station climatology
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Live aviation observations · 48 airport stations

A climatology terminal for temperature markets

Live METAR and decoded TAF, seven forecast models scored against what each station actually recorded, and five years of hourly climatology — for every station a market settles on.

What you get for a station

The climb to peak

At 06:00 a station has most of its warming ahead of it; by 16:00 it usually does not. We hold the hourly distribution for every day of the year, so the page can say how much further this station typically climbs from the hour it is in now — and how often the peak is already behind it.

Which model to trust here

Seven forecast models scored against what the station actually recorded, per city. The best model is not the same everywhere: in a typical city the best and worst are 1.7°C apart, and 37 of 51 markets show a gap over a degree.

Wind regime

Which wind directions run warm or cold at this station, measured against its own day-of-year normal, by season. A southwesterly means something different in London than it does in Seoul.

The aerodrome forecast

The station's own TAF, decoded into plain language, including the forecast maximum where the issuing service publishes one.

Where the numbers come from

Every figure traces to a public source, and the page says which. Station observations and climatology are Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archives, which are public domain. Forecasts are Open-Meteo. Aerodrome forecasts are NOAA. 53 temperature markets at 48 airport stations. 5 settle on the day's low, the rest on its high, and each low market shares a station with its high twin. 51 of them have enough scored history to rank forecast models. Rebuilt every thirty minutes.

Sources and method

stationsall 53

Daily maximum — or the minimum, for the 5 markets badged MIN. Shown in °F where the market settles in °F, °C elsewhere.
— — rebuilt every 30 min
AmsterdamEHAM 22:27
now3°C
peak9°C
AnkaraLTAC 00:27
now-2°C
peak5°C
AtlantaKATL 16:27
now72°F
peak70°F
AustinKAUS 15:27
now64°F
peak65°F
BeijingZBAA 05:27
now-2°C
peak12°C
Buenos AiresSAEZ 18:27
now25°C
peak24°C
BusanRKPK 06:27
now8°C
peak16°C
Cape TownFACT 23:27
now18°C
peak31°C
ChengduZUUU 05:27
now11°C
peak16°C
ChicagoKORD 15:27
now60°F
peak57°F
ChongqingZUCK 05:27
now13°C
peak16°C
DallasKDAL 15:27
now70°F
peak71°F
DenverKDEN 14:27
now71°F
peak68°F
GuangzhouZGGG 05:27
now14°C
peak20°C
HelsinkiEFHK 23:27
now5°C
peak5°C
HoustonKHOU 15:27
now58°F
peak68°F
IstanbulLTFM 00:27
now10°C
peak13°C
JeddahOEJN 00:27
now28°C
peak32°C
KarachiOPKC 02:27
now24°C
peak34°C
Kuala LumpurWMKK 05:27
now24°C
peak31°C
LondonEGLC 21:27
now7°C
peak10°C
LondonMINEGLC 21:27
now7°C
peak5°C
Los AngelesKLAX 13:27
now82°F
peak85°F
LucknowVILK 02:57
now19°C
peak29°C
MadridLEMD 22:27
now13°C
peak18°C
ManilaRPLL 05:27
now26°C
peak30°C
Mexico CityMMMX 15:27
now24°C
peak23°C
MiamiKMIA 16:27
now82°F
peak82°F
MilanLIMC 22:27
now9°C
peak11°C
MoscowUUWW 00:27
now4°C
peak4°C
MunichEDDM 22:27
now4°C
peak8°C
New YorkKLGA 16:27
now58°F
peak57°F
Panama CityMPMG 16:27
now30°C
peak31°C
ParisLFPB 22:27
now8°C
peak10°C
ParisMINLFPB 22:27
now8°C
peak4°C
QingdaoZSQD 05:27
now0°C
peak14°C
San FranciscoKSFO 13:27
now63°F
peak69°F
SeattleKSEA 13:27
now52°F
peak55°F
SeoulRKSI 06:27
now2°C
peak11°C
SeoulMINRKSI 06:27
now2°C
peak5°C
ShanghaiZSPD 05:27
now9°C
peak15°C
ShanghaiMINZSPD 05:27
now9°C
peak11°C
ShenzhenZGSZ 05:27
now16°C
peak22°C
SingaporeWSSS 05:27
now25°C
peak29°C
São PauloSBGR 18:27
now15°C
peak17°C
TaipeiRCSS 05:27
now17°C
peak20°C
Tel AvivLLBG 23:27
now14°C
peak20°C
TokyoRJTT 06:27
now11°C
peak12°C
TokyoMINRJTT 06:27
now11°C
peak6°C
TorontoCYYZ 16:27
now8°C
peak10°C
WarsawEPWA 22:27
now-2°C
peak5°C
WellingtonNZWN 10:27
now17°C
peak18°C
WuhanZHHH 05:27
now4°C
peak14°C

todaywhat is unusual right now

Every station against its own normal for this hour, most unusual first. 26 of 46 are more than 3°C from normal. Stations still climbing come first — those are the days not yet decided. Rebuilt every thirty minutes, and it moves as the world turns.

Open to everyone while this is new. From 1 February 2027 the board below the first five stations becomes part of Pro, alongside a watchlist and a morning brief on the stations you pick; the top five, and every station page, stay free. Hear about it first.

Still climbing21 stations — today is undecided

stationnow vs normal unusual left to go

Peak already set25 stations — today's extreme is in

stationnow vs normalunusual status

“vs normal” is the current reading minus this station's median for this hour across five years, in the unit the market settles in. “Unusual” divides that by the middle-half spread of the same station-hour, so a degree counts for more where a station is steady than where it swings; stations report whole degrees, so that spread has a floor and the figure is shown as a bound past 4σ. A gap of 3°C or more calls the direction of the day's extreme 98.9% of the time when measured at 10:00–13:00 local with the peak still ahead (n=76,096, against an 88.3% base rate). That is persistence, not a forecast edge — it says what today is doing, not that anything is mispriced.

forecast modelsaccuracy by station

51 of 53 markets, 7 models, scored against what each station actually recorded. A market needs 25 scored days to appear, which is why 2 are absent. Errors are in °C everywhere, including markets displayed in °F.
league table average miss across all stations lower is better
modelaccuracy typical missmarkets wonscored
DWD ICONicon_seamless0.97°C1951
UK Met Officeukmo_seamless1.12°C1251
Environment Canada GEMgem_seamless1.15°C651
ECMWF IFSecmwf_ifs0251.27°C451
NOAA GFSgfs_seamless1.28°C851
CMA GRAPEScma_grapes_global1.63°C251
JMA GSMjma_gsm2.17°C051
best model per market minimum 25 scored days
marketmost accurate its typical missworst modelwithin 1°C
AmsterdamDWD ICON0.45°C2.23°C95%AnkaraEnvironment Canada GEM0.74°C2.38°C71%AtlantaNOAA GFS0.56°C2.55°C86%AustinNOAA GFS0.59°C2.62°C83%BeijingUK Met Office1.02°C1.49°C59%Buenos AiresECMWF IFS0.79°C1.56°C75%BusanNOAA GFS0.83°C4.74°C72%Cape TownUK Met Office0.73°C2.31°C74%ChengduDWD ICON1.21°C2.39°C51%ChicagoDWD ICON0.77°C1.26°C76%ChongqingDWD ICON1.03°C2.41°C61%DallasEnvironment Canada GEM0.69°C1.25°C78%DenverNOAA GFS0.91°C2.63°C79%GuangzhouCMA GRAPES0.99°C2.67°C55%HelsinkiEnvironment Canada GEM0.59°C0.96°C84%HoustonEnvironment Canada GEM0.82°C1.99°C78%IstanbulDWD ICON0.62°C2.90°C84%JeddahDWD ICON0.97°C6.56°C61%Kuala LumpurUK Met Office0.63°C3.83°C78%Los AngelesNOAA GFS0.50°C5.65°C88%LondonUK Met Office0.51°C2.26°C91%LondonMINUK Met Office0.51°C2.26°C91%LucknowDWD ICON0.78°C2.44°C78%MadridECMWF IFS0.68°C2.68°C87%ManilaDWD ICON0.85°C1.54°C66%Mexico CityUK Met Office0.86°C2.18°C68%MiamiUK Met Office0.65°C1.82°C82%MilanDWD ICON0.53°C2.81°C91%MoscowDWD ICON0.64°C0.93°C78%MunichDWD ICON0.57°C3.04°C86%New YorkEnvironment Canada GEM0.82°C1.58°C75%ParisDWD ICON0.38°C2.72°C99%ParisMINDWD ICON0.38°C2.72°C99%QingdaoECMWF IFS0.92°C1.46°C66%São PauloECMWF IFS0.88°C1.99°C70%SeattleNOAA GFS1.46°C1.99°C55%SeoulDWD ICON0.77°C3.55°C75%SeoulMINDWD ICON0.77°C3.55°C75%San FranciscoEnvironment Canada GEM1.31°C3.71°C47%ShanghaiUK Met Office0.77°C3.42°C75%ShanghaiMINUK Met Office0.77°C3.42°C75%ShenzhenDWD ICON0.97°C1.72°C59%SingaporeDWD ICON0.56°C2.37°C83%TaipeiNOAA GFS1.08°C3.70°C61%Tel AvivDWD ICON0.39°C2.22°C97%TokyoUK Met Office1.13°C2.83°C63%TokyoMINUK Met Office1.13°C2.83°C63%TorontoNOAA GFS0.63°C3.03°C84%WarsawDWD ICON0.62°C1.56°C86%WellingtonCMA GRAPES0.76°C1.09°C72%WuhanUK Met Office1.15°C1.63°C50%

Scored against the daily maximum the station actually recorded, not against the midpoint of a winning market bucket. A bucket midpoint quantises every error to the nearest degree and its tails are open-ended, so it flatters every model equally.

how to reada station

one worked example, using whatever the weather is doing right now

Every station page answers one question in four steps: how hot will it actually get today. Here is Austin, read the way the tabs are meant to be used. This example is rebuilt with the rest of the site, so the numbers below are the same ones on Austin's own page.

1. Today — what is happening now

It is 64°F there now, about 14.1° cooler than this station usually is at 14:00. This station usually reaches its maximum around 15:00 local, so a reading taken before then still has climbing left to do.

2. Forecasts — whose number to believe

Seven models forecast this station and they disagree. Rather than average them or pick a favourite, each is scored against what this station actually recorded. At Austin the most accurate is NOAA GFS, which misses by about 1.1° on a typical day — so its call for today, 64°F, is the one the page leads with.

3. Climatology — what this station normally does

Five years of hourly observations say what a day like this usually looks like here: how much further it climbs from now, when it peaks, and how far from normal it lands under a given sky or wind.

The cloud regime is the same idea applied to the sky: across five years, overcast days here land -5.6° against that normal and few days +2.0°. Read it as an indicator rather than a cause — a rare sky usually arrives with the weather system that made it rare.

4. Markets — what is priced, beside what has happened

The market currently favours 64-65°F at 92%. Across the 68 days near this date in the record, 0 landed there — 0%.

The one thing worth understanding

Those two numbers are not a disagreement to be settled, and the gap is not a mistake by either side. Climatology is a base rate: it knows nothing whatsoever about today. It describes every November day this station has recorded, warm and cold alike. The market is pricing this day, with today's forecast in hand.

So when the two are far apart, it is usually telling you that today is not a typical day — which is exactly when the base rate is least useful as a prediction and most useful as a yardstick. Here the market is well above the historical rate, which is what an unusually warm spell looks like from the outside: the record has never been this hot near this date, and today is forecast to be.

The site shows the base rate and the price side by side and stops there. It does not tell you which is right, and nothing here is advice.

Now try one

Pick any station and read it in that order — now, forecast, normal, priced. Open Austin, or browse all 53.

sourcesand method

what each number is built from, and what it will not tell you

Observations

Station observations and all climatology come from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet ASOS archive, which republishes METAR reports from national weather services. IEM places its archive in the public domain. Five years of hourly observations per station underpin the climb-to-peak distributions, the day-of-year normals and the wind regimes.

Day-of-year figures are smoothed over a ±7 day window, because a single calendar day gives roughly five samples in five years — too few to quote. The window is why a panel can show a mean that sits close to its own quartiles.

Forecasts

Model forecasts come from Open-Meteo (CC-BY-4.0), covering ECMWF IFS, GFS, ICON, UKMO, GEM, JMA and CMA. Aerodrome forecasts are the TAFs published by NOAA Aviation Weather Center, a United States Government work.

How models are scored

Each model's forecast is compared with the maximum the station actually recorded that day. We do not score against the midpoint of a winning market bucket: a one-degree bucket rounds every error to the nearest degree and its outer buckets are unbounded, which flatters accurate and inaccurate models alike. A city needs 25 scored days before it appears.

What this does not do

It does not forecast. The figures here describe what a station has done historically, given the hour and the day of year, and how well published models have performed against it. A climatological distribution is not a prediction, and on any individual day the weather is free to ignore it.

Temperatures are shown in the unit each market settles in — Fahrenheit for United States stations, Celsius elsewhere. Climbs and anomalies are differences, so they carry no offset when converted.

Markets

Some pages compare a market's own prices with this station's history. Those bucket probabilities come from Polymarket temperature markets and are shown as published, refreshed with each rebuild. A market column may sum to slightly more or less than 100% — prices are quoted independently per bucket and rounded for display. Nothing here is trading advice.

What settles these markets

Polymarket settles each daily temperature market on the airport station's own reports as published on aviationweather.gov (since 23 October 2026; Wunderground before that, and now only a fallback). The figure is the highest reading of the station's local calendar day — the lowest, on a lowest-temperature market — across every report not labelled SPECI, half-hourly reports included. Readings are taken to the tenth of a degree where the report carries it and rounded to the nearest whole degree, with .5 going up; US markets convert those tenths to °F first. Hong Kong is the exception: it settles on the Hong Kong Observatory. The “so far” figures on each city page follow the same rules, from the same reports.

These airports are listed on other venues too, and they do not all settle the same way. Kalshi names The Weather Company rather than the station reading, and for London and Paris it is not even the same airport — its contracts settle on Heathrow and Charles de Gaulle, against the London City and Le Bourget stations used here. So treat this site as describing the Polymarket markets it is built from; elsewhere it is background at best, and for those two cities it does not describe the market at all.

Nearby personal weather stations

City maps show nearby personal weather stations alongside the official airport observation. They are volunteer-operated, unevenly sited and not the instrument any market settles on; they are there for spatial context, not for resolution.

What the counts mean

53 temperature markets at 48 airport stations. 5 settle on the day's low, the rest on its high, and each low market shares a station with its high twin. 51 of them have enough scored history to rank forecast models.

Attribution

Iowa Environmental Mesonet, Iowa State University · Open-Meteo (CC-BY-4.0) · NOAA / National Weather Service.

termsand privacy

what this is, what it is not, and what we keep

This is not financial advice

TempTerminal publishes weather observations, climatology and published forecasts. Some pages place a prediction market's own quoted prices beside what a station has historically done. That is a comparison, not a recommendation. Nothing here is financial, investment or trading advice, no outcome is predicted or guaranteed, and you should not make a financial decision on the basis of this site. Prediction markets can lose money and are not available or lawful everywhere.

A climatological base rate describes what has happened before, given the date and the hour. It knows nothing about today's weather. Where the market and the base rate disagree, the market usually holds information the base rate cannot.

Not affiliated

TempTerminal is an independent project. It is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to Polymarket, the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, Iowa State University, NOAA, the National Weather Service, Open-Meteo, any national meteorological service, or any airport or station operator. Their names appear only to say where a number came from.

Accuracy

Everything here is provided as is. Observations can be missing, late or wrong at source; a station can fail; an upstream service can go down. We show a source and a timestamp on the numbers so you can judge them, and we say when a reading is unavailable rather than showing a stale one silently. We do not warrant that any figure is correct, and we accept no liability for decisions made using them.

What we collect

The site is a static page. There are no accounts, no logins and no cookies set by us. We do not collect personal information, we do not build a profile of you, and we do not sell or share anything, because we do not have anything to sell or share.

The web server records ordinary request logs -- IP address, time, the page requested -- which is what any web server does and what is needed to keep it running and to spot abuse. Your browser also fetches fonts from Google Fonts and map tiles from OpenStreetMap, and those services will see your IP address as a result; their own privacy terms apply.

The one thing we count

We count how many browsers arrive for the first time and how many come back on a later day. That is the only measurement here, and it decides whether this project continues.

It works without identifying you. Your browser stores two dates in its own local storage — the day you first arrived and the last day it was counted — compares them with today, and sends one word, at most once a day: new or return. Alongside it we record which of four buckets your browser falls into — mobile, tablet, desktop or bot — because this site is not yet built for a phone and the share of visits on one decides whether that is worth fixing. The bucket comes from the User-Agent your browser already sends; it is not kept, only which of the four it matched. No version, no operating system, no model, and no identifier. What we keep is a handful of numbers per day. If your browser blocks local storage, nothing is sent at all.

There is no third-party analytics script, no advertising network and no profile of you anywhere in this.

Contact

Corrections about a station, a source or a number are genuinely welcome — they are how this gets more accurate. Write to hello@tempterminal.com. If a figure here looks wrong, say which station and which date and it can be checked against the raw observations.

Amsterdam

21:55 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
3°C
EHAM 2055Z
today high so far
11°C
at 14:55
peakalready set
left to climb+0.3°
observed 21:55 local
usually warmestsunset 16:58
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°5°8°11°14°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 9°CNOW 3°C
2°5°8°11°14°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 9°CNOW 3°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR EHAM, 8 obs
METAR EHAM 092055Z 06002KT 8000 MIFG NSC 03/03 Q1015 BECMG 6000
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:55 3° 3° 060/02 NSC —
21:25 3° 3° 120/01 NSC —
20:55 3° 3° 110/03 NSC —
20:25 5° 4° 130/02 NSC —
19:55 4° 4° 010/01 CAVOK —
19:25 5° 4° 070/02 CAVOK —
18:55 6° 5° 080/03 CAVOK —
18:25 6° 4° 060/02 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 3°C at 21:55 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (10°C this hour) EHAM, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 11°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint falling (3°C→3°C) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 9°C, current 3°C @ 21:55
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 10.0°C usual 6.0°C–11.0°C
typical 14:00 11.0°C usual 9.0°C–14.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d high, 2026 10 29
avg high11.0°C
usual range9.0°C – 14.0°C
days ≥12°C6 / 14
days ≥13°C5 / 14
days ≥14°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–14:00
where the high landed on 79% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 14:00 local on 79% of 112 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 15:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 16:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00-1.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.9°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 20:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 9°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
3° now at 22:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
009°+3.3°13%
019°+3.4°13%
029°+3.4°13%
038°+3.6°13%
049°+3.4°13%
059°+3.5°13%
068°+3.6°15%
078°+3.6°14%
089°+3.4°15%
099°+2.7°16%
1010°+1.8°26%
1111°+1.1°43%
1211°+0.7°57%
1311°+0.5°76%
1412°+0.2°95%
1511°+0.3°97%
1610°+0.3°97%
1710°+0.3°97%
1810°+0.4°97%
199°+0.4°97%
209°+0.4°100%
219°+0.3°100%
229°+0.3°100%
239°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.4°88d
scattered-0.3°137d
broken-0.5°87d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 2kt-0.7° across 18 days (-2.1 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SW+0.9°87d
S+0.5°91d
SE+0.5°54d
E-0.0°31d
NE-0.7°18d
W-1.0°55d
N-1.1°16d
NW-1.2°26d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 8°C 2°C 13°C 5°C 10°C
01:00 8°C 2°C 13°C 4°C 10°C
02:00 8°C 2°C 13°C 5°C 10°C
03:00 8°C 2°C 13°C 5°C 10°C
04:00 7°C 1°C 13°C 6°C 10°C
05:00 7°C 1°C 13°C 6°C 10°C
06:00 7°C 0°C 14°C 5°C 9°C
07:00 8°C 1°C 14°C 6°C 9°C
08:00 8°C 0°C 14°C 5°C 9°C
09:00 8°C 1°C 14°C 5°C 10°C
10:00 10°C 2°C 15°C 6°C 11°C
11:00 10°C 4°C 15°C 8°C 12°C
12:00 11°C 6°C 16°C 8°C 13°C
13:00 10°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 12°C
14:00 10°C 7°C 16°C 9°C 14°C
15:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 9°C 13°C
16:00 10°C 7°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
17:00 10°C 6°C 14°C 8°C 12°C
18:00 9°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 12°C
19:00 9°C 4°C 14°C 7°C 11°C
20:00 10°C 4°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
21:00 10°C 4°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
22:00 9°C 5°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
23:00 8°C 3°C 13°C 6°C 10°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 11°C —
11-08 10°C —
11-07 7°C —
11-06 9°C —
11-05 9°C —
11-04 10°C —
11-03 11°C —
11-02 14°C —
11-01 12°C —
10-31 9°C —
10-30 13°C —
10-29 16°C —
10-28 15°C —
10-27 16°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON10.3°9.1°0.45°most accurate here
UK Met Office10.0°9.3°0.49°
Environment Canada GEM10.1°7.7°0.64°
ECMWF IFS9.6°6.3°0.84°
CMA GRAPES8.5°8.5°0.87°
NOAA GFS10.2°9.9°0.98°
JMA GSM9.1°6.5°2.23°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.45°+0.01°95%
UK Met Office0.49°-0.10°91%
Environment Canada GEM0.64°+0.11°86%
ECMWF IFS0.84°-0.68°66%
CMA GRAPES0.87°-0.77°67%
NOAA GFS0.98°+0.58°64%
JMA GSM2.23°-2.22°13%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
base09/18Z→10/24Zvariable 2kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming09/19Z→09/22Z5000m; shallow fog
becoming09/22Z→10/01Z3000m; mist
becoming10/01Z→10/04Z700m; fog
temporarily30%10/01Z→10/09Z2000m; mist; broken at 2,500ft
possibly30%10/03Z→10/09Z400m; sky obscured
becoming10/08Z→10/11Z110° 7kt; 4000m; mist; broken at 400ft
becoming10/11Z→10/14Z8000m; few at 1,200ft
TAF EHAM 091721Z 0918/1024 VRB02KT CAVOK BECMG 0919/0922 5000 MIFG BECMG 0922/1001 3000 BR BECMG 1001/1004 0700 FG PROB30 TEMPO 1001/1009 2000 BR BKN025 PROB30 1003/1009 0400 VV001 BECMG 1008/1011 11007KT 4000 BR BKN004 BECMG 1011/1014 8000 NSW FEW012
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤5°C0%1%1/68
6°C0%0%0/68
7°C0%1%1/68
8°C0%3%2/68
9°C0%9%6/68
10°C0%10%7/68
11°C100%13%9/68
12°C0%21%14/68
13°C0%15%10/68
14°C0%9%6/68
≥15°C0%18%12/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
-2°C
LTAC 2120Z
today high so far
-2°C
at 00:20
forecast peak5°Environment Canada GEM
climatology alone suggests8°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+9.8°
observed 00:20 local
usually warmestsunset 17:36
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-10°-5°0°5°10°15°02:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:00ECMWF 5°CNOW -2°C
-10°-5°0°5°10°15°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 5°CNOW -2°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LTAC, 8 obs
METAR LTAC 092120Z VRB01KT CAVOK M02/M05 Q1027 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
00:20 -2° -5° — CAVOK —
23:50 -3° -5° — CAVOK —
23:20 -2° -5° — CAVOK —
22:50 -2° -5° — CAVOK —
22:20 -1° -5° 030/04 CAVOK —
21:50 -1° -5° 040/03 CAVOK —
21:20 0° -4° 100/03 CAVOK —
20:50 1° -5° — CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR -2°C at 00:20 local, -12.0°C vs 14d-median (10°C this hour) LTAC, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~0°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (-5°C→-5°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (-2°C @ 00:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥17°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥17°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -12.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current -2°C @ 00:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 10.0°C usual 6.0°C–10.0°C
typical 15:00 16.0°C usual 11.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
19°C
14d high, 2026 10 28
avg high16.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥17°C6 / 14
days ≥18°C2 / 14
days ≥19°C1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 84% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 84% of 138 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+1.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 20:00-4.6°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:20)
implied peak~15°C (clim) vs ecmwf 5°C
heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
-2° now at 00:00typically +9.8° more (p90 +14.0°)expected peak 8°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
006°+9.8°0%
015°+10.4°0%
025°+11.0°0%
034°+11.3°0%
044°+11.9°0%
053°+12.2°0%
063°+12.4°0%
073°+12.6°0%
084°+11.4°0%
097°+8.8°1%
1010°+5.9°3%
1112°+3.6°6%
1214°+1.9°13%
1315°+0.9°45%
1415°+0.4°79%
1515°+0.2°97%
1615°+0.3°100%
1713°+0.5°100%
1811°+0.4°100%
1910°+0.4°100%
209°+0.5°100%
218°+0.5°100%
227°+0.4°100%
236°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.1°36d
scattered+0.1°132d
broken-1.3°121d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
SW+2.2°90d
S+0.7°15d
VARIABLE+0.0°16d
W-0.3°50d
NE-2.0°54d
E-2.1°24d
N-3.0°13d
NW-4.1°15d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C -3°C 12°C 6°C 10°C
01:00 9°C -3°C 12°C 6°C 10°C
02:00 9°C -4°C 12°C 6°C 10°C
03:00 9°C -4°C 12°C 6°C 9°C
04:00 8°C -4°C 11°C 6°C 9°C
05:00 8°C -4°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
06:00 8°C -6°C 11°C 4°C 10°C
07:00 9°C -5°C 11°C 4°C 10°C
08:00 8°C -6°C 11°C 4°C 10°C
09:00 9°C -4°C 12°C 6°C 10°C
10:00 10°C -1°C 13°C 7°C 13°C
11:00 12°C 1°C 16°C 7°C 14°C
12:00 13°C 3°C 16°C 8°C 15°C
13:00 14°C 4°C 19°C 10°C 16°C
14:00 15°C 5°C 18°C 9°C 16°C
15:00 14°C 5°C 17°C 9°C 15°C
16:00 14°C 5°C 17°C 9°C 16°C
17:00 14°C 5°C 17°C 9°C 16°C
18:00 13°C 3°C 15°C 9°C 15°C
19:00 12°C 1°C 15°C 8°C 13°C
20:00 11°C 1°C 13°C 7°C 12°C
21:00 11°C -1°C 13°C 8°C 12°C
22:00 10°C -1°C 12°C 7°C 12°C
23:00 10°C -1°C 12°C 7°C 11°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 8°C —
11-08 5°C —
11-07 7°C —
11-06 11°C —
11-05 12°C —
11-04 16°C —
11-03 17°C —
11-02 17°C —
11-01 17°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 17°C —
10-29 14°C —
10-28 19°C —
10-27 18°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
Environment Canada GEM5.2°8.9°0.74°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS3.1°10.3°0.78°
DWD ICON2.5°9.9°1.03°
NOAA GFS7.2°10.4°1.13°
UK Met Office4.0°8.6°1.30°
JMA GSM5.7°11.9°1.39°
CMA GRAPES7.7°10.2°2.38°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
Environment Canada GEM0.74°-0.50°71%
ECMWF IFS0.78°-0.60°78%
DWD ICON1.03°-1.00°57%
NOAA GFS1.13°-1.00°42%
UK Met Office1.30°-1.24°41%
JMA GSM1.39°-1.29°38%
CMA GRAPES2.38°-2.32°7%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
base09/18Z→10/18Zvariable 2kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming10/00Z→10/02Zscattered at 4,000ft; broken at 10,000ft
temporarily10/09Z→10/13Zlight showers snow; broken at 3,000ft; broken at 8,000ft
TAF LTAC 091640Z 0918/1018 VRB02KT CAVOK BECMG 1000/1002 SCT040 BKN100 TEMPO 1009/1013 -SHSN BKN030 BKN080
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤0°C0%0%0/67
1°C0%0%0/67
2°C7%0%0/67
3°C30%0%0/67
4°C32%0%0/67
5°C17%1%1/67
6°C7%0%0/67
7°C2%1%1/67
8°C1%1%1/67
9°C0%0%0/67
≥10°C0%96%64/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 96% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
72°F
KATL 2052Z
today high so far
73°F
at 13:52
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
observed 15:52 local
usually warmestsunset 17:39
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
36°44°52°60°68°18:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:00ECMWF 70°FNOW 72°F
36°44°52°60°68°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 70°FNOW 72°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KATL, 8 obs
METAR KATL 092052Z 34012KT 10SM FEW180 FEW250 22/04 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP192 T02220039 55010
local temp dew wind cloud wx
15:52 72° 39° 340/12 FEW180 —
14:52 73° 39° 340/10 FEW180 —
13:52 73° 39° 350/13 FEW200 —
12:52 71° 41° 320/11 FEW180 —
11:52 68° 39° 300/06 SCT250 —
10:52 63° 38° 340/07 SCT250 —
09:52 58° 37° 310/06 SCT250 —
08:52 53° 38° 320/10 FEW150 —
current state
✓
METAR 72°F at 15:52 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (69°F–74°F) KATL, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 73°F climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°F/h, dewpoint falling (39°F→39°F) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +0.9°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 70°F, current 72°F @ 15:52
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 71.1°F usual 69.1°F–73.9°F
typical 14:00 71.1°F usual 70.0°F–73.9°F
noon → peak climb +3.6°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
80°F
14d high, 2026 11 05
avg high71.1°F
usual range70.0°F – 73.9°F
days ≥72°F6 / 14
days ≥73°F6 / 14
days ≥74°F3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 80% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 80% of 131 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+1.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-0.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-4.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-5.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-6.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0071°F
implied peak75°F vs ecmwf 70°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
72° now at 16:00peak already set on 99% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0057°+12.3°7%
0156°+12.9°7%
0256°+13.6°7%
0355°+14.1°7%
0455°+14.6°7%
0554°+14.7°7%
0654°+15.1°7%
0755°+14.3°7%
0857°+11.8°7%
0960°+9.2°9%
1063°+6.1°12%
1165°+3.8°13%
1267°+2.1°21%
1368°+1.0°52%
1468°+0.5°81%
1568°+0.2°93%
1667°+0.0°99%
1765°+0.1°100%
1863°+0.2°100%
1961°+0.2°100%
2060°+0.1°100%
2159°+0.1°100%
2258°+0.1°100%
2357°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew+0.3° across 107 days (-1.0 to +1.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.3°22d
few+0.3°107d
scattered+2.5°89d
broken+0.8°112d
overcast-6.3°58d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 12kt-1.4° across 25 days (-5.8 to +3.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SW+4.1°28d
VARIABLE+3.9°14d
W+2.9°43d
S+2.0°17d
SE+1.5°23d
NE-0.5°35d
N-1.4°25d
NW-1.4°79d
E-2.2°110d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 62°F 50°F 70°F 55°F 65°F
01:00 61°F 48°F 70°F 56°F 64°F
02:00 60°F 48°F 70°F 54°F 64°F
03:00 59°F 46°F 69°F 54°F 63°F
04:00 58°F 46°F 69°F 53°F 62°F
05:00 59°F 45°F 69°F 52°F 62°F
06:00 58°F 45°F 69°F 53°F 60°F
07:00 57°F 45°F 69°F 51°F 61°F
08:00 58°F 48°F 70°F 52°F 60°F
09:00 60°F 52°F 70°F 56°F 62°F
10:00 62°F 56°F 72°F 59°F 64°F
11:00 66°F 56°F 72°F 62°F 66°F
12:00 67°F 62°F 73°F 63°F 70°F
13:00 70°F 63°F 78°F 68°F 72°F
14:00 70°F 63°F 80°F 69°F 73°F
15:00 71°F 62°F 80°F 69°F 74°F
16:00 71°F 62°F 80°F 69°F 74°F
17:00 71°F 60°F 80°F 69°F 74°F
18:00 70°F 59°F 77°F 66°F 72°F
19:00 68°F 59°F 73°F 65°F 70°F
20:00 66°F 57°F 70°F 64°F 70°F
21:00 64°F 55°F 70°F 62°F 68°F
22:00 63°F 53°F 70°F 60°F 67°F
23:00 63°F 51°F 70°F 57°F 66°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 63°F —
11-08 70°F —
11-07 68°F —
11-06 74°F —
11-05 80°F —
11-04 71°F —
11-03 71°F —
11-02 70°F —
11-01 63°F —
10-31 71°F —
10-30 80°F —
10-29 76°F —
10-28 74°F —
10-27 74°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by6.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS73.8°72.1°1.00°most accurate here
UK Met Office66.9°66.0°1.64°
DWD ICON70.9°71.1°1.72°
ECMWF IFS68.9°68.9°2.11°
CMA GRAPES68.5°69.1°2.16°
Environment Canada GEM69.1°68.5°2.26°
JMA GSM69.8°72.0°4.59°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS1.00°+0.06°86%
UK Met Office1.64°-1.11°62%
DWD ICON1.72°-1.18°64%
ECMWF IFS2.11°-1.66°57%
CMA GRAPES2.16°-1.08°51%
Environment Canada GEM2.26°-1.91°45%
JMA GSM4.59°-4.51°9%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/20Z→10/24Z
base09/20Z→10/24Z320° 12kt; >6 statute miles; few at 20,000ft
from10/00Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from10/14Z onwards330° 4kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
TAF KATL 091953Z 0920/1024 32012KT P6SM FEW200 FM100000 VRB03KT P6SM FEW250 FM101400 33004KT P6SM FEW250
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤59°F0%15%10/68
60-61°F0%0%0/68
62-63°F0%6%4/68
64-65°F0%4%3/68
66-67°F0%9%6/68
68-69°F0%7%5/68
70-71°F0%12%8/68
72-73°F99%6%4/68
74-75°F1%16%11/68
76-77°F0%9%6/68
≥78°F0%16%11/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
64°F
KAUS 2053Z
today high so far
64°F
at 13:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 14:53 local
usually warmestsunset 17:38
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
52°58°64°70°76°82°17:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:00ECMWF 65°FNOW 64°F
52°58°64°70°76°82°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 65°FNOW 64°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KAUS, 8 obs
METAR KAUS 092053Z 32004KT 10SM SCT026 BKN036 OVC100 18/13 A3019 RMK AO2 RAE19 SLP219 P0000 60000 T01780128 55009 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:53 64° 55° 320/04 OVC100 —
13:53 64° 54° 360/04 OVC130 -RA
12:53 63° 53° — OVC110 —
11:53 62° 53° 000/00 BKN120 -RA
10:53 61° 54° 140/08 BKN120 —
09:53 61° 59° 110/08 BKN120 —
08:53 61° 59° 020/07 OVC110 BR
07:53 60° 59° 000/00 OVC110 -RA BR
current state
▼
METAR 64°F at 14:53 local, -14.1°F vs 14d-median (78°F this hour) KAUS, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +5.0°F (n=14) — projects to ~69°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°F/h, dewpoint falling (54°F→55°F) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (64°F @ 14:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥80°F possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥80°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -14.1°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 65°F, current 64°F @ 14:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 78.1°F usual 71.1°F–82.0°F
typical 15:00 79.0°F usual 71.1°F–82.0°F
noon → peak climb +5.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
85°F
14d high, 2026 11 02
avg high79.0°F
usual range71.1°F – 82.0°F
days ≥80°F6 / 14
days ≥81°F5 / 14
days ≥82°F5 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 79% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 79% of 135 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+1.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+2.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+2.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-3.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-7.0°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-9.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-10.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0063°F
implied peak68°F vs ecmwf 65°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
64° now at 15:00peak already set on 94% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0059°+17.0°0%
0159°+17.7°0%
0258°+18.2°0%
0358°+18.7°0%
0457°+19.3°0%
0557°+19.5°0%
0657°+19.5°0%
0760°+16.8°0%
0863°+13.5°1%
0966°+10.2°1%
1069°+7.4°2%
1171°+5.1°4%
1273°+3.0°7%
1375°+1.5°24%
1475°+0.5°75%
1576°+0.1°94%
1674°+0.0°99%
1770°+0.0°100%
1866°+0.6°100%
1964°+0.7°100%
2062°+0.9°100%
2162°+0.6°100%
2261°+0.3°100%
2360°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast5.6° below normal across 57 days (-8.0 to -3.3).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.6°47d
few+2.0°95d
scattered+1.2°103d
broken+0.9°86d
overcast-5.6°57d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 4kt+0.6° across 17 days (-3.2 to +4.4) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+5.4°114d
SW+4.6°14d
VARIABLE+1.6°17d
NW+0.6°17d
CALM-0.4°24d
SE-0.4°39d
E-1.9°30d
NE-3.8°61d
N-6.4°54d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 66°F 55°F 75°F 61°F 68°F
01:00 65°F 53°F 75°F 59°F 67°F
02:00 64°F 55°F 75°F 60°F 66°F
03:00 63°F 53°F 75°F 60°F 66°F
04:00 62°F 52°F 76°F 59°F 66°F
05:00 61°F 52°F 70°F 59°F 66°F
06:00 62°F 51°F 69°F 58°F 66°F
07:00 61°F 52°F 69°F 57°F 66°F
08:00 65°F 57°F 70°F 59°F 67°F
09:00 66°F 58°F 74°F 61°F 69°F
10:00 68°F 59°F 78°F 62°F 70°F
11:00 71°F 61°F 81°F 64°F 74°F
12:00 75°F 62°F 82°F 70°F 78°F
13:00 77°F 62°F 83°F 69°F 80°F
14:00 78°F 62°F 85°F 71°F 82°F
15:00 79°F 62°F 84°F 74°F 82°F
16:00 78°F 62°F 84°F 74°F 82°F
17:00 79°F 61°F 83°F 73°F 82°F
18:00 75°F 62°F 81°F 69°F 79°F
19:00 71°F 62°F 80°F 67°F 76°F
20:00 69°F 60°F 78°F 67°F 70°F
21:00 69°F 58°F 76°F 63°F 70°F
22:00 68°F 58°F 75°F 66°F 69°F
23:00 66°F 56°F 75°F 63°F 69°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 61°F —
11-08 62°F —
11-07 70°F —
11-06 74°F —
11-05 83°F —
11-04 79°F —
11-03 82°F —
11-02 85°F —
11-01 84°F —
10-31 79°F —
10-30 71°F —
10-29 74°F —
10-28 81°F —
10-27 82°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS64.0°67.5°1.06°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM67.8°68.9°1.37°
DWD ICON64.9°64.2°1.38°
UK Met Office66.4°73.4°1.42°
ECMWF IFS68.7°70.7°2.12°
CMA GRAPES65.7°68.7°2.79°
JMA GSM62.8°68.7°4.71°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS1.06°-0.76°83%
Environment Canada GEM1.37°-0.88°72%
DWD ICON1.38°-0.37°74%
UK Met Office1.42°-1.02°74%
ECMWF IFS2.12°-1.84°53%
CMA GRAPES2.79°-2.38°36%
JMA GSM4.71°-4.49°9%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Zvariable 4kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 3,500ft
temporarily09/21Z→09/24Z5 statute miles; light rain; broken at 2,500ft
from10/03Z onwardsvariable 2kt; 6 statute miles; mist; scattered at 700ft; broken at 1,200ft
from10/09Z onwards200° 1kt; 2 statute miles; mist; overcast at 400ft
from10/17Z onwards170° 4kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 1,800ft
TAF KAUS 092102Z 0921/1024 VRB04KT P6SM SCT025 BKN035 TEMPO 0921/0924 5SM -RA BKN025 FM100300 VRB02KT 6SM BR SCT007 BKN012 FM100900 20001KT 2SM BR OVC004 FM101700 17004KT P6SM BKN018
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤57°F0%4%3/68
58-59°F0%4%3/68
60-61°F0%3%2/68
62-63°F0%6%4/68
64-65°F92%0%0/68
66-67°F6%3%2/68
68-69°F1%0%0/68
70-71°F0%4%3/68
72-73°F0%3%2/68
74-75°F0%6%4/68
≥76°F0%66%45/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
-2°C
ZBAA 2100Z
today high so far
0°C
at 00:00
forecast peak12°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests9°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+10.8°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:02
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-11°-5°1°7°13°19°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 12°CNOW -2°C
-11°-5°1°7°13°19°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 12°CNOW -2°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZBAA, 8 obs
METAR ZBAA 092100Z VRB01MPS CAVOK M02/M03 Q1029 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 -2° -3° — CAVOK —
04:30 0° -2° — CAVOK —
04:00 -2° -3° 330/04 CAVOK —
03:30 -1° -2° 330/04 CAVOK —
03:00 -2° -3° — CAVOK —
02:30 -1° -3° — CAVOK —
02:00 -1° -3° — CAVOK —
01:30 -1° -2° — CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR -2°C at 05:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (3°C this hour) ZBAA, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~-1°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint falling (-2°C→-3°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (-2°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥17°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥17°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 12°C, current -2°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 3.0°C usual 0.0°C–4.0°C
typical 14:00 16.0°C usual 12.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
22°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high16.0°C
usual range12.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥17°C6 / 14
days ≥18°C6 / 14
days ≥19°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 81% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 81% of 133 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+1.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-3.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-5.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-6.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 12°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
-2° now at 05:00typically +10.8° more (p90 +18.0°)expected peak 9°peak already set on 7% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
005°+9.2°6%
014°+9.6°6%
024°+9.8°7%
034°+10.2°7%
043°+10.6°7%
053°+10.8°7%
063°+10.8°7%
074°+10.5°7%
086°+7.8°7%
098°+5.5°7%
1010°+3.9°10%
1111°+2.7°10%
1212°+1.6°28%
1313°+0.9°58%
1414°+0.3°90%
1513°+0.2°99%
1613°+0.4°100%
1710°+0.6°100%
188°+0.6°100%
197°+0.6°100%
206°+0.6°100%
215°+0.4°100%
225°+0.5°100%
235°+0.3°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
W+1.5°22d
SW+1.2°11d
VARIABLE+0.4°36d
S+0.3°31d
NW+0.2°62d
SE+0.1°31d
N-0.9°59d
NE-1.9°13d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 5°C 0°C 11°C 2°C 5°C
01:00 4°C 0°C 11°C 1°C 8°C
02:00 4°C -2°C 11°C 2°C 5°C
03:00 3°C 0°C 9°C 1°C 5°C
04:00 3°C -3°C 8°C 0°C 5°C
05:00 3°C -3°C 9°C 0°C 4°C
06:00 2°C -4°C 8°C -1°C 3°C
07:00 2°C -3°C 8°C 1°C 4°C
08:00 5°C -2°C 10°C 3°C 7°C
09:00 9°C 3°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
10:00 11°C 4°C 17°C 9°C 13°C
11:00 12°C 5°C 20°C 10°C 15°C
12:00 13°C 6°C 21°C 11°C 17°C
13:00 15°C 7°C 21°C 12°C 18°C
14:00 16°C 5°C 21°C 12°C 18°C
15:00 16°C 4°C 22°C 12°C 18°C
16:00 15°C 3°C 21°C 12°C 18°C
17:00 14°C 3°C 20°C 11°C 15°C
18:00 11°C 3°C 18°C 8°C 14°C
19:00 7°C 3°C 17°C 7°C 10°C
20:00 8°C 2°C 14°C 5°C 10°C
21:00 6°C 2°C 15°C 4°C 9°C
22:00 6°C 2°C 14°C 3°C 9°C
23:00 5°C 2°C 12°C 3°C 7°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 0°C —
11-09 12°C —
11-08 10°C —
11-07 7°C —
11-06 15°C —
11-05 19°C —
11-04 13°C —
11-03 19°C —
11-02 18°C —
11-01 18°C —
10-31 12°C —
10-30 22°C —
10-29 20°C —
10-28 16°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office11.6°10.1°1.02°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS11.5°10.9°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM13.5°12.1°1.15°
CMA GRAPES12.4°10.1°1.19°
JMA GSM15.4°13.3°1.19°
DWD ICON13.0°11.3°1.21°
NOAA GFS14.0°13.1°1.49°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office1.02°-0.67°59%
ECMWF IFS1.09°-0.61°58%
Environment Canada GEM1.15°+0.08°54%
CMA GRAPES1.19°-0.75°50%
JMA GSM1.19°-0.44°51%
DWD ICON1.21°-1.07°53%
NOAA GFS1.49°+0.46°42%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max13°at 10/06Zmin -1°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z340° 4mps; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
TAF ZBAA 091500Z 0918/1024 34004MPS CAVOK TX13/1006Z TNM02/0921Z TNM01/1021Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤7°C0%7%5/68
8°C0%4%3/68
9°C0%4%3/68
10°C0%3%2/68
11°C0%6%4/68
12°C0%4%3/68
13°C7%12%8/68
14°C26%6%4/68
15°C38%15%10/68
16°C26%12%8/68
≥17°C10%26%18/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 108% and climatology to 100%.

