-14 16°C
09-13 15°C
09-12 14°C
09-11 14°C
09-10 13°C
09-09 14°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
CMA GRAPES14.1°15.1°0.76°most accurate here
UK Met Office13.9°14.1°0.78°
DWD ICON12.7°14.3°0.82°
Environment Canada GEM12.6°14.7°0.89°
ECMWF IFS12.0°13.5°0.93°
NOAA GFS11.6°13.2°1.03°
JMA GSM11.9°13.9°1.09°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
CMA GRAPES0.76°+0.01°72%
UK Met Office0.78°-0.41°75%
DWD ICON0.82°-0.33°72%
Environment Canada GEM0.89°-0.25°71%
ECMWF IFS0.93°-0.59°58%
NOAA GFS1.03°-0.65°55%
JMA GSM1.09°-0.67°53%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/24Z
base23/18Z→24/24Z220° 5kt; 10km+; scattered at 4,500ft
becoming23/19Z→23/21Z360° 12kt
TAF NZWN 231704Z 2318/2424 22005KT 9999 SCT045 BECMG 2319/2321 36012KT
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤8°C0%0%0/65
9°C0%0%0/65
10°C0%3%2/65
11°C1%5%3/65
12°C4%5%3/65
13°C50%12%8/65
14°C43%8%5/65
15°C5%29%19/65
16°C0%23%15/65
17°C0%6%4/65
≥18°C0%9%6/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 103% and climatology to 100%.

Wuhan

02:00 local
ZHHH ↗30.78°, 114.21°sunset 18:18
view on polymarket
2026-09-24
this hour median 21.0°C p25–p75 20.0°C–23.0°C
typical 14:00 27.0°C p25–p75 25.0°C–29.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
live obs
22°C
ZHHH 1800Z
today high so far
23°C
at 19:00
forecast peak
30°C
UK Met Office most accurate here, MAE 1.15°C
22°C
typical further climb+5.5°
expected maximum27°
ZHHH 30.78°, 114.21°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:18
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
18°20°22°24°26°28°30°03:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:0000:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 22°C
18°20°22°24°26°28°30°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 22°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf climatology p25–p75
station report raw METAR ZHHH, 8 obs
METAR ZHHH 231800Z 34001MPS 2800 BR NSC 22/22 Q1015 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 22° 22° 340/02 NSC BR
01:00 22° 22° 360/02 NSC BR
00:00 22° 22° 010/02 NSC BR
23:00 22° 22° 340/02 NSC BR
22:00 22° 22° NSC BR
21:00 22° 22° 210/02 NSC BR
20:00 22° 22° 000/00 NSC BR
19:00 23° 23° 000/00 FEW030 BR
current state
METAR 22°C at 02:00 local, within 14d p25–p75 band (20°C–23°C) ZHHH, tracking climatology
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~23°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (22°C→22°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (22°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥28°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥28°C
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 30°C, current 22°C @ 02:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

daily daily maximum
33°C
14d high, 2026 09 14
avg high27.0°C
p25–p7525.0°C – 29.0°C
days ≥28°C6 / 14
days ≥29°C4 / 14
days ≥30°C3 / 14
peak hour
14:00
most common peak (mode)

14d climatology shows the daily high most often falls at 14:00 local.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

noon noon to peak 14d window
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C med, n=14
12:00 → 17:00+1.0°C med, n=14
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak~26°C (clim) vs ecmwf 30°C
heating passport climb to peak 65 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
22° now at 02:00typically +5.5° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 27°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean peak set
0023°+5.1°12%
0123°+5.2°12%
0223°+5.5°12%
0322°+5.8°12%
0422°+6.0°12%
0522°+6.2°12%
0621°+6.5°12%
0722°+6.1°12%
0823°+5.1°12%
0924°+4.2°12%
1025°+3.1°14%
1126°+2.2°15%
1226°+1.5°27%
1327°+1.0°39%
1427°+0.4°69%
1527°+0.2°89%
1627°+0.0°100%
1727°+0.0°100%
1826°+0.0°100%
1925°+0.1°100%
2024°+0.1°100%
2124°+0.1°100%
2224°+0.0°100%
2323°+0.0°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov anomaly vs normal now N, 2kt
SW+2.8°n=13
E+2.6°n=61
NW+1.3°n=12
VARIABLE+1.3°n=33
W+0.6°n=24
NE-1.0°n=74
N-2.5°n=81
anomaly is the day's max minus this station's own day-of-year normal, so the prevailing direction reads near zero by construction
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
01:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 24°C
02:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
03:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
04:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 19°C 23°C
05:00 21°C 19°C 23°C 19°C 23°C
06:00 20°C 17°C 23°C 19°C 23°C
07:00 21°C 18°C 23°C 19°C 23°C
08:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 24°C
09:00 23°C 18°C 28°C 21°C 24°C
10:00 25°C 18°C 28°C 21°C 26°C
11:00 26°C 18°C 31°C 22°C 27°C
12:00 25°C 18°C 32°C 23°C 28°C
13:00 26°C 18°C 31°C 24°C 28°C
14:00 27°C 19°C 32°C 24°C 29°C
15:00 27°C 19°C 32°C 24°C 29°C
16:00 27°C 19°C 33°C 25°C 29°C
17:00 26°C 19°C 32°C 24°C 29°C
18:00 26°C 19°C 32°C 23°C 28°C
19:00 23°C 19°C 31°C 23°C 26°C
20:00 24°C 19°C 28°C 22°C 25°C
21:00 24°C 19°C 27°C 22°C 25°C
22:00 24°C 19°C 26°C 22°C 25°C
23:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
09-22 24°C
09-21 25°C
09-20 27°C
09-19 28°C
09-18 24°C
09-17 21°C
09-16 27°C
09-15 29°C
09-14 33°C
09-13 32°C
09-12 31°C
09-11 28°C
09-10 25°C
09-09 24°C
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its MAE here
UK Met Office29.8°31.7°1.15°most accurate here
DWD ICON29.7°32.0°1.18°
CMA GRAPES30.9°33.0°1.23°
Environment Canada GEM30.0°32.9°1.36°
NOAA GFS30.9°33.3°1.47°
ECMWF IFS29.4°31.9°1.51°
JMA GSM31.6°33.7°1.63°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy MAE bias ±1°
UK Met Office1.15°-0.54°50%
DWD ICON1.18°-0.98°51%
CMA GRAPES1.23°-0.70°46%
Environment Canada GEM1.36°-0.86°45%
NOAA GFS1.47°-1.31°36%
ECMWF IFS1.51°-1.29°33%
JMA GSM1.63°-1.40°50%
MAE is the average miss, ignoring direction — lower is better. Bias is the average signed error: positive runs warm here, negative runs cold. ±1° is how often the model landed within a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 23/18Z→24/18Z
forecast max29°at 24/07Zmin 21°issued by the national met service
base23/18Z→24/18Z350° 3mps; 2000m; mist; no significant cloud
becoming24/00Z→24/01Z3000m
TAF ZHHH 231509Z 2318/2418 35003MPS 2000 BR NSC TX29/2407Z TN21/2322Z BECMG 2400/2401 3000
market vs climatology today 65 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤25°C0%35%23/65
26°C1%6%4/65
27°C2%9%6/65
28°C5%6%4/65
29°C30%8%5/65
30°C45%2%1/65
31°C18%8%5/65
32°C4%2%1/65
33°C1%6%4/65
34°C0%11%7/65
≥35°C0%8%5/65
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.