Buenos Aires

18:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
25°C
SAEZ 2100Z
today high so far
26°C
at 16:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
observed 18:00 local
usually warmestsunset 19:31
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
5°9°13°17°21°25°20:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 25°C
2°7°12°17°22°27°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 24°CNOW 25°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR SAEZ, 8 obs
METAR SAEZ 092100Z 02011KT CAVOK 25/09 Q1020 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
18:00 25° 9° 020/11 CAVOK —
17:00 25° 9° 050/09 CAVOK —
16:00 26° 8° 020/07 CAVOK —
15:00 25° 9° 050/09 CAVOK —
14:00 25° 10° 050/07 CAVOK —
13:00 25° 7° 350/09 CAVOK —
12:00 24° 8° 360/08 CAVOK —
11:00 23° 8° 360/09 CAVOK —
current state
▲
METAR 25°C at 18:00 local, +4.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) SAEZ, running ahead of climatology
✓
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 26°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.2°C/h, dewpoint rising (9°C→9°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +4.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 24°C, current 25°C @ 18:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 21.0°C usual 18.0°C–23.0°C
typical 15:00 25.0°C usual 22.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
27°C
14d high, 2026 11 05
avg high25.0°C
usual range22.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥26°C4 / 14
days ≥27°C1 / 14
days ≥28°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 73% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 73% of 129 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=68
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+1.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-3.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0024°C
implied peak25°C vs ecmwf 24°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
25° now at 18:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0016°+9.2°4%
0116°+9.8°4%
0215°+10.2°4%
0315°+10.6°4%
0414°+11.1°4%
0514°+11.3°4%
0614°+11.6°4%
0716°+9.8°4%
0818°+7.3°6%
0920°+5.3°6%
1022°+3.8°7%
1123°+2.7°10%
1224°+1.8°18%
1324°+1.0°35%
1425°+0.6°61%
1525°+0.3°91%
1625°+0.2°96%
1724°+0.1°99%
1824°+0.0°100%
1922°+0.0°100%
2020°+0.1°100%
2119°+0.1°100%
2218°+0.2°100%
2317°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.3°29d
broken-1.8°46d
overcast-3.9°37d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 11kt3.2° above normal across 37 days (+2.2 to +4.1).
coldernormalwarmer
N+3.2°37d
NW+2.6°26d
NE+2.0°96d
VARIABLE+1.8°12d
W+0.8°32d
E-0.7°67d
SW-1.1°30d
S-2.5°48d
SE-2.9°35d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 15°C 7°C 19°C 13°C 16°C
01:00 14°C 6°C 18°C 11°C 16°C
02:00 14°C 5°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
03:00 14°C 5°C 18°C 10°C 15°C
04:00 12°C 4°C 18°C 10°C 15°C
05:00 12°C 4°C 19°C 10°C 16°C
06:00 12°C 4°C 19°C 10°C 15°C
07:00 13°C 7°C 20°C 11°C 16°C
08:00 16°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 19°C
09:00 18°C 13°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
10:00 22°C 14°C 23°C 17°C 22°C
11:00 22°C 14°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
12:00 23°C 15°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
13:00 23°C 15°C 26°C 21°C 25°C
14:00 23°C 16°C 26°C 21°C 25°C
15:00 24°C 17°C 27°C 19°C 25°C
16:00 24°C 17°C 27°C 19°C 25°C
17:00 21°C 16°C 27°C 19°C 25°C
18:00 21°C 16°C 25°C 18°C 23°C
19:00 19°C 15°C 25°C 18°C 21°C
20:00 18°C 15°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
21:00 17°C 9°C 18°C 16°C 18°C
22:00 16°C 8°C 20°C 15°C 18°C
23:00 15°C 7°C 19°C 13°C 16°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 25°C —
11-08 23°C —
11-07 17°C —
11-06 25°C —
11-05 27°C —
11-04 26°C —
11-03 23°C —
11-02 26°C —
11-01 22°C —
10-31 26°C —
10-30 24°C —
10-29 25°C —
10-28 25°C —
10-27 19°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
ECMWF IFS24.8°27.2°0.79°most accurate here
UK Met Office26.0°28.4°1.01°
DWD ICON24.4°26.1°1.03°
CMA GRAPES22.5°24.0°1.06°
Environment Canada GEM24.7°26.7°1.20°
NOAA GFS24.5°26.2°1.22°
JMA GSM23.3°26.1°1.56°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
ECMWF IFS0.79°-0.45°75%
UK Met Office1.01°-0.47°53%
DWD ICON1.03°-0.85°55%
CMA GRAPES1.06°-0.49°55%
Environment Canada GEM1.20°+0.06°49%
NOAA GFS1.22°-0.74°46%
JMA GSM1.56°-1.15°38%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
forecast max28°at 10/18Zmin 14°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Z020° 10kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming09/23Z→10/01Z090° 5kt
becoming10/09Z→10/11Z020° 10kt
TAF SAEZ 091700Z 0918/1018 02010KT CAVOK TX28/1018Z TN14/1009Z BECMG 0923/1001 09005KT BECMG 1009/1011 02010KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤19°C0%6%4/68
20°C0%6%4/68
21°C0%1%1/68
22°C0%4%3/68
23°C0%7%5/68
24°C0%9%6/68
25°C0%12%8/68
26°C100%15%10/68
27°C0%7%5/68
28°C0%13%9/68
≥29°C0%19%13/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
8°C
RKPK 2100Z
today high so far
10°C
at 00:00
forecast peak16°NOAA GFS
climatology alone suggests18°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+9.7°
observed 06:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:22
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
4°7°10°13°16°19°08:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 8°C
4°7°10°13°16°19°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 8°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RKPK, 8 obs
METAR RKPK 092100Z 33008KT 9999 FEW030 08/05 Q1025
local temp dew wind cloud wx
06:00 8° 5° 330/08 FEW030 —
05:00 8° 6° 330/06 FEW030 —
04:00 8° 6° 310/07 FEW030 —
03:00 9° 6° 330/08 SCT200 —
02:00 10° 7° 320/07 BKN200 —
01:00 10° 7° 330/07 BKN160 —
00:00 10° 7° 340/09 BKN140 —
23:00 10° 7° 320/08 BKN140 —
current state
✓
METAR 8°C at 06:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (6°C–11°C) RKPK, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~9°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°C/h, dewpoint rising (6°C→5°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (8°C @ 06:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥18°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥18°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 16°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 8.0°C usual 6.0°C–11.0°C
typical 14:00 17.0°C usual 15.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
21°C
14d high, 2026 10 31
avg high17.0°C
usual range15.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥18°C4 / 14
days ≥19°C4 / 14
days ≥20°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 63% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 63% of 137 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+1.2°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 06:00)
implied peak~16°C (clim) vs ecmwf 16°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
8° now at 06:00typically +9.7° more (p90 +14.0°)expected peak 18°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+7.9°1%
0110°+8.2°1%
029°+8.6°0%
039°+9.0°0%
049°+9.2°0%
059°+9.4°0%
068°+9.7°0%
078°+9.5°0%
0810°+8.3°0%
0911°+6.5°0%
1013°+4.6°1%
1115°+2.8°7%
1216°+1.5°19%
1317°+0.6°48%
1418°+0.1°89%
1518°+0.0°99%
1617°+0.0°100%
1716°+0.0°100%
1814°+0.0°100%
1913°+0.1°100%
2012°+0.1°100%
2112°+0.1°100%
2211°+0.1°100%
2310°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew+0.3° across 48 days (-0.4 to +1.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.3°48d
scattered+0.8°74d
broken+0.1°134d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 8kt1.0° below normal across 110 days (-1.6 to -0.4).
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.7°19d
SW+1.8°38d
E+1.5°12d
VARIABLE+1.4°27d
W+1.0°12d
NE-0.3°111d
N-0.6°39d
NW-1.0°110d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 11°C 4°C 13°C 9°C 12°C
01:00 10°C 4°C 13°C 9°C 11°C
02:00 10°C 3°C 14°C 8°C 11°C
03:00 9°C 3°C 13°C 8°C 11°C
04:00 9°C 3°C 14°C 7°C 11°C
05:00 9°C 2°C 14°C 7°C 11°C
06:00 8°C 3°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
07:00 9°C 3°C 13°C 7°C 11°C
08:00 10°C 3°C 13°C 8°C 12°C
09:00 11°C 6°C 17°C 10°C 13°C
10:00 13°C 7°C 18°C 10°C 15°C
11:00 14°C 10°C 19°C 12°C 16°C
12:00 15°C 12°C 19°C 13°C 17°C
13:00 15°C 13°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
14:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 19°C
15:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 15°C 19°C
16:00 16°C 12°C 21°C 15°C 19°C
17:00 15°C 10°C 20°C 14°C 17°C
18:00 15°C 10°C 18°C 13°C 16°C
19:00 13°C 8°C 18°C 10°C 14°C
20:00 13°C 8°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
21:00 12°C 6°C 14°C 10°C 13°C
22:00 11°C 5°C 14°C 10°C 12°C
23:00 11°C 5°C 14°C 10°C 12°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 10°C —
11-09 14°C —
11-08 15°C —
11-07 14°C —
11-06 17°C —
11-05 15°C —
11-04 15°C —
11-03 19°C —
11-02 19°C —
11-01 15°C —
10-31 21°C —
10-30 21°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 17°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS15.5°16.2°0.83°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM16.6°17.6°0.96°
ECMWF IFS16.4°16.8°1.14°
UK Met Office15.9°15.8°1.20°
DWD ICON16.6°16.7°2.34°
CMA GRAPES15.6°15.8°2.37°
JMA GSM16.9°16.9°4.74°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS0.83°-0.01°72%
Environment Canada GEM0.96°-0.50°58%
ECMWF IFS1.14°-0.29°62%
UK Met Office1.20°-0.85°49%
DWD ICON2.34°-2.27°12%
CMA GRAPES2.37°-2.27°13%
JMA GSM4.74°-4.68°3%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max16°at 10/06Zmin 6°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z330° 8kt; 10km+; scattered at 3,000ft; broken at 20,000ft
becoming10/08Z→10/09Z330° 6kt
TAF RKPK 091700Z 0918/1024 33008KT 9999 SCT030 BKN200 TN06/0921Z TX16/1006Z BECMG 1008/1009 33006KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤12°C0%7%5/68
13°C0%4%3/68
14°C0%6%4/68
15°C5%9%6/68
16°C26%4%3/68
17°C55%13%9/68
18°C14%7%5/68
19°C1%16%11/68
20°C0%10%7/68
21°C0%7%5/68
≥22°C0%15%10/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Cape Town

23:05 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
18°C
FACT 2105Z
today high so far
33°C
at 13:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
observed 23:05 local
usually warmestsunset 19:21
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-4°4°12°20°28°01:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 18°C
-4°4°12°20°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 18°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR FACT, 8 obs
SPECI FACT 092105Z 18014KT 9999 BKN010 18/16 Q1020 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
23:05 18° 16° 180/14 BKN010 —
23:00 18° 16° 180/14 BKN010 —
22:00 18° 16° 190/11 SCT010 —
21:00 18° 16° 190/11 FEW010 —
20:00 18° 16° 180/10 FEW012 —
19:00 19° 15° 170/12 CAVOK —
18:00 23° 11° 160/16 CAVOK —
17:00 25° 10° 160/15 CAVOK —
current state
✓
METAR 18°C at 23:05 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (16°C–18°C) FACT, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 33°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (16°C→16°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 31°C
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 18.0°C usual 16.0°C–18.0°C
typical 14:00 24.0°C usual 21.0°C–25.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
33°C
14d high, 2026 11 09
avg high24.0°C
usual range21.0°C – 25.0°C
days ≥25°C5 / 14
days ≥26°C3 / 14
days ≥27°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–14:00
where the high landed on 80% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 14:00 local on 80% of 137 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=68
12:00 → 14:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=68
12:00 → 15:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=68
12:00 → 17:00-1.4°C mean, 5y, n=68
12:00 → 18:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-3.9°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-5.2°C mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 31°C
heating passport climb to peak 63 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
18° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0017°+7.5°0%
0117°+7.7°0%
0216°+8.2°0%
0316°+8.5°0%
0416°+8.7°0%
0515°+9.2°0%
0615°+9.2°0%
0717°+7.5°0%
0819°+5.6°0%
0921°+3.9°3%
1022°+2.8°6%
1123°+1.9°16%
1223°+1.0°46%
1324°+0.7°69%
1424°+0.3°88%
1523°+0.2°97%
1623°+0.0°100%
1722°+0.0°100%
1821°+0.0°100%
1919°+0.0°100%
2018°+0.1°100%
2118°+0.1°100%
2217°+0.2°100%
2317°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken2.9° below normal across 66 days (-3.3 to -2.6).
coldernormalwarmer
few-1.1°65d
scattered-2.0°73d
broken-2.9°66d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowS at 14kt+0.1° across 192 days (-0.4 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SE+2.0°20d
VARIABLE+1.1°13d
SW+0.9°42d
S+0.1°192d
N-0.4°19d
NW-1.2°80d
W-1.9°10d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 15°C 18°C 16°C 18°C
01:00 17°C 15°C 18°C 16°C 18°C
02:00 17°C 14°C 18°C 15°C 18°C
03:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
04:00 16°C 11°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
05:00 15°C 10°C 18°C 14°C 16°C
06:00 15°C 10°C 18°C 14°C 16°C
07:00 17°C 14°C 18°C 16°C 18°C
08:00 19°C 14°C 23°C 17°C 19°C
09:00 20°C 15°C 25°C 19°C 22°C
10:00 21°C 18°C 31°C 19°C 22°C
11:00 22°C 18°C 31°C 20°C 24°C
12:00 23°C 18°C 32°C 20°C 25°C
13:00 23°C 19°C 33°C 21°C 25°C
14:00 23°C 19°C 33°C 21°C 25°C
15:00 23°C 19°C 32°C 20°C 25°C
16:00 23°C 19°C 28°C 20°C 25°C
17:00 22°C 18°C 28°C 19°C 24°C
18:00 21°C 18°C 25°C 19°C 23°C
19:00 19°C 17°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
20:00 18°C 16°C 22°C 18°C 19°C
21:00 19°C 16°C 21°C 17°C 19°C
22:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 18°C
23:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 33°C —
11-08 28°C —
11-07 19°C —
11-06 21°C —
11-05 22°C —
11-04 30°C —
11-03 25°C —
11-02 21°C —
11-01 21°C —
10-31 24°C —
10-30 25°C —
10-29 24°C —
10-28 23°C —
10-27 23°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by9.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office32.5°29.2°0.73°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS33.4°30.3°0.94°
Environment Canada GEM32.8°29.9°1.01°
DWD ICON31.9°27.8°1.08°
NOAA GFS32.4°28.1°1.25°
CMA GRAPES32.1°26.1°1.34°
JMA GSM24.2°22.0°2.31°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.73°-0.12°74%
ECMWF IFS0.94°-0.33°64%
Environment Canada GEM1.01°+0.88°68%
DWD ICON1.08°-0.02°58%
NOAA GFS1.25°+0.59°61%
CMA GRAPES1.34°-0.63°57%
JMA GSM2.31°-2.13°21%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max27°at 10/12Zmin 15°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z180° 12kt; 10km+; few at 1,200ft
temporarily30%09/21Z→09/24Zbroken at 800ft
becoming10/21Z→10/23Zvariable 3kt
TAF FACT 091600Z 0918/1024 18012KT 9999 FEW012 TX27/1012Z TN15/1004Z PROB30 TEMPO 0921/0924 BKN008 BECMG 1021/1023 VRB03KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤26°C0%74%50/68
27°C0%4%3/68
28°C0%6%4/68
29°C0%7%5/68
30°C0%3%2/68
31°C0%1%1/68
32°C0%1%1/68
33°C100%3%2/68
34°C0%0%0/68
35°C0%0%0/68
≥36°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
11°C
ZUUU 2100Z
today high so far
12°C
at 00:00
forecast peak16°DWD ICON
typical further climb+4.3°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:10
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°6°10°14°18°22°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 11°C
2°6°10°14°18°22°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 11°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZUUU, 8 obs
METAR ZUUU 092100Z 22001MPS CAVOK 11/07 Q1032 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 11° 7° 220/02 CAVOK —
04:00 11° 7° — CAVOK —
03:00 12° 7° — CAVOK —
02:00 12° 6° — CAVOK —
01:00 11° 7° — CAVOK —
00:00 12° 6° — CAVOK —
23:00 12° 4° 200/04 CAVOK —
22:00 13° 3° — CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 11°C at 05:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (16°C this hour) ZUUU, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~12°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (7°C→7°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (11°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥21°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥21°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 16°C, current 11°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 16.0°C usual 15.0°C–16.0°C
typical 15:00 20.0°C usual 19.0°C–21.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
24°C
14d high, 2026 10 29
avg high20.0°C
usual range19.0°C – 21.0°C
days ≥21°C5 / 14
days ≥22°C3 / 14
days ≥23°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 64% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 64% of 127 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~19°C (clim) vs ecmwf 16°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 05:00typically +4.3° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 15°peak already set on 7% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0015°+3.4°9%
0115°+3.6°7%
0215°+3.7°7%
0315°+3.9°7%
0415°+4.1°7%
0514°+4.3°7%
0614°+4.4°7%
0714°+4.5°7%
0814°+4.3°7%
0915°+3.7°7%
1016°+2.8°10%
1117°+2.0°15%
1217°+1.4°22%
1318°+0.7°52%
1418°+0.3°79%
1518°+0.1°94%
1618°+0.0°100%
1718°+0.0°100%
1817°+0.0°100%
1916°+0.0°100%
2016°+0.1°100%
2116°+0.1°100%
2216°+0.1°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearonly 17 days on record against a floor of 20, so it is not shown — too few to characterise
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.3°87d
scattered-0.6°161d
broken-2.4°49d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 2kt-0.8° across 30 days (-1.6 to +0.1) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.0°28d
VARIABLE+0.7°12d
W-0.5°10d
NW-0.7°15d
SW-0.8°30d
N-0.9°80d
NE-1.7°52d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
01:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
02:00 16°C 14°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
03:00 16°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
04:00 16°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
05:00 16°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
06:00 16°C 12°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
07:00 16°C 12°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
08:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
09:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
10:00 17°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
11:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 19°C
12:00 18°C 15°C 22°C 17°C 19°C
13:00 20°C 16°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
14:00 19°C 16°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
15:00 20°C 16°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
16:00 19°C 16°C 24°C 18°C 21°C
17:00 19°C 16°C 24°C 18°C 20°C
18:00 19°C 15°C 22°C 17°C 19°C
19:00 18°C 15°C 22°C 17°C 18°C
20:00 18°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 18°C
21:00 17°C 15°C 20°C 17°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
23:00 17°C 12°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 12°C —
11-09 18°C —
11-08 17°C —
11-07 19°C —
11-06 20°C —
11-05 21°C —
11-04 21°C —
11-03 17°C —
11-02 20°C —
11-01 20°C —
10-31 22°C —
10-30 23°C —
10-29 24°C —
10-28 20°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON15.8°15.7°1.21°most accurate here
UK Met Office15.9°15.6°1.34°
CMA GRAPES15.0°15.0°1.50°
Environment Canada GEM16.5°16.7°1.65°
ECMWF IFS16.3°16.1°1.91°
NOAA GFS16.0°16.5°2.29°
JMA GSM17.6°17.7°2.39°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON1.21°-0.51°51%
UK Met Office1.34°-0.60°47%
CMA GRAPES1.50°-1.25°37%
Environment Canada GEM1.65°-1.11°43%
ECMWF IFS1.91°-1.53°38%
NOAA GFS2.29°-2.01°22%
JMA GSM2.39°-1.91°29%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
forecast max18°at 10/07Zmin 10°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Z200° 3mps; 6000m; scattered at 5,000ft
TAF ZUUU 091501Z 0918/1018 20003MPS 6000 SCT050 TX18/1007Z TN10/0922Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤11°C0%1%1/68
12°C0%3%2/68
13°C0%1%1/68
14°C1%0%0/68
15°C11%3%2/68
16°C46%10%7/68
17°C35%12%8/68
18°C9%13%9/68
19°C2%22%15/68
20°C0%9%6/68
≥21°C0%25%17/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
60°F
KORD 2051Z
today high so far
60°F
at 14:51
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 14:51 local
usually warmestsunset 16:37
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
34°41°48°55°62°69°17:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:00ECMWF 57°FNOW 60°F
31°39°47°55°63°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 57°FNOW 60°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KORD, 8 obs
METAR KORD 092051Z 23008KT 10SM BKN300 16/04 A3004 RMK AO2 SLP174 T01560044 56019
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:51 60° 40° 230/08 BKN300 —
13:51 59° 39° 230/09 BKN250 —
12:51 59° 39° 210/08 BKN250 —
11:51 58° 37° 210/07 BKN250 —
10:51 56° 38° 200/04 SCT250 —
09:51 54° 40° 200/06 SCT250 —
08:51 49° 38° 240/03 SCT250 —
07:51 43° 38° 000/00 BKN250 —
current state
✓
METAR 60°F at 14:51 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (57°F–66°F) KORD, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 60°F climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.2°F/h, dewpoint rising (39°F→40°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (-0.0°F) ECMWF ens-mean 57°F
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 60.1°F usual 57.0°F–66.0°F
typical 13:00 61.0°F usual 55.9°F–68.0°F
noon → peak climb +1.8°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
76°F
14d high, 2026 10 28
avg high61.0°F
usual range55.9°F – 68.0°F
days ≥62°F6 / 14
days ≥63°F6 / 14
days ≥64°F6 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 73% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 73% of 121 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-1.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-3.2°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-4.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.8°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-5.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0059°F
implied peak61°F vs ecmwf 57°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
60° now at 15:00peak already set on 96% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0047°+9.6°10%
0146°+10.1°15%
0246°+10.6°15%
0345°+11.1°15%
0445°+11.4°15%
0545°+11.7°15%
0645°+11.7°15%
0746°+10.3°15%
0848°+8.1°15%
0950°+5.9°18%
1052°+4.0°19%
1154°+2.6°24%
1255°+1.3°45%
1355°+0.6°72%
1455°+0.3°94%
1554°+0.2°96%
1653°+0.1°96%
1752°+0.2°98%
1851°+0.2°99%
1950°+0.3°98%
2049°+0.4°99%
2148°+0.2°99%
2248°+0.0°100%
2347°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken-0.7° across 123 days (-2.2 to +0.9) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
few+2.6°81d
scattered-0.2°90d
broken-0.7°123d
overcast-3.0°83d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 8kt4.0° above normal across 81 days (+2.0 to +6.1).
coldernormalwarmer
S+5.9°66d
SW+4.0°81d
SE+3.3°21d
E-0.8°41d
NE-2.3°39d
W-5.2°49d
NW-5.9°45d
N-7.8°29d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 55°F 39°F 67°F 48°F 58°F
01:00 54°F 37°F 67°F 46°F 58°F
02:00 55°F 37°F 68°F 46°F 59°F
03:00 56°F 36°F 68°F 43°F 59°F
04:00 54°F 35°F 65°F 41°F 59°F
05:00 54°F 34°F 64°F 40°F 57°F
06:00 53°F 34°F 64°F 40°F 56°F
07:00 53°F 34°F 64°F 40°F 56°F
08:00 55°F 37°F 66°F 43°F 57°F
09:00 56°F 38°F 67°F 49°F 59°F
10:00 57°F 39°F 68°F 50°F 62°F
11:00 58°F 41°F 69°F 53°F 60°F
12:00 59°F 44°F 72°F 56°F 62°F
13:00 60°F 46°F 73°F 57°F 65°F
14:00 60°F 47°F 74°F 57°F 66°F
15:00 61°F 47°F 74°F 56°F 68°F
16:00 60°F 47°F 76°F 55°F 68°F
17:00 60°F 46°F 75°F 54°F 67°F
18:00 58°F 44°F 72°F 53°F 65°F
19:00 57°F 43°F 69°F 53°F 65°F
20:00 57°F 43°F 69°F 52°F 60°F
21:00 56°F 41°F 68°F 51°F 60°F
22:00 56°F 40°F 68°F 50°F 60°F
23:00 56°F 39°F 68°F 48°F 59°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 54°F —
11-08 61°F —
11-07 51°F —
11-06 47°F —
11-05 52°F —
11-04 67°F —
11-03 71°F —
11-02 61°F —
11-01 64°F —
10-31 61°F —
10-30 58°F —
10-29 69°F —
10-28 76°F —
10-27 68°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON58.1°62.1°1.38°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS56.5°59.5°1.47°
NOAA GFS60.3°62.4°1.64°
Environment Canada GEM58.5°61.7°1.89°
JMA GSM58.6°60.8°2.05°
UK Met Office55.2°57.7°2.11°
CMA GRAPES56.1°57.2°2.27°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON1.38°+0.47°76%
ECMWF IFS1.47°-0.10°75%
NOAA GFS1.64°+1.08°72%
Environment Canada GEM1.89°+1.48°59%
JMA GSM2.05°-0.12°55%
UK Met Office2.11°+1.15°61%
CMA GRAPES2.27°-0.42°50%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z230° 8kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 25,000ft
from10/08Z onwards300° 7kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from10/14Z onwards340° 7kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
TAF KORD 092059Z 0921/1024 23008KT P6SM BKN250 FM100800 30007KT P6SM FEW250 FM101400 34007KT P6SM FEW250
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤49°F0%19%13/68
50-51°F0%4%3/68
52-53°F0%7%5/68
54-55°F0%12%8/68
56-57°F0%4%3/68
58-59°F0%12%8/68
60-61°F98%12%8/68
62-63°F2%6%4/68
64-65°F0%3%2/68
66-67°F0%6%4/68
≥68°F0%15%10/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Chongqing

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
13°C
ZUCK 2100Z
today high so far
13°C
at 00:00
forecast peak15°DWD ICON
typical further climb+3.6°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:01
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
9°11°13°15°17°19°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 13°C
9°11°13°15°17°19°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 16°CNOW 13°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZUCK, 8 obs
METAR ZUCK 092100Z 16001MPS 9999 SCT018 13/11 Q1033 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 13° 11° 160/02 SCT018 —
04:00 13° 11° 130/02 CAVOK —
03:00 13° 11° 270/04 CAVOK —
02:00 12° 11° — CAVOK —
01:00 12° 11° 160/04 CAVOK —
00:00 13° 11° 150/04 CAVOK —
23:00 13° 11° 170/04 CAVOK —
22:00 13° 11° 160/04 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 13°C at 05:00 local, -3.0°C vs 14d-median (16°C this hour) ZUCK, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~14°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (11°C→11°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (13°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥19°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥19°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 16°C, current 13°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 16.0°C usual 15.0°C–17.0°C
typical 15:00 18.0°C usual 17.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
21°C
14d high, 2026 11 06
avg high18.0°C
usual range17.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥19°C4 / 14
days ≥20°C2 / 14
days ≥21°C1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 69% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 69% of 117 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~18°C (clim) vs ecmwf 16°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
13° now at 05:00typically +3.6° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 17°peak already set on 15% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0016°+2.8°16%
0116°+3.1°15%
0216°+3.2°15%
0315°+3.3°15%
0415°+3.5°15%
0515°+3.6°15%
0615°+3.6°15%
0715°+3.5°15%
0815°+3.4°15%
0916°+2.9°16%
1016°+2.3°19%
1117°+1.6°27%
1217°+1.2°33%
1318°+0.7°43%
1418°+0.4°70%
1518°+0.1°94%
1618°+0.1°100%
1718°+0.0°100%
1817°+0.1°100%
1917°+0.1°100%
2016°+0.1°100%
2116°+0.1°100%
2216°+0.0°100%
2316°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowscattered+0.1° across 51 days (-0.8 to +1.1) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear+2.4°40d
few+0.7°51d
scattered+0.1°51d
broken-2.4°46d
overcast-3.6°95d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowS at 2kt+0.1° across 35 days (-1.5 to +1.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SE+3.5°55d
E+1.2°35d
SW+0.4°13d
S+0.1°35d
VARIABLE-0.2°38d
N-1.8°27d
W-1.9°30d
NE-1.9°52d
NW-2.3°24d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
01:00 16°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
02:00 16°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
03:00 16°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
04:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
05:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
06:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
07:00 15°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
08:00 16°C 12°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
09:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
10:00 17°C 14°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
11:00 17°C 15°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
12:00 17°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
13:00 17°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
14:00 17°C 15°C 21°C 16°C 19°C
15:00 17°C 16°C 21°C 16°C 19°C
16:00 17°C 15°C 21°C 16°C 18°C
17:00 17°C 15°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
18:00 16°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
19:00 16°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
20:00 16°C 14°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
21:00 17°C 14°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
22:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
23:00 16°C 13°C 18°C 16°C 17°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 13°C —
11-09 17°C —
11-08 17°C —
11-07 19°C —
11-06 21°C —
11-05 17°C —
11-04 19°C —
11-03 16°C —
11-02 17°C —
11-01 18°C —
10-31 18°C —
10-30 20°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 16°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON14.8°15.7°1.03°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM14.6°15.7°1.35°
CMA GRAPES14.9°15.3°1.41°
ECMWF IFS15.3°18.1°2.00°
UK Met Office15.4°17.0°2.16°
NOAA GFS15.1°15.2°2.26°
JMA GSM17.4°19.6°2.41°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON1.03°-0.89°61%
Environment Canada GEM1.35°-1.06°51%
CMA GRAPES1.41°-1.14°37%
ECMWF IFS2.00°-1.87°16%
UK Met Office2.16°-2.05°16%
NOAA GFS2.26°-2.13°18%
JMA GSM2.41°-2.22°22%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
forecast max18°at 10/07Zmin 12°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Z160° 3mps; 6000m; scattered at 5,000ft
TAF ZUCK 091501Z 0918/1018 16003MPS 6000 SCT050 TX18/1007Z TN12/0922Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤9°C0%0%0/68
10°C0%0%0/68
11°C0%1%1/68
12°C0%0%0/68
13°C3%6%4/68
14°C14%1%1/68
15°C46%1%1/68
16°C36%9%6/68
17°C9%21%14/68
18°C4%10%7/68
≥19°C0%50%34/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 112% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
70°F
KDAL 2053Z
today high so far
70°F
at 13:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 14:53 local
usually warmestsunset 17:30
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
50°56°62°68°74°80°17:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:00ECMWF 71°FNOW 70°F
50°56°62°68°74°80°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 71°FNOW 70°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KDAL, 8 obs
METAR KDAL 092053Z 20003KT 10SM SCT034 BKN100 21/13 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP212 T02110133 56015
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:53 70° 56° 200/03 BKN100 —
13:53 70° 56° 320/03 OVC220 —
12:53 69° 56° 000/00 BKN150 —
11:53 69° 56° — OVC250 —
10:53 66° 56° — OVC250 —
09:53 64° 57° 190/05 OVC250 —
08:53 62° 56° 000/00 BKN250 —
07:53 58° 55° 000/00 BKN250 —
current state
▼
METAR 70°F at 14:53 local, -7.0°F vs 14d-median (77°F this hour) KDAL, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +5.6°F (n=14) — projects to ~76°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°F/h, dewpoint rising (56°F→56°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (70°F @ 14:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥79°F possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥79°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 71°F, current 70°F @ 14:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 77.0°F usual 72.0°F–79.0°F
typical 15:00 78.1°F usual 73.9°F–81.0°F
noon → peak climb +5.6°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
84°F
14d high, 2026 11 02
avg high78.1°F
usual range73.9°F – 81.0°F
days ≥79°F4 / 14
days ≥80°F4 / 14
days ≥81°F3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 78% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 78% of 128 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+1.0°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+1.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+1.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-1.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-6.0°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0069°F
implied peak75°F vs ecmwf 71°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
70° now at 15:00peak already set on 88% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0060°+12.5°6%
0159°+13.3°6%
0258°+14.2°6%
0357°+14.7°6%
0457°+15.0°6%
0557°+15.4°6%
0656°+15.6°6%
0758°+14.3°6%
0860°+11.7°6%
0963°+8.8°7%
1066°+6.1°7%
1168°+4.0°7%
1269°+2.5°16%
1370°+1.3°40%
1471°+0.6°72%
1571°+0.2°88%
1670°+0.1°96%
1768°+0.1°99%
1866°+0.1°99%
1965°+0.1°99%
2063°+0.1°99%
2162°+0.0°99%
2261°+0.1°99%
2360°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken-0.5° across 80 days (-2.0 to +1.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear-2.7°35d
few+1.8°154d
scattered+1.6°73d
broken-0.5°80d
overcast-6.2°46d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowS at 3kt3.2° above normal across 108 days (+2.2 to +4.3).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+6.3°23d
VARIABLE+3.7°10d
S+3.2°108d
CALM+0.8°22d
SE-0.3°69d
NW-2.8°33d
E-3.5°33d
NE-3.8°21d
N-7.6°43d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 69°F 54°F 78°F 61°F 71°F
01:00 69°F 54°F 76°F 61°F 70°F
02:00 68°F 54°F 74°F 59°F 69°F
03:00 67°F 53°F 72°F 58°F 69°F
04:00 66°F 52°F 71°F 58°F 68°F
05:00 66°F 51°F 70°F 57°F 68°F
06:00 65°F 51°F 70°F 57°F 67°F
07:00 64°F 52°F 69°F 56°F 67°F
08:00 64°F 52°F 69°F 58°F 67°F
09:00 66°F 57°F 72°F 62°F 69°F
10:00 67°F 60°F 76°F 64°F 69°F
11:00 70°F 62°F 79°F 66°F 74°F
12:00 73°F 65°F 81°F 69°F 76°F
13:00 76°F 67°F 83°F 71°F 78°F
14:00 77°F 68°F 84°F 72°F 79°F
15:00 77°F 69°F 83°F 73°F 80°F
16:00 77°F 67°F 82°F 74°F 81°F
17:00 77°F 67°F 82°F 71°F 79°F
18:00 76°F 66°F 81°F 69°F 77°F
19:00 75°F 65°F 79°F 67°F 76°F
20:00 74°F 63°F 78°F 65°F 76°F
21:00 73°F 61°F 78°F 63°F 74°F
22:00 71°F 58°F 78°F 63°F 72°F
23:00 70°F 56°F 78°F 62°F 71°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 64°F —
11-08 70°F —
11-07 69°F —
11-06 74°F —
11-05 81°F —
11-04 76°F —
11-03 76°F —
11-02 84°F —
11-01 78°F —
10-31 77°F —
10-30 74°F —
10-29 78°F —
10-28 83°F —
10-27 82°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
Environment Canada GEM70.7°75.7°1.25°most accurate here
DWD ICON70.7°71.1°1.31°
CMA GRAPES68.9°71.8°1.39°
ECMWF IFS70.7°74.5°1.63°
UK Met Office68.2°74.7°1.75°
NOAA GFS71.2°76.1°1.84°
JMA GSM69.8°72.0°2.26°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
Environment Canada GEM1.25°-0.52°78%
DWD ICON1.31°+0.26°82%
CMA GRAPES1.39°-0.47°70%
ECMWF IFS1.63°-0.13°68%
UK Met Office1.75°+0.81°58%
NOAA GFS1.84°+1.44°58%
JMA GSM2.26°-1.26°57%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/18Z
base09/21Z→10/18Z180° 6kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 6,000ft; broken at 15,000ft
from10/06Z onwards200° 6kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; few at 1,000ft; broken at 5,000ft
from10/15Z onwards220° 6kt; >6 statute miles; few at 2,500ft; broken at 6,000ft
TAF KDAL 092050Z 0921/1018 18006KT P6SM SCT060 BKN150 FM100600 20006KT P6SM VCSH FEW010 BKN050 FM101500 22006KT P6SM FEW025 BKN060
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤61°F0%12%8/68
62-63°F0%4%3/68
64-65°F0%6%4/68
66-67°F0%0%0/68
68-69°F0%4%3/68
70-71°F96%13%9/68
72-73°F2%10%7/68
74-75°F0%6%4/68
76-77°F0%12%8/68
78-79°F0%6%4/68
≥80°F0%26%18/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
71°F
KDEN 2053Z
today high so far
71°F
at 13:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.4°
observed 13:53 local
usually warmestsunset 16:48
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
18°29°40°51°62°16:0019:0022:0001:0004:0007:0010:0013:00ECMWF 68°FNOW 71°F
18°29°40°51°62°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 68°FNOW 71°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KDEN, 8 obs
METAR KDEN 092053Z 12013KT 10SM FEW160 FEW220 22/M07 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP156 T02171067 56020
local temp dew wind cloud wx
13:53 71° 20° 120/13 FEW160 —
12:53 70° 21° 120/09 FEW160 —
11:53 67° 22° 100/06 FEW160 —
10:53 66° 19° 020/04 FEW160 —
09:53 62° 20° 220/04 FEW150 —
08:53 58° 20° 230/10 FEW150 —
07:53 52° 19° 230/08 FEW150 —
06:53 47° 19° 220/10 FEW200 —
current state
▲
METAR 71°F at 13:53 local, +14.8°F vs 14d-median (56°F this hour) KDEN, running ahead of climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +7.7°F (n=13) — projects to ~79°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°F/h, dewpoint rising (21°F→20°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (71°F @ 13:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥60°F possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥60°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +14.8°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 68°F, current 71°F @ 13:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 56.3°F usual 53.2°F–63.3°F
typical 14:00 59.4°F usual 56.1°F–67.3°F
noon → peak climb +7.7°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
68°F
14d high, 2026 11 08
avg high59.4°F
usual range56.1°F – 67.3°F
days ≥60°F7 / 14
days ≥61°F7 / 14
days ≥62°F7 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 71% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 71% of 132 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-1.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-5.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-9.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-12.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-13.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-14.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0070°F
implied peak78°F vs ecmwf 68°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
71° now at 14:00peak already set on 90% of days by nowtypically only +0.4° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0039°+18.4°1%
0138°+19.2°1%
0238°+19.4°3%
0338°+19.7°3%
0437°+19.9°3%
0537°+20.7°3%
0637°+20.4°3%
0741°+16.7°3%
0846°+11.8°4%
0949°+8.1°4%
1052°+5.3°10%
1154°+3.0°21%
1255°+1.7°36%
1356°+0.9°63%
1456°+0.4°90%
1554°+0.2°94%
1650°+0.3°96%
1746°+0.6°97%
1843°+1.1°99%
1942°+1.2°99%
2041°+1.3°99%
2139°+1.7°100%
2240°+0.7°100%
2339°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew2.0° above normal across 152 days (+0.7 to +3.3).
coldernormalwarmer
few+2.0°152d
scattered+2.3°108d
broken-0.7°130d
overcast-17.0°31d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSE at 13kt-0.4° across 45 days (-3.2 to +2.4) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
W+5.1°35d
SW+5.0°39d
S+4.1°39d
VARIABLE+3.1°59d
CALM-0.3°17d
SE-0.4°45d
NW-2.9°36d
E-3.3°43d
NE-3.8°53d
N-6.0°55d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 44°F 39°F 55°F 43°F 46°F
01:00 44°F 39°F 55°F 40°F 47°F
02:00 44°F 39°F 55°F 39°F 47°F
03:00 44°F 35°F 55°F 39°F 47°F
04:00 43°F 36°F 55°F 40°F 44°F
05:00 42°F 35°F 55°F 37°F 44°F
06:00 42°F 32°F 55°F 37°F 44°F
07:00 41°F 30°F 55°F 36°F 45°F
08:00 42°F 31°F 55°F 37°F 47°F
09:00 44°F 36°F 58°F 42°F 48°F
10:00 49°F 39°F 62°F 42°F 55°F
11:00 49°F 41°F 58°F 44°F 55°F
12:00 52°F 45°F 60°F 50°F 57°F
13:00 56°F 48°F 67°F 53°F 63°F
14:00 58°F 49°F 67°F 55°F 63°F
15:00 58°F 50°F 70°F 55°F 66°F
16:00 59°F 50°F 69°F 57°F 66°F
17:00 59°F 49°F 69°F 56°F 63°F
18:00 56°F 46°F 65°F 52°F 59°F
19:00 54°F 45°F 58°F 48°F 56°F
20:00 50°F 45°F 56°F 47°F 53°F
21:00 49°F 41°F 56°F 45°F 50°F
22:00 45°F 41°F 55°F 44°F 48°F
23:00 44°F 39°F 55°F 43°F 47°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 58°F —
11-08 68°F —
11-07 64°F —
11-06 60°F —
11-05 58°F —
11-04 55°F —
11-03 55°F —
11-02 51°F —
11-01 66°F —
10-31 58°F —
10-30 63°F —
10-29 65°F —
10-28 66°F —
10-27 63°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by8.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS68.7°66.2°1.64°most accurate here
UK Met Office69.3°66.4°1.75°
ECMWF IFS68.9°68.4°1.88°
DWD ICON69.4°66.0°2.23°
Environment Canada GEM67.5°66.9°2.48°
CMA GRAPES62.4°59.9°3.08°
JMA GSM60.6°61.5°4.74°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS1.64°+0.25°79%
UK Met Office1.75°+0.36°67%
ECMWF IFS1.88°-0.56°66%
DWD ICON2.23°-0.47°53%
Environment Canada GEM2.48°-1.15°42%
CMA GRAPES3.08°-1.71°26%
JMA GSM4.74°-3.32°13%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z100° 13kt; >6 statute miles; few at 22,000ft
from10/02Z onwards140° 8kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 22,000ft
from10/05Z onwards180° 9kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 22,000ft
from10/09Z onwards230° 9kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 22,000ft
from10/17Z onwardsvariable 6kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 22,000ft
TAF KDEN 092051Z 0921/1024 10013KT P6SM FEW220 FM100200 14008KT P6SM SCT220 FM100500 18009KT P6SM SCT220 FM100900 23009KT P6SM SCT220 FM101700 VRB06KT P6SM SCT220
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤59°F0%53%36/68
60-61°F0%4%3/68
62-63°F0%4%3/68
64-65°F0%4%3/68
66-67°F0%4%3/68
68-69°F0%9%6/68
70-71°F94%4%3/68
72-73°F6%7%5/68
74-75°F1%3%2/68
76-77°F0%4%3/68
≥78°F0%1%1/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.

Guangzhou

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
14°C
ZGGG 2100Z
today high so far
16°C
at 00:00
forecast peak18°CMA GRAPES
typical further climb+6.3°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:44
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
4°10°16°22°28°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 14°C
4°10°16°22°28°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 14°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZGGG, 8 obs
METAR ZGGG 092100Z 01007MPS CAVOK 14/05 Q1027 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 14° 5° 010/14 CAVOK —
04:30 14° 5° 010/14 CAVOK —
04:00 15° 6° 010/16 CAVOK —
03:30 15° 6° 010/14 CAVOK —
03:00 15° 6° 010/16 CAVOK —
02:30 15° 7° 010/17 CAVOK —
02:00 16° 7° 010/16 CAVOK —
01:30 16° 7° 010/12 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 14°C at 05:00 local, -10.0°C vs 14d-median (24°C this hour) ZGGG, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~15°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint falling (5°C→5°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (14°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥32°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥32°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -10.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 20°C, current 14°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 24.0°C usual 23.0°C–24.0°C
typical 14:00 31.0°C usual 30.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
33°C
14d high, 2026 11 08
avg high31.0°C
usual range30.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥32°C5 / 14
days ≥33°C4 / 14
days ≥34°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 73% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 73% of 131 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~31°C (clim) vs ecmwf 20°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
14° now at 05:00typically +6.3° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 20°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0022°+5.2°3%
0122°+5.6°3%
0222°+5.8°3%
0321°+6.0°3%
0421°+6.2°3%
0521°+6.3°3%
0621°+6.5°3%
0721°+6.2°3%
0822°+5.4°3%
0923°+4.2°4%
1024°+3.0°9%
1125°+2.1°16%
1226°+1.3°36%
1327°+0.8°60%
1427°+0.4°87%
1527°+0.2°100%
1626°+0.2°100%
1725°+0.3°100%
1824°+0.2°100%
1924°+0.1°100%
2024°+0.1°100%
2123°+0.1°100%
2223°+0.2°100%
2322°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.4°27d
scattered+1.4°107d
broken-0.7°96d
overcast-4.4°37d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 14kt1.7° below normal across 146 days (-2.2 to -1.2).
coldernormalwarmer
SE+2.0°10d
VARIABLE+1.8°10d
E+0.9°72d
NE-0.1°77d
N-1.7°146d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 25°C 16°C 27°C 24°C 26°C
01:00 25°C 16°C 27°C 24°C 25°C
02:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
03:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
04:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
05:00 24°C 21°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
06:00 24°C 21°C 25°C 23°C 24°C
07:00 24°C 21°C 25°C 23°C 24°C
08:00 24°C 21°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
09:00 26°C 21°C 28°C 25°C 27°C
10:00 28°C 24°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
11:00 29°C 24°C 31°C 27°C 30°C
12:00 30°C 24°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
13:00 30°C 24°C 33°C 29°C 32°C
14:00 30°C 23°C 33°C 29°C 32°C
15:00 31°C 23°C 33°C 29°C 32°C
16:00 30°C 22°C 32°C 27°C 31°C
17:00 30°C 21°C 31°C 27°C 31°C
18:00 28°C 19°C 30°C 27°C 30°C
19:00 27°C 19°C 30°C 26°C 28°C
20:00 27°C 18°C 30°C 26°C 28°C
21:00 27°C 18°C 29°C 26°C 27°C
22:00 26°C 17°C 29°C 25°C 26°C
23:00 25°C 17°C 28°C 25°C 26°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 16°C —
11-09 24°C —
11-08 33°C —
11-07 30°C —
11-06 31°C —
11-05 30°C —
11-04 30°C —
11-03 30°C —
11-02 31°C —
11-01 33°C —
10-31 33°C —
10-30 33°C —
10-29 30°C —
10-28 32°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
CMA GRAPES18.5°20.1°0.99°most accurate here
NOAA GFS21.6°23.5°1.26°
Environment Canada GEM20.3°23.3°1.45°
DWD ICON20.4°22.3°1.60°
ECMWF IFS20.1°22.6°1.70°
UK Met Office20.4°22.5°1.81°
JMA GSM21.2°23.8°2.67°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
CMA GRAPES0.99°-0.30°55%
NOAA GFS1.26°-0.85°54%
Environment Canada GEM1.45°-1.22°39%
DWD ICON1.60°-1.58°29%
ECMWF IFS1.70°-1.63°37%
UK Met Office1.81°-1.66°30%
JMA GSM2.67°-2.61°11%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max22°at 10/07Zmin 13°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z010° 6mps; 8000m; few at 4,000ft
TAF ZGGG 091503Z 0918/1024 01006MPS 8000 FEW040 TX22/1007Z TN13/0922Z TN13/1022Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤15°C0%0%0/68
16°C0%1%1/68
17°C0%0%0/68
18°C0%0%0/68
19°C1%1%1/68
20°C2%4%3/68
21°C22%1%1/68
22°C57%9%6/68
23°C20%3%2/68
24°C3%3%2/68
≥25°C0%76%52/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 106% and climatology to 100%.

Helsinki

23:20 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
5°C
EFHK 2120Z
today high so far
5°C
at 08:20
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 23:20 local
usually warmestsunset 16:03
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-1°1°3°5°7°9°01:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:00ECMWF 5°CNOW 5°C
-1°1°3°5°7°9°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 5°CNOW 5°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR EFHK, 8 obs
METAR EFHK 092120Z 24007KT 9999 BKN024 05/01 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
23:20 5° 1° 240/07 BKN024 —
22:50 5° 1° 240/07 BKN024 —
22:20 5° 1° 240/07 BKN024 —
21:50 5° 1° 240/08 BKN024 —
21:20 4° 1° 240/09 BKN023 —
20:50 4° 1° 240/07 BKN022 —
20:20 4° 1° 230/06 BKN022 —
19:50 4° 1° 240/07 BKN022 —
current state
✓
METAR 5°C at 23:20 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (4°C–8°C) EFHK, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 5°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (1°C→1°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current 5°C @ 23:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 6.0°C usual 4.0°C–8.0°C
typical 14:00 8.0°C usual 6.0°C–9.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
11°C
14d high, 2026 10 28
avg high8.0°C
usual range6.0°C – 9.0°C
days ≥9°C6 / 14
days ≥10°C3 / 14
days ≥11°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–14:00
where the high landed on 59% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 14:00 local on 59% of 73 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 18:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 19:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 5°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
5° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
005°+2.0°37%
014°+2.0°40%
024°+2.1°41%
034°+2.1°41%
044°+2.1°43%
054°+2.1°43%
064°+2.1°44%
074°+2.0°44%
084°+2.0°46%
095°+1.7°49%
105°+1.2°59%
115°+0.8°65%
126°+0.6°71%
136°+0.4°79%
146°+0.3°85%
156°+0.3°88%
165°+0.4°90%
175°+0.3°93%
185°+0.4°93%
195°+0.4°96%
205°+0.3°96%
214°+0.2°99%
224°+0.2°100%
234°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken-0.2° across 195 days (-0.7 to +0.3) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.3°54d
scattered-0.3°96d
broken-0.2°195d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 7kt1.9° above normal across 70 days (+1.4 to +2.4).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+1.9°70d
S+1.9°59d
SE+0.7°56d
W+0.1°49d
E-0.3°26d
NW-1.5°37d
NE-3.1°34d
N-3.8°33d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 6°C -1°C 11°C 3°C 8°C
01:00 6°C 0°C 11°C 3°C 9°C
02:00 6°C 0°C 11°C 3°C 8°C
03:00 6°C 0°C 10°C 2°C 8°C
04:00 6°C 0°C 10°C 2°C 8°C
05:00 6°C 0°C 10°C 2°C 8°C
06:00 5°C -1°C 10°C 2°C 8°C
07:00 5°C -1°C 10°C 3°C 8°C
08:00 5°C -1°C 10°C 4°C 8°C
09:00 5°C 0°C 10°C 4°C 8°C
10:00 6°C 1°C 10°C 5°C 8°C
11:00 7°C 2°C 10°C 4°C 9°C
12:00 7°C 3°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
13:00 7°C 4°C 11°C 6°C 9°C
14:00 8°C 4°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
15:00 8°C 4°C 11°C 6°C 9°C
16:00 7°C 3°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
17:00 7°C 2°C 11°C 5°C 8°C
18:00 7°C 0°C 11°C 4°C 8°C
19:00 7°C 0°C 11°C 4°C 8°C
20:00 7°C 0°C 11°C 4°C 7°C
21:00 6°C -1°C 11°C 5°C 7°C
22:00 6°C -1°C 11°C 5°C 8°C
23:00 6°C -1°C 11°C 4°C 8°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 5°C —
11-08 6°C —
11-07 6°C —
11-06 5°C —
11-05 8°C —
11-04 7°C —
11-03 7°C —
11-02 9°C —
11-01 9°C —
10-31 8°C —
10-30 9°C —
10-29 10°C —
10-28 11°C —
10-27 11°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
Environment Canada GEM4.5°5.0°0.59°most accurate here
UK Met Office4.1°4.7°0.69°
DWD ICON4.9°5.3°0.72°
CMA GRAPES3.2°4.2°0.77°
NOAA GFS5.4°5.9°0.81°
JMA GSM4.0°5.7°0.81°
ECMWF IFS4.9°5.8°0.96°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
Environment Canada GEM0.59°-0.16°84%
UK Met Office0.69°-0.09°83%
DWD ICON0.72°-0.45°82%
CMA GRAPES0.77°+0.22°79%
NOAA GFS0.81°+0.23°74%
JMA GSM0.81°-0.28°75%
ECMWF IFS0.96°-0.69°57%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/21Z
base09/21Z→10/21Z240° 9kt; 10km+; broken at 2,500ft
temporarily10/19Z→10/21Zbroken at 1,200ft
TAF EFHK 092022Z 0921/1021 24009KT 9999 BKN025 TEMPO 1019/1021 BKN012
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤0°C0%6%4/68
1°C0%3%2/68
2°C0%7%5/68
3°C0%3%2/68
4°C0%3%2/68
5°C99%6%4/68
6°C1%15%10/68
7°C0%18%12/68
8°C0%9%6/68
9°C0%15%10/68
≥10°C0%16%11/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
58°F
KHOU 2053Z
today high so far
64°F
at 08:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
observed 14:53 local
usually warmestsunset 17:29
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
49°56°63°70°77°17:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:00ECMWF 68°FNOW 58°F
49°56°63°70°77°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 68°FNOW 58°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KHOU, 8 obs
METAR KHOU 092053Z 07007KT 10SM -RA FEW060 OVC110 14/12 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP201 P0005 60023 T01440122 58035
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:53 58° 54° 070/07 OVC110 -RA
13:53 58° 55° 090/11 OVC110 -RA
12:53 59° 53° 120/05 OVC110 RA
11:53 61° 55° 000/00 OVC110 -RA
10:53 61° 54° 120/04 OVC110 -RA
09:53 64° 50° 080/05 OVC250 -RA
08:53 64° 52° 040/05 BKN120 —
07:53 63° 52° 060/05 BKN250 —
current state
▼
METAR 58°F at 14:53 local, -23.1°F vs 14d-median (81°F this hour) KHOU, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 64°F climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.4°F/h, dewpoint falling (55°F→54°F) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -23.1°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 68°F, current 58°F @ 14:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 81.0°F usual 77.0°F–82.0°F
typical 14:00 82.0°F usual 79.0°F–84.9°F
noon → peak climb +2.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
87°F
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high82.0°F
usual range79.0°F – 84.9°F
days ≥83°F4 / 14
days ≥84°F4 / 14
days ≥85°F3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 59% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 59% of 131 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-1.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-4.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-6.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-7.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-8.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0059°F
implied peak61°F vs ecmwf 68°F
heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
58° now at 15:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0065°+13.0°4%
0164°+13.6°4%
0263°+14.2°4%
0363°+14.7°4%
0463°+14.9°4%
0563°+14.8°4%
0663°+14.7°4%
0765°+12.1°4%
0868°+9.3°6%
0971°+6.4°6%
1073°+4.4°7%
1175°+2.8°15%
1276°+1.7°30%
1377°+0.5°61%
1477°+0.2°91%
1576°+0.0°100%
1674°+0.0°100%
1771°+0.1°100%
1870°+0.1°100%
1968°+0.2°100%
2068°+0.1°100%
2167°+0.1°100%
2266°+0.0°100%
2365°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast4.9° below normal across 50 days (-7.3 to -2.5).
coldernormalwarmer
clear-1.2°44d
few+0.3°61d
scattered+2.3°141d
broken-0.4°92d
overcast-4.9°50d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 7kt1.7° below normal across 85 days (-2.6 to -0.7).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+6.2°20d
W+5.3°14d
S+4.3°54d
SE+2.6°60d
VARIABLE-0.6°19d
E-1.7°85d
NW-1.9°15d
NE-3.2°59d
N-4.0°48d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 70°F 63°F 76°F 67°F 72°F
01:00 70°F 61°F 75°F 65°F 71°F
02:00 68°F 60°F 75°F 65°F 72°F
03:00 68°F 60°F 74°F 65°F 71°F
04:00 68°F 60°F 74°F 63°F 70°F
05:00 69°F 60°F 73°F 64°F 71°F
06:00 70°F 60°F 73°F 64°F 72°F
07:00 69°F 59°F 73°F 63°F 72°F
08:00 69°F 63°F 75°F 67°F 73°F
09:00 72°F 63°F 78°F 70°F 73°F
10:00 75°F 64°F 83°F 71°F 76°F
11:00 78°F 61°F 86°F 73°F 79°F
12:00 79°F 66°F 87°F 77°F 82°F
13:00 80°F 66°F 86°F 78°F 82°F
14:00 81°F 65°F 85°F 77°F 82°F
15:00 81°F 64°F 86°F 78°F 82°F
16:00 80°F 64°F 85°F 77°F 82°F
17:00 78°F 64°F 85°F 75°F 80°F
18:00 77°F 64°F 83°F 73°F 78°F
19:00 74°F 64°F 80°F 71°F 75°F
20:00 72°F 63°F 79°F 70°F 73°F
21:00 72°F 63°F 76°F 69°F 73°F
22:00 71°F 63°F 76°F 69°F 73°F
23:00 70°F 63°F 76°F 68°F 73°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 64°F —
11-08 70°F —
11-07 80°F —
11-06 82°F —
11-05 82°F —
11-04 79°F —
11-03 87°F —
11-02 86°F —
11-01 86°F —
10-31 85°F —
10-30 79°F —
10-29 82°F —
10-28 82°F —
10-27 75°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by9.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
Environment Canada GEM70.9°75.7°1.48°most accurate here
NOAA GFS66.4°72.3°1.50°
DWD ICON61.7°69.4°1.57°
UK Met Office66.7°75.7°2.00°
ECMWF IFS64.4°73.4°2.07°
CMA GRAPES64.8°71.1°2.09°
JMA GSM66.4°71.2°3.58°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
Environment Canada GEM1.48°+0.60°78%
NOAA GFS1.50°+1.07°67%
DWD ICON1.57°+0.54°66%
UK Met Office2.00°+1.43°53%
ECMWF IFS2.07°-1.04°50%
CMA GRAPES2.09°+1.31°53%
JMA GSM3.58°-3.33°17%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/18Z
base09/21Z→10/18Z080° 9kt; >6 statute miles; light showers rain; scattered at 1,500ft; overcast at 7,000ft
temporarily09/21Z→09/23Z4 statute miles; showers rain; broken at 1,500ft
from09/23Z onwardsvariable 5kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 1,500ft; overcast at 10,000ft
from10/03Z onwardsvariable 3kt; 6 statute miles; mist; scattered at 1,500ft; overcast at 7,000ft
from10/07Z onwardsvariable 2kt; 5 statute miles; mist; broken at 1,500ft; overcast at 5,000ft
from10/13Z onwardsvariable 5kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; overcast at 5,000ft
TAF KHOU 092100Z 0921/1018 08009KT P6SM -SHRA SCT015 OVC070 TEMPO 0921/0923 4SM SHRA BKN015 FM092300 VRB05KT P6SM SCT015 OVC100 FM100300 VRB03KT 6SM BR SCT015 OVC070 FM100700 VRB02KT 5SM BR BKN015 OVC050 FM101300 VRB05KT P6SM SCT025 OVC050
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤61°F0%9%6/68
62-63°F0%3%2/68
64-65°F98%3%2/68
66-67°F2%3%2/68
68-69°F0%0%0/68
70-71°F0%4%3/68
72-73°F0%1%1/68
74-75°F0%9%6/68
76-77°F0%4%3/68
78-79°F0%1%1/68
≥80°F0%62%42/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Istanbul

00:20 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
10°C
LTFM 2120Z
today high so far
10°C
at 00:20
forecast peak13°DWD ICON
typical further climb+3.4°
observed 00:20 local
usually warmestsunset 17:51
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
0°4°8°12°16°02:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:00ECMWF 13°CNOW 10°C
0°4°8°12°16°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 13°CNOW 10°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LTFM, 8 obs
METAR LTFM 092120Z 20006KT 170V240 9999 FEW035 BKN090 10/05 Q1025 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
00:20 10° 5° 200/06 BKN090 —
23:50 10° 5° 210/06 BKN090 —
23:20 10° 4° 220/04 BKN090 —
22:50 10° 5° 230/03 BKN090 —
22:20 9° 6° 180/03 NSC -SHRA
21:50 9° 5° 230/05 NSC -SHRA
21:20 10° 5° 200/06 CAVOK —
20:50 9° 4° 180/05 CAVOK —
current state
✓
METAR 10°C at 00:20 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (10°C–16°C) LTFM, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~10°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (5°C→5°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (10°C @ 00:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥16°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥16°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -4.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 13°C, current 10°C @ 00:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 14.0°C usual 10.0°C–16.0°C
typical 14:00 15.0°C usual 12.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
21°C
14d high, 2026 11 02
avg high15.0°C
usual range12.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥16°C5 / 14
days ≥17°C4 / 14
days ≥18°C1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 67% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 67% of 119 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 20:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:20)
implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 13°C
heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
10° now at 00:00typically +3.4° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 13°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0014°+3.4°12%
0113°+3.6°13%
0213°+3.4°16%
0313°+3.8°16%
0413°+3.9°16%
0513°+3.8°16%
0613°+3.9°16%
0713°+4.1°16%
0813°+3.6°18%
0914°+2.7°19%
1015°+2.0°25%
1116°+1.1°48%
1216°+0.7°63%
1316°+0.4°81%
1416°+0.2°96%
1516°+0.2°97%
1616°+0.2°99%
1715°+0.3°99%
1815°+0.3°99%
1915°+0.3°100%
2014°+0.4°100%
2114°+0.3°100%
2214°+0.3°100%
2314°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken0.9° below normal across 181 days (-1.2 to -0.6).
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.5°23d
scattered-0.8°95d
broken-0.9°181d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowS at 6kt4.4° above normal across 16 days (+2.7 to +6.0).
coldernormalwarmer
S+4.4°16d
SW+3.3°80d
E+0.3°25d
NE-0.8°160d
N-1.6°72d
NW-1.9°15d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 14°C 6°C 16°C 10°C 16°C
01:00 15°C 7°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
02:00 14°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
03:00 14°C 5°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
04:00 14°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
05:00 13°C 4°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
06:00 14°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
07:00 14°C 4°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
08:00 14°C 3°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
09:00 14°C 6°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
10:00 14°C 8°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
11:00 14°C 10°C 18°C 11°C 15°C
12:00 14°C 10°C 19°C 11°C 16°C
13:00 14°C 10°C 20°C 11°C 17°C
14:00 14°C 10°C 21°C 11°C 16°C
15:00 15°C 10°C 20°C 11°C 17°C
16:00 15°C 10°C 20°C 11°C 16°C
17:00 14°C 10°C 20°C 11°C 15°C
18:00 14°C 9°C 19°C 10°C 15°C
19:00 14°C 9°C 19°C 10°C 15°C
20:00 14°C 8°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
21:00 14°C 8°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
22:00 15°C 6°C 16°C 10°C 16°C
23:00 14°C 6°C 17°C 10°C 16°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 14°C —
11-08 10°C —
11-07 11°C —
11-06 11°C —
11-05 12°C —
11-04 15°C —
11-03 17°C —
11-02 21°C —
11-01 17°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 15°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 16°C —
10-27 15°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON13.3°17.3°0.62°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM12.4°16.3°0.66°
ECMWF IFS14.0°17.2°0.72°
CMA GRAPES12.6°17.0°1.44°
NOAA GFS11.4°14.5°1.67°
JMA GSM12.5°16.3°2.67°
UK Met Office13.5°16.2°2.90°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.62°-0.33°84%
Environment Canada GEM0.66°+0.15°84%
ECMWF IFS0.72°+0.00°79%
CMA GRAPES1.44°-1.35°34%
NOAA GFS1.67°+1.61°36%
JMA GSM2.67°-2.67°4%
UK Met Office2.90°-2.89°8%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
base09/18Z→10/24Zvariable 2kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming09/19Z→09/22Zlight showers rain; scattered at 3,500ft; broken at 9,000ft
temporarily30%10/02Z→10/06Z210° 12kt; 4000m; showers rain; scattered at 800ft; few at 1,800ft (TCU); broken at 2,500ft
becoming10/06Z→10/09Zscattered at 1,400ft; broken at 2,500ft
becoming10/09Z→10/12Zscattered at 3,500ft
becoming10/21Z→10/24Z210° 12kt
TAF LTFM 091640Z 0918/1024 VRB02KT CAVOK BECMG 0919/0922 -SHRA SCT035 BKN090 PROB30 TEMPO 1002/1006 21012KT 4000 SHRA SCT008 FEW018TCU BKN025 BECMG 1006/1009 SCT014 BKN025 BECMG 1009/1012 SCT035 BECMG 1021/1024 21012KT
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤7°C0%0%0/67
8°C0%0%0/67
9°C0%0%0/67
10°C0%1%1/67
11°C2%4%3/67
12°C17%3%2/67
13°C55%4%3/67
14°C26%9%6/67
15°C4%21%14/67
16°C1%12%8/67
≥17°C0%45%30/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 106% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
28°C
OEJN 2100Z
today high so far
28°C
at 00:00
forecast peak31°DWD ICON
climatology alone suggests34°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+6.0°
observed 00:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:43
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°20°24°28°32°36°02:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 28°C
16°20°24°28°32°36°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 28°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR OEJN, 8 obs
METAR OEJN 092100Z 36005KT 9999 FEW040 28/20 Q1015 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
00:00 28° 20° 360/05 FEW040 —
23:00 28° 19° 360/05 SCT040 —
22:00 28° 19° 360/06 SCT040 —
21:00 28° 20° 350/07 SCT040 —
20:00 29° 20° 340/12 SCT040 —
19:00 29° 20° 340/13 SCT040 —
18:00 29° 20° 320/13 SCT040 —
17:00 30° 20° 320/14 BKN040 —
current state
▼
METAR 28°C at 00:00 local, -1.0°C vs 14d-median (29°C this hour) OEJN, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (19°C→20°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (28°C @ 00:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥36°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥36°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 32°C, current 28°C @ 00:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 29.0°C usual 29.0°C–31.0°C
typical 12:00 35.0°C usual 35.0°C–36.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
39°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high35.0°C
usual range35.0°C – 36.0°C
days ≥36°C6 / 14
days ≥37°C2 / 14
days ≥38°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 76% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 76% of 138 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.4°C mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 32°C
heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
28° now at 00:00typically +6.0° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 34°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0028°+6.0°0%
0128°+6.4°0%
0228°+6.7°0%
0327°+7.0°0%
0427°+7.3°0%
0527°+7.6°0%
0627°+7.9°0%
0726°+7.9°0%
0828°+6.2°0%
0930°+4.2°1%
1032°+2.4°1%
1133°+1.2°33%
1234°+0.4°75%
1334°+0.1°91%
1433°+0.1°99%
1533°+0.0°100%
1632°+0.1°100%
1731°+0.0°100%
1830°+0.0°100%
1930°+0.0°100%
2029°+0.0°100%
2129°+0.0°100%
2229°+0.0°100%
2329°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew-0.1° across 62 days (-0.4 to +0.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.9°28d
few-0.1°62d
scattered-0.7°23d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 5ktnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+2.6°13d
S+0.9°16d
SW+0.4°57d
NW+0.2°132d
W-0.5°155d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 29°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
01:00 29°C 27°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
02:00 29°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
03:00 28°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 29°C
04:00 27°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
05:00 27°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
06:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
07:00 27°C 25°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
08:00 29°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
09:00 32°C 28°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
10:00 33°C 30°C 35°C 31°C 34°C
11:00 35°C 27°C 37°C 34°C 35°C
12:00 35°C 27°C 37°C 34°C 36°C
13:00 34°C 31°C 39°C 33°C 35°C
14:00 34°C 32°C 37°C 33°C 34°C
15:00 33°C 31°C 37°C 32°C 34°C
16:00 33°C 30°C 36°C 32°C 34°C
17:00 32°C 26°C 35°C 31°C 33°C
18:00 31°C 26°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
19:00 31°C 26°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
20:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
21:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
22:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
23:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 29°C 31°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 32°C —
11-08 32°C —
11-07 33°C —
11-06 35°C —
11-05 35°C —
11-04 36°C —
11-03 39°C —
11-02 36°C —
11-01 35°C —
10-31 36°C —
10-30 35°C —
10-29 35°C —
10-28 36°C —
10-27 38°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON31.2°30.0°0.97°most accurate here
NOAA GFS30.5°30.2°1.14°
UK Met Office31.9°31.7°1.23°
Environment Canada GEM31.7°30.9°1.53°
CMA GRAPES30.7°30.0°2.07°
ECMWF IFS32.6°32.1°2.45°
JMA GSM29.4°28.8°6.56°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.97°+0.24°61%
NOAA GFS1.14°-0.46°50%
UK Met Office1.23°+0.91°49%
Environment Canada GEM1.53°-1.39°37%
CMA GRAPES2.07°-2.06°21%
ECMWF IFS2.45°+2.43°8%
JMA GSM6.56°-6.56°0%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
base09/18Z→10/24Z350° 8kt; 7000m; scattered at 4,000ft
becoming10/06Z→10/08Z300° 15kt
temporarily10/06Z→10/16Zvariable 26kt; 2000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 3,000ft (CB); broken at 4,000ft
becoming10/18Z→10/20Z350° 8kt
TAF OEJN 091700Z 0918/1024 35008KT 7000 SCT040 BECMG 1006/1008 30015KT TEMPO 1006/1016 VRB26KT 2000 TSRA FEW030CB BKN040 BECMG 1018/1020 35008KT
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤27°C0%0%0/67
28°C1%0%0/67
29°C5%0%0/67
30°C2%1%1/67
31°C18%1%1/67
32°C40%7%5/67
33°C34%21%14/67
34°C9%25%17/67
35°C1%21%14/67
36°C1%13%9/67
≥37°C0%9%6/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 111% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
24°C
OPKC 2100Z
today high so far
26°C
at 00:00
expected maximum35°from climatology
typical further climb+11.0°
observed 02:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:46
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
4°11°18°25°32°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 34°CNOW 24°C
4°11°18°25°32°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 34°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR OPKC, 8 obs
METAR OPKC 092100Z 24003KT 5000 FU NSC 24/20 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:00 24° 20° 240/03 NSC FU
01:30 25° 21° 240/05 NSC FU
01:00 25° 21° 240/04 NSC HZ
00:30 26° 21° 310/03 NSC HZ
00:00 26° 21° 310/03 NSC HZ
23:30 26° 21° 320/03 NSC HZ
23:00 26° 20° 300/04 NSC HZ
22:30 27° 20° 300/05 NSC HZ
current state
?
No live METAR — climatology shown without observation context OPKC
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint falling (21°C→20°C) drying — accelerates warming
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median — usual —–—
typical 14:00 — usual —–—
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
38°C
14d high, 2026 10 27
avg high—
usual range—
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 93% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 93% of 138 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=128
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 16:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=131
12:00 → 17:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 18:00-3.8°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 19:00-5.1°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 20:00-6.0°C mean, 5y, n=133
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 34°C
heating passport climb to peak 131 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 02:00typically +11.0° more (p90 +14.0°)expected peak 35°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0023°+10.1°0%
0122°+10.8°0%
0222°+11.0°0%
0322°+11.5°0%
0421°+12.1°0%
0520°+12.8°0%
0620°+13.2°0%
0720°+13.0°0%
0822°+10.7°0%
0926°+7.1°0%
1029°+4.4°0%
1131°+2.5°2%
1232°+1.2°31%
1333°+0.5°68%
1433°+0.2°93%
1532°+0.2°98%
1631°+0.4°98%
1730°+0.5°98%
1828°+0.6°98%
1927°+0.4°98%
2026°+0.4°98%
2125°+0.4°98%
2224°+0.4°100%
2323°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear0.6° above normal across 203 days (+0.3 to +0.8).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.6°203d
few+0.4°75d
scattered-0.2°70d
broken-1.3°82d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 3kt0.3° below normal across 137 days (-0.7 to -0.0).
coldernormalwarmer
NW+1.4°14d
CALM+1.3°11d
SE+0.9°11d
E+0.5°18d
VARIABLE+0.4°28d
W-0.0°136d
NE-0.1°56d
S-0.2°16d
SW-0.3°137d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 — — — — —
01:00 — — — — —
02:00 — — — — —
03:00 — — — — —
04:00 — — — — —
05:00 — — — — —
06:00 — — — — —
07:00 — — — — —
08:00 — — — — —
09:00 — — — — —
10:00 — — — — —
11:00 — — — — —
12:00 — — — — —
13:00 — — — — —
14:00 — — — — —
15:00 — — — — —
16:00 — — — — —
17:00 — — — — —
18:00 — — — — —
19:00 — — — — —
20:00 — — — — —
21:00 27°C 27°C 27°C 27°C 27°C
22:00 27°C 27°C 27°C 27°C 27°C
23:00 — — — — —
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 36°C —
11-08 36°C —
11-07 37°C —
11-06 36°C —
11-05 36°C —
11-04 36°C —
11-03 36°C —
11-02 33°C —
11-01 35°C —
10-31 36°C —
10-30 37°C —
10-29 36°C —
10-28 37°C —
10-27 38°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
CMA GRAPES33.0°32.9°—
ECMWF IFS34.1°33.6°—
Environment Canada GEM33.6°33.1°—
NOAA GFS32.7°31.4°—
DWD ICON35.1°34.6°—
JMA GSM32.4°33.5°—
UK Met Office34.0°32.8°—
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
base09/18Z→10/24Z260° 5kt gusting 15; 6000m; no significant cloud
temporarily09/18Z→09/24Z270° 8kt; 4000m; smoke
temporarily10/00Z→10/04Z000° 0kt; 2000m; smoke; few at 3,000ft
TAF OPKC 091700Z 0918/1024 26005G15KT 6000 NSC TEMPO 0918/0924 27008KT 4000 FU TEMPO 1000/1004 00000KT 2000 FU FEW030
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤29°C0%1%1/67
30°C0%9%6/67
31°C0%16%11/67
32°C1%9%6/67
33°C5%28%19/67
34°C48%7%5/67
35°C44%10%7/67
36°C6%15%10/67
37°C0%1%1/67
38°C0%1%1/67
≥39°C0%0%0/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.

Kuala Lumpur

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
24°C
WMKK 2100Z
today high so far
25°C
at 00:00
forecast peak31°UK Met Office
typical further climb+7.0°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:57
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
23°25°27°29°31°33°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 24°C
23°25°27°29°31°33°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR WMKK, 8 obs
METAR WMKK 092100Z 00000KT 5000 BR FEW008 24/24 Q1009 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 24° 24° 000/00 FEW008 BR
04:30 24° 24° 000/00 FEW008 BR
04:00 24° 24° 000/00 FEW008 —
03:30 24° 24° 000/00 FEW010 —
03:00 25° 24° 000/00 FEW010 —
02:30 25° 24° 000/00 FEW010 —
02:00 25° 24° — FEW010 —
01:30 25° 24° — FEW010 —
current state
▼
METAR 24°C at 05:00 local, -1.0°C vs 14d-median (25°C this hour) WMKK, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~24°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (24°C→24°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (24°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥34°C possible 14d records show 2/14 days reached ≥34°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 31°C, current 24°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 25.0°C usual 25.0°C–25.0°C
typical 13:00 33.0°C usual 32.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
34°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high33.0°C
usual range32.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥34°C2 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
days ≥36°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 73% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 73% of 139 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-2.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-3.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~31°C (clim) vs ecmwf 31°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 05:00typically +7.0° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 31°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0026°+5.8°1%
0126°+6.2°0%
0226°+6.4°0%
0325°+6.6°0%
0425°+6.8°0%
0525°+7.0°0%
0625°+7.1°0%
0725°+7.1°0%
0826°+6.1°0%
0928°+4.4°0%
1029°+3.1°1%
1130°+1.9°15%
1231°+1.1°39%
1331°+0.7°70%
1431°+0.6°90%
1530°+0.5°99%
1630°+0.5°99%
1729°+0.4°100%
1828°+0.3°100%
1927°+0.3°100%
2027°+0.2°100%
2127°+0.3°100%
2226°+0.2°100%
2326°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew0.2° above normal across 177 days (+0.0 to +0.4).
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.2°177d
scattered-0.3°211d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
W-0.1°14d
NW-0.5°50d
CALM-1.3°14d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 25°C 27°C
01:00 25°C 25°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
02:00 25°C 25°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
03:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
04:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
05:00 25°C 24°C 26°C 25°C 25°C
06:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 25°C
07:00 25°C 24°C 27°C 25°C 25°C
08:00 25°C 25°C 26°C 25°C 26°C
09:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
10:00 30°C 28°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
11:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 30°C 32°C
12:00 31°C 29°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
13:00 32°C 30°C 34°C 31°C 32°C
14:00 32°C 25°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
15:00 32°C 25°C 34°C 28°C 32°C
16:00 31°C 26°C 33°C 27°C 32°C
17:00 30°C 26°C 33°C 27°C 32°C
18:00 28°C 24°C 31°C 26°C 31°C
19:00 27°C 24°C 30°C 25°C 29°C
20:00 27°C 23°C 29°C 25°C 28°C
21:00 26°C 24°C 29°C 25°C 28°C
22:00 26°C 24°C 28°C 25°C 27°C
23:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 25°C 27°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 25°C —
11-09 31°C —
11-08 32°C —
11-07 33°C —
11-06 30°C —
11-05 33°C —
11-04 33°C —
11-03 34°C —
11-02 33°C —
11-01 34°C —
10-31 33°C —
10-30 32°C —
10-29 32°C —
10-28 33°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office31.1°32.3°0.63°most accurate here
DWD ICON31.1°31.5°0.74°
ECMWF IFS31.9°30.2°0.86°
CMA GRAPES33.1°29.3°1.26°
Environment Canada GEM30.9°30.8°1.46°
NOAA GFS31.0°29.5°1.68°
JMA GSM28.9°28.7°3.83°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.63°-0.06°78%
DWD ICON0.74°-0.38°75%
ECMWF IFS0.86°-0.59°66%
CMA GRAPES1.26°-1.02°39%
Environment Canada GEM1.46°-1.33°43%
NOAA GFS1.68°-1.53°24%
JMA GSM3.83°-3.83°3%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→11/00Z
base09/18Z→11/00Zvariable 3kt; 10km+; few at 1,800ft
temporarily10/09Z→10/13Z3000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 1,700ft (CB); scattered at 3,000ft
TAF WMKK 091700Z 0918/1100 VRB03KT 9999 FEW018 TEMPO 1009/1013 3000 TSRA FEW017CB SCT030
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤26°C0%1%1/68
27°C0%0%0/68
28°C0%0%0/68
29°C0%0%0/68
30°C4%13%9/68
31°C13%21%14/68
32°C51%26%18/68
33°C34%32%22/68
34°C5%4%3/68
35°C0%1%1/68
≥36°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 108% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
7°C
EGLC 2120Z
today high so far
10°C
at 12:50
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 21:20 local
usually warmestsunset 16:20
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
3°6°9°12°15°23:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:0020:00ECMWF 10°CNOW 7°C
3°6°9°12°15°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 10°CNOW 7°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR EGLC, 8 obs
METAR EGLC 092120Z AUTO 09011KT 3700 HZ OVC002 07/06 Q1015
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:20 7° 6° 090/11 OVC002 HZ
20:50 7° 6° 070/09 OVC002 HZ
20:20 7° 6° 060/06 OVC004 HZ
19:50 7° 6° 040/06 OVC006 HZ
19:20 8° 6° 050/05 OVC014 —
18:50 8° 6° 050/04 BKN014 —
18:20 8° 6° 040/05 BKN014 —
17:50 8° 6° 050/06 BKN013 —
current state
▼
METAR 7°C at 21:20 local, -3.0°C vs 14d-median (10°C this hour) EGLC, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 10°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (6°C→6°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 10°C, current 7°C @ 21:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 10.0°C usual 9.0°C–12.0°C
typical 13:00 12.0°C usual 10.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
17°C
14d high, 2026 10 29
avg high12.0°C
usual range10.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥13°C6 / 14
days ≥14°C5 / 14
days ≥15°C5 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 68% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 68% of 111 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 17:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 10°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
7° now at 21:00peak already set on 97% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+2.7°15%
0110°+2.8°16%
0210°+2.8°18%
0310°+2.9°19%
0410°+2.9°19%
0510°+2.8°21%
0610°+2.7°21%
0710°+2.6°22%
0811°+2.3°24%
0911°+1.8°31%
1012°+1.3°40%
1112°+0.9°56%
1212°+0.5°74%
1313°+0.3°88%
1412°+0.2°93%
1512°+0.2°94%
1612°+0.3°96%
1712°+0.2°96%
1811°+0.3°97%
1911°+0.3°97%
2011°+0.2°97%
2111°+0.2°97%
2211°+0.1°99%
2310°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast0.7° below normal across 58 days (-1.3 to -0.1).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+1.5°53d
few-0.1°87d
scattered-0.2°115d
broken+0.1°75d
overcast-0.7°58d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 11kt+0.8° across 37 days (-0.0 to +1.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+1.2°49d
SE+1.2°25d
E+0.8°37d
SW+0.6°109d
W-0.4°77d
NE-1.2°20d
N-1.9°12d
NW-2.7°36d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 6°C 17°C 9°C 10°C
01:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 9°C 10°C
02:00 10°C 5°C 17°C 9°C 10°C
03:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 10°C
04:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 8°C 10°C
05:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 10°C
06:00 9°C 5°C 17°C 8°C 9°C
07:00 9°C 6°C 16°C 8°C 10°C
08:00 9°C 6°C 15°C 8°C 10°C
09:00 10°C 6°C 14°C 8°C 10°C
10:00 10°C 7°C 14°C 9°C 10°C
11:00 11°C 7°C 15°C 10°C 12°C
12:00 11°C 8°C 17°C 10°C 14°C
13:00 11°C 9°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
14:00 12°C 10°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
15:00 11°C 10°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
16:00 11°C 10°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
17:00 11°C 9°C 17°C 10°C 13°C
18:00 11°C 8°C 17°C 10°C 13°C
19:00 11°C 8°C 17°C 10°C 12°C
20:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 10°C 12°C
21:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 12°C
22:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 11°C
23:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 11°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 10°C —
11-08 10°C —
11-07 11°C —
11-06 11°C —
11-05 10°C —
11-04 10°C —
11-03 12°C —
11-02 13°C —
11-01 11°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 15°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 17°C —
10-27 17°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office10.2°10.3°0.51°most accurate here
DWD ICON9.8°10.3°0.51°
Environment Canada GEM10.9°10.7°0.68°
NOAA GFS11.2°11.5°0.77°
ECMWF IFS9.1°9.8°0.79°
JMA GSM10.1°10.3°1.44°
CMA GRAPES9.0°10.9°2.26°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.51°+0.22°91%
DWD ICON0.51°-0.09°91%
Environment Canada GEM0.68°-0.18°82%
NOAA GFS0.77°+0.47°76%
ECMWF IFS0.79°+0.02°70%
JMA GSM1.44°-1.28°39%
CMA GRAPES2.26°-2.26°17%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→09/22ZAMENDED
base09/18Z→09/22Z060° 8kt; 10km+; scattered at 1,000ft
possibly40%09/18Z→09/19Z6000m; broken at 800ft
possibly30%09/19Z→09/22Z300m; fog; sky obscured
TAF AMD EGLC 091810Z 0918/0922 06008KT 9999 SCT010 PROB40 0918/0919 6000 BKN008 PROB30 0919/0922 0300 FG VV///
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤6°C0%0%0/68
7°C0%0%0/68
8°C0%1%1/68
9°C0%1%1/68
10°C100%15%10/68
11°C0%7%5/68
12°C0%12%8/68
13°C0%22%15/68
14°C0%13%9/68
15°C0%10%7/68
≥16°C0%18%12/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
7°C
EGLC 2120Z
today low so far
4°C
at 00:50
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 21:20 local
usually warmestsunset 16:20
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
3°6°9°12°15°23:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:0020:00ECMWF 5°CNOW 7°C
3°6°9°12°15°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 5°CNOW 7°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR EGLC, 8 obs
METAR EGLC 092120Z AUTO 09011KT 3700 HZ OVC002 07/06 Q1015
local temp dew wind cloud wx
21:20 7° 6° 090/11 OVC002 HZ
20:50 7° 6° 070/09 OVC002 HZ
20:20 7° 6° 060/06 OVC004 HZ
19:50 7° 6° 040/06 OVC006 HZ
19:20 8° 6° 050/05 OVC014 —
18:50 8° 6° 050/04 BKN014 —
18:20 8° 6° 040/05 BKN014 —
17:50 8° 6° 050/06 BKN013 —
current state
▼
METAR 7°C at 21:20 local, -3.0°C vs 14d-median (10°C this hour) EGLC, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's minimum so far is 4°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (6°C→6°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current 7°C @ 21:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 10.0°C usual 9.0°C–12.0°C
typical 13:00 12.0°C usual 10.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how cold it gets last 14 days
17°C
14d low, 2026 10 29
avg high12.0°C
usual range10.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥13°C6 / 14
days ≥14°C5 / 14
days ≥15°C5 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 68% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 68% of 111 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 17:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 5°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
7° now at 21:00peak already set on 97% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+2.7°15%
0110°+2.8°16%
0210°+2.8°18%
0310°+2.9°19%
0410°+2.9°19%
0510°+2.8°21%
0610°+2.7°21%
0710°+2.6°22%
0811°+2.3°24%
0911°+1.8°31%
1012°+1.3°40%
1112°+0.9°56%
1212°+0.5°74%
1313°+0.3°88%
1412°+0.2°93%
1512°+0.2°94%
1612°+0.3°96%
1712°+0.2°96%
1811°+0.3°97%
1911°+0.3°97%
2011°+0.2°97%
2111°+0.2°97%
2211°+0.1°99%
2310°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast0.7° below normal across 58 days (-1.3 to -0.1).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+1.5°53d
few-0.1°87d
scattered-0.2°115d
broken+0.1°75d
overcast-0.7°58d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 11kt+0.8° across 37 days (-0.0 to +1.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+1.2°49d
SE+1.2°25d
E+0.8°37d
SW+0.6°109d
W-0.4°77d
NE-1.2°20d
N-1.9°12d
NW-2.7°36d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 6°C 17°C 9°C 10°C
01:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 9°C 10°C
02:00 9°C 5°C 17°C 9°C 10°C
03:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 10°C
04:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 8°C 10°C
05:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 9°C 10°C
06:00 9°C 5°C 17°C 8°C 9°C
07:00 9°C 6°C 16°C 8°C 10°C
08:00 9°C 6°C 15°C 8°C 10°C
09:00 10°C 6°C 14°C 8°C 10°C
10:00 10°C 7°C 14°C 9°C 10°C
11:00 10°C 7°C 15°C 10°C 12°C
12:00 11°C 8°C 17°C 10°C 14°C
13:00 11°C 9°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
14:00 12°C 10°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
15:00 11°C 10°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
16:00 11°C 10°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
17:00 11°C 9°C 17°C 10°C 13°C
18:00 11°C 8°C 17°C 10°C 13°C
19:00 11°C 8°C 17°C 10°C 12°C
20:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 10°C 12°C
21:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 12°C
22:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 11°C
23:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 11°C
observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 10°C —
11-08 10°C —
11-07 11°C —
11-06 11°C —
11-05 10°C —
11-04 10°C —
11-03 12°C —
11-02 13°C —
11-01 11°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 15°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 17°C —
10-27 17°C —
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office4.7°5.0°0.51°most accurate here
DWD ICON3.6°5.6°0.51°
Environment Canada GEM3.1°4.0°0.68°
NOAA GFS6.7°6.6°0.77°
ECMWF IFS3.1°3.7°0.79°
JMA GSM4.4°7.0°1.44°
CMA GRAPES4.8°5.8°2.26°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.51°+0.22°91%
DWD ICON0.51°-0.09°91%
Environment Canada GEM0.68°-0.18°82%
NOAA GFS0.77°+0.47°76%
ECMWF IFS0.79°+0.02°70%
JMA GSM1.44°-1.28°39%
CMA GRAPES2.26°-2.26°17%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→09/22ZAMENDED
base09/18Z→09/22Z060° 8kt; 10km+; scattered at 1,000ft
possibly40%09/18Z→09/19Z6000m; broken at 800ft
possibly30%09/19Z→09/22Z300m; fog; sky obscured
TAF AMD EGLC 091810Z 0918/0922 06008KT 9999 SCT010 PROB40 0918/0919 6000 BKN008 PROB30 0919/0922 0300 FG VV///
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤2°C0%0%0/68
3°C0%0%0/68
4°C100%4%3/68
5°C0%1%1/68
6°C0%7%5/68
7°C0%15%10/68
8°C0%18%12/68
9°C0%18%12/68
10°C0%12%8/68
11°C0%10%7/68
≥12°C0%15%10/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Los Angeles

12:53 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
82°F
KLAX 2053Z
today high so far
85°F
at 11:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.3°
observed 12:53 local
usually warmestsunset 16:54
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
38°48°58°68°78°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 85°FNOW 82°F
32°43°54°65°76°87°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 85°FNOW 82°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KLAX, 8 obs
METAR KLAX 092053Z 26011KT 10SM FEW300 28/10 A2999 RMK AO2 SLP152 T02780100 58019 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:53 82° 50° 260/11 FEW300 —
11:53 85° 48° 240/09 FEW300 —
10:53 84° 40° 000/00 FEW300 —
09:53 81° 41° 040/05 FEW300 FU
08:53 77° 40° 070/04 FEW300 —
07:53 71° 40° 000/00 FEW001 FU FU
06:53 66° 39° 080/03 FEW001 FU FU
05:53 67° 39° 070/04 FEW180 —
current state
▲
METAR 82°F at 12:53 local, +8.1°F vs 14d-median (74°F this hour) KLAX, running ahead of climatology
✓
Peak hour 11:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 85°F climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (48°F→50°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +8.1°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 85°F, current 82°F @ 12:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 73.9°F usual 72.0°F–78.1°F
typical 11:00 73.9°F usual 73.0°F–78.1°F
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
88°F
14d high, 2026 11 08
avg high73.9°F
usual range73.0°F – 78.1°F
days ≥75°F5 / 14
days ≥76°F4 / 14
days ≥77°F4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 58% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 58% of 137 days, most often around 11:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 11:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00-1.2°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-2.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-4.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-5.7°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-6.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-6.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-7.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0082°F
implied peak— vs ecmwf 85°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
82° now at 13:00peak already set on 94% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0059°+11.5°3%
0158°+12.6°3%
0257°+13.2°3%
0357°+13.8°3%
0456°+14.3°3%
0556°+14.1°3%
0657°+13.5°3%
0760°+10.0°4%
0864°+6.4°4%
0967°+3.7°9%
1069°+1.7°36%
1169°+0.6°69%
1269°+0.5°88%
1368°+0.3°94%
1468°+0.1°99%
1566°+0.1°100%
1664°+0.3°100%
1763°+0.3°100%
1863°+0.3°100%
1962°+0.2°100%
2062°+0.4°100%
2161°+0.3°100%
2261°+0.2°100%
2360°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew+0.3° across 116 days (-0.6 to +1.3) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear+3.2°27d
few+0.3°116d
scattered-0.8°134d
broken-1.4°83d
overcast-5.4°27d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 11kt-0.6° across 253 days (-1.2 to +0.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+2.1°14d
W-0.6°253d
SW-1.2°99d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 67°F 60°F 71°F 65°F 68°F
01:00 65°F 60°F 69°F 62°F 67°F
02:00 63°F 59°F 69°F 61°F 66°F
03:00 63°F 58°F 67°F 60°F 65°F
04:00 62°F 57°F 66°F 60°F 64°F
05:00 61°F 55°F 67°F 59°F 64°F
06:00 61°F 57°F 67°F 59°F 64°F
07:00 63°F 58°F 66°F 61°F 64°F
08:00 65°F 62°F 71°F 63°F 68°F
09:00 67°F 64°F 77°F 66°F 73°F
10:00 70°F 67°F 80°F 69°F 73°F
11:00 72°F 68°F 84°F 71°F 76°F
12:00 74°F 69°F 87°F 72°F 78°F
13:00 74°F 69°F 88°F 72°F 77°F
14:00 74°F 70°F 88°F 72°F 76°F
15:00 73°F 69°F 83°F 72°F 74°F
16:00 72°F 68°F 80°F 70°F 74°F
17:00 71°F 66°F 76°F 69°F 72°F
18:00 69°F 66°F 74°F 68°F 71°F
19:00 69°F 66°F 74°F 68°F 71°F
20:00 68°F 64°F 75°F 67°F 71°F
21:00 68°F 63°F 73°F 67°F 69°F
22:00 68°F 62°F 72°F 66°F 69°F
23:00 67°F 62°F 71°F 64°F 69°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 71°F —
11-08 88°F —
11-07 84°F —
11-06 83°F —
11-05 78°F —
11-04 73°F —
11-03 73°F —
11-02 73°F —
11-01 70°F —
10-31 71°F —
10-30 70°F —
10-29 73°F —
10-28 74°F —
10-27 75°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by9.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS86.2°83.8°0.90°most accurate here
UK Met Office81.0°81.3°1.43°
JMA GSM80.8°77.5°3.01°
CMA GRAPES79.9°79.5°3.79°
Environment Canada GEM86.7°85.1°4.04°
DWD ICON84.6°84.6°4.30°
ECMWF IFS88.9°88.3°10.17°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS0.90°+0.52°88%
UK Met Office1.43°+0.06°74%
JMA GSM3.01°+2.39°37%
CMA GRAPES3.79°+3.45°26%
Environment Canada GEM4.04°+3.85°9%
DWD ICON4.30°+4.22°7%
ECMWF IFS10.17°+10.05°0%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z260° 10kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/04Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/10Z onwards070° 5kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/16Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/20Z onwards260° 10kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
TAF KLAX 092103Z 0921/1024 26010KT P6SM SKC FM100400 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM101000 07005KT P6SM SKC FM101600 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM102000 26010KT P6SM SKC
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤75°F0%82%56/68
76-77°F0%9%6/68
78-79°F0%3%2/68
80-81°F0%0%0/68
82-83°F0%3%2/68
84-85°F98%1%1/68
86-87°F1%0%0/68
88-89°F0%1%1/68
90-91°F0%0%0/68
92-93°F0%0%0/68
≥94°F0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
19°C
VILK 2100Z
today high so far
20°C
at 00:00
forecast peak29°DWD ICON
typical further climb+10.6°
observed 02:30 local
usually warmestsunset 17:19
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
14°18°22°26°30°04:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:00ECMWF 29°CNOW 19°C
14°18°22°26°30°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 29°CNOW 19°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR VILK, 8 obs
METAR VILK 092100Z 28003KT 2000 BR NSC 19/18 Q1015 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
02:30 19° 18° 280/03 NSC BR
02:00 19° 19° 280/03 NSC BR
01:30 19° 19° 280/03 NSC BR
01:00 19° 18° 280/03 NSC BR
00:30 19° 18° 280/03 NSC BR
00:00 20° 19° 280/03 NSC BR
23:30 20° 19° 280/04 NSC BR BR
23:00 20° 19° — NSC BR BR
current state
▼
METAR 19°C at 02:30 local, -2.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) VILK, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~20°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (19°C→18°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (19°C @ 02:30) with climatology suggests peak ≥31°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥31°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 29°C, current 19°C @ 02:30
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 21.0°C usual 20.0°C–22.0°C
typical 14:00 30.0°C usual 30.0°C–31.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
32°C
14d high, 2026 10 27
avg high30.0°C
usual range30.0°C – 31.0°C
days ≥31°C5 / 14
days ≥32°C1 / 14
days ≥33°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–13:00
where the high landed on 77% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 13:00 local on 77% of 135 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=117
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=122
12:00 → 15:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=115
12:00 → 16:00-0.0°C mean, 5y, n=119
12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=118
12:00 → 18:00-4.5°C mean, 5y, n=117
12:00 → 19:00-5.7°C mean, 5y, n=117
12:00 → 20:00-6.5°C mean, 5y, n=115
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:30)
implied peak~30°C (clim) vs ecmwf 29°C
heating passport climb to peak 114 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
19° now at 02:00typically +10.6° more (p90 +13.0°)expected peak 30°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0019°+9.5°0%
0119°+10.0°0%
0218°+10.6°0%
0318°+11.0°0%
0418°+11.3°0%
0517°+11.6°0%
0617°+11.9°0%
0717°+11.5°0%
0820°+9.0°0%
0923°+6.3°0%
1025°+3.9°1%
1127°+2.2°3%
1228°+1.0°32%
1329°+0.4°75%
1429°+0.1°97%
1529°+0.1°100%
1628°+0.3°100%
1726°+0.7°100%
1824°+0.5°100%
1922°+0.3°100%
2021°+0.3°100%
2121°+0.2°100%
2220°+0.2°100%
2320°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear0.5° above normal across 135 days (+0.3 to +0.7).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.5°135d
few+0.7°52d
scattered+1.1°88d
broken-0.6°84d
overcast-4.4°22d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 3kt0.9° above normal across 57 days (+0.5 to +1.3).
coldernormalwarmer
W+0.9°57d
NW+0.7°88d
N+0.6°13d
VARIABLE+0.2°15d
CALM+0.1°39d
SE-0.4°32d
E-0.9°58d
NE-1.4°17d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 22°C 20°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
01:00 21°C 19°C 24°C 20°C 23°C
02:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 22°C
03:00 21°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 22°C
04:00 21°C 17°C 25°C 19°C 22°C
05:00 21°C 18°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
06:00 21°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
07:00 20°C 17°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
08:00 22°C 19°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
09:00 23°C 21°C 27°C 23°C 25°C
10:00 26°C 23°C 29°C 24°C 27°C
11:00 28°C 22°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
12:00 29°C 22°C 31°C 28°C 29°C
13:00 30°C 22°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
14:00 30°C 22°C 31°C 30°C 31°C
15:00 30°C 22°C 32°C 29°C 30°C
16:00 29°C 22°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
17:00 27°C 22°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
18:00 26°C 22°C 29°C 24°C 26°C
19:00 24°C 21°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
20:00 23°C 21°C 27°C 22°C 24°C
21:00 23°C 21°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
22:00 22°C 20°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
23:00 21°C 20°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 30°C —
11-08 31°C —
11-07 30°C —
11-06 30°C —
11-05 30°C —
11-04 30°C —
11-03 31°C —
11-02 30°C —
11-01 27°C —
10-31 24°C —
10-30 23°C —
10-29 31°C —
10-28 31°C —
10-27 32°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON29.2°28.6°0.78°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS28.9°28.9°0.95°
UK Met Office29.1°28.5°0.96°
Environment Canada GEM30.8°31.3°1.28°
JMA GSM29.8°30.4°1.80°
CMA GRAPES27.7°27.2°1.84°
NOAA GFS29.6°29.6°2.44°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.78°-0.20°78%
ECMWF IFS0.95°-0.58°59%
UK Met Office0.96°+0.47°59%
Environment Canada GEM1.28°-0.36°53%
JMA GSM1.80°-1.63°28%
CMA GRAPES1.84°+1.48°28%
NOAA GFS2.44°+2.33°26%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/06Z
base09/21Z→10/06Zvariable 2kt; 1500m; mist; no significant cloud
becoming10/00Z→10/02Z900m; shallow fog; mist
becoming10/03Z→10/05Z1800m; mist
TAF VILK 092000Z 0921/1006 VRB02KT 1500 BR NSC BECMG 1000/1002 0900 MIFG BR BECMG 1003/1005 1800 BR
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤23°C0%1%1/67
24°C0%0%0/67
25°C0%0%0/67
26°C0%3%2/67
27°C0%16%11/67
28°C2%13%9/67
29°C26%18%12/67
30°C62%31%21/67
31°C12%15%10/67
32°C2%1%1/67
≥33°C0%0%0/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
13°C
LEMD 2100Z
today high so far
17°C
at 16:30
peakalready set
left to climb+0.3°
observed 22:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:03
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
3°7°11°15°19°23°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 13°C
3°7°11°15°19°23°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 13°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LEMD, 8 obs
METAR LEMD 092100Z VRB02KT CAVOK 13/12 Q1015 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
22:00 13° 12° — CAVOK —
21:30 14° 13° 170/03 CAVOK —
21:00 15° 13° 170/06 CAVOK —
20:30 15° 13° 170/07 FEW040 —
20:00 16° 13° 170/08 FEW030TCU —
19:30 16° 13° 160/06 FEW030 —
19:00 16° 13° 170/04 FEW035 —
18:30 15° 13° 140/03 FEW035 —
current state
▲
METAR 13°C at 22:00 local, +1.0°C vs 14d-median (12°C this hour) LEMD, running ahead of climatology
✓
Peak hour 16:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 17°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint falling (13°C→12°C) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 18°C, current 13°C @ 22:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 12.0°C usual 10.0°C–12.0°C
typical 16:00 20.0°C usual 16.0°C–22.0°C
noon → peak climb +3.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
23°C
14d high, 2026 10 28
avg high20.0°C
usual range16.0°C – 22.0°C
days ≥21°C6 / 14
days ≥22°C5 / 14
days ≥23°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
14:00–16:00
where the high landed on 75% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 14:00 and 16:00 local on 75% of 137 days, most often around 15:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 16:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+1.8°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00+2.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00+2.3°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00+1.8°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 18:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 18°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
13° now at 22:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+6.5°1%
0110°+7.1°1%
0210°+7.4°1%
039°+7.7°1%
049°+8.1°1%
059°+8.2°1%
068°+8.4°1%
078°+8.5°3%
089°+8.4°3%
0910°+7.3°3%
1011°+5.8°3%
1113°+4.2°4%
1214°+2.8°9%
1315°+1.7°22%
1416°+1.0°47%
1516°+0.5°75%
1616°+0.3°96%
1716°+0.3°99%
1815°+0.5°99%
1913°+0.3°99%
2012°+0.3°100%
2112°+0.4°100%
2211°+0.3°100%
2311°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.1°26d
scattered-1.4°70d
broken-1.7°80d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
CALM+1.1°118d
VARIABLE+0.7°34d
SE+0.1°13d
S-0.7°54d
SW-0.8°67d
N-1.3°24d
W-1.4°13d
NE-1.8°30d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 5°C 13°C 8°C 11°C
01:00 9°C 4°C 12°C 7°C 10°C
02:00 9°C 3°C 13°C 7°C 9°C
03:00 8°C 2°C 12°C 6°C 9°C
04:00 7°C 2°C 12°C 5°C 8°C
05:00 7°C 1°C 13°C 4°C 8°C
06:00 6°C 0°C 13°C 4°C 8°C
07:00 6°C 0°C 13°C 5°C 7°C
08:00 6°C 0°C 13°C 5°C 8°C
09:00 7°C 1°C 14°C 6°C 10°C
10:00 10°C 5°C 15°C 8°C 12°C
11:00 13°C 7°C 16°C 10°C 14°C
12:00 15°C 10°C 18°C 12°C 16°C
13:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
14:00 17°C 13°C 21°C 14°C 20°C
15:00 18°C 14°C 22°C 15°C 21°C
16:00 19°C 14°C 23°C 16°C 21°C
17:00 20°C 14°C 23°C 16°C 22°C
18:00 18°C 13°C 21°C 15°C 20°C
19:00 17°C 10°C 19°C 14°C 18°C
20:00 14°C 10°C 19°C 12°C 15°C
21:00 13°C 7°C 18°C 11°C 14°C
22:00 12°C 7°C 14°C 10°C 12°C
23:00 11°C 6°C 13°C 10°C 12°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 17°C —
11-08 16°C —
11-07 18°C —
11-06 17°C —
11-05 16°C —
11-04 15°C —
11-03 14°C —
11-02 20°C —
11-01 21°C —
10-31 22°C —
10-30 22°C —
10-29 22°C —
10-28 23°C —
10-27 23°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
ECMWF IFS18.0°16.9°0.68°most accurate here
DWD ICON17.3°16.0°0.72°
UK Met Office16.9°17.8°0.76°
JMA GSM18.2°17.1°0.80°
NOAA GFS18.3°16.4°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM18.4°17.3°1.47°
CMA GRAPES18.0°16.0°2.68°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
ECMWF IFS0.68°-0.57°87%
DWD ICON0.72°-0.57°79%
UK Met Office0.76°-0.66°74%
JMA GSM0.80°-0.70°71%
NOAA GFS1.09°-0.96°46%
Environment Canada GEM1.47°-1.42°20%
CMA GRAPES2.68°-2.63°3%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24ZAMENDED
forecast max18°at 10/15Zmin 12°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z190° 10kt; 10km+; scattered at 3,000ft
temporarily09/18Z→09/22Zvariable 4kt
temporarily10/06Z→10/24Z4000m; drizzle rain; rain; broken at 900ft; broken at 1,400ft
temporarily30%10/12Z→10/18Z200° 15kt gusting 25
TAF AMD LEMD 091742Z 0918/1024 19010KT 9999 SCT030 TX18/1015Z TN12/1006Z TEMPO 0918/0922 VRB04KT TEMPO 1006/1024 4000 DZRA RA BKN009 BKN014 PROB30 TEMPO 1012/1018 20015G25KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤11°C0%3%2/68
12°C0%3%2/68
13°C0%1%1/68
14°C0%9%6/68
15°C0%12%8/68
16°C0%15%10/68
17°C100%18%12/68
18°C0%15%10/68
19°C0%7%5/68
20°C0%12%8/68
≥21°C0%6%4/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
26°C
RPLL 2100Z
today high so far
28°C
at 00:00
forecast peak32°DWD ICON
typical further climb+5.6°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:25
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
21°24°27°30°33°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 26°C
21°24°27°30°33°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 30°CNOW 26°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RPLL, 8 obs
METAR RPLL 092100Z 06003KT 020V090 9999 FEW025 BKN100 26/22 Q1012 NOSIG RMK A2988
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 26° 22° 060/03 BKN100 —
04:00 26° 22° 060/03 BKN100 —
03:00 27° 22° 040/05 FEW025 —
02:00 27° 22° 020/05 FEW025 —
01:00 27° 22° 010/04 FEW025 —
00:00 28° 23° 360/05 FEW025 —
23:00 28° 23° 030/07 BKN100 —
22:00 28° 24° 200/03 SCT100 —
current state
▼
METAR 26°C at 05:00 local, -2.0°C vs 14d-median (28°C this hour) RPLL, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~27°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (22°C→22°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (26°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥35°C possible 14d records show 0/14 days reached ≥35°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 30°C, current 26°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 28.0°C usual 27.0°C–28.0°C
typical 13:00 34.0°C usual 33.0°C–34.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
34°C
14d high, 2026 11 08
avg high34.0°C
usual range33.0°C – 34.0°C
days ≥35°C0 / 14
days ≥36°C0 / 14
days ≥37°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 64% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 64% of 136 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-1.9°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~33°C (clim) vs ecmwf 30°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
26° now at 05:00typically +5.6° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 32°peak already set on 1% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0027°+4.7°3%
0127°+5.0°1%
0227°+5.3°1%
0327°+5.4°1%
0427°+5.5°1%
0527°+5.6°1%
0627°+5.6°1%
0727°+4.9°1%
0828°+3.8°3%
0929°+2.8°3%
1030°+2.1°7%
1131°+1.4°21%
1231°+0.8°54%
1331°+0.6°75%
1431°+0.5°87%
1531°+0.3°96%
1631°+0.1°100%
1730°+0.1°100%
1829°+0.1°100%
1929°+0.1°100%
2029°+0.1°100%
2128°+0.1°100%
2228°+0.1°100%
2328°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken0.6° below normal across 157 days (-0.7 to -0.4).
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.2°58d
scattered+0.7°133d
broken-0.6°157d
overcast-2.6°40d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 3kt-0.7° across 11 days (-2.0 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
E+0.7°59d
SE+0.6°42d
VARIABLE+0.6°53d
W-0.5°135d
NW-0.6°25d
NE-0.7°11d
SW-1.2°24d
N-1.4°11d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
01:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 29°C
02:00 27°C 26°C 29°C 26°C 29°C
03:00 28°C 26°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
04:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
05:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
06:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
07:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
08:00 29°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 30°C
09:00 30°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
10:00 31°C 28°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
11:00 31°C 30°C 34°C 31°C 33°C
12:00 32°C 29°C 34°C 30°C 33°C
13:00 33°C 31°C 34°C 31°C 33°C
14:00 33°C 32°C 34°C 32°C 34°C
15:00 33°C 32°C 34°C 32°C 34°C
16:00 33°C 29°C 33°C 32°C 33°C
17:00 32°C 29°C 33°C 31°C 32°C
18:00 30°C 28°C 32°C 30°C 31°C
19:00 30°C 28°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
20:00 30°C 28°C 30°C 29°C 30°C
21:00 29°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 30°C
22:00 29°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 30°C
23:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 28°C —
11-09 32°C —
11-08 34°C —
11-07 33°C —
11-06 34°C —
11-05 34°C —
11-04 33°C —
11-03 33°C —
11-02 34°C —
11-01 33°C —
10-31 34°C —
10-30 32°C —
10-29 34°C —
10-28 34°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON32.5°31.8°0.85°most accurate here
UK Met Office30.6°30.7°0.98°
CMA GRAPES29.7°29.5°1.18°
JMA GSM30.3°29.9°1.22°
NOAA GFS30.8°30.5°1.35°
Environment Canada GEM30.0°30.3°1.51°
ECMWF IFS31.2°31.7°1.54°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.85°-0.39°66%
UK Met Office0.98°+0.12°59%
CMA GRAPES1.18°-0.90°47%
JMA GSM1.22°-0.87°49%
NOAA GFS1.35°-1.06°50%
Environment Canada GEM1.51°-1.23°41%
ECMWF IFS1.54°-1.52°28%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max32°at 10/06Zmin 27°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Zvariable 3kt; 10km+; few at 2,500ft; scattered at 10,000ft
temporarily09/18Z→09/24Z070° 4kt
becoming10/01Z→10/03Z110° 10kt
temporarily10/03Z→10/09Z110° 12kt gusting 22; light showers rain; few at 2,300ft (CB); scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 9,000ft
TAF RPLL 091700Z 0918/1024 VRB03KT 9999 FEW025 SCT100 TX32/1006Z TN27/0921Z TEMPO 0918/0924 07004KT BECMG 1001/1003 11010KT TEMPO 1003/1009 11012G22KT -SHRA FEW023CB SCT025 BKN090
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤26°C0%0%0/68
27°C0%1%1/68
28°C0%1%1/68
29°C1%1%1/68
30°C4%6%4/68
31°C12%22%15/68
32°C48%25%17/68
33°C33%19%13/68
34°C4%24%16/68
35°C0%0%0/68
≥36°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

Mexico City

14:45 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
24°C
MMMX 2045Z
today high so far
24°C
at 13:43
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
observed 14:45 local
usually warmestsunset 17:59
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°7°12°17°22°17:0020:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:00ECMWF 23°CNOW 24°C
2°7°12°17°22°27°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 23°CNOW 24°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR MMMX, 8 obs
METAR MMMX 092045Z 35005KT 7SM FEW020 BKN220 24/03 A3026 NOSIG RMK SLP080 57030 917 8/208 HZY
local temp dew wind cloud wx
14:45 24° 3° 350/05 BKN220 —
13:43 24° 3° 040/03 BKN200 —
13:05 23° 5° 070/05 FEW200 —
12:11 22° 7° 000/00 FEW200 —
11:41 20° 8° 000/00 FEW200 —
10:46 19° 11° 000/00 FEW200 —
10:24 18° 11° 030/02 FEW200 —
09:42 16° 11° 020/04 SCT018 —
current state
✓
METAR 24°C at 14:45 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (23°C–24°C) MMMX, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 24°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.6°C/h, dewpoint falling (3°C→3°C) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 23°C, current 24°C @ 14:45
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 23.0°C usual 23.0°C–24.0°C
typical 14:00 24.0°C usual 23.0°C–26.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
26°C
14d high, 2026 11 08
avg high24.0°C
usual range23.0°C – 26.0°C
days ≥25°C7 / 14
days ≥26°C4 / 14
days ≥27°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 93% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 93% of 138 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=64
12:00 → 14:00+2.0°C mean, 5y, n=55
12:00 → 15:00+1.8°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-3.8°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.7°C mean, 5y, n=65
today @ 12:0022°C
implied peak24°C vs ecmwf 23°C
heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
24° now at 15:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0014°+9.9°0%
0113°+10.9°0%
0212°+11.9°0%
0312°+12.7°0%
0411°+13.1°0%
0511°+13.8°0%
0610°+14.1°0%
0712°+12.5°0%
0814°+10.1°0%
0917°+7.3°0%
1019°+5.2°0%
1121°+3.6°0%
1222°+2.0°7%
1323°+1.0°31%
1424°+0.4°73%
1524°+0.0°100%
1623°+0.0°100%
1722°+0.0°100%
1820°+0.0°100%
1918°+0.0°100%
2018°+0.0°100%
2117°+0.0°100%
2216°+0.0°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken0.3° below normal across 147 days (-0.5 to -0.0).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.9°39d
few+1.1°62d
scattered+0.6°91d
broken-0.3°147d
overcast-2.6°46d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 5kt-0.3° across 97 days (-0.7 to +0.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
E+0.8°55d
NE+0.4°89d
CALM+0.3°16d
VARIABLE-0.1°78d
N-0.3°97d
SE-0.4°23d
NW-1.6°20d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 14°C 18°C 15°C 17°C
01:00 15°C 14°C 17°C 15°C 16°C
02:00 15°C 13°C 17°C 14°C 15°C
03:00 14°C 12°C 16°C 13°C 15°C
04:00 13°C 11°C 15°C 12°C 14°C
05:00 12°C 11°C 15°C 12°C 13°C
06:00 11°C 10°C 15°C 10°C 13°C
07:00 12°C 9°C 13°C 11°C 13°C
08:00 13°C 9°C 14°C 13°C 14°C
09:00 15°C 12°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
10:00 18°C 16°C 19°C 17°C 19°C
11:00 19°C 18°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
12:00 21°C 18°C 23°C 20°C 22°C
13:00 22°C 20°C 24°C 22°C 23°C
14:00 23°C 22°C 25°C 23°C 24°C
15:00 24°C 23°C 26°C 24°C 25°C
16:00 24°C 22°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
17:00 24°C 21°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
18:00 23°C 19°C 25°C 21°C 24°C
19:00 21°C 18°C 23°C 19°C 22°C
20:00 19°C 17°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
21:00 18°C 14°C 19°C 17°C 19°C
22:00 17°C 14°C 19°C 17°C 19°C
23:00 17°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-08 26°C —
11-07 23°C —
11-06 23°C —
11-05 25°C —
11-04 26°C —
11-03 26°C —
11-02 25°C —
11-01 24°C —
10-31 26°C —
10-30 24°C —
10-29 25°C —
10-28 24°C —
10-27 23°C —
10-26 24°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office23.8°23.4°0.86°most accurate here
DWD ICON24.8°23.9°0.89°
NOAA GFS25.4°24.5°0.97°
ECMWF IFS24.4°24.6°1.12°
Environment Canada GEM24.0°23.2°1.19°
JMA GSM22.9°22.0°1.65°
CMA GRAPES22.0°20.8°2.18°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.86°+0.45°68%
DWD ICON0.89°+0.50°68%
NOAA GFS0.97°+0.57°61%
ECMWF IFS1.12°+0.54°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.19°-0.99°54%
JMA GSM1.65°-1.48°29%
CMA GRAPES2.18°-2.08°18%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18ZAMENDED
forecast max25°at 09/21Zmin 12°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Z350° 5kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,000ft; broken at 20,000ft
from09/22Z onwards120° 10kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 2,500ft
temporarily10/00Z→10/03Z6 statute miles; light thunderstorm rain; broken at 2,000ft (CB)
from10/03Z onwards000° 0kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,000ft
from10/09Z onwards000° 0kt; 3 statute miles; mist; scattered at 1,000ft
temporarily10/12Z→10/15Z1 statute miles; mist; broken at 500ft
from10/16Z onwards000° 0kt; 4 statute miles; haze; no significant cloud
TAF COR MMMX 092057Z 0918/1018 35005KT P6SM SCT020 BKN200 TX25/0921Z TN12/1012Z FM092200 12010KT P6SM BKN025 TEMPO 1000/1003 6SM -TSRA BKN020CB FM100300 00000KT P6SM SCT020 FM100900 00000KT 3SM BR SCT010 TEMPO 1012/1015 1SM BR BKN005 FM101600 00000KT 4SM HZ SKC
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤16°C0%1%1/67
17°C0%0%0/67
18°C0%0%0/67
19°C0%0%0/67
20°C0%3%2/67
21°C0%3%2/67
22°C0%1%1/67
23°C0%18%12/67
24°C94%21%14/67
25°C6%30%20/67
≥26°C1%22%15/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
82°F
KMIA 2053Z
today high so far
85°F
at 11:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 15:53 local
usually warmestsunset 17:35
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
67°71°75°79°83°87°18:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:00ECMWF 82°FNOW 82°F
67°71°75°79°83°87°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 82°FNOW 82°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KMIA, 8 obs
METAR KMIA 092053Z 08008KT 10SM SCT037 SCT060 28/20 A3003 RMK AO2 SLP168 60000 T02780200 56008
local temp dew wind cloud wx
15:53 82° 68° 080/08 SCT037 —
14:53 83° 68° 050/08 SCT036 —
13:53 82° 68° 080/08 BKN036 —
12:53 85° 69° 110/07 BKN036 —
11:53 85° 70° 110/09 BKN036 —
10:53 84° 70° 120/08 BKN031 —
09:53 83° 69° 100/07 BKN030 —
08:53 81° 70° 040/05 FEW030 —
current state
▼
METAR 82°F at 15:53 local, -2.0°F vs 14d-median (84°F this hour) KMIA, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 85°F climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint falling (68°F→68°F) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -2.0°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 82°F, current 82°F @ 15:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 84.0°F usual 82.9°F–84.9°F
typical 13:00 84.9°F usual 82.9°F–86.0°F
noon → peak climb +0.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
87°F
14d high, 2026 10 29
avg high84.9°F
usual range82.9°F – 86.0°F
days ≥86°F5 / 14
days ≥87°F2 / 14
days ≥88°F0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 63% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 63% of 135 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00-0.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-1.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-2.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-3.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-4.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-5.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-5.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0085°F
implied peak85°F vs ecmwf 82°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
82° now at 16:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0076°+8.3°1%
0175°+8.8°1%
0275°+9.1°1%
0374°+9.6°1%
0474°+9.7°1%
0574°+9.8°1%
0674°+9.7°1%
0776°+7.8°1%
0878°+5.6°1%
0980°+3.6°3%
1082°+2.0°26%
1183°+1.2°49%
1283°+0.8°69%
1383°+0.4°87%
1483°+0.2°97%
1582°+0.1°100%
1680°+0.1°100%
1779°+0.2°100%
1878°+0.3°100%
1978°+0.3°100%
2077°+0.2°100%
2177°+0.2°100%
2276°+0.1°100%
2376°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowscattered1.1° above normal across 106 days (+0.7 to +1.4).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+1.1°106d
broken+0.1°222d
overcast-2.8°43d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 8kt+0.3° across 115 days (-0.1 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+1.1°29d
SE+0.9°61d
W+0.6°13d
S+0.4°22d
E+0.3°115d
NE-0.5°80d
N-2.7°21d
NW-2.8°19d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 77°F 76°F 81°F 76°F 79°F
01:00 78°F 74°F 81°F 76°F 79°F
02:00 78°F 74°F 80°F 76°F 79°F
03:00 77°F 74°F 79°F 76°F 79°F
04:00 77°F 75°F 80°F 75°F 79°F
05:00 77°F 75°F 80°F 76°F 79°F
06:00 77°F 75°F 80°F 76°F 78°F
07:00 76°F 75°F 79°F 75°F 79°F
08:00 78°F 75°F 81°F 77°F 80°F
09:00 80°F 76°F 83°F 78°F 81°F
10:00 82°F 77°F 84°F 80°F 83°F
11:00 84°F 75°F 85°F 83°F 84°F
12:00 85°F 74°F 86°F 82°F 85°F
13:00 84°F 74°F 86°F 81°F 85°F
14:00 84°F 74°F 87°F 83°F 86°F
15:00 84°F 75°F 86°F 83°F 85°F
16:00 83°F 77°F 86°F 80°F 84°F
17:00 82°F 72°F 86°F 80°F 84°F
18:00 81°F 72°F 83°F 78°F 82°F
19:00 80°F 73°F 82°F 78°F 81°F
20:00 79°F 72°F 81°F 78°F 81°F
21:00 79°F 73°F 82°F 78°F 80°F
22:00 79°F 75°F 81°F 77°F 80°F
23:00 79°F 75°F 81°F 77°F 79°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 84°F —
11-08 85°F —
11-07 86°F —
11-06 85°F —
11-05 85°F —
11-04 83°F —
11-03 86°F —
11-02 85°F —
11-01 81°F —
10-31 85°F —
10-30 86°F —
10-29 87°F —
10-28 87°F —
10-27 82°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office82.9°83.7°1.18°most accurate here
NOAA GFS84.7°80.1°1.36°
Environment Canada GEM84.9°84.4°1.77°
DWD ICON82.8°82.2°2.11°
ECMWF IFS81.5°82.2°2.39°
JMA GSM84.6°84.0°2.52°
CMA GRAPES81.7°82.2°3.28°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office1.18°-0.20°82%
NOAA GFS1.36°-0.89°70%
Environment Canada GEM1.77°-0.78°67%
DWD ICON2.11°-2.01°45%
ECMWF IFS2.39°-2.32°43%
JMA GSM2.52°-2.03°38%
CMA GRAPES3.28°-3.22°17%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z100° 8kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; scattered at 3,000ft
from10/01Z onwardsvariable 4kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 5,000ft
from10/16Z onwards120° 8kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,500ft; scattered at 5,000ft
TAF KMIA 092038Z 0921/1024 10008KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 FM100100 VRB04KT P6SM SCT025 BKN050 FM101600 12008KT P6SM SCT035 SCT050
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤71°F0%1%1/68
72-73°F0%0%0/68
74-75°F0%1%1/68
76-77°F0%0%0/68
78-79°F0%4%3/68
80-81°F0%7%5/68
82-83°F0%15%10/68
84-85°F99%43%29/68
86-87°F1%25%17/68
88-89°F0%3%2/68
≥90°F0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
9°C
LIMC 2120Z
today high so far
10°C
at 10:50
peakalready set
left to climb+0.5°
observed 22:20 local
usually warmestsunset 17:02
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°5°8°11°14°17°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 9°C
2°5°8°11°14°17°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 9°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LIMC, 8 obs
METAR LIMC 092120Z 25004KT 220V300 3000 BR BKN010 BKN060 09/08 Q1021 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
22:20 9° 8° 250/04 BKN010 BR
21:50 9° 8° 250/03 OVC010 BR
21:20 9° 8° 230/04 OVC009 BR
20:50 9° 8° 220/03 OVC010 BR
20:20 9° 8° — BKN010 BR
19:50 9° 8° 250/03 BKN060 BR
19:20 9° 8° 230/03 BKN010 BR
18:50 9° 8° — OVC050 BR
current state
✓
METAR 9°C at 22:20 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (7°C–9°C) LIMC, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 10°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (8°C→8°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 11°C, current 9°C @ 22:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 8.0°C usual 7.0°C–9.0°C
typical 14:00 14.0°C usual 11.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
18°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high14.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥15°C6 / 14
days ≥16°C6 / 14
days ≥17°C5 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 76% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 76% of 134 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 16:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 18:00-4.2°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 19:00-5.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-5.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 11°C
heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
9° now at 22:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.5° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
007°+7.9°3%
017°+7.9°3%
027°+8.0°4%
036°+8.2°4%
046°+8.3°4%
056°+8.6°4%
066°+8.5°4%
076°+8.4°4%
088°+7.0°4%
0910°+4.5°6%
1012°+2.9°9%
1113°+1.7°18%
1214°+1.0°44%
1314°+0.4°72%
1414°+0.2°96%
1514°+0.2°100%
1613°+0.3°100%
1711°+0.7°100%
189°+0.6°100%
198°+0.4°100%
208°+0.6°100%
217°+0.6°100%
227°+0.5°100%
237°+0.4°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken2.2° below normal across 104 days (-2.8 to -1.7).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.1°68d
broken-2.2°104d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 4kt1.2° above normal across 41 days (+0.2 to +2.2).
coldernormalwarmer
NW+1.8°19d
W+1.2°41d
VARIABLE+0.6°52d
S-0.1°15d
SW-0.2°32d
SE-0.6°35d
E-0.9°23d
NE-1.4°29d
N-1.6°44d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 8°C 4°C 11°C 7°C 9°C
01:00 8°C 3°C 12°C 6°C 9°C
02:00 8°C 3°C 12°C 6°C 9°C
03:00 9°C 4°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
04:00 8°C 3°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
05:00 8°C 3°C 11°C 5°C 9°C
06:00 8°C 2°C 11°C 6°C 9°C
07:00 8°C 3°C 11°C 6°C 9°C
08:00 8°C 3°C 11°C 7°C 9°C
09:00 10°C 7°C 12°C 9°C 10°C
10:00 12°C 9°C 14°C 10°C 12°C
11:00 12°C 9°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
12:00 14°C 9°C 16°C 11°C 16°C
13:00 14°C 9°C 17°C 11°C 16°C
14:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 17°C
15:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 17°C
16:00 14°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 17°C
17:00 13°C 9°C 16°C 10°C 15°C
18:00 11°C 9°C 15°C 10°C 13°C
19:00 10°C 6°C 11°C 9°C 11°C
20:00 10°C 6°C 10°C 8°C 10°C
21:00 8°C 5°C 10°C 7°C 9°C
22:00 8°C 4°C 10°C 7°C 9°C
23:00 9°C 4°C 11°C 6°C 9°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 10°C —
11-08 12°C —
11-07 9°C —
11-06 11°C —
11-05 14°C —
11-04 11°C —
11-03 14°C —
11-02 16°C —
11-01 14°C —
10-31 17°C —
10-30 18°C —
10-29 18°C —
10-28 17°C —
10-27 17°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON10.5°12.5°0.53°most accurate here
UK Met Office10.0°13.5°0.61°
Environment Canada GEM9.8°11.7°0.74°
ECMWF IFS10.2°14.4°1.04°
NOAA GFS11.2°12.9°1.52°
JMA GSM10.6°10.0°2.43°
CMA GRAPES7.9°11.2°2.81°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.53°-0.07°91%
UK Met Office0.61°-0.22°86%
Environment Canada GEM0.74°-0.14°80%
ECMWF IFS1.04°-0.75°64%
NOAA GFS1.52°+1.02°36%
JMA GSM2.43°-2.43°20%
CMA GRAPES2.81°-2.81°5%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/20Z→10/24ZAMENDED
base09/20Z→10/24Zvariable 4kt; 3000m; mist; broken at 1,000ft
temporarily09/22Z→10/06Z1200m; light rain; broken at 400ft
temporarily40%10/06Z→10/09Z500m; fog; broken at 400ft
becoming10/10Z→10/12Z8000m; scattered at 2,000ft
TAF AMD LIMC 092056Z 0920/1024 VRB04KT 3000 BR BKN010 TEMPO 0922/1006 1200 -RA BKN004 PROB40 TEMPO 1006/1009 0500 FG BKN004 BECMG 1010/1012 8000 SCT020
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤5°C0%0%0/68
6°C0%0%0/68
7°C0%0%0/68
8°C0%0%0/68
9°C0%3%2/68
10°C100%4%3/68
11°C0%7%5/68
12°C0%9%6/68
13°C0%7%5/68
14°C0%13%9/68
≥15°C0%56%38/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
4°C
UUWW 2100Z
today high so far
4°C
at 00:00
forecast peak5°DWD ICON
typical further climb+1.7°
observed 00:00 local
usually warmestsunset 16:35
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-1°2°5°8°11°02:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:00ECMWF 4°CNOW 4°C
-1°2°5°8°11°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 4°CNOW 4°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR UUWW, 8 obs
METAR UUWW 092100Z 29005MPS 9999 BKN016 04/01 Q1021 R24/000062 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
00:00 4° 1° 290/10 BKN016 —
23:30 4° 1° 260/12 BKN015 —
23:00 4° 1° 270/12 BKN015 —
22:30 4° 1° 270/12 BKN016 —
22:00 5° 1° 290/12 BKN017 —
21:30 5° 1° 270/12 BKN018 —
21:00 5° 2° 270/12 BKN018 —
20:30 5° 2° 270/10 BKN017 —
current state
✓
METAR 4°C at 00:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (0°C–6°C) UUWW, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~5°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (1°C→1°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (4°C @ 00:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥6°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥6°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 4°C, current 4°C @ 00:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 3.0°C usual 0.0°C–6.0°C
typical 15:00 5.0°C usual 3.0°C–11.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
13°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high5.0°C
usual range3.0°C – 11.0°C
days ≥6°C6 / 14
days ≥7°C6 / 14
days ≥8°C6 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 70% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 70% of 79 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00+0.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:00)
implied peak~6°C (clim) vs ecmwf 4°C
heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
4° now at 00:00typically +1.7° more (p90 +5.0°)expected peak 6°peak already set on 34% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
003°+1.7°34%
013°+1.7°37%
022°+1.8°37%
032°+1.8°37%
042°+1.9°37%
052°+1.9°39%
062°+1.9°40%
072°+1.9°42%
082°+1.9°42%
092°+1.8°43%
102°+1.6°45%
113°+1.2°49%
123°+0.9°57%
133°+0.6°72%
143°+0.5°76%
153°+0.4°82%
163°+0.4°84%
173°+0.4°87%
183°+0.4°87%
193°+0.3°90%
203°+0.3°92%
213°+0.2°95%
223°+0.2°97%
233°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken1.4° below normal across 148 days (-2.1 to -0.7).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered-0.6°43d
broken-1.4°148d
overcast-0.9°103d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 10kt-0.7° across 52 days (-2.0 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.0°57d
SE+1.4°47d
SW+0.9°83d
W-0.7°52d
E-1.7°40d
NE-1.9°21d
NW-2.4°47d
N-2.8°29d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 3°C -1°C 8°C 0°C 6°C
01:00 4°C -1°C 6°C 0°C 5°C
02:00 3°C -1°C 6°C 0°C 5°C
03:00 3°C 0°C 5°C 1°C 4°C
04:00 3°C 0°C 5°C 1°C 4°C
05:00 2°C 0°C 4°C 1°C 4°C
06:00 2°C 0°C 4°C 1°C 3°C
07:00 1°C -1°C 4°C 1°C 3°C
08:00 1°C -1°C 4°C 1°C 3°C
09:00 2°C -1°C 6°C 1°C 4°C
10:00 4°C 0°C 8°C 1°C 5°C
11:00 5°C 0°C 9°C 1°C 7°C
12:00 5°C 0°C 11°C 2°C 9°C
13:00 5°C 0°C 12°C 2°C 10°C
14:00 5°C 1°C 13°C 2°C 11°C
15:00 5°C 1°C 13°C 2°C 10°C
16:00 5°C 1°C 13°C 2°C 10°C
17:00 4°C 0°C 11°C 2°C 8°C
18:00 3°C 0°C 11°C 2°C 8°C
19:00 3°C 0°C 10°C 2°C 7°C
20:00 3°C 0°C 10°C 1°C 7°C
21:00 3°C 0°C 9°C 1°C 7°C
22:00 3°C 0°C 8°C 0°C 6°C
23:00 3°C 0°C 8°C 0°C 6°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 5°C —
11-08 4°C —
11-07 1°C —
11-06 2°C —
11-05 5°C —
11-04 3°C —
11-03 3°C —
11-02 3°C —
11-01 10°C —
10-31 10°C —
10-30 13°C —
10-29 13°C —
10-28 13°C —
10-27 12°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON4.8°3.5°0.64°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM2.9°2.4°0.70°
ECMWF IFS4.4°4.1°0.72°
UK Met Office3.9°2.0°0.81°
JMA GSM3.6°2.1°0.83°
CMA GRAPES0.9°-1.3°0.86°
NOAA GFS4.7°3.6°0.93°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.64°-0.22°78%
Environment Canada GEM0.70°+0.27°78%
ECMWF IFS0.72°+0.02°75%
UK Met Office0.81°+0.45°71%
JMA GSM0.83°-0.21°67%
CMA GRAPES0.86°-0.43°63%
NOAA GFS0.93°-0.03°72%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/21Z
forecast max5°at 10/12Zmin 3°issued by the national met service
base09/21Z→10/21Z260° 5mps; 10km+; broken at 1,600ft
becoming10/13Z→10/16Z200° 5mps
TAF UUWW 092006Z 0921/1021 26005MPS 9999 BKN016 TX05/1012Z TN03/1003Z BECMG 1013/1016 20005MPS
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤-2°C0%6%4/67
-1°C0%3%2/67
0°C0%13%9/67
1°C0%4%3/67
2°C0%6%4/67
3°C0%9%6/67
4°C58%7%5/67
5°C40%10%7/67
6°C4%7%5/67
7°C1%6%4/67
≥8°C0%27%18/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
4°C
EDDM 2120Z
today high so far
5°C
at 13:50
peakalready set
left to climb+0.3°
observed 22:20 local
usually warmestsunset 16:42
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-3°0°3°6°9°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 8°CNOW 4°C
-3°0°3°6°9°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 8°CNOW 4°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR EDDM, 8 obs
METAR EDDM 092120Z AUTO 07004KT 040V100 6000 FEW003 04/04 Q1015 TEMPO 4000 -RADZ BR BKN004
local temp dew wind cloud wx
22:20 4° 4° 070/04 BKN004 BR
21:50 4° 4° 070/03 BKN004 -RA BR
21:20 4° 4° 080/04 BKN004 BR
20:50 4° 4° 070/04 BKN046 BR
20:20 4° 4° 090/05 FEW046 RA
19:50 5° 4° 100/04 BKN049 -RA RA
19:20 5° 4° 060/04 BKN043 -RA RA
18:50 5° 4° 070/04 BKN034 -RA RA
current state
✓
METAR 4°C at 22:20 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (3°C–6°C) EDDM, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 5°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (4°C→4°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 8°C, current 4°C @ 22:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 5.0°C usual 3.0°C–6.0°C
typical 14:00 8.0°C usual 7.0°C–10.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d high, 2026 10 27
avg high8.0°C
usual range7.0°C – 10.0°C
days ≥9°C6 / 14
days ≥10°C5 / 14
days ≥11°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 68% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 68% of 122 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 18:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 8°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
4° now at 22:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
004°+5.4°9%
014°+5.4°10%
024°+5.6°10%
034°+5.7°10%
044°+5.6°10%
054°+5.6°10%
064°+5.6°10%
074°+5.4°10%
085°+4.7°10%
096°+3.6°10%
107°+2.7°16%
118°+1.7°31%
128°+1.1°49%
139°+0.6°72%
149°+0.2°93%
159°+0.3°97%
168°+0.4°97%
177°+0.4°97%
186°+0.4°97%
195°+0.4°99%
205°+0.4°99%
215°+0.4°100%
224°+0.3°100%
234°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken2.0° below normal across 78 days (-2.7 to -1.2).
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.2°25d
scattered-1.6°61d
broken-2.0°78d
overcast-3.2°49d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 4kt-0.2° across 80 days (-1.2 to +0.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+1.6°18d
SW+1.2°37d
SE+0.6°13d
W-0.2°130d
E-0.2°80d
NE-0.3°25d
NW-1.7°20d
N-2.9°11d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 4°C -1°C 6°C 2°C 5°C
01:00 4°C -1°C 6°C 3°C 5°C
02:00 3°C -2°C 6°C 2°C 4°C
03:00 3°C -2°C 6°C 2°C 5°C
04:00 3°C 0°C 7°C 2°C 5°C
05:00 4°C 0°C 7°C 2°C 5°C
06:00 4°C -1°C 7°C 2°C 5°C
07:00 4°C 0°C 7°C 2°C 5°C
08:00 4°C 0°C 8°C 3°C 5°C
09:00 5°C 2°C 9°C 3°C 5°C
10:00 5°C 2°C 11°C 5°C 6°C
11:00 6°C 2°C 13°C 5°C 8°C
12:00 8°C 3°C 15°C 6°C 9°C
13:00 8°C 3°C 16°C 7°C 10°C
14:00 8°C 3°C 16°C 7°C 10°C
15:00 8°C 3°C 16°C 6°C 10°C
16:00 8°C 3°C 16°C 6°C 9°C
17:00 7°C 3°C 14°C 6°C 8°C
18:00 6°C 3°C 12°C 5°C 7°C
19:00 6°C 3°C 10°C 4°C 7°C
20:00 5°C 2°C 10°C 4°C 6°C
21:00 5°C 1°C 9°C 3°C 7°C
22:00 5°C 1°C 7°C 3°C 6°C
23:00 5°C -1°C 6°C 3°C 5°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 5°C —
11-08 8°C —
11-07 7°C —
11-06 4°C —
11-05 10°C —
11-04 7°C —
11-03 6°C —
11-02 7°C —
11-01 8°C —
10-31 9°C —
10-30 11°C —
10-29 10°C —
10-28 12°C —
10-27 16°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON5.5°8.1°0.57°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM7.3°9.4°1.00°
UK Met Office6.2°8.9°1.25°
NOAA GFS10.2°8.8°1.67°
ECMWF IFS6.5°8.2°1.94°
CMA GRAPES6.5°9.4°2.30°
JMA GSM6.8°10.2°3.04°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.57°-0.14°86%
Environment Canada GEM1.00°-0.53°61%
UK Met Office1.25°-0.96°41%
NOAA GFS1.67°-1.35°26%
ECMWF IFS1.94°-1.87°18%
CMA GRAPES2.30°-2.13°14%
JMA GSM3.04°-2.89°7%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24ZAMENDED
base09/18Z→10/24Z100° 5kt; 7000m; broken at 3,000ft
temporarily30%09/18Z→09/21Z4000m; rain; broken at 300ft
temporarily30%09/21Z→10/02Z2500m; light rain; mist
becoming10/02Z→10/05Zvariable 3kt; 4500m; rain drizzle; scattered at 300ft; broken at 1,200ft
temporarily10/06Z→10/11Z330° 5kt; 2500m; drizzle; overcast at 300ft
becoming10/11Z→10/14Z090° 5kt; 8000m; overcast at 800ft
temporarily30%10/18Z→10/24Z2500m; light drizzle; mist; overcast at 400ft
TAF COR EDDM 091755Z 0918/1024 10005KT 7000 BKN030 PROB30 TEMPO 0918/0921 4000 RA BKN003 PROB30 TEMPO 0921/1002 2500 -RA BR BECMG 1002/1005 VRB03KT 4500 RADZ SCT003 BKN012 TEMPO 1006/1011 33005KT 2500 DZ OVC003 BECMG 1011/1014 09005KT 8000 NSW OVC008 PROB30 TEMPO 1018/1024 2500 -DZ BR OVC004
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤2°C0%1%1/68
3°C0%1%1/68
4°C0%6%4/68
5°C94%6%4/68
6°C3%7%5/68
7°C2%7%5/68
8°C0%9%6/68
9°C0%9%6/68
10°C0%9%6/68
11°C0%12%8/68
≥12°C0%32%22/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.

New York

15:51 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
58°F
KLGA 2051Z
today high so far
58°F
at 11:51
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 15:51 local
usually warmestsunset 16:43
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
29°37°45°53°61°69°18:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:00ECMWF 57°FNOW 58°F
29°37°45°53°61°69°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 57°FNOW 58°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KLGA, 8 obs
METAR KLGA 092051Z 32018G27KT 10SM FEW045 SCT055 BKN070 14/03 A2986 RMK AO2 PK WND 31034/2028 SLP111 VIRGA NE T01440033 53024 $
local temp dew wind cloud wx
15:51 58° 38° 320/18 BKN070 —
14:51 58° 39° 310/16 BKN070 —
13:51 58° 40° 320/19 BKN070 —
12:51 58° 39° 300/21 BKN060 —
11:51 58° 40° 300/17 BKN050 —
10:51 57° 41° 300/18 BKN047 —
09:51 55° 38° 260/11 BKN100 —
08:51 55° 37° 260/17 BKN100 —
current state
▼
METAR 58°F at 15:51 local, -8.1°F vs 14d-median (66°F this hour) KLGA, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 58°F climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (39°F→38°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -8.1°F behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 57°F, current 58°F @ 15:51
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 66.0°F usual 60.1°F–69.1°F
typical 14:00 66.9°F usual 61.0°F–70.0°F
noon → peak climb +3.6°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
72°F
14d high, 2026 11 04
avg high66.9°F
usual range61.0°F – 70.0°F
days ≥68°F6 / 14
days ≥69°F4 / 14
days ≥70°F4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 57% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 57% of 118 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+1.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-1.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-2.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-3.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-3.5°F mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:0058°F
implied peak62°F vs ecmwf 57°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
58° now at 16:00peak already set on 94% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0053°+7.9°12%
0152°+8.3°12%
0252°+8.7°12%
0351°+9.1°12%
0451°+9.3°12%
0551°+9.5°12%
0651°+9.5°15%
0752°+8.6°15%
0853°+7.1°15%
0955°+5.6°18%
1056°+4.1°22%
1157°+2.9°22%
1258°+1.7°36%
1359°+0.7°55%
1459°+0.3°82%
1559°+0.1°94%
1658°+0.2°94%
1757°+0.2°97%
1856°+0.3°97%
1955°+0.3°99%
2055°+0.2°98%
2154°+0.1°99%
2253°+0.1°99%
2353°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken+0.1° across 142 days (-0.9 to +1.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.3°77d
scattered+0.1°93d
broken+0.1°142d
overcast-3.0°67d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 18kt-0.1° across 79 days (-1.5 to +1.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+3.9°35d
SW+3.0°44d
VARIABLE+1.9°15d
SE+1.3°11d
E+1.1°15d
W+0.6°45d
NW-0.1°79d
N-1.1°39d
NE-3.3°96d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 58°F 51°F 67°F 54°F 62°F
01:00 57°F 51°F 68°F 53°F 62°F
02:00 57°F 50°F 66°F 53°F 61°F
03:00 56°F 49°F 66°F 53°F 60°F
04:00 55°F 48°F 67°F 53°F 59°F
05:00 55°F 47°F 68°F 52°F 60°F
06:00 55°F 47°F 68°F 52°F 59°F
07:00 54°F 48°F 68°F 52°F 58°F
08:00 56°F 48°F 67°F 54°F 60°F
09:00 59°F 50°F 69°F 55°F 64°F
10:00 61°F 51°F 70°F 55°F 62°F
11:00 63°F 53°F 70°F 57°F 67°F
12:00 64°F 55°F 72°F 58°F 67°F
13:00 66°F 56°F 72°F 59°F 67°F
14:00 67°F 57°F 70°F 60°F 69°F
15:00 66°F 58°F 71°F 60°F 69°F
16:00 65°F 57°F 71°F 60°F 68°F
17:00 63°F 56°F 71°F 60°F 66°F
18:00 61°F 55°F 70°F 59°F 64°F
19:00 61°F 54°F 70°F 58°F 64°F
20:00 61°F 53°F 68°F 57°F 64°F
21:00 60°F 53°F 68°F 56°F 64°F
22:00 59°F 51°F 67°F 56°F 64°F
23:00 58°F 51°F 68°F 55°F 62°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 57°F —
11-08 61°F —
11-07 62°F —
11-06 68°F —
11-05 70°F —
11-04 72°F —
11-03 70°F —
11-02 67°F —
11-01 60°F —
10-31 60°F —
10-30 70°F —
10-29 68°F —
10-28 62°F —
10-27 63°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
Environment Canada GEM59.2°61.0°1.48°most accurate here
DWD ICON59.2°61.7°1.51°
NOAA GFS57.9°60.8°1.58°
ECMWF IFS57.4°58.3°1.82°
JMA GSM55.4°58.1°1.83°
UK Met Office56.7°57.9°1.87°
CMA GRAPES56.5°56.7°2.84°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
Environment Canada GEM1.48°+0.10°75%
DWD ICON1.51°+0.48°78%
NOAA GFS1.58°+1.22°75%
ECMWF IFS1.82°-0.12°62%
JMA GSM1.83°-0.38°55%
UK Met Office1.87°+1.01°67%
CMA GRAPES2.84°-2.15°37%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z300° 19kt gusting 27; >6 statute miles; scattered at 6,000ft
from09/23Z onwards300° 14kt gusting 21; >6 statute miles; scattered at 7,000ft
from10/03Z onwards300° 12kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 20,000ft
from10/09Z onwards280° 9kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 20,000ft
from10/15Z onwards260° 12kt gusting 20; >6 statute miles; scattered at 20,000ft
from10/18Z onwards250° 16kt gusting 25; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
TAF KLGA 092037Z 0921/1024 30019G27KT P6SM SCT060 FM092300 30014G21KT P6SM SCT070 FM100300 30012KT P6SM SCT200 FM100900 28009KT P6SM BKN200 FM101500 26012G20KT P6SM SCT200 FM101800 25016G25KT P6SM SKC
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤49°F0%9%6/68
50-51°F0%10%7/68
52-53°F0%4%3/68
54-55°F0%9%6/68
56-57°F0%6%4/68
58-59°F99%10%7/68
60-61°F1%12%8/68
62-63°F0%1%1/68
64-65°F0%6%4/68
66-67°F0%7%5/68
≥68°F0%25%17/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Panama City

16:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
30°C
MPMG 2100Z
today high so far
32°C
at 11:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 16:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:55
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
23°25°27°29°31°33°18:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 30°C
23°25°27°29°31°33°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 31°CNOW 30°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR MPMG, 8 obs
METAR MPMG 092100Z 31007KT 9999 SCT017CB 30/27 Q1009 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
16:00 30° 27° 310/07 SCT017CB —
15:30 30° 27° 300/04 SCT016CB —
15:00 28° 27° 270/04 SCT016CB -RA TSRA
14:00 28° 26° 200/03 SCT016CB -TSRA
13:07 29° 25° 030/07 BKN014CB +TSRA
13:00 32° 26° — SCT017CB -RA TS
12:00 32° 25° 110/03 SCT018CB —
11:00 32° 25° 340/07 SCT018CB —
current state
?
No live METAR — climatology shown without observation context MPMG
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 32°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (27°C→27°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median — usual —–—
typical 13:00 — usual —–—
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
32°C
14d high, 2026 11 09
avg high—
usual range—
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 72% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 72% of 134 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00-0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=65
12:00 → 18:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0032°C
implied peak— vs ecmwf 31°C
heating passport climb to peak 63 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
30° now at 16:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0026°+3.9°0%
0126°+4.0°0%
0225°+4.2°0%
0325°+4.4°0%
0425°+4.4°0%
0525°+4.4°0%
0625°+4.5°0%
0725°+4.2°0%
0826°+3.3°0%
0927°+2.4°3%
1028°+1.6°16%
1129°+1.1°37%
1229°+0.6°59%
1329°+0.3°86%
1429°+0.3°97%
1528°+0.2°98%
1628°+0.1°100%
1727°+0.1°100%
1827°+0.1°100%
1927°+0.1°100%
2026°+0.1°100%
2126°+0.1°100%
2226°+0.0°100%
2326°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowscattered0.2° above normal across 366 days (+0.0 to +0.3).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.2°366d
broken-1.4°55d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 7kt0.6° above normal across 122 days (+0.4 to +0.8).
coldernormalwarmer
NW+0.6°122d
VARIABLE+0.5°55d
E+0.4°10d
SE-0.3°69d
W-0.5°30d
S-0.5°118d
SW-1.0°10d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 — — — — —
01:00 — — — — —
02:00 — — — — —
03:00 — — — — —
04:00 — — — — —
05:00 — — — — —
06:00 — — — — —
07:00 — — — — —
08:00 — — — — —
09:00 — — — — —
10:00 — — — — —
11:00 32°C 32°C 32°C 32°C 32°C
12:00 32°C 32°C 32°C 32°C 32°C
13:00 — — — — —
14:00 — — — — —
15:00 — — — — —
16:00 — — — — —
17:00 — — — — —
18:00 — — — — —
19:00 — — — — —
20:00 — — — — —
21:00 — — — — —
22:00 — — — — —
23:00 — — — — —
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 32°C —
11-08 31°C —
11-07 28°C —
11-06 30°C —
11-05 31°C —
11-04 30°C —
11-03 31°C —
11-02 31°C —
11-01 31°C —
10-31 32°C —
10-30 30°C —
10-29 32°C —
10-28 30°C —
10-27 29°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.7°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
CMA GRAPES32.9°32.7°—
ECMWF IFS31.9°31.4°—
Environment Canada GEM33.1°33.0°—
NOAA GFS33.2°32.6°—
DWD ICON31.3°33.8°—
JMA GSM30.5°30.1°—
UK Met Office32.8°32.2°—
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/06ZAMENDED
base09/18Z→10/06Z330° 8kt; 10km+; scattered at 1,800ft
possibly30%09/18Z→09/22Z040° 8kt; 6000m; thunderstorm rain; scattered at 1,600ft (CB); scattered at 9,000ft
temporarily10/02Z→10/06Zvariable 2kt
TAF COR MPMG 091700Z 0918/1006 33008KT 9999 SCT018 PROB30 0918/0922 04008KT 6000 TSRA SCT016CB SCT090 TEMPO 1002/1006 VRB02KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤25°C0%0%0/68
26°C0%1%1/68
27°C0%7%5/68
28°C0%12%8/68
29°C0%26%18/68
30°C0%22%15/68
31°C0%21%14/68
32°C100%3%2/68
33°C0%7%5/68
34°C0%0%0/68
≥35°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
8°C
LFPB 2100Z
today high so far
9°C
at 13:30
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 22:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:18
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°5°8°11°14°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 10°CNOW 8°C
2°5°8°11°14°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 10°CNOW 8°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LFPB, 8 obs
METAR LFPB 092100Z AUTO 04007KT 6000 -RA FEW009/// OVC096/// ///TCU 08/07 Q1012 TEMPO 4000 -RA BKN006
local temp dew wind cloud wx
22:00 8° 7° 040/07 OVC096 -RA -RA
21:30 8° 7° 030/05 OVC100 -RA
21:00 8° 7° 020/04 OVC090 -RA
20:30 8° 7° 030/04 OVC080 -RA
20:00 8° 7° 050/06 OVC076 -RA
19:30 8° 7° 040/07 OVC110 -RA
19:00 8° 6° 040/08 OVC100 -RA
18:30 8° 6° 040/08 NSC -RA -RA
current state
✓
METAR 8°C at 22:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (7°C–10°C) LFPB, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 9°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (7°C→7°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 10°C, current 8°C @ 22:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 9.0°C usual 7.0°C–10.0°C
typical 15:00 13.0°C usual 10.0°C–16.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high13.0°C
usual range10.0°C – 16.0°C
days ≥14°C5 / 14
days ≥15°C5 / 14
days ≥16°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 58% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 58% of 123 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 18:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 10°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
8° now at 22:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+3.3°9%
0110°+3.6°9%
029°+3.9°9%
039°+4.1°9%
049°+4.2°9%
059°+4.3°10%
069°+4.4°10%
079°+4.4°10%
089°+4.3°10%
099°+3.7°10%
1010°+2.9°12%
1111°+2.2°19%
1212°+1.4°31%
1312°+0.8°54%
1413°+0.5°84%
1513°+0.2°97%
1612°+0.2°99%
1712°+0.3°99%
1811°+0.3°99%
1911°+0.3°100%
2011°+0.2°100%
2110°+0.3°100%
2210°+0.1°100%
2310°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast1.5° below normal across 115 days (-2.0 to -1.0).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.3°20d
broken-0.5°108d
overcast-1.5°115d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 7kt-0.3° across 28 days (-1.5 to +0.9) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SE+2.1°49d
S+1.4°80d
NE-0.3°28d
E-0.4°31d
SW-0.5°87d
NW-1.1°19d
W-1.1°37d
N-2.9°27d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 8°C 5°C 15°C 6°C 9°C
01:00 8°C 4°C 15°C 6°C 8°C
02:00 7°C 3°C 15°C 6°C 8°C
03:00 7°C 3°C 15°C 5°C 8°C
04:00 6°C 2°C 15°C 5°C 7°C
05:00 6°C 2°C 15°C 5°C 7°C
06:00 6°C 1°C 15°C 5°C 7°C
07:00 6°C 2°C 14°C 5°C 6°C
08:00 6°C 3°C 13°C 5°C 6°C
09:00 7°C 3°C 14°C 5°C 8°C
10:00 9°C 3°C 15°C 6°C 9°C
11:00 10°C 4°C 15°C 7°C 11°C
12:00 12°C 5°C 15°C 8°C 12°C
13:00 11°C 5°C 15°C 9°C 14°C
14:00 11°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
15:00 13°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
16:00 13°C 6°C 15°C 9°C 15°C
17:00 11°C 6°C 14°C 9°C 13°C
18:00 10°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 13°C
19:00 9°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 11°C
20:00 10°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 10°C
21:00 9°C 6°C 13°C 7°C 10°C
22:00 9°C 7°C 14°C 7°C 10°C
23:00 8°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 9°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 9°C —
11-08 7°C —
11-07 10°C —
11-06 13°C —
11-05 11°C —
11-04 9°C —
11-03 10°C —
11-02 12°C —
11-01 13°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 16°C —
10-29 16°C —
10-28 16°C —
10-27 16°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON9.1°13.4°0.38°most accurate here
UK Met Office9.6°13.2°0.44°
Environment Canada GEM10.1°13.6°0.79°
NOAA GFS10.1°12.6°0.88°
ECMWF IFS8.7°12.4°0.99°
JMA GSM9.4°13.8°1.73°
CMA GRAPES11.1°13.0°2.72°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.38°-0.13°99%
UK Met Office0.44°-0.12°96%
Environment Canada GEM0.79°-0.55°71%
NOAA GFS0.88°+0.41°67%
ECMWF IFS0.99°-0.96°61%
JMA GSM1.73°-1.73°33%
CMA GRAPES2.72°-2.70°5%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
base09/18Z→10/18Z040° 8kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
temporarily09/18Z→10/18Z4000m; light rain
temporarily40%09/19Z→09/24Zbroken at 600ft
becoming10/00Z→10/02Zbroken at 600ft
temporarily10/11Z→10/18Z1500m; light rain drizzle; broken at 200ft
TAF LFPB 091700Z 0918/1018 04008KT CAVOK TEMPO 0918/1018 4000 -RA PROB40 TEMPO 0919/0924 BKN006 BECMG 1000/1002 BKN006 TEMPO 1011/1018 1500 -RADZ BKN002
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤6°C0%0%0/68
7°C0%1%1/68
8°C0%0%0/68
9°C99%6%4/68
10°C0%7%5/68
11°C0%7%5/68
12°C0%16%11/68
13°C0%22%15/68
14°C0%13%9/68
15°C0%9%6/68
≥16°C0%18%12/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
8°C
LFPB 2100Z
today low so far
4°C
at 01:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.1°
observed 22:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:18
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°5°8°11°14°17°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 4°CNOW 8°C
2°5°8°11°14°17°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 4°CNOW 8°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LFPB, 8 obs
METAR LFPB 092100Z AUTO 04007KT 6000 -RA FEW009/// OVC096/// ///TCU 08/07 Q1012 TEMPO 4000 -RA BKN006
local temp dew wind cloud wx
22:00 8° 7° 040/07 OVC096 -RA -RA
21:30 8° 7° 030/05 OVC100 -RA
21:00 8° 7° 020/04 OVC090 -RA
20:30 8° 7° 030/04 OVC080 -RA
20:00 8° 7° 050/06 OVC076 -RA
19:30 8° 7° 040/07 OVC110 -RA
19:00 8° 6° 040/08 OVC100 -RA
18:30 8° 6° 040/08 NSC -RA -RA
current state
✓
METAR 8°C at 22:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (7°C–10°C) LFPB, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 15:00 has passed — today's minimum so far is 4°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (7°C→7°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 4°C, current 8°C @ 22:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 9.0°C usual 7.0°C–10.0°C
typical 15:00 13.0°C usual 10.0°C–16.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
how cold it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d low, 2026 10 30
avg high13.0°C
usual range10.0°C – 16.0°C
days ≥14°C5 / 14
days ≥15°C5 / 14
days ≥16°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 58% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 58% of 123 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 18:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 4°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
8° now at 22:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.1° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+3.3°9%
0110°+3.6°9%
029°+3.9°9%
039°+4.1°9%
049°+4.2°9%
059°+4.3°10%
069°+4.4°10%
079°+4.4°10%
089°+4.3°10%
099°+3.7°10%
1010°+2.9°12%
1111°+2.2°19%
1212°+1.4°31%
1312°+0.8°54%
1413°+0.5°84%
1513°+0.2°97%
1612°+0.2°99%
1712°+0.3°99%
1811°+0.3°99%
1911°+0.3°100%
2011°+0.2°100%
2110°+0.3°100%
2210°+0.1°100%
2310°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast1.5° below normal across 115 days (-2.0 to -1.0).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.3°20d
broken-0.5°108d
overcast-1.5°115d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 7kt-0.3° across 28 days (-1.5 to +0.9) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SE+2.1°49d
S+1.4°80d
NE-0.3°28d
E-0.4°31d
SW-0.5°87d
NW-1.1°19d
W-1.1°37d
N-2.9°27d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 8°C 5°C 15°C 6°C 9°C
01:00 8°C 4°C 15°C 6°C 8°C
02:00 7°C 3°C 15°C 6°C 8°C
03:00 7°C 3°C 15°C 5°C 8°C
04:00 6°C 2°C 15°C 5°C 7°C
05:00 6°C 2°C 15°C 5°C 7°C
06:00 6°C 1°C 15°C 5°C 7°C
07:00 6°C 2°C 14°C 5°C 6°C
08:00 6°C 3°C 13°C 5°C 6°C
09:00 7°C 3°C 14°C 5°C 8°C
10:00 9°C 3°C 14°C 6°C 9°C
11:00 10°C 4°C 15°C 7°C 11°C
12:00 12°C 5°C 15°C 8°C 13°C
13:00 11°C 5°C 15°C 9°C 14°C
14:00 11°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
15:00 13°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 16°C
16:00 13°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
17:00 11°C 6°C 14°C 9°C 14°C
18:00 10°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 13°C
19:00 9°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 11°C
20:00 10°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 10°C
21:00 9°C 6°C 13°C 7°C 10°C
22:00 9°C 6°C 14°C 7°C 10°C
23:00 8°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 9°C
observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 9°C —
11-08 7°C —
11-07 10°C —
11-06 13°C —
11-05 11°C —
11-04 9°C —
11-03 10°C —
11-02 12°C —
11-01 13°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 16°C —
10-29 16°C —
10-28 16°C —
10-27 16°C —
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON3.7°7.9°0.38°most accurate here
UK Met Office5.6°8.6°0.44°
Environment Canada GEM0.8°6.9°0.79°
NOAA GFS4.5°9.7°0.88°
ECMWF IFS3.8°7.5°0.99°
JMA GSM4.7°9.1°1.73°
CMA GRAPES5.1°9.4°2.72°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.38°-0.13°99%
UK Met Office0.44°-0.12°96%
Environment Canada GEM0.79°-0.55°71%
NOAA GFS0.88°+0.41°67%
ECMWF IFS0.99°-0.96°61%
JMA GSM1.73°-1.73°33%
CMA GRAPES2.72°-2.70°5%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
base09/18Z→10/18Z040° 8kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
temporarily09/18Z→10/18Z4000m; light rain
temporarily40%09/19Z→09/24Zbroken at 600ft
becoming10/00Z→10/02Zbroken at 600ft
temporarily10/11Z→10/18Z1500m; light rain drizzle; broken at 200ft
TAF LFPB 091700Z 0918/1018 04008KT CAVOK TEMPO 0918/1018 4000 -RA PROB40 TEMPO 0919/0924 BKN006 BECMG 1000/1002 BKN006 TEMPO 1011/1018 1500 -RADZ BKN002
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤-2°C0%0%0/68
-1°C0%0%0/68
0°C0%0%0/68
1°C0%1%1/68
2°C0%0%0/68
3°C0%0%0/68
4°C100%7%5/68
5°C0%9%6/68
6°C0%15%10/68
7°C0%16%11/68
≥8°C0%51%35/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
0°C
ZSQD 2100Z
today high so far
3°C
at 00:00
forecast peak15°ECMWF IFS
climatology alone suggests8°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+8.2°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 16:55
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-4°1°6°11°16°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 14°CNOW 0°C
-4°1°6°11°16°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 14°CNOW 0°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZSQD, 8 obs
METAR ZSQD 092100Z 23001MPS CAVOK 00/M02 Q1031 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 0° -2° 230/02 CAVOK —
04:00 1° -2° — CAVOK —
03:00 2° -3° 240/04 CAVOK —
02:00 2° -2° 250/06 CAVOK —
01:00 3° -2° 250/04 CAVOK —
00:00 3° -3° — CAVOK —
23:00 4° -2° 260/06 CAVOK —
22:00 4° -2° 280/06 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 0°C at 05:00 local, -9.0°C vs 14d-median (9°C this hour) ZSQD, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~1°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.3°C/h, dewpoint falling (-2°C→-2°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (0°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥20°C possible 14d records show 3/14 days reached ≥20°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -9.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 14°C, current 0°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 9.0°C usual 7.0°C–12.0°C
typical 13:00 19.0°C usual 15.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
23°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high19.0°C
usual range15.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥20°C3 / 14
days ≥21°C1 / 14
days ≥22°C1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 72% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 72% of 132 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~18°C (clim) vs ecmwf 14°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
0° now at 05:00typically +8.2° more (p90 +13.0°)expected peak 8°peak already set on 7% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
009°+6.7°7%
019°+7.1°6%
029°+7.3°7%
038°+7.7°7%
048°+8.0°7%
058°+8.2°7%
068°+8.4°7%
078°+8.3°7%
0810°+6.5°7%
0912°+4.6°9%
1013°+2.7°15%
1114°+1.6°30%
1215°+0.8°52%
1316°+0.3°76%
1416°+0.1°88%
1515°+0.0°100%
1615°+0.0°100%
1713°+0.0°100%
1812°+0.2°100%
1911°+0.1°100%
2011°+0.1°100%
2110°+0.1°100%
2210°+0.1°100%
239°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear2.8° above normal across 22 days (+1.7 to +3.9).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+2.8°22d
few+0.1°37d
scattered-0.2°68d
broken-0.9°38d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 2kt+2.1° across 10 days (-1.3 to +5.5) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
W+2.7°20d
S+2.3°61d
SW+2.1°10d
SE+1.9°31d
E+1.1°15d
NE-0.2°44d
VARIABLE-0.7°15d
N-1.5°77d
NW-1.8°83d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 12°C 3°C 15°C 9°C 13°C
01:00 10°C 3°C 15°C 9°C 12°C
02:00 10°C 4°C 16°C 8°C 12°C
03:00 10°C 4°C 13°C 8°C 12°C
04:00 9°C 4°C 13°C 7°C 12°C
05:00 9°C 4°C 13°C 7°C 12°C
06:00 9°C 3°C 12°C 7°C 12°C
07:00 10°C 5°C 13°C 7°C 12°C
08:00 11°C 5°C 13°C 10°C 12°C
09:00 13°C 6°C 17°C 12°C 14°C
10:00 14°C 8°C 20°C 13°C 16°C
11:00 15°C 9°C 20°C 14°C 17°C
12:00 17°C 9°C 21°C 15°C 18°C
13:00 18°C 9°C 22°C 15°C 19°C
14:00 19°C 9°C 23°C 15°C 19°C
15:00 18°C 9°C 23°C 15°C 19°C
16:00 17°C 9°C 22°C 15°C 19°C
17:00 15°C 8°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
18:00 14°C 7°C 16°C 12°C 15°C
19:00 13°C 6°C 16°C 11°C 14°C
20:00 12°C 6°C 15°C 11°C 13°C
21:00 12°C 5°C 17°C 11°C 13°C
22:00 11°C 4°C 15°C 11°C 13°C
23:00 12°C 4°C 15°C 10°C 13°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 3°C —
11-09 9°C —
11-08 15°C —
11-07 16°C —
11-06 13°C —
11-05 19°C —
11-04 20°C —
11-03 20°C —
11-02 19°C —
11-01 15°C —
10-31 19°C —
10-30 23°C —
10-29 18°C —
10-28 19°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
ECMWF IFS15.1°15.3°0.92°most accurate here
UK Met Office13.3°14.6°0.96°
DWD ICON13.0°15.0°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM14.6°15.9°1.11°
NOAA GFS14.3°15.3°1.16°
JMA GSM15.1°17.4°1.24°
CMA GRAPES12.1°13.3°1.46°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
ECMWF IFS0.92°-0.42°66%
UK Met Office0.96°+0.42°66%
DWD ICON1.09°-0.58°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.11°-0.32°57%
NOAA GFS1.16°+0.49°50%
JMA GSM1.24°-0.35°50%
CMA GRAPES1.46°-1.05°36%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
forecast max15°at 10/06Zmin -1°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Z240° 3mps; 6000m; no significant cloud
TAF ZSQD 091501Z 0918/1018 24003MPS 6000 NSC TX15/1006Z TNM01/0921Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤10°C0%15%10/68
11°C0%3%2/68
12°C0%1%1/68
13°C0%6%4/68
14°C4%3%2/68
15°C34%7%5/68
16°C56%10%7/68
17°C9%7%5/68
18°C1%15%10/68
19°C0%16%11/68
≥20°C0%16%11/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

San Francisco

12:56 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
63°F
KSFO 2056Z
today high so far
63°F
at 12:56
peakalready set
left to climb+1.2°
observed 12:56 local
usually warmestsunset 17:03
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
50°54°58°62°66°70°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 69°FNOW 63°F
50°54°58°62°66°70°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 69°FNOW 63°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KSFO, 8 obs
METAR KSFO 092056Z COR 29013KT 10SM FEW001 BKN120 17/16 A3009 RMK AO2 SLP190 VIS SE 2 T01720156 58013
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:56 63° 60° 290/13 BKN120 —
12:48 61° 59° 320/05 BKN120 BR
11:56 58° 58° 030/04 BKN120 BR
11:42 58° 58° 040/03 BKN120 BR
11:27 58° 58° 030/03 BKN120 BR
10:56 57° 57° 000/00 BKN002 BR
10:46 57° 57° 000/00 BKN002 FG
10:30 57° 56° 050/03 BKN002 BR
current state
✓
METAR 63°F at 12:56 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (61°F–63°F) KSFO, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +3.4°F (n=14) — projects to ~66°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +3.4°F/h, dewpoint rising (59°F→60°F) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (63°F @ 12:56) with climatology suggests peak ≥68°F possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥68°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (-0.0°F) ECMWF ens-mean 69°F
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 63.0°F usual 61.0°F–63.0°F
typical 14:00 66.9°F usual 64.9°F–69.1°F
noon → peak climb +3.4°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
71°F
14d high, 2026 11 07
avg high66.9°F
usual range64.9°F – 69.1°F
days ≥68°F5 / 14
days ≥69°F5 / 14
days ≥70°F2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 71% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 71% of 136 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+1.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-1.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-3.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-4.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-4.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-5.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0063°F
implied peak66°F vs ecmwf 69°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
63° now at 13:00peak already set on 58% of days by nowtypically only +1.2° left (p90 +3.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0056°+9.8°4%
0155°+10.9°4%
0255°+11.3°4%
0354°+12.0°4%
0454°+12.5°4%
0553°+12.7°4%
0654°+12.2°4%
0756°+10.4°4%
0858°+7.9°3%
0960°+6.4°3%
1061°+5.1°3%
1162°+3.8°9%
1264°+2.3°31%
1365°+1.2°58%
1465°+0.2°87%
1564°+0.1°97%
1662°+0.1°100%
1760°+0.4°100%
1860°+0.4°100%
1959°+0.4°100%
2058°+0.4°100%
2158°+0.4°100%
2257°+0.3°100%
2357°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken1.5° below normal across 113 days (-2.3 to -0.7).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+7.3°45d
few-0.0°128d
scattered-1.3°85d
broken-1.5°113d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 13kt3.4° below normal across 66 days (-3.9 to -2.9).
coldernormalwarmer
N+4.8°39d
CALM+3.9°32d
NE+3.1°26d
VARIABLE+0.4°27d
S-0.0°12d
NW-0.6°143d
E-1.4°13d
W-3.4°66d
SW-3.7°18d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 58°F 56°F 60°F 57°F 60°F
01:00 57°F 55°F 61°F 56°F 58°F
02:00 55°F 53°F 61°F 54°F 58°F
03:00 55°F 52°F 59°F 53°F 57°F
04:00 54°F 52°F 59°F 53°F 58°F
05:00 54°F 52°F 58°F 52°F 56°F
06:00 54°F 51°F 58°F 52°F 57°F
07:00 55°F 51°F 59°F 52°F 57°F
08:00 56°F 51°F 59°F 52°F 57°F
09:00 59°F 55°F 60°F 57°F 59°F
10:00 60°F 58°F 62°F 59°F 61°F
11:00 62°F 59°F 64°F 60°F 63°F
12:00 63°F 59°F 66°F 61°F 63°F
13:00 65°F 61°F 67°F 64°F 65°F
14:00 65°F 62°F 71°F 63°F 67°F
15:00 66°F 62°F 70°F 64°F 69°F
16:00 66°F 62°F 69°F 63°F 68°F
17:00 64°F 61°F 66°F 63°F 64°F
18:00 62°F 60°F 64°F 61°F 63°F
19:00 61°F 58°F 63°F 60°F 62°F
20:00 61°F 57°F 62°F 60°F 62°F
21:00 59°F 57°F 61°F 59°F 61°F
22:00 59°F 57°F 61°F 58°F 61°F
23:00 58°F 55°F 60°F 58°F 59°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 58°F —
11-08 69°F —
11-07 71°F —
11-06 69°F —
11-05 70°F —
11-04 67°F —
11-03 65°F —
11-02 64°F —
11-01 65°F —
10-31 65°F —
10-30 67°F —
10-29 64°F —
10-28 69°F —
10-27 65°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
Environment Canada GEM69.6°71.2°2.36°most accurate here
DWD ICON67.6°70.3°2.67°
NOAA GFS71.2°72.1°3.05°
ECMWF IFS68.9°68.4°3.42°
CMA GRAPES69.6°70.9°3.76°
UK Met Office67.6°68.4°3.79°
JMA GSM63.9°64.0°6.68°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
Environment Canada GEM2.36°-1.57°47%
DWD ICON2.67°+1.89°50%
NOAA GFS3.05°+2.86°47%
ECMWF IFS3.42°-3.06°22%
CMA GRAPES3.76°+3.35°41%
UK Met Office3.79°+3.30°26%
JMA GSM6.68°-6.61°1%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z320° 11kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 15,000ft
from10/07Z onwards270° 6kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from10/12Z onwardsvariable 4kt; 3 statute miles; mist; scattered at 600ft; broken at 2,500ft
from10/18Z onwards330° 8kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 25,000ft
TAF KSFO 092047Z 0921/1024 32011KT P6SM SCT150 FM100700 27006KT P6SM FEW250 FM101200 VRB04KT 3SM BR SCT006 BKN025 FM101800 33008KT P6SM BKN250
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤59°F0%12%8/68
60-61°F0%4%3/68
62-63°F3%13%9/68
64-65°F30%10%7/68
66-67°F45%19%13/68
68-69°F40%21%14/68
70-71°F6%9%6/68
72-73°F5%6%4/68
74-75°F0%3%2/68
76-77°F0%1%1/68
≥78°F0%1%1/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 131% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
52°F
KSEA 2053Z
today high so far
52°F
at 12:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.6°
observed 12:53 local
usually warmestsunset 16:41
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °F local
36°40°44°48°52°56°15:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:00ECMWF 55°FNOW 52°F
36°40°44°48°52°56°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 55°FNOW 52°F
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR KSEA, 8 obs
METAR KSEA 092053Z 00000KT 10SM BKN060 BKN075 OVC110 11/06 A2994 RMK AO2 RAB06E47 SLP145 P0000 60000 T01110061 58016
local temp dew wind cloud wx
12:53 52° 43° 000/00 OVC110 —
11:53 51° 40° 000/00 OVC120 —
10:53 51° 41° 280/04 BKN120 —
09:53 51° 39° 190/03 BKN130 —
08:53 49° 39° 150/05 BKN240 —
07:53 46° 41° 180/03 BKN190 —
06:53 44° 39° 000/00 SCT140 —
05:53 44° 40° 000/00 BKN095 —
current state
✓
METAR 52°F at 12:53 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (48°F–55°F) KSEA, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°F (n=14) — projects to ~54°F @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°F/h, dewpoint falling (40°F→43°F) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (52°F @ 12:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥57°F possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥57°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +0.9°F ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 55°F, current 52°F @ 12:53
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 51.1°F usual 48.0°F–55.0°F
typical 13:00 55.9°F usual 50.0°F–57.0°F
noon → peak climb +2.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
62°F
14d high, 2026 11 07
avg high55.9°F
usual range50.0°F – 57.0°F
days ≥57°F4 / 14
days ≥58°F1 / 14
days ≥59°F1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 64% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 64% of 126 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-1.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.0°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-3.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-3.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0052°F
implied peak54°F vs ecmwf 55°F
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
52° now at 13:00peak already set on 78% of days by nowtypically only +0.6° left (p90 +2.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0046°+6.6°3%
0146°+6.9°6%
0246°+7.2°6%
0345°+7.5°7%
0445°+7.6°9%
0545°+7.6°9%
0645°+7.7°9%
0745°+7.2°9%
0847°+6.1°7%
0948°+4.7°10%
1050°+3.1°15%
1151°+1.9°27%
1251°+1.3°42%
1352°+0.6°78%
1452°+0.4°90%
1551°+0.4°93%
1650°+0.4°96%
1749°+0.4°99%
1848°+0.3°100%
1948°+0.4°100%
2048°+0.2°100%
2147°+0.3°100%
2247°+0.1°100%
2346°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast2.2° below normal across 100 days (-3.2 to -1.2).
coldernormalwarmer
few+3.3°49d
scattered+1.2°48d
broken-1.0°174d
overcast-2.2°100d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 0kt+1.7° across 26 days (-0.9 to +4.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
NW+3.7°40d
W+1.7°26d
N+1.0°81d
CALM-0.5°28d
S-0.7°70d
SE-1.4°14d
SW-1.4°86d
VARIABLE-1.8°17d
NE-1.9°13d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 47°F 38°F 53°F 45°F 51°F
01:00 47°F 38°F 52°F 44°F 51°F
02:00 47°F 37°F 53°F 44°F 51°F
03:00 47°F 38°F 54°F 45°F 50°F
04:00 46°F 36°F 53°F 44°F 50°F
05:00 46°F 36°F 52°F 44°F 50°F
06:00 47°F 36°F 52°F 44°F 49°F
07:00 46°F 37°F 52°F 43°F 49°F
08:00 47°F 36°F 52°F 44°F 49°F
09:00 49°F 40°F 53°F 45°F 51°F
10:00 51°F 40°F 55°F 46°F 52°F
11:00 51°F 43°F 56°F 46°F 53°F
12:00 51°F 46°F 57°F 48°F 55°F
13:00 52°F 46°F 57°F 48°F 56°F
14:00 54°F 46°F 58°F 50°F 56°F
15:00 56°F 47°F 58°F 52°F 56°F
16:00 55°F 48°F 56°F 53°F 55°F
17:00 52°F 46°F 56°F 50°F 55°F
18:00 51°F 46°F 62°F 48°F 53°F
19:00 50°F 44°F 61°F 46°F 53°F
20:00 49°F 42°F 62°F 46°F 53°F
21:00 49°F 44°F 55°F 46°F 53°F
22:00 48°F 41°F 55°F 46°F 51°F
23:00 48°F 40°F 53°F 45°F 51°F
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 47°F —
11-08 57°F —
11-07 62°F —
11-06 56°F —
11-05 57°F —
11-04 56°F —
11-03 57°F —
11-02 50°F —
11-01 48°F —
10-31 54°F —
10-30 49°F —
10-29 55°F —
10-28 54°F —
10-27 56°F —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS53.4°55.4°2.62°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS56.5°55.6°3.14°
Environment Canada GEM53.8°55.9°3.20°
DWD ICON56.3°56.5°3.33°
UK Met Office55.2°56.7°3.40°
CMA GRAPES55.2°59.2°3.41°
JMA GSM52.0°59.5°3.58°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS2.62°+1.43°55%
ECMWF IFS3.14°+0.84°34%
Environment Canada GEM3.20°+2.58°50%
DWD ICON3.33°-0.99°24%
UK Met Office3.40°+1.11°29%
CMA GRAPES3.41°-1.07°26%
JMA GSM3.58°-0.65°25%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z180° 4kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 6,000ft; broken at 10,000ft
from09/22Z onwards150° 8kt gusting 16; >6 statute miles; light showers rain; overcast at 4,500ft
from10/00Z onwards140° 10kt gusting 20; 4 statute miles; light rain; scattered at 2,500ft; overcast at 3,000ft
from10/06Z onwards190° 9kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; scattered at 3,000ft; broken at 5,000ft
from10/12Z onwards150° 5kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 5,000ft; overcast at 10,000ft
from10/15Z onwards200° 8kt; 6 statute miles; light showers rain; overcast at 3,500ft
from10/17Z onwards200° 10kt gusting 20; 5 statute miles; light showers rain; overcast at 2,500ft
TAF KSEA 092050Z 0921/1024 18004KT P6SM SCT060 BKN100 FM092200 15008G16KT P6SM -SHRA OVC045 FM100000 14010G20KT 4SM -RA SCT025 OVC030 FM100600 19009KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 BKN050 FM101200 15005KT P6SM BKN050 OVC100 FM101500 20008KT 6SM -SHRA OVC035 FM101700 20010G20KT 5SM -SHRA OVC025
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤45°F0%9%6/68
46-47°F0%7%5/68
48-49°F0%7%5/68
50-51°F0%15%10/68
52-53°F44%15%10/68
54-55°F47%18%12/68
56-57°F8%15%10/68
58-59°F2%7%5/68
60-61°F0%3%2/68
62-63°F0%4%3/68
≥64°F0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
2°C
RKSI 2100Z
today high so far
5°C
at 00:00
forecast peak12°DWD ICON
climatology alone suggests8°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+5.9°
observed 06:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:28
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-5°-1°3°7°11°15°08:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 2°C
-5°-1°3°7°11°15°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 2°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RKSI, 8 obs
METAR RKSI 092100Z 11001KT CAVOK 02/M03 Q1028 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
06:00 2° -3° 110/01 CAVOK —
05:30 5° -3° 360/02 CAVOK —
05:00 5° -3° 020/02 CAVOK —
04:30 5° -4° 350/04 CAVOK —
04:00 5° -3° 350/05 CAVOK —
03:30 5° -3° 340/06 CAVOK —
03:00 4° -3° 340/06 CAVOK —
02:30 5° -3° 360/07 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 2°C at 06:00 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (9°C this hour) RKSI, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~3°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -2.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (-3°C→-3°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (2°C @ 06:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥16°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥16°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 11°C, current 2°C @ 06:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 9.0°C usual 6.0°C–11.0°C
typical 14:00 15.0°C usual 11.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
19°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high15.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥16°C5 / 14
days ≥17°C5 / 14
days ≥18°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 75% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 75% of 122 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 18:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 06:00)
implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 11°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
2° now at 06:00typically +5.9° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 8°peak already set on 15% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+4.9°13%
019°+5.1°15%
029°+5.4°14%
039°+5.5°15%
049°+5.7°15%
059°+5.7°15%
069°+5.9°15%
078°+6.0°15%
089°+5.3°15%
0910°+4.1°18%
1011°+3.1°18%
1112°+2.0°22%
1213°+1.1°49%
1314°+0.6°70%
1414°+0.4°85%
1514°+0.3°97%
1613°+0.3°99%
1712°+0.3°98%
1812°+0.3°100%
1911°+0.3°100%
2011°+0.4°100%
2110°+0.4°100%
2210°+0.4°100%
239°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearonly 11 days on record against a floor of 20, so it is not shown — too few to characterise
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.3°26d
scattered+1.1°34d
broken+0.5°73d
overcast-0.9°35d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 1kt+0.6° across 37 days (-0.1 to +1.3) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.0°36d
SE+1.8°39d
SW+1.6°14d
W+0.6°24d
E+0.6°37d
VARIABLE+0.4°33d
NE+0.1°59d
N-0.3°51d
NW-1.8°90d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 5°C 17°C 6°C 12°C
01:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 6°C 12°C
02:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 6°C 12°C
03:00 9°C 5°C 14°C 6°C 12°C
04:00 10°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 12°C
05:00 9°C 5°C 13°C 6°C 12°C
06:00 9°C 4°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
07:00 10°C 4°C 12°C 6°C 12°C
08:00 9°C 4°C 13°C 6°C 10°C
09:00 11°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 12°C
10:00 12°C 6°C 15°C 7°C 13°C
11:00 13°C 6°C 17°C 9°C 15°C
12:00 13°C 5°C 18°C 9°C 15°C
13:00 14°C 6°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
14:00 14°C 6°C 19°C 11°C 16°C
15:00 14°C 7°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
16:00 14°C 7°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
17:00 13°C 7°C 17°C 10°C 15°C
18:00 12°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 13°C
19:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 8°C 14°C
20:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 7°C 13°C
21:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 7°C 13°C
22:00 10°C 6°C 17°C 7°C 12°C
23:00 9°C 5°C 17°C 6°C 13°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 5°C —
11-09 11°C —
11-08 7°C —
11-07 9°C —
11-06 13°C —
11-05 17°C —
11-04 18°C —
11-03 17°C —
11-02 15°C —
11-01 11°C —
10-31 17°C —
10-30 19°C —
10-29 13°C —
10-28 12°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON11.9°14.7°0.77°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS11.0°13.8°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM12.0°15.5°1.26°
JMA GSM13.4°14.5°2.25°
CMA GRAPES13.2°14.4°2.77°
UK Met Office13.5°13.9°2.82°
NOAA GFS13.3°13.6°3.55°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.77°-0.24°75%
ECMWF IFS1.17°-0.97°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.26°-1.00°42%
JMA GSM2.25°-2.13°18%
CMA GRAPES2.77°-2.69°13%
UK Met Office2.82°-2.74°14%
NOAA GFS3.55°-3.54°9%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max12°at 10/05Zmin 6°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z340° 8kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming10/06Z→10/08Z240° 6kt; 10km+; scattered at 4,500ft
becoming10/11Z→10/13Z310° 7kt
becoming10/18Z→10/20Z050° 6kt; 4000m; mist
TAF RKSI 091700Z 0918/1024 34008KT CAVOK TN03/0921Z TX12/1005Z TN06/1021Z BECMG 1006/1008 24006KT 9999 SCT045 BECMG 1011/1013 31007KT BECMG 1018/1020 05006KT 4000 BR
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤6°C0%6%4/68
7°C0%3%2/68
8°C0%1%1/68
9°C0%6%4/68
10°C2%3%2/68
11°C18%4%3/68
12°C60%6%4/68
13°C22%9%6/68
14°C1%9%6/68
15°C0%9%6/68
≥16°C0%44%30/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
2°C
RKSI 2100Z
today low so far
2°C
at 06:00
forecast low3°DWD ICON
climatology alone suggests8°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+5.9°
observed 06:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:28
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-5°-1°3°7°11°15°08:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:00ECMWF 5°CNOW 2°C
-5°-1°3°7°11°15°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 5°CNOW 2°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RKSI, 8 obs
METAR RKSI 092100Z 11001KT CAVOK 02/M03 Q1028 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
06:00 2° -3° 110/01 CAVOK —
05:30 5° -3° 360/02 CAVOK —
05:00 5° -3° 020/02 CAVOK —
04:30 5° -4° 350/04 CAVOK —
04:00 5° -3° 350/05 CAVOK —
03:30 5° -3° 340/06 CAVOK —
03:00 4° -3° 340/06 CAVOK —
02:30 5° -3° 360/07 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 2°C at 06:00 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (9°C this hour) RKSI, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~3°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -2.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (-3°C→-3°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (2°C @ 06:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥16°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥16°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current 2°C @ 06:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 9.0°C usual 6.0°C–11.0°C
typical 14:00 15.0°C usual 11.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how cold it gets last 14 days
19°C
14d low, 2026 10 30
avg high15.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥16°C5 / 14
days ≥17°C5 / 14
days ≥18°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 75% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 75% of 122 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 18:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 06:00)
implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 5°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
2° now at 06:00typically +5.9° more (p90 +10.0°)expected peak 8°peak already set on 15% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0010°+4.9°13%
019°+5.1°15%
029°+5.4°14%
039°+5.5°15%
049°+5.7°15%
059°+5.7°15%
069°+5.9°15%
078°+6.0°15%
089°+5.3°15%
0910°+4.1°18%
1011°+3.1°18%
1112°+2.0°22%
1213°+1.1°49%
1314°+0.6°70%
1414°+0.4°85%
1514°+0.3°97%
1613°+0.3°99%
1712°+0.3°98%
1812°+0.3°100%
1911°+0.3°100%
2011°+0.4°100%
2110°+0.4°100%
2210°+0.4°100%
239°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearonly 11 days on record against a floor of 20, so it is not shown — too few to characterise
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.3°26d
scattered+1.1°34d
broken+0.5°73d
overcast-0.9°35d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 1kt+0.6° across 37 days (-0.1 to +1.3) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.0°36d
SE+1.8°39d
SW+1.6°14d
W+0.6°24d
E+0.6°37d
VARIABLE+0.4°33d
NE+0.1°59d
N-0.3°51d
NW-1.8°90d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 5°C 17°C 6°C 12°C
01:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 6°C 12°C
02:00 9°C 5°C 16°C 6°C 12°C
03:00 9°C 5°C 14°C 6°C 12°C
04:00 10°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 12°C
05:00 10°C 5°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
06:00 9°C 4°C 13°C 6°C 11°C
07:00 10°C 4°C 12°C 6°C 10°C
08:00 9°C 4°C 13°C 6°C 10°C
09:00 11°C 5°C 14°C 7°C 12°C
10:00 12°C 6°C 15°C 7°C 13°C
11:00 12°C 6°C 17°C 9°C 15°C
12:00 13°C 5°C 18°C 9°C 15°C
13:00 14°C 6°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
14:00 14°C 6°C 19°C 11°C 16°C
15:00 14°C 7°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
16:00 14°C 7°C 18°C 10°C 16°C
17:00 13°C 7°C 17°C 10°C 15°C
18:00 12°C 7°C 17°C 9°C 13°C
19:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 8°C 14°C
20:00 11°C 7°C 16°C 7°C 13°C
21:00 10°C 7°C 17°C 7°C 13°C
22:00 10°C 6°C 17°C 7°C 12°C
23:00 9°C 5°C 17°C 6°C 13°C
observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 5°C —
11-09 11°C —
11-08 7°C —
11-07 9°C —
11-06 13°C —
11-05 17°C —
11-04 18°C —
11-03 17°C —
11-02 15°C —
11-01 11°C —
10-31 17°C —
10-30 19°C —
10-29 13°C —
10-28 12°C —
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by8.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON3.3°6.6°0.77°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS3.3°4.8°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM-0.5°3.4°1.26°
JMA GSM6.6°10.7°2.25°
CMA GRAPES7.4°12.9°2.77°
UK Met Office7.7°12.2°2.82°
NOAA GFS8.3°11.5°3.55°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.77°-0.24°75%
ECMWF IFS1.17°-0.97°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.26°-1.00°42%
JMA GSM2.25°-2.13°18%
CMA GRAPES2.77°-2.69°13%
UK Met Office2.82°-2.74°14%
NOAA GFS3.55°-3.54°9%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max12°at 10/05Zmin 6°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z340° 8kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming10/06Z→10/08Z240° 6kt; 10km+; scattered at 4,500ft
becoming10/11Z→10/13Z310° 7kt
becoming10/18Z→10/20Z050° 6kt; 4000m; mist
TAF RKSI 091700Z 0918/1024 34008KT CAVOK TN03/0921Z TX12/1005Z TN06/1021Z BECMG 1006/1008 24006KT 9999 SCT045 BECMG 1011/1013 31007KT BECMG 1018/1020 05006KT 4000 BR
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤-1°C5%1%1/68
0°C1%4%3/68
1°C9%6%4/68
2°C57%1%1/68
3°C0%7%5/68
4°C0%6%4/68
5°C0%6%4/68
6°C0%18%12/68
7°C0%10%7/68
8°C0%7%5/68
≥9°C0%32%22/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 72% and climatology to 100%.

Shanghai

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
9°C
ZSPD 2100Z
today high so far
9°C
at 00:00
forecast peak14°UK Met Office
typical further climb+4.7°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 16:58
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
1°6°11°16°21°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 15°CNOW 9°C
1°6°11°16°21°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 15°CNOW 9°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZSPD, 8 obs
METAR ZSPD 092100Z 31007MPS CAVOK 09/02 Q1031 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 9° 2° 310/14 CAVOK —
04:30 9° 3° 310/14 CAVOK —
04:00 9° 2° 310/14 CAVOK —
03:30 9° 3° 310/14 CAVOK —
03:00 9° 3° 310/14 CAVOK —
02:30 9° 3° 320/16 CAVOK —
02:00 9° 3° 320/16 CAVOK —
01:30 9° 2° 310/14 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 9°C at 05:00 local, -8.0°C vs 14d-median (17°C this hour) ZSPD, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (3°C→2°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (9°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥22°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥22°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -8.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 15°C, current 9°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 17.0°C usual 16.0°C–17.0°C
typical 12:00 21.0°C usual 20.0°C–23.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
26°C
14d high, 2026 11 01
avg high21.0°C
usual range20.0°C – 23.0°C
days ≥22°C4 / 14
days ≥23°C4 / 14
days ≥24°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 57% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 57% of 126 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00-0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 15°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
9° now at 05:00typically +4.7° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 14°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0016°+4.1°9%
0116°+4.4°9%
0215°+4.5°10%
0315°+4.7°12%
0415°+4.8°12%
0515°+4.7°12%
0615°+4.8°12%
0716°+4.0°12%
0817°+2.8°12%
0918°+1.9°22%
1019°+1.2°40%
1119°+0.8°60%
1219°+0.5°87%
1319°+0.3°97%
1419°+0.2°99%
1519°+0.2°99%
1618°+0.2°99%
1717°+0.2°99%
1817°+0.2°99%
1917°+0.3°100%
2016°+0.3°100%
2116°+0.3°100%
2216°+0.2°100%
2316°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.8°30d
scattered+0.5°117d
broken-0.1°95d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 14kt2.3° below normal across 32 days (-3.3 to -1.3).
coldernormalwarmer
S+4.2°35d
SE+1.9°30d
E+1.1°57d
W-0.4°12d
NE-0.9°109d
N-1.1°95d
NW-2.3°32d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 9°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 9°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
02:00 16°C 15°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
03:00 16°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
04:00 16°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
05:00 17°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 17°C
06:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
07:00 17°C 13°C 20°C 16°C 17°C
08:00 17°C 12°C 22°C 17°C 18°C
09:00 19°C 12°C 23°C 18°C 19°C
10:00 20°C 12°C 24°C 18°C 20°C
11:00 20°C 12°C 25°C 19°C 21°C
12:00 20°C 11°C 25°C 19°C 22°C
13:00 20°C 11°C 26°C 19°C 23°C
14:00 20°C 12°C 26°C 19°C 23°C
15:00 20°C 12°C 25°C 19°C 22°C
16:00 20°C 12°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
17:00 19°C 11°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
18:00 18°C 11°C 21°C 18°C 19°C
19:00 18°C 10°C 20°C 18°C 19°C
20:00 17°C 10°C 20°C 17°C 19°C
21:00 17°C 10°C 19°C 17°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 9°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
23:00 17°C 9°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 9°C —
11-09 17°C —
11-08 19°C —
11-07 20°C —
11-06 20°C —
11-05 19°C —
11-04 20°C —
11-03 21°C —
11-02 21°C —
11-01 26°C —
10-31 23°C —
10-30 24°C —
10-29 24°C —
10-28 21°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office13.7°16.5°0.77°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES14.1°17.0°0.93°
ECMWF IFS14.3°17.7°0.97°
DWD ICON13.5°16.1°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM15.8°18.2°1.49°
NOAA GFS14.2°16.6°1.57°
JMA GSM15.7°18.4°3.42°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.77°-0.52°75%
CMA GRAPES0.93°-0.65°61%
ECMWF IFS0.97°-0.84°59%
DWD ICON1.17°-1.13°51%
Environment Canada GEM1.49°-1.44°34%
NOAA GFS1.57°-1.51°28%
JMA GSM3.42°-3.38°7%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max15°at 10/06Zmin 11°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z330° 8mps gusting 13; 8000m; scattered at 3,000ft
becoming09/21Z→09/22Z330° 5mps
TAF ZSPD 091504Z 0918/1024 33008G13MPS 8000 SCT030 TX15/1006Z TN09/0921Z TN11/1021Z BECMG 0921/0922 33005MPS
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤11°C0%1%1/68
12°C0%0%0/68
13°C1%1%1/68
14°C12%4%3/68
15°C60%0%0/68
16°C24%3%2/68
17°C4%12%8/68
18°C0%6%4/68
19°C0%18%12/68
20°C0%16%11/68
≥21°C0%38%26/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.

Shanghai

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
9°C
ZSPD 2100Z
today low so far
9°C
at 00:00
forecast low10°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests14°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+4.7°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 16:58
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
1°6°11°16°21°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 9°C
1°6°11°16°21°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 11°CNOW 9°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZSPD, 8 obs
METAR ZSPD 092100Z 31007MPS CAVOK 09/02 Q1031 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 9° 2° 310/14 CAVOK —
04:30 9° 3° 310/14 CAVOK —
04:00 9° 2° 310/14 CAVOK —
03:30 9° 3° 310/14 CAVOK —
03:00 9° 3° 310/14 CAVOK —
02:30 9° 3° 320/16 CAVOK —
02:00 9° 3° 320/16 CAVOK —
01:30 9° 2° 310/14 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 9°C at 05:00 local, -8.0°C vs 14d-median (17°C this hour) ZSPD, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (3°C→2°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (9°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥22°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥22°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -8.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 11°C, current 9°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 17.0°C usual 16.0°C–17.0°C
typical 12:00 21.0°C usual 20.0°C–23.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how cold it gets last 14 days
26°C
14d low, 2026 11 01
avg high21.0°C
usual range20.0°C – 23.0°C
days ≥22°C4 / 14
days ≥23°C4 / 14
days ≥24°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 57% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 57% of 126 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00-0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 11°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
9° now at 05:00typically +4.7° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 14°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0016°+4.1°9%
0116°+4.4°9%
0215°+4.5°10%
0315°+4.7°12%
0415°+4.8°12%
0515°+4.7°12%
0615°+4.8°12%
0716°+4.0°12%
0817°+2.8°12%
0918°+1.9°22%
1019°+1.2°40%
1119°+0.8°60%
1219°+0.5°87%
1319°+0.3°97%
1419°+0.2°99%
1519°+0.2°99%
1618°+0.2°99%
1717°+0.2°99%
1817°+0.2°99%
1917°+0.3°100%
2016°+0.3°100%
2116°+0.3°100%
2216°+0.2°100%
2316°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.8°30d
scattered+0.5°117d
broken-0.1°95d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 14kt2.3° below normal across 32 days (-3.3 to -1.3).
coldernormalwarmer
S+4.2°35d
SE+1.9°30d
E+1.1°57d
W-0.4°12d
NE-0.9°109d
N-1.1°95d
NW-2.3°32d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 9°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 9°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
02:00 16°C 15°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
03:00 16°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
04:00 16°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
05:00 17°C 14°C 19°C 16°C 17°C
06:00 17°C 13°C 19°C 15°C 17°C
07:00 17°C 13°C 20°C 16°C 17°C
08:00 17°C 12°C 22°C 17°C 18°C
09:00 19°C 12°C 23°C 18°C 19°C
10:00 20°C 12°C 24°C 18°C 20°C
11:00 20°C 12°C 25°C 19°C 21°C
12:00 20°C 11°C 25°C 19°C 22°C
13:00 20°C 11°C 26°C 19°C 23°C
14:00 20°C 12°C 26°C 19°C 23°C
15:00 20°C 12°C 26°C 19°C 22°C
16:00 20°C 12°C 23°C 18°C 21°C
17:00 19°C 11°C 22°C 18°C 20°C
18:00 18°C 11°C 21°C 18°C 19°C
19:00 18°C 10°C 20°C 18°C 19°C
20:00 17°C 10°C 20°C 17°C 19°C
21:00 17°C 10°C 19°C 17°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 9°C 20°C 16°C 18°C
23:00 17°C 9°C 19°C 16°C 18°C
observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 9°C —
11-09 17°C —
11-08 19°C —
11-07 20°C —
11-06 20°C —
11-05 19°C —
11-04 20°C —
11-03 21°C —
11-02 21°C —
11-01 26°C —
10-31 23°C —
10-30 24°C —
10-29 24°C —
10-28 21°C —
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office10.2°12.3°0.77°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES8.5°10.7°0.93°
ECMWF IFS9.3°11.1°0.97°
DWD ICON7.2°7.6°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM8.9°10.4°1.49°
NOAA GFS9.3°11.4°1.57°
JMA GSM12.7°15.1°3.42°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office0.77°-0.52°75%
CMA GRAPES0.93°-0.65°61%
ECMWF IFS0.97°-0.84°59%
DWD ICON1.17°-1.13°51%
Environment Canada GEM1.49°-1.44°34%
NOAA GFS1.57°-1.51°28%
JMA GSM3.42°-3.38°7%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max15°at 10/06Zmin 11°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z330° 8mps gusting 13; 8000m; scattered at 3,000ft
becoming09/21Z→09/22Z330° 5mps
TAF ZSPD 091504Z 0918/1024 33008G13MPS 8000 SCT030 TX15/1006Z TN09/0921Z TN11/1021Z BECMG 0921/0922 33005MPS
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤5°C7%0%0/68
6°C7%0%0/68
7°C20%6%4/68
8°C30%3%2/68
9°C70%7%5/68
10°C0%6%4/68
11°C0%7%5/68
12°C0%3%2/68
13°C0%9%6/68
14°C0%12%8/68
≥15°C0%47%32/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 136% and climatology to 100%.

Shenzhen

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
16°C
ZGSZ 2100Z
today high so far
19°C
at 00:00
forecast peak21°DWD ICON
typical further climb+4.4°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:43
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
1°7°13°19°25°31°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 22°CNOW 16°C
1°7°13°19°25°31°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 22°CNOW 16°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZGSZ, 8 obs
METAR ZGSZ 092100Z 02008MPS 9999 FEW050 16/02 Q1025 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 16° 2° 020/16 FEW050 —
04:00 17° 2° 010/14 FEW050 —
03:00 17° 3° 010/19 CAVOK —
02:00 17° 4° 010/17 CAVOK —
01:00 18° 5° 010/16 CAVOK —
00:00 19° 5° 010/17 CAVOK —
23:00 19° 6° 010/16 CAVOK —
22:00 20° 6° 010/16 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 16°C at 05:00 local, -10.0°C vs 14d-median (26°C this hour) ZGSZ, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~17°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.2°C/h, dewpoint falling (2°C→2°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (16°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥31°C possible 14d records show 2/14 days reached ≥31°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -10.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 22°C, current 16°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 26.0°C usual 26.0°C–26.0°C
typical 14:00 30.0°C usual 30.0°C–30.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
31°C
14d high, 2026 11 02
avg high30.0°C
usual range30.0°C – 30.0°C
days ≥31°C2 / 14
days ≥32°C0 / 14
days ≥33°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 63% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 63% of 122 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~30°C (clim) vs ecmwf 22°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
16° now at 05:00typically +4.4° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 20°peak already set on 13% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0024°+3.3°15%
0124°+3.6°13%
0223°+3.8°13%
0323°+4.0°13%
0423°+4.2°13%
0523°+4.4°13%
0623°+4.4°13%
0723°+4.4°13%
0823°+3.7°13%
0924°+2.9°13%
1025°+2.0°19%
1126°+1.4°34%
1226°+0.8°51%
1326°+0.5°66%
1427°+0.1°91%
1526°+0.1°99%
1626°+0.0°100%
1726°+0.0°100%
1825°+0.0°100%
1925°+0.1°100%
2024°+0.0°100%
2124°+0.0°100%
2224°+0.0°100%
2324°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew0.7° above normal across 61 days (+0.4 to +1.1).
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.7°61d
scattered+0.4°117d
broken-1.6°61d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 16kt1.0° below normal across 90 days (-1.7 to -0.4).
coldernormalwarmer
NW+1.2°17d
W+0.8°20d
VARIABLE+0.6°58d
SW+0.2°51d
NE+0.1°89d
E-0.0°31d
S-0.0°16d
SE-0.8°13d
N-1.0°90d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 26°C 19°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
01:00 26°C 19°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
02:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
03:00 26°C 24°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
04:00 26°C 24°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
05:00 26°C 24°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
06:00 26°C 22°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
07:00 26°C 22°C 27°C 25°C 26°C
08:00 26°C 22°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
09:00 27°C 22°C 28°C 26°C 28°C
10:00 28°C 24°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
11:00 29°C 25°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
12:00 29°C 25°C 30°C 29°C 30°C
13:00 29°C 25°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
14:00 30°C 26°C 31°C 29°C 30°C
15:00 30°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
16:00 29°C 25°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
17:00 29°C 23°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
18:00 28°C 22°C 30°C 28°C 28°C
19:00 28°C 22°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
20:00 27°C 22°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
21:00 27°C 21°C 28°C 27°C 28°C
22:00 27°C 20°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
23:00 26°C 19°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 19°C —
11-09 28°C —
11-08 30°C —
11-07 30°C —
11-06 30°C —
11-05 30°C —
11-04 30°C —
11-03 28°C —
11-02 31°C —
11-01 30°C —
10-31 30°C —
10-30 30°C —
10-29 31°C —
10-28 29°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON21.3°23.8°0.97°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS21.8°25.0°0.98°
Environment Canada GEM22.1°25.3°0.98°
UK Met Office21.6°23.9°1.12°
CMA GRAPES19.5°21.0°1.20°
JMA GSM21.9°24.9°1.31°
NOAA GFS23.8°26.1°1.72°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.97°-0.66°59%
ECMWF IFS0.98°-0.62°63%
Environment Canada GEM0.98°-0.15°58%
UK Met Office1.12°+0.52°58%
CMA GRAPES1.20°+0.90°50%
JMA GSM1.31°-1.06°53%
NOAA GFS1.72°+1.24°34%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max24°at 10/06Zmin 15°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z020° 8mps gusting 13; 8000m; few at 2,000ft
TAF ZGSZ 091501Z 0918/1024 02008G13MPS 8000 FEW020 TX24/1006Z TN16/0922Z TN15/1022Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤17°C0%0%0/68
18°C0%0%0/68
19°C0%1%1/68
20°C1%1%1/68
21°C5%3%2/68
22°C42%4%3/68
23°C45%6%4/68
24°C10%6%4/68
25°C1%0%0/68
26°C0%9%6/68
≥27°C0%69%47/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.

Singapore

05:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
25°C
WSSS 2100Z
today high so far
26°C
at 00:00
forecast peak32°DWD ICON
typical further climb+5.7°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:50
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
23°25°27°29°31°33°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 29°CNOW 25°C
23°25°27°29°31°33°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 29°CNOW 25°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR WSSS, 8 obs
METAR WSSS 092100Z 35003KT 8000 FEW016 BKN170 25/25 Q1009 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 25° 25° 350/03 BKN170 —
04:30 25° 25° 350/01 BKN170 —
04:00 26° 25° 000/00 BKN170 —
03:30 26° 24° 330/03 BKN170 —
03:00 26° 24° — BKN170 —
02:30 26° 25° 330/03 BKN160 —
02:00 26° 24° 330/04 BKN160 —
01:30 26° 25° 330/05 BKN160 —
current state
▼
METAR 25°C at 05:00 local, -1.0°C vs 14d-median (26°C this hour) WSSS, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint rising (25°C→25°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (25°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥33°C possible 14d records show 2/14 days reached ≥33°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 29°C, current 25°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 26.0°C usual 26.0°C–27.0°C
typical 12:00 32.0°C usual 30.0°C–32.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
33°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high32.0°C
usual range30.0°C – 32.0°C
days ≥33°C2 / 14
days ≥34°C0 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–14:00
where the high landed on 80% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 14:00 local on 80% of 136 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00-0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00-0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-3.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 29°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
25° now at 05:00typically +5.7° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 31°peak already set on 1% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0026°+5.0°3%
0126°+5.1°1%
0226°+5.3°1%
0326°+5.4°1%
0426°+5.5°1%
0526°+5.7°1%
0626°+5.6°1%
0726°+5.4°1%
0827°+4.1°1%
0928°+3.1°4%
1029°+2.2°16%
1130°+1.5°37%
1230°+1.1°61%
1330°+0.9°75%
1430°+0.7°94%
1529°+0.6°97%
1629°+0.6°100%
1728°+0.4°100%
1828°+0.3°100%
1927°+0.4°100%
2027°+0.4°100%
2127°+0.3°100%
2227°+0.3°100%
2326°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken+0.0° across 348 days (-0.1 to +0.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
scattered-0.4°39d
broken+0.0°348d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 3kt-0.0° across 27 days (-0.7 to +0.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
E+0.9°20d
SE+0.8°58d
NE+0.4°12d
VARIABLE+0.1°36d
N-0.0°27d
S-0.2°145d
W-0.4°20d
NW-0.5°16d
SW-0.9°42d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
01:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
02:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
03:00 26°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
04:00 27°C 25°C 28°C 26°C 27°C
05:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
06:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 27°C
07:00 26°C 25°C 27°C 26°C 26°C
08:00 28°C 27°C 29°C 27°C 28°C
09:00 29°C 26°C 30°C 28°C 29°C
10:00 30°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 30°C
11:00 30°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
12:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
13:00 31°C 27°C 32°C 30°C 32°C
14:00 31°C 28°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
15:00 29°C 25°C 33°C 26°C 31°C
16:00 29°C 24°C 32°C 27°C 31°C
17:00 30°C 25°C 32°C 26°C 30°C
18:00 30°C 25°C 31°C 26°C 30°C
19:00 29°C 25°C 30°C 26°C 30°C
20:00 29°C 25°C 30°C 26°C 29°C
21:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 29°C
22:00 28°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 29°C
23:00 27°C 25°C 29°C 26°C 28°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 26°C —
11-09 30°C —
11-08 30°C —
11-07 32°C —
11-06 31°C —
11-05 30°C —
11-04 32°C —
11-03 33°C —
11-02 32°C —
11-01 32°C —
10-31 33°C —
10-30 32°C —
10-29 29°C —
10-28 30°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON31.8°32.1°0.56°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES30.4°28.7°0.67°
UK Met Office30.9°30.7°0.71°
Environment Canada GEM30.9°31.1°0.85°
ECMWF IFS30.3°29.6°0.93°
NOAA GFS29.9°27.2°0.94°
JMA GSM28.5°28.9°2.37°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.56°-0.29°83%
CMA GRAPES0.67°+0.00°78%
UK Met Office0.71°+0.37°75%
Environment Canada GEM0.85°-0.64°67%
ECMWF IFS0.93°-0.90°67%
NOAA GFS0.94°-0.80°55%
JMA GSM2.37°-2.36°4%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→11/00Z
base09/18Z→11/00Z320° 6kt; 10km+; few at 1,500ft; scattered at 2,000ft
temporarily10/04Z→10/08Z3000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 1,200ft (CB); broken at 1,500ft
TAF WSSS 091700Z 0918/1100 32006KT 9999 FEW015 SCT020 TEMPO 1004/1008 3000 TSRA FEW012CB BKN015
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤26°C0%1%1/68
27°C0%0%0/68
28°C2%3%2/68
29°C9%3%2/68
30°C18%18%12/68
31°C45%26%18/68
32°C26%26%18/68
33°C6%16%11/68
34°C0%6%4/68
35°C0%0%0/68
≥36°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 107% and climatology to 100%.

São Paulo

18:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
15°C
SBGR 2100Z
today high so far
17°C
at 10:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
observed 18:00 local
usually warmestsunset 18:24
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
9°13°17°21°25°29°20:0023:0002:0005:0008:0011:0014:0017:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 15°C
9°13°17°21°25°29°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 17°CNOW 15°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR SBGR, 8 obs
METAR SBGR 092100Z 13007KT 9999 SCT015 BKN026 15/10 Q1027
local temp dew wind cloud wx
18:00 15° 10° 130/07 BKN026 —
17:00 15° 12° 130/10 OVC019 -RA
16:00 16° 13° 150/07 OVC019 —
15:00 17° 12° 130/07 BKN021 —
14:00 16° 13° 140/07 BKN013 -RA
13:00 16° 13° 160/07 BKN019 —
12:00 17° 13° 150/07 BKN019 —
11:00 17° 12° 110/06 BKN017 —
current state
▼
METAR 15°C at 18:00 local, -6.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) SBGR, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 17°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (12°C→10°C) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -6.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 17°C, current 15°C @ 18:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 21.0°C usual 17.0°C–23.0°C
typical 14:00 25.0°C usual 21.0°C–29.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
33°C
14d high, 2026 11 04
avg high25.0°C
usual range21.0°C – 29.0°C
days ≥26°C7 / 14
days ≥27°C6 / 14
days ≥28°C6 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 72% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 72% of 130 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=68
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-5.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0017°C
implied peak17°C vs ecmwf 17°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
15° now at 18:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0018°+8.2°4%
0118°+8.5°4%
0218°+8.8°4%
0317°+9.1°4%
0417°+9.1°4%
0517°+9.2°4%
0618°+9.0°4%
0718°+8.0°4%
0820°+6.7°6%
0921°+5.2°6%
1023°+3.7°12%
1124°+2.3°22%
1225°+1.4°38%
1326°+0.7°65%
1426°+0.2°90%
1525°+0.0°100%
1624°+0.0°100%
1723°+0.1°100%
1822°+0.0°100%
1921°+0.1°100%
2020°+0.1°100%
2119°+0.1°100%
2219°+0.1°100%
2319°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken2.0° below normal across 106 days (-2.6 to -1.4).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+1.7°57d
broken-2.0°106d
overcast-5.8°83d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSE at 7kt4.4° below normal across 85 days (-5.2 to -3.6).
coldernormalwarmer
N+4.5°24d
NW+4.3°56d
VARIABLE+3.1°43d
W+2.6°20d
NE+2.0°29d
E-0.6°88d
S-4.0°31d
SE-4.4°85d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 20°C 13°C 21°C 17°C 21°C
01:00 19°C 12°C 22°C 17°C 20°C
02:00 18°C 11°C 22°C 17°C 20°C
03:00 18°C 13°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
04:00 18°C 13°C 21°C 16°C 19°C
05:00 18°C 13°C 20°C 16°C 19°C
06:00 18°C 14°C 20°C 16°C 20°C
07:00 18°C 14°C 22°C 17°C 21°C
08:00 19°C 14°C 24°C 16°C 22°C
09:00 21°C 15°C 28°C 17°C 25°C
10:00 23°C 16°C 31°C 17°C 26°C
11:00 24°C 16°C 32°C 19°C 26°C
12:00 24°C 17°C 30°C 20°C 28°C
13:00 24°C 16°C 32°C 21°C 28°C
14:00 23°C 16°C 32°C 21°C 26°C
15:00 23°C 16°C 33°C 21°C 27°C
16:00 22°C 16°C 32°C 20°C 25°C
17:00 22°C 16°C 31°C 18°C 25°C
18:00 21°C 15°C 30°C 17°C 23°C
19:00 19°C 15°C 28°C 17°C 21°C
20:00 20°C 15°C 26°C 17°C 21°C
21:00 20°C 14°C 22°C 17°C 21°C
22:00 20°C 14°C 22°C 17°C 21°C
23:00 20°C 13°C 22°C 17°C 21°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 17°C —
11-08 21°C —
11-07 32°C —
11-06 28°C —
11-05 26°C —
11-04 33°C —
11-03 31°C —
11-02 24°C —
11-01 29°C —
10-31 28°C —
10-30 25°C —
10-29 21°C —
10-28 21°C —
10-27 21°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
ECMWF IFS17.5°22.6°0.88°most accurate here
DWD ICON17.8°22.9°1.09°
NOAA GFS14.6°20.6°1.14°
Environment Canada GEM17.2°22.5°1.34°
CMA GRAPES18.0°21.2°1.52°
UK Met Office18.0°22.9°1.55°
JMA GSM16.9°20.0°1.99°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
ECMWF IFS0.88°-0.18°70%
DWD ICON1.09°-0.25°59%
NOAA GFS1.14°+0.20°59%
Environment Canada GEM1.34°+0.40°55%
CMA GRAPES1.52°-0.33°42%
UK Met Office1.55°-1.09°33%
JMA GSM1.99°-1.55°24%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/24Z
forecast max22°at 10/17Zmin 13°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/24Z150° 10kt; 10km+; broken at 2,000ft
possibly30%09/18Z→09/21Z6000m; rain; broken at 1,000ft
becoming09/21Z→09/23Z120° 7kt; broken at 1,200ft
becoming10/02Z→10/04Z100° 5kt
possibly30%10/07Z→10/11Z4000m; mist; overcast at 700ft
becoming10/12Z→10/14Z070° 7kt; scattered at 2,500ft
becoming10/16Z→10/18Z120° 10kt
possibly30%10/20Z→10/23Z8000m; rain; broken at 2,000ft
TAF SBGR 091610Z 0918/1024 15010KT 9999 BKN020 TN13/1009Z TX22/1017Z PROB30 0918/0921 6000 RA BKN010 BECMG 0921/0923 12007KT BKN012 BECMG 1002/1004 10005KT PROB30 1007/1011 4000 BR OVC007 BECMG 1012/1014 07007KT SCT025 BECMG 1016/1018 12010KT PROB30 1020/1023 8000 RA BKN020 RMK PGN
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤11°C0%0%0/68
12°C0%0%0/68
13°C0%0%0/68
14°C0%0%0/68
15°C0%1%1/68
16°C0%0%0/68
17°C100%3%2/68
18°C0%3%2/68
19°C0%1%1/68
20°C0%6%4/68
≥21°C0%85%58/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
17°C
RCSS 2100Z
today high so far
17°C
at 00:00
forecast peak19°NOAA GFS
climatology alone suggests22°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+4.5°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:09
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
7°12°17°22°27°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 17°C
7°12°17°22°27°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 17°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RCSS, 8 obs
METAR RCSS 092100Z VRB02KT 9999 FEW015 BKN050 17/09 Q1026 NOSIG RMK A3031
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 17° 9° — BKN050 —
04:00 17° 9° 030/03 BKN050 —
03:00 17° 9° 040/06 BKN050 —
02:00 17° 8° — BKN050 —
01:00 17° 9° — BKN040 —
00:00 17° 8° — BKN045 —
23:30 18° 8° — BKN045 —
23:00 18° 10° — BKN030 —
current state
▼
METAR 17°C at 05:00 local, -6.0°C vs 14d-median (23°C this hour) RCSS, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (9°C→9°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (17°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥29°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥29°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -6.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 20°C, current 17°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 23.0°C usual 22.0°C–23.0°C
typical 12:00 28.0°C usual 26.0°C–30.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
33°C
14d high, 2026 11 01
avg high28.0°C
usual range26.0°C – 30.0°C
days ≥29°C6 / 14
days ≥30°C5 / 14
days ≥31°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
10:00–12:00
where the high landed on 66% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 10:00 and 12:00 local on 66% of 95 days, most often around 11:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=108
12:00 → 14:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=107
12:00 → 15:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=106
12:00 → 16:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=106
12:00 → 17:00-2.9°C mean, 5y, n=106
12:00 → 18:00-3.2°C mean, 5y, n=105
12:00 → 19:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=106
12:00 → 20:00-3.6°C mean, 5y, n=104
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 20°C
heating passport climb to peak 54 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
17° now at 05:00typically +4.5° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 22°peak already set on 14% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0023°+4.5°7%
0123°+4.7°6%
0222°+4.7°9%
0322°+4.8°9%
0422°+5.0°6%
0522°+4.5°14%
0622°+4.9°10%
0723°+4.3°8%
0824°+2.9°11%
0925°+1.9°22%
1026°+1.2°37%
1126°+0.8°60%
1226°+0.6°77%
1326°+0.4°96%
1426°+0.3°100%
1525°+0.2°100%
1624°+0.3°100%
1723°+0.3°100%
1823°+0.3°100%
1923°+0.3°100%
2023°+0.3°100%
2123°+0.1°100%
2222°+0.1°100%
2322°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken1.2° below normal across 214 days (-1.5 to -0.8).
coldernormalwarmer
few+2.4°50d
scattered+1.9°66d
broken-1.2°214d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+3.4°18d
W+2.1°20d
NW+0.1°18d
E-0.4°240d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 23°C 17°C 24°C 23°C 23°C
01:00 23°C 17°C 24°C 22°C 24°C
02:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 24°C
03:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 23°C
04:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 23°C
05:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 23°C
06:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 22°C 23°C
07:00 23°C 21°C 24°C 23°C 23°C
08:00 24°C 22°C 28°C 24°C 25°C
09:00 26°C 22°C 29°C 24°C 27°C
10:00 27°C 22°C 30°C 25°C 28°C
11:00 28°C 22°C 32°C 25°C 29°C
12:00 28°C 21°C 32°C 25°C 30°C
13:00 26°C 22°C 31°C 25°C 29°C
14:00 27°C 22°C 32°C 25°C 29°C
15:00 26°C 22°C 33°C 24°C 29°C
16:00 25°C 21°C 32°C 24°C 28°C
17:00 24°C 19°C 28°C 24°C 25°C
18:00 24°C 19°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
19:00 24°C 19°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
20:00 24°C 18°C 26°C 23°C 24°C
21:00 23°C 18°C 25°C 23°C 25°C
22:00 23°C 18°C 25°C 23°C 24°C
23:00 23°C 18°C 25°C 22°C 23°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 24°C —
11-08 30°C —
11-07 26°C —
11-06 26°C —
11-05 32°C —
11-04 32°C —
11-03 27°C —
11-02 30°C —
11-01 33°C —
10-31 26°C —
10-30 29°C —
10-29 28°C —
10-28 26°C —
10-27 27°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS19.3°22.9°1.08°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS20.7°24.5°1.37°
DWD ICON19.9°24.3°1.39°
UK Met Office18.4°23.0°1.53°
CMA GRAPES19.2°23.0°2.28°
Environment Canada GEM17.9°23.2°2.40°
JMA GSM18.1°21.7°3.70°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS1.08°-0.61°61%
ECMWF IFS1.37°-1.24°42%
DWD ICON1.39°-1.26°37%
UK Met Office1.53°-1.39°34%
CMA GRAPES2.28°-2.08°16%
Environment Canada GEM2.40°-2.39°12%
JMA GSM3.70°-3.64°4%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
base09/18Z→10/18Z090° 12kt; 10km+; few at 1,200ft; broken at 3,200ft
temporarily09/18Z→09/24Z120° 5kt; 6000m; light rain; few at 1,000ft; broken at 2,000ft
temporarily10/02Z→10/08Z070° 17kt gusting 27; 5000m; rain; few at 1,000ft; broken at 2,000ft
temporarily10/08Z→10/14Z6000m; light rain; few at 1,200ft; broken at 2,500ft
temporarily10/14Z→10/18Z120° 7kt
TAF RCSS 091700Z 0918/1018 09012KT 9999 FEW012 BKN032 TEMPO 0918/0924 12005KT 6000 -RA FEW010 BKN020 TEMPO 1002/1008 07017G27KT 5000 RA FEW010 BKN020 TEMPO 1008/1014 6000 -RA FEW012 BKN025 TEMPO 1014/1018 12007KT
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤16°C0%0%0/67
17°C1%0%0/67
18°C1%1%1/67
19°C20%0%0/67
20°C40%4%3/67
21°C32%0%0/67
22°C8%6%4/67
23°C2%7%5/67
24°C0%13%9/67
25°C0%6%4/67
≥26°C0%61%41/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 103% and climatology to 100%.

Tel Aviv

23:20 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
14°C
LLBG 2120Z
today high so far
21°C
at 13:20
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 23:20 local
usually warmestsunset 16:45
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
2°7°12°17°22°27°01:0004:0007:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 14°C
2°7°12°17°22°27°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 20°CNOW 14°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR LLBG, 8 obs
METAR LLBG 092120Z VRB02KT CAVOK 14/07 Q1024 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
23:20 14° 7° — CAVOK —
22:50 14° 7° — CAVOK —
22:20 14° 7° — CAVOK —
21:50 14° 8° 040/04 CAVOK —
21:20 15° 7° — CAVOK —
20:50 15° 8° — CAVOK —
20:20 16° 8° — CAVOK —
19:50 16° 8° — CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 14°C at 23:20 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (21°C this hour) LLBG, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 12:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 21°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (7°C→7°C) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 20°C, current 14°C @ 23:20
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 21.0°C usual 20.0°C–22.0°C
typical 12:00 27.0°C usual 25.0°C–28.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
34°C
14d high, 2026 11 02
avg high27.0°C
usual range25.0°C – 28.0°C
days ≥28°C4 / 14
days ≥29°C3 / 14
days ≥30°C1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
10:00–12:00
where the high landed on 79% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 10:00 and 12:00 local on 79% of 140 days, most often around 11:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 14:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00-3.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 18:00-3.8°C mean, 5y, n=135
12:00 → 19:00-4.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-4.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 20°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
14° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0020°+7.3°0%
0119°+7.7°0%
0219°+8.2°0%
0318°+8.4°0%
0418°+8.7°0%
0518°+8.8°0%
0618°+8.6°0%
0720°+7.0°0%
0822°+4.7°0%
0924°+2.8°3%
1025°+1.5°25%
1126°+0.6°66%
1226°+0.3°91%
1326°+0.4°97%
1426°+0.3°100%
1525°+0.3°100%
1624°+0.3°100%
1723°+0.2°100%
1823°+0.2°100%
1922°+0.3°100%
2022°+0.2°100%
2121°+0.2°100%
2220°+0.2°100%
2320°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.6°127d
scattered-1.2°105d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
E+2.2°13d
NW+0.1°177d
W-0.2°130d
N-0.3°13d
SW-1.4°17d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 20°C 15°C 24°C 19°C 22°C
01:00 20°C 15°C 24°C 18°C 22°C
02:00 19°C 15°C 24°C 19°C 21°C
03:00 19°C 15°C 24°C 18°C 20°C
04:00 19°C 13°C 24°C 17°C 20°C
05:00 19°C 14°C 24°C 17°C 20°C
06:00 18°C 13°C 24°C 17°C 20°C
07:00 19°C 14°C 24°C 18°C 21°C
08:00 21°C 16°C 25°C 20°C 23°C
09:00 24°C 17°C 26°C 23°C 25°C
10:00 25°C 18°C 29°C 23°C 27°C
11:00 26°C 18°C 32°C 23°C 27°C
12:00 27°C 18°C 33°C 24°C 28°C
13:00 27°C 20°C 34°C 24°C 28°C
14:00 26°C 20°C 31°C 24°C 26°C
15:00 26°C 20°C 31°C 25°C 26°C
16:00 25°C 19°C 30°C 24°C 25°C
17:00 24°C 17°C 29°C 22°C 25°C
18:00 24°C 16°C 26°C 22°C 24°C
19:00 23°C 17°C 26°C 20°C 24°C
20:00 23°C 17°C 26°C 21°C 23°C
21:00 22°C 17°C 24°C 21°C 24°C
22:00 21°C 17°C 25°C 21°C 23°C
23:00 21°C 16°C 24°C 20°C 22°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 21°C —
11-08 23°C —
11-07 21°C —
11-06 25°C —
11-05 26°C —
11-04 27°C —
11-03 28°C —
11-02 34°C —
11-01 27°C —
10-31 27°C —
10-30 25°C —
10-29 27°C —
10-28 29°C —
10-27 29°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON21.6°23.5°0.39°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM20.8°22.1°0.46°
NOAA GFS20.6°22.2°0.57°
JMA GSM21.6°23.3°0.71°
UK Met Office20.5°21.9°0.87°
CMA GRAPES20.4°22.4°2.18°
ECMWF IFS20.8°22.2°2.22°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.39°+0.14°97%
Environment Canada GEM0.46°+0.26°91%
NOAA GFS0.57°+0.40°88%
JMA GSM0.71°+0.53°76%
UK Met Office0.87°+0.86°62%
CMA GRAPES2.18°-2.18°7%
ECMWF IFS2.22°+2.22°4%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
forecast max21°at 10/11Zmin 10°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Zvariable 4kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming10/07Z→10/09Z330° 12kt
becoming10/15Z→10/17Zvariable 4kt
TAF LLBG 091704Z 0918/1018 VRB04KT CAVOK TX21/1011Z TN10/1004Z BECMG 1007/1009 33012KT BECMG 1015/1017 VRB04KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤16°C0%0%0/68
17°C0%0%0/68
18°C0%0%0/68
19°C0%0%0/68
20°C0%1%1/68
21°C100%3%2/68
22°C0%0%0/68
23°C0%9%6/68
24°C0%4%3/68
25°C0%16%11/68
≥26°C0%66%45/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
11°C
RJTT 2100Z
today high so far
12°C
at 00:00
forecast peak12°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests16°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+4.8°
observed 06:00 local
usually warmestsunset 16:36
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
7°10°13°16°19°08:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:00ECMWF 12°CNOW 11°C
6°9°12°15°18°21°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 12°CNOW 11°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RJTT, 8 obs
METAR RJTT 092100Z 04015KT 9999 -RA FEW010 BKN070 11/09 Q1018 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
06:00 11° 9° 040/15 BKN070 -RA
05:30 11° 9° 030/13 BKN080 -RA
05:00 11° 9° 040/13 BKN080 -RA
04:30 11° 9° 030/14 BKN060 -RA
04:00 11° 9° 040/14 BKN050 -RA
03:30 11° 10° 040/14 BKN080 -RA
03:00 11° 9° 030/13 BKN048 -RA
02:30 11° 9° 030/15 BKN045 -RA
current state
▼
METAR 11°C at 06:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (16°C this hour) RJTT, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~11°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (9°C→9°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (11°C @ 06:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥20°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥20°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 12°C, current 11°C @ 06:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 16.0°C usual 14.0°C–16.0°C
typical 14:00 19.0°C usual 18.0°C–20.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
24°C
14d high, 2026 11 06
avg high19.0°C
usual range18.0°C – 20.0°C
days ≥20°C5 / 14
days ≥21°C2 / 14
days ≥22°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–13:00
where the high landed on 52% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 13:00 local on 52% of 115 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 06:00)
implied peak~19°C (clim) vs ecmwf 12°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 06:00typically +4.8° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 16°peak already set on 16% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0015°+3.4°13%
0115°+3.7°16%
0215°+4.1°16%
0314°+4.4°16%
0414°+4.5°16%
0514°+4.7°16%
0614°+4.8°16%
0714°+4.3°16%
0815°+3.4°18%
0916°+2.6°21%
1017°+1.9°22%
1117°+1.3°40%
1218°+0.9°67%
1318°+0.5°81%
1418°+0.3°91%
1518°+0.2°96%
1617°+0.3°97%
1717°+0.3°97%
1817°+0.3°97%
1917°+0.2°99%
2016°+0.2°99%
2116°+0.2°99%
2216°+0.2°99%
2315°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken0.7° below normal across 240 days (-1.1 to -0.3).
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.6°87d
scattered+0.8°57d
broken-0.7°240d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 15kt1.1° below normal across 118 days (-1.6 to -0.6).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+3.6°13d
S+2.9°70d
SE+1.7°19d
VARIABLE+0.7°16d
E+0.5°38d
NE-1.1°118d
N-1.7°102d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 17°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 12°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
02:00 16°C 11°C 18°C 13°C 17°C
03:00 16°C 12°C 17°C 13°C 17°C
04:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 13°C 17°C
05:00 16°C 11°C 17°C 14°C 17°C
06:00 16°C 11°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
07:00 16°C 10°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
08:00 16°C 11°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
09:00 18°C 11°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
10:00 18°C 11°C 20°C 15°C 19°C
11:00 18°C 10°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
12:00 19°C 10°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
13:00 19°C 10°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
14:00 19°C 11°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
15:00 19°C 11°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
16:00 19°C 11°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
17:00 18°C 11°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
18:00 17°C 11°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
19:00 17°C 11°C 21°C 15°C 18°C
20:00 17°C 11°C 20°C 15°C 18°C
21:00 16°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
23:00 17°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 12°C —
11-09 14°C —
11-08 18°C —
11-07 20°C —
11-06 24°C —
11-05 18°C —
11-04 18°C —
11-03 19°C —
11-02 19°C —
11-01 20°C —
10-31 23°C —
10-30 19°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 20°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office11.7°12.9°1.13°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES13.0°13.1°1.30°
Environment Canada GEM11.6°15.0°1.36°
DWD ICON12.1°13.6°1.46°
NOAA GFS12.1°14.1°1.48°
ECMWF IFS12.2°13.2°1.77°
JMA GSM13.5°13.3°2.83°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office1.13°-0.05°63%
CMA GRAPES1.30°-0.04°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.36°-0.25°54%
DWD ICON1.46°-0.90°45%
NOAA GFS1.48°+0.22°45%
ECMWF IFS1.77°-1.45°39%
JMA GSM2.83°-2.55°13%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→11/00Z
base09/18Z→11/00Z010° 16kt; 8000m; light rain; few at 1,000ft; broken at 3,000ft
TAF RJTT 091705Z 0918/1100 01016KT 8000 -RA FEW010 BKN030
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤8°C0%0%0/68
9°C0%0%0/68
10°C0%0%0/68
11°C0%0%0/68
12°C42%1%1/68
13°C44%3%2/68
14°C14%3%2/68
15°C3%6%4/68
16°C0%13%9/68
17°C0%15%10/68
≥18°C0%59%40/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
11°C
RJTT 2100Z
today low so far
11°C
at 01:30
forecast low8°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests16°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+4.8°
observed 06:00 local
usually warmestsunset 16:36
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
5°8°11°14°17°20°08:0011:0014:0017:0020:0023:0002:0005:00ECMWF 6°CNOW 11°C
5°8°11°14°17°20°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 6°CNOW 11°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR RJTT, 8 obs
METAR RJTT 092100Z 04015KT 9999 -RA FEW010 BKN070 11/09 Q1018 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
06:00 11° 9° 040/15 BKN070 -RA
05:30 11° 9° 030/13 BKN080 -RA
05:00 11° 9° 040/13 BKN080 -RA
04:30 11° 9° 030/14 BKN060 -RA
04:00 11° 9° 040/14 BKN050 -RA
03:30 11° 10° 040/14 BKN080 -RA
03:00 11° 9° 030/13 BKN048 -RA
02:30 11° 9° 030/15 BKN045 -RA
current state
▼
METAR 11°C at 06:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (16°C this hour) RJTT, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~11°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (9°C→9°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (11°C @ 06:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥20°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥20°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 6°C, current 11°C @ 06:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 16.0°C usual 14.0°C–16.0°C
typical 14:00 19.0°C usual 18.0°C–20.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how cold it gets last 14 days
24°C
14d low, 2026 11 06
avg high19.0°C
usual range18.0°C – 20.0°C
days ≥20°C5 / 14
days ≥21°C2 / 14
days ≥22°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–13:00
where the high landed on 52% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 13:00 local on 52% of 115 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 06:00)
implied peak~19°C (clim) vs ecmwf 6°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 06:00typically +4.8° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 16°peak already set on 16% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0015°+3.4°13%
0115°+3.7°16%
0215°+4.1°16%
0314°+4.4°16%
0414°+4.5°16%
0514°+4.7°16%
0614°+4.8°16%
0714°+4.3°16%
0815°+3.4°18%
0916°+2.6°21%
1017°+1.9°22%
1117°+1.3°40%
1218°+0.9°67%
1318°+0.5°81%
1418°+0.3°91%
1518°+0.2°96%
1617°+0.3°97%
1717°+0.3°97%
1817°+0.3°97%
1917°+0.2°99%
2016°+0.2°99%
2116°+0.2°99%
2216°+0.2°99%
2315°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken0.7° below normal across 240 days (-1.1 to -0.3).
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.6°87d
scattered+0.8°57d
broken-0.7°240d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 15kt1.1° below normal across 118 days (-1.6 to -0.6).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+3.6°13d
S+2.9°70d
SE+1.7°19d
VARIABLE+0.7°16d
E+0.5°38d
NE-1.1°118d
N-1.7°102d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 12°C 19°C 14°C 18°C
01:00 16°C 12°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
02:00 16°C 11°C 18°C 13°C 17°C
03:00 16°C 12°C 17°C 13°C 17°C
04:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 13°C 17°C
05:00 16°C 11°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
06:00 16°C 11°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
07:00 16°C 10°C 17°C 14°C 16°C
08:00 16°C 11°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
09:00 18°C 11°C 19°C 15°C 18°C
10:00 18°C 11°C 20°C 15°C 19°C
11:00 18°C 10°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
12:00 19°C 10°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
13:00 19°C 10°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
14:00 19°C 11°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
15:00 19°C 11°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
16:00 19°C 11°C 24°C 16°C 20°C
17:00 18°C 11°C 23°C 16°C 19°C
18:00 17°C 11°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
19:00 17°C 11°C 21°C 15°C 18°C
20:00 17°C 11°C 20°C 15°C 18°C
21:00 16°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
22:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
23:00 17°C 12°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 12°C —
11-09 14°C —
11-08 18°C —
11-07 20°C —
11-06 24°C —
11-05 18°C —
11-04 18°C —
11-03 19°C —
11-02 19°C —
11-01 20°C —
10-31 23°C —
10-30 19°C —
10-29 17°C —
10-28 20°C —
what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office7.7°6.1°1.13°most accurate here
CMA GRAPES6.7°4.4°1.30°
Environment Canada GEM5.2°2.0°1.36°
DWD ICON8.1°5.6°1.46°
NOAA GFS9.5°7.9°1.48°
ECMWF IFS7.7°5.2°1.77°
JMA GSM9.5°7.6°2.83°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office1.13°-0.05°63%
CMA GRAPES1.30°-0.04°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.36°-0.25°54%
DWD ICON1.46°-0.90°45%
NOAA GFS1.48°+0.22°45%
ECMWF IFS1.77°-1.45°39%
JMA GSM2.83°-2.55°13%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→11/00Z
base09/18Z→11/00Z010° 16kt; 8000m; light rain; few at 1,000ft; broken at 3,000ft
TAF RJTT 091705Z 0918/1100 01016KT 8000 -RA FEW010 BKN030
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤4°C1%0%0/68
5°C1%0%0/68
6°C1%0%0/68
7°C7%0%0/68
8°C32%1%1/68
9°C44%3%2/68
10°C54%10%7/68
11°C46%21%14/68
12°C0%6%4/68
13°C0%21%14/68
≥14°C0%38%26/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 187% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
8°C
CYYZ 2100Z
today high so far
8°C
at 00:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.4°
observed 16:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:00
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
1°5°9°13°17°18:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:00ECMWF 10°CNOW 8°C
1°5°9°13°17°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 10°CNOW 8°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR CYYZ, 8 obs
METAR CYYZ 092100Z 31014KT 15SM BKN027 08/02 A2998 RMK SC7 SLP160
local temp dew wind cloud wx
16:00 8° 2° 310/14 BKN027 —
15:00 8° 2° 310/16 BKN027 —
14:00 8° 2° 310/16 BKN028 —
13:00 8° 2° 290/13 OVC025 —
12:00 8° 2° 310/13 OVC025 —
11:00 8° 2° 310/14 OVC024 —
10:00 8° 2° 300/13 OVC025 —
09:00 7° 2° 300/18 OVC025 —
current state
▼
METAR 8°C at 16:00 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (15°C this hour) CYYZ, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 8°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (2°C→2°C) drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 10°C, current 8°C @ 16:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 15.0°C usual 12.0°C–17.0°C
typical 14:00 15.0°C usual 11.0°C–18.0°C
noon → peak climb +2.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
23°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high15.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 18.0°C
days ≥16°C7 / 14
days ≥17°C6 / 14
days ≥18°C6 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 64% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 64% of 111 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-1.9°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:008°C
implied peak10°C vs ecmwf 10°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
8° now at 16:00peak already set on 87% of days by nowtypically only +0.4° left (p90 +2.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
007°+4.3°19%
017°+4.5°21%
026°+4.7°21%
036°+4.9°22%
046°+5.1°22%
056°+5.1°22%
066°+5.4°22%
075°+5.5°22%
086°+4.9°22%
097°+3.9°22%
108°+2.9°25%
119°+2.0°31%
129°+1.6°39%
1310°+1.1°46%
1410°+0.7°76%
1510°+0.5°79%
169°+0.4°87%
179°+0.4°90%
188°+0.3°91%
198°+0.4°91%
207°+0.3°94%
217°+0.2°96%
227°+0.1°99%
237°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken0.9° below normal across 163 days (-1.5 to -0.2).
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.8°66d
scattered+0.5°75d
broken-0.9°163d
overcast-0.4°70d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 14kt1.5° below normal across 65 days (-2.4 to -0.6).
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.8°36d
SE+1.5°57d
SW+1.3°52d
W-0.1°58d
E-1.0°46d
NW-1.5°65d
VARIABLE-1.7°12d
N-2.5°34d
NE-2.8°14d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 10°C 4°C 17°C 8°C 14°C
01:00 9°C 5°C 17°C 8°C 13°C
02:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 7°C 12°C
03:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 8°C 12°C
04:00 9°C 4°C 16°C 6°C 12°C
05:00 9°C 4°C 17°C 5°C 11°C
06:00 9°C 2°C 17°C 5°C 10°C
07:00 9°C 3°C 16°C 6°C 11°C
08:00 9°C 3°C 15°C 5°C 12°C
09:00 10°C 3°C 17°C 7°C 12°C
10:00 11°C 5°C 17°C 8°C 14°C
11:00 12°C 8°C 19°C 8°C 18°C
12:00 12°C 8°C 21°C 9°C 18°C
13:00 14°C 9°C 21°C 12°C 17°C
14:00 14°C 9°C 23°C 12°C 18°C
15:00 15°C 8°C 23°C 12°C 18°C
16:00 15°C 9°C 23°C 12°C 17°C
17:00 14°C 8°C 20°C 11°C 16°C
18:00 13°C 9°C 20°C 9°C 16°C
19:00 12°C 7°C 20°C 9°C 15°C
20:00 12°C 6°C 19°C 9°C 15°C
21:00 11°C 6°C 17°C 9°C 15°C
22:00 11°C 6°C 16°C 9°C 15°C
23:00 10°C 5°C 17°C 9°C 14°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 8°C —
11-08 11°C —
11-07 9°C —
11-06 13°C —
11-05 18°C —
11-04 19°C —
11-03 23°C —
11-02 18°C —
11-01 18°C —
10-31 15°C —
10-30 14°C —
10-29 23°C —
10-28 16°C —
10-27 10°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
NOAA GFS9.2°11.9°0.63°most accurate here
DWD ICON9.9°15.2°0.83°
ECMWF IFS8.7°14.7°0.94°
CMA GRAPES9.7°11.3°1.02°
UK Met Office9.4°12.1°1.03°
Environment Canada GEM9.5°14.6°1.37°
JMA GSM8.8°11.9°3.03°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
NOAA GFS0.63°+0.26°84%
DWD ICON0.83°-0.16°76%
ECMWF IFS0.94°-0.08°66%
CMA GRAPES1.02°+0.60°67%
UK Met Office1.03°+0.67°67%
Environment Canada GEM1.37°+1.07°46%
JMA GSM3.03°-2.94°17%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z310° 12kt gusting 22; >6 statute miles; broken at 2,500ft
temporarily09/21Z→09/23Zovercast at 2,000ft
from09/23Z onwards290° 12kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 2,500ft; overcast at 18,000ft
temporarily09/23Z→10/04Zbroken at 2,000ft; overcast at 15,000ft
from10/04Z onwards240° 6kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 2,500ft; overcast at 12,000ft
becoming10/07Z→10/09Z230° 8kt
from10/11Z onwards250° 10kt; >6 statute miles; few at 1,500ft; scattered at 11,000ft
temporarily10/11Z→10/17Zbroken at 1,500ft
becoming10/14Z→10/16Z270° 15kt gusting 25
from10/17Z onwards270° 15kt gusting 28; >6 statute miles; broken at 3,000ft
from10/22Z onwards290° 12kt gusting 22; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft
TAF CYYZ 092040Z 0921/1024 31012G22KT P6SM BKN025 TEMPO 0921/0923 OVC020 FM092300 29012KT P6SM BKN025 OVC180 TEMPO 0923/1004 BKN020 OVC150 FM100400 24006KT P6SM SCT025 OVC120 BECMG 1007/1009 23008KT FM101100 25010KT P6SM FEW015 SCT110 TEMPO 1011/1017 BKN015 BECMG 1014/1016 27015G25KT FM101700 27015G28KT P6SM BKN030 FM102200 29012G22KT P6SM SCT030 RMK NXT FCST BY 100000Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤4°C0%12%8/68
5°C0%3%2/68
6°C0%1%1/68
7°C0%6%4/68
8°C93%6%4/68
9°C3%10%7/68
10°C1%7%5/68
11°C0%9%6/68
12°C0%4%3/68
13°C0%13%9/68
≥14°C0%28%19/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 98% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
-2°C
EPWA 2100Z
today high so far
6°C
at 13:30
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
observed 22:00 local
usually warmestsunset 15:54
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-5°-2°1°4°7°10°00:0003:0006:0009:0012:0015:0018:0021:00ECMWF 5°CNOW -2°C
-7°-3°1°5°9°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 5°CNOW -2°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR EPWA, 8 obs
METAR EPWA 092100Z 15005KT 8000 NSC M02/M03 Q1021 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
22:00 -2° -3° 150/05 NSC —
21:30 -1° -2° 150/05 NSC —
21:00 -2° -3° 140/06 NSC —
20:30 -1° -3° 140/07 NSC —
20:00 -1° -2° 150/05 CAVOK —
19:30 0° -2° 130/04 CAVOK —
19:00 0° -2° 140/04 CAVOK —
18:30 1° -2° 120/04 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR -2°C at 22:00 local, -9.0°C vs 14d-median (7°C this hour) EPWA, running behind climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 6°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (-2°C→-3°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -9.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current -2°C @ 22:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-09
this hour median 7.0°C usual 4.0°C–8.0°C
typical 13:00 10.0°C usual 8.0°C–10.0°C
noon → peak climb +0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
13°C
14d high, 2026 10 27
avg high10.0°C
usual range8.0°C – 10.0°C
days ≥11°C1 / 14
days ≥12°C1 / 14
days ≥13°C1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–13:00
where the high landed on 60% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 13:00 local on 60% of 106 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 15:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 16:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 17:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=136
12:00 → 18:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00—
implied peak— vs ecmwf 5°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
-2° now at 22:00peak already set on 99% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
006°+3.9°21%
015°+4.2°21%
025°+4.4°21%
035°+4.4°21%
045°+4.6°21%
055°+4.7°21%
065°+4.7°21%
075°+4.5°21%
086°+3.9°21%
096°+3.0°21%
107°+2.1°28%
118°+1.2°40%
129°+0.7°60%
139°+0.3°84%
149°+0.2°97%
159°+0.2°97%
168°+0.3°97%
177°+0.4°97%
187°+0.4°97%
197°+0.3°97%
206°+0.4°97%
216°+0.3°97%
226°+0.2°99%
236°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.2°25d
scattered-0.7°71d
broken-1.5°139d
overcast-1.7°20d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSE at 5kt+0.8° across 77 days (-0.1 to +1.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.8°53d
SW+1.0°45d
SE+0.8°77d
E+0.1°32d
W-1.1°104d
NW-2.3°23d
NE-2.6°24d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 6°C -1°C 9°C 0°C 7°C
01:00 6°C -4°C 9°C -1°C 7°C
02:00 5°C -4°C 8°C -1°C 7°C
03:00 6°C -5°C 8°C -1°C 7°C
04:00 5°C -4°C 8°C -1°C 6°C
05:00 4°C -5°C 7°C -2°C 6°C
06:00 4°C -4°C 7°C -2°C 7°C
07:00 4°C -5°C 8°C -2°C 7°C
08:00 5°C -4°C 8°C -1°C 7°C
09:00 6°C -1°C 9°C 2°C 7°C
10:00 8°C 0°C 9°C 5°C 8°C
11:00 8°C 3°C 11°C 7°C 9°C
12:00 9°C 4°C 12°C 8°C 10°C
13:00 9°C 4°C 12°C 8°C 10°C
14:00 10°C 6°C 13°C 8°C 10°C
15:00 9°C 5°C 12°C 8°C 10°C
16:00 9°C 3°C 10°C 8°C 9°C
17:00 8°C 2°C 10°C 7°C 9°C
18:00 8°C 1°C 10°C 6°C 8°C
19:00 7°C 0°C 9°C 6°C 8°C
20:00 7°C -1°C 10°C 6°C 8°C
21:00 7°C -2°C 10°C 5°C 8°C
22:00 7°C -1°C 10°C 4°C 8°C
23:00 6°C -2°C 10°C 1°C 7°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 6°C —
11-08 7°C —
11-07 8°C —
11-06 10°C —
11-05 10°C —
11-04 10°C —
11-03 10°C —
11-02 8°C —
11-01 9°C —
10-31 10°C —
10-30 9°C —
10-29 10°C —
10-28 10°C —
10-27 13°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON4.7°4.2°0.62°most accurate here
UK Met Office5.2°4.1°0.69°
ECMWF IFS5.0°4.1°0.81°
NOAA GFS6.6°7.0°1.10°
CMA GRAPES5.5°5.4°1.10°
Environment Canada GEM5.0°3.1°1.33°
JMA GSM3.7°3.8°1.56°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.62°+0.01°86%
UK Met Office0.69°+0.26°82%
ECMWF IFS0.81°-0.56°72%
NOAA GFS1.10°+0.88°50%
CMA GRAPES1.10°-0.80°53%
Environment Canada GEM1.33°+1.22°43%
JMA GSM1.56°-1.43°37%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/21ZAMENDED
base09/21Z→10/21Z130° 5kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
possibly40%09/21Z→10/07Z3000m; mist
becoming10/13Z→10/15Zbroken at 700ft
temporarily10/13Z→10/16Z4000m; rain; mist
temporarily30%10/14Z→10/16Z2500m; snow rain
becoming10/16Z→10/18Z190° 10kt
TAF COR EPWA 092118Z 0921/1021 13005KT CAVOK PROB40 0921/1007 3000 BR BECMG 1013/1015 BKN007 TEMPO 1013/1016 4000 RA BR PROB30 TEMPO 1014/1016 2500 SNRA BECMG 1016/1018 19010KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤-1°C0%0%0/68
0°C0%0%0/68
1°C0%0%0/68
2°C0%3%2/68
3°C0%0%0/68
4°C0%9%6/68
5°C0%0%0/68
6°C100%6%4/68
7°C0%6%4/68
8°C0%15%10/68
≥9°C0%62%42/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.

Wellington

10:00 local
view on polymarket ↗
live obs
17°C
NZWN 2100Z
today high so far
17°C
at 10:00
forecast peak19°CMA GRAPES
typical further climb+2.2°
observed 10:00 local
usually warmestsunset 20:12
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
10°12°14°16°18°20°12:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 17°C
10°12°14°16°18°20°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 18°CNOW 17°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR NZWN, 8 obs
METAR NZWN 092100Z AUTO 17003KT 9999 OVC055/// 17/13 Q1021
local temp dew wind cloud wx
10:00 17° 13° 170/03 OVC055 —
09:30 16° 13° 190/03 BKN055 —
09:00 16° 13° 200/03 OVC055 —
08:30 16° 12° 210/01 OVC060 —
08:00 15° 13° 230/01 BKN060 —
07:30 15° 13° 210/01 BKN090 —
07:00 15° 12° 360/01 BKN100 —
06:30 14° 12° 340/01 FEW100 —
current state
✓
METAR 17°C at 10:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (14°C–19°C) NZWN, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~18°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint rising (13°C→13°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (17°C @ 10:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥19°C possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥19°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 18°C, current 17°C @ 10:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 16.0°C usual 14.0°C–19.0°C
typical 14:00 18.0°C usual 16.0°C–20.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
22°C
14d high, 2026 11 05
avg high18.0°C
usual range16.0°C – 20.0°C
days ≥19°C7 / 14
days ≥20°C4 / 14
days ≥21°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–15:00
where the high landed on 64% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 15:00 local on 64% of 129 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:00)
implied peak~18°C (clim) vs ecmwf 18°C
heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
17° now at 10:00typically +2.2° more (p90 +4.0°)expected peak 19°peak already set on 13% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0014°+3.8°9%
0114°+4.0°9%
0214°+4.2°9%
0314°+4.3°9%
0414°+4.3°9%
0514°+4.4°9%
0614°+4.5°7%
0714°+4.2°7%
0815°+3.5°7%
0915°+2.9°7%
1016°+2.2°13%
1117°+1.6°31%
1217°+1.1°49%
1317°+0.7°72%
1417°+0.6°85%
1517°+0.4°93%
1617°+0.3°94%
1717°+0.4°97%
1816°+0.3°99%
1916°+0.2°100%
2015°+0.3°100%
2115°+0.1°100%
2215°+0.1°100%
2315°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast1.3° below normal across 63 days (-1.9 to -0.8).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.8°74d
few+0.2°82d
scattered+0.4°53d
broken-0.2°116d
overcast-1.3°63d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowS at 3kt2.0° below normal across 87 days (-2.4 to -1.6).
coldernormalwarmer
NW+1.9°15d
N+0.8°227d
VARIABLE+0.2°27d
SW-0.3°10d
S-2.0°87d
SE-2.9°15d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 9°C 18°C 12°C 16°C
01:00 15°C 9°C 17°C 13°C 16°C
02:00 15°C 9°C 17°C 12°C 16°C
03:00 15°C 9°C 17°C 12°C 16°C
04:00 15°C 9°C 17°C 12°C 16°C
05:00 15°C 9°C 18°C 11°C 15°C
06:00 14°C 9°C 17°C 12°C 16°C
07:00 15°C 10°C 18°C 13°C 16°C
08:00 15°C 11°C 19°C 13°C 16°C
09:00 16°C 11°C 20°C 13°C 17°C
10:00 16°C 11°C 20°C 14°C 19°C
11:00 17°C 11°C 21°C 14°C 18°C
12:00 17°C 11°C 21°C 15°C 19°C
13:00 17°C 11°C 22°C 15°C 18°C
14:00 17°C 12°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
15:00 18°C 13°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
16:00 18°C 13°C 22°C 16°C 19°C
17:00 18°C 12°C 21°C 15°C 19°C
18:00 18°C 12°C 20°C 15°C 18°C
19:00 16°C 12°C 18°C 15°C 18°C
20:00 16°C 11°C 18°C 14°C 17°C
21:00 16°C 10°C 17°C 14°C 17°C
22:00 16°C 9°C 17°C 14°C 17°C
23:00 16°C 9°C 18°C 12°C 17°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 15°C —
11-09 17°C —
11-08 20°C —
11-07 21°C —
11-06 19°C —
11-05 22°C —
11-04 21°C —
11-03 19°C —
11-02 18°C —
11-01 16°C —
10-31 13°C —
10-30 18°C —
10-29 19°C —
10-28 17°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by2.3°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
CMA GRAPES19.0°19.8°0.76°most accurate here
UK Met Office17.8°18.6°0.78°
DWD ICON18.6°18.0°0.82°
Environment Canada GEM19.1°16.9°0.89°
ECMWF IFS18.6°17.3°0.93°
NOAA GFS17.2°18.1°1.03°
JMA GSM16.8°17.5°1.09°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
CMA GRAPES0.76°+0.01°72%
UK Met Office0.78°-0.41°75%
DWD ICON0.82°-0.33°72%
Environment Canada GEM0.89°-0.25°71%
ECMWF IFS0.93°-0.59°58%
NOAA GFS1.03°-0.65°55%
JMA GSM1.09°-0.67°53%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/21Z→10/24Z
base09/21Z→10/24Z030° 5kt; 10km+; few at 2,000ft; broken at 4,500ft
temporarily09/22Z→10/08Z6000m; showers rain
becoming10/08Z→10/10Z020° 15kt
temporarily10/08Z→10/16Z6000m; showers rain; broken at 1,400ft
becoming10/20Z→10/22Z360° 20kt gusting 30
TAF NZWN 092008Z 0921/1024 03005KT 9999 FEW020 BKN045 TEMPO 0922/1008 6000 SHRA BECMG 1008/1010 02015KT TEMPO 1008/1016 6000 SHRA BKN014 BECMG 1020/1022 36020G30KT
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤15°C0%13%9/68
16°C0%4%3/68
17°C11%10%7/68
18°C42%18%12/68
19°C40%32%22/68
20°C12%7%5/68
21°C2%12%8/68
22°C0%1%1/68
23°C0%0%0/68
24°C0%1%1/68
≥25°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 107% and climatology to 100%.
live obs
4°C
ZHHH 2100Z
today high so far
6°C
at 00:00
forecast peak13°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests11°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+6.6°
observed 05:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:29
00040812162024 now
live temperature, 24h °C local
-3°2°7°12°17°22°07:0010:0013:0016:0019:0022:0001:0004:00ECMWF 14°CNOW 4°C
-3°2°7°12°17°22°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 14°CNOW 4°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR ZHHH, 8 obs
METAR ZHHH 092100Z 05002MPS CAVOK 04/04 Q1034 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
05:00 4° 4° 050/04 CAVOK —
04:00 4° 3° 040/02 CAVOK —
03:00 4° 3° 360/02 CAVOK —
02:00 5° 2° 030/02 CAVOK —
01:00 5° 2° 010/02 CAVOK —
00:00 6° 3° 010/02 CAVOK —
23:00 7° 1° — CAVOK —
22:00 7° 1° 040/04 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 4°C at 05:00 local, -11.0°C vs 14d-median (15°C this hour) ZHHH, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~5°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.2°C/h, dewpoint falling (3°C→4°C) drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (4°C @ 05:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥21°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥21°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -11.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 14°C, current 4°C @ 05:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 15.0°C usual 13.0°C–16.0°C
typical 15:00 20.0°C usual 16.0°C–22.0°C
noon → peak climb +1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
25°C
14d high, 2026 10 31
avg high20.0°C
usual range16.0°C – 22.0°C
days ≥21°C5 / 14
days ≥22°C4 / 14
days ≥23°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 80% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 80% of 127 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 05:00)
implied peak~18°C (clim) vs ecmwf 14°C
heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
4° now at 05:00typically +6.6° more (p90 +12.0°)expected peak 11°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0015°+5.2°12%
0114°+5.7°10%
0214°+5.9°10%
0314°+6.3°12%
0413°+6.4°12%
0513°+6.6°12%
0613°+6.8°12%
0713°+6.9°12%
0814°+5.8°12%
0915°+4.5°12%
1016°+3.3°12%
1117°+2.2°16%
1218°+1.3°27%
1319°+0.8°42%
1419°+0.3°73%
1519°+0.1°94%
1619°+0.0°100%
1718°+0.0°100%
1817°+0.1°100%
1916°+0.3°100%
2016°+0.3°100%
2115°+0.1°100%
2215°+0.1°100%
2315°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear2.2° above normal across 56 days (+1.1 to +3.3).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+2.2°56d
few+1.5°29d
scattered-0.2°52d
broken-2.1°33d
overcast-4.4°41d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 4kt-0.8° across 74 days (-1.9 to +0.3) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SW+2.9°13d
E+2.8°61d
NW+1.4°12d
VARIABLE+1.4°33d
W+0.7°24d
NE-0.8°74d
N-2.4°81d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 16°C 6°C 23°C 13°C 16°C
01:00 15°C 6°C 22°C 13°C 17°C
02:00 15°C 10°C 22°C 13°C 17°C
03:00 15°C 9°C 21°C 13°C 17°C
04:00 15°C 8°C 21°C 13°C 16°C
05:00 15°C 8°C 21°C 13°C 16°C
06:00 15°C 7°C 17°C 13°C 16°C
07:00 14°C 6°C 17°C 13°C 15°C
08:00 15°C 6°C 18°C 13°C 16°C
09:00 15°C 7°C 18°C 13°C 16°C
10:00 15°C 9°C 19°C 14°C 17°C
11:00 17°C 11°C 20°C 14°C 18°C
12:00 17°C 12°C 21°C 15°C 20°C
13:00 18°C 13°C 23°C 16°C 20°C
14:00 19°C 13°C 25°C 16°C 21°C
15:00 19°C 13°C 25°C 16°C 21°C
16:00 18°C 13°C 25°C 15°C 21°C
17:00 18°C 11°C 24°C 15°C 21°C
18:00 17°C 9°C 24°C 14°C 19°C
19:00 16°C 9°C 23°C 14°C 18°C
20:00 16°C 9°C 23°C 14°C 18°C
21:00 16°C 9°C 23°C 13°C 18°C
22:00 16°C 7°C 23°C 14°C 17°C
23:00 15°C 7°C 23°C 13°C 17°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10 6°C —
11-09 13°C —
11-08 16°C —
11-07 18°C —
11-06 22°C —
11-05 19°C —
11-04 15°C —
11-03 16°C —
11-02 21°C —
11-01 23°C —
10-31 25°C —
10-30 23°C —
10-29 18°C —
10-28 20°C —
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
UK Met Office12.9°15.5°1.15°most accurate here
DWD ICON13.3°14.6°1.18°
CMA GRAPES12.5°14.5°1.23°
Environment Canada GEM12.9°14.6°1.36°
NOAA GFS12.8°14.0°1.47°
ECMWF IFS14.7°16.0°1.51°
JMA GSM15.6°17.5°1.63°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.7°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
UK Met Office1.15°-0.54°50%
DWD ICON1.18°-0.98°51%
CMA GRAPES1.23°-0.70°46%
Environment Canada GEM1.36°-0.86°45%
NOAA GFS1.47°-1.31°36%
ECMWF IFS1.51°-1.29°33%
JMA GSM1.63°-1.40°50%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 76 days.
forecast TAF, valid 09/18Z→10/18Z
forecast max16°at 10/07Zmin 4°issued by the national met service
base09/18Z→10/18Z050° 3mps; 6000m; no significant cloud
TAF ZHHH 091502Z 0918/1018 05003MPS 6000 NSC TX16/1007Z TN04/0922Z
market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤8°C0%1%1/68
9°C0%0%0/68
10°C0%3%2/68
11°C0%1%1/68
12°C0%1%1/68
13°C6%3%2/68
14°C26%4%3/68
15°C55%1%1/68
16°C13%6%4/68
17°C1%3%2/68
≥18°C0%75%51/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 103% and climatology to 100%.