Wellington (NZWN) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤15°C0%0¢

16°C0%0¢

17°C0%0¢

18°C>99%94¢

19°C0%5¢

20°C0%0¢

21°C0%0¢

22°C0%0¢

23°C0%0¢

24°C0%0¢

≥25°C0%0¢

Our estimate, from CMA GRAPES's forecast made early this morning (19.3° after taking out its usual 0.5° cold lean here), narrowed by what NZWN has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR NZWN, 8 obs

METAR NZWN 100700Z AUTO 01012KT 9999 -RA BKN026/// BKN033/// 18/16 Q1015

local temp dew wind cloud wx

20:00 18° 16° 010/12 BKN026 -RA

19:30 18° 16° 030/14 OVC041 —

19:00 18° 17° 030/12 OVC047 —

18:30 18° 17° 020/07 BKN030 -RA

18:00 16° 15° 320/01 BKN034 RA BR

17:30 16° 15° 230/03 OVC055 RA BR

17:00 16° 16° 190/01 BKN037 RA BR

16:30 16° 15° 210/02 BKN041 -RA

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▲

METAR 18°C at 20:00 local, +2.0°C vs 14d-median (16°C this hour) NZWN, running ahead of climatology

✓

Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 18°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (16°C→16°C) drying — accelerates warming

●

Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 18°C, current 18°C @ 20:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days NZWN, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 16.0°C usual 14.0°C–17.0°C

typical 14:00 18.0°C usual 16.0°C–20.0°C

noon → peak climb +1.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

22°C

14d high, 2026 11 05

avg high18.0°C

usual range16.0°C – 20.0°C

days ≥19°C7 / 14

days ≥20°C4 / 14

days ≥21°C3 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

12:00–15:00

where the high landed on 64% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 15:00 local on 64% of 129 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 19:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 20:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=134

today @ 12:00—

implied peak— vs ecmwf 18°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations NZWN

heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

18° now at 20:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0014°+3.8°9%

0114°+4.0°9%

0214°+4.2°9%

0314°+4.3°9%

0414°+4.3°9%

0514°+4.4°9%

0614°+4.5°7%

0714°+4.2°7%

0815°+3.5°7%

0915°+2.9°7%

1016°+2.2°13%

1117°+1.6°31%

1217°+1.1°49%

1317°+0.7°72%

1417°+0.6°85%

1517°+0.4°93%

1617°+0.3°94%

1717°+0.4°97%

1816°+0.3°99%

1916°+0.2°100%

2015°+0.3°100%

2115°+0.1°100%

2215°+0.1°100%

2315°+0.1°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken-0.2° across 116 days (-0.5 to +0.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

clear+0.8°74d

few+0.2°82d

scattered+0.4°53d

broken-0.2°116d

overcast-1.3°63d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowN at 12kt0.8° above normal across 227 days (+0.6 to +1.0).

coldernormalwarmer

NW+1.9°15d

N+0.8°227d

VARIABLE+0.2°27d

SW-0.3°10d

S-2.0°87d

SE-2.9°15d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	16°C	9°C	18°C	12°C	16°C
01:00	15°C	9°C	17°C	13°C	16°C
02:00	15°C	9°C	17°C	12°C	16°C
03:00	15°C	9°C	17°C	12°C	16°C
04:00	15°C	9°C	17°C	12°C	16°C
05:00	15°C	9°C	18°C	11°C	15°C
06:00	14°C	9°C	17°C	12°C	16°C
07:00	15°C	10°C	18°C	13°C	16°C
08:00	15°C	11°C	19°C	13°C	16°C
09:00	16°C	11°C	20°C	13°C	17°C
10:00	16°C	11°C	20°C	14°C	19°C
11:00	17°C	11°C	21°C	14°C	18°C
12:00	17°C	11°C	21°C	15°C	19°C
13:00	17°C	11°C	22°C	15°C	18°C
14:00	17°C	12°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
15:00	18°C	13°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
16:00	18°C	13°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
17:00	18°C	12°C	21°C	15°C	19°C
18:00	18°C	12°C	20°C	15°C	18°C
19:00	16°C	12°C	18°C	15°C	18°C
20:00	16°C	11°C	18°C	14°C	17°C
21:00	16°C	10°C	17°C	14°C	17°C
22:00	16°C	9°C	17°C	14°C	17°C
23:00	16°C	9°C	18°C	12°C	17°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-10 15°C —

11-09 17°C —

11-08 20°C —

11-07 21°C —

11-06 19°C —

11-05 22°C —

11-04 21°C —

11-03 19°C —

11-02 18°C —

11-01 16°C —

10-31 13°C —

10-30 18°C —

10-29 19°C —

10-28 17°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ECMWF19°20°-0.5°

07-11ECMWF19°21°-1.5°

06-11ECMWF20°19°+1.1°

05-11CMA GRAPES20°22°-1.5°

04-11CMA GRAPES19°21°-1.7°

03-11CMA GRAPES18°19°-0.8°

02-11ECMWF18°18°+0.0°

01-11ECMWF17°16°+0.7°

31-10ECMWF15°13°+1.7°

30-10ECMWF19°18°+0.7°

29-10CMA GRAPES17°19°-2.3°

28-10CMA GRAPES16°17°-0.7°

27-10CMA GRAPES15°16°-0.6°

26-10ECMWF17°18°-1.1°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.0°, within a degree on 53% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by3.5°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

UK Met Office17.4°19.2°0.78°most accurate here

CMA GRAPES18.5°19.9°0.86°

Environment Canada GEM19.1°16.9°1.03°

DWD ICON18.1°17.8°1.12°

ECMWF IFS20.2°17.3°1.27°

NOAA GFS16.7°18.2°1.29°

JMA GSM17.9°16.7°2.01°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

UK Met Office0.78°-0.29°68%

CMA GRAPES0.86°-0.36°66%

Environment Canada GEM1.03°-0.48°63%

DWD ICON1.12°-0.87°47%

ECMWF IFS1.27°-1.21°45%

NOAA GFS1.29°-1.16°45%

JMA GSM2.01°-2.00°21%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12ZAMENDED

base10/06Z→11/12Z020° 5kt; 10km+; light rain; scattered at 1,400ft; broken at 2,000ft

temporarily10/06Z→10/09Z4000m; heavy rain

becoming10/08Z→10/10Z020° 15kt gusting 25

temporarily10/14Z→10/18Z6000m; showers rain; broken at 1,200ft

becoming10/21Z→10/23Z360° 20kt gusting 35

temporarily11/00Z→11/03Z6000m; showers rain

becoming11/09Z→11/11Z340° 15kt gusting 25

TAF COR NZWN 100507Z 1006/1112 02005KT 9999 -RA SCT014 BKN020 TEMPO 1006/1009 4000 +RA BECMG 1008/1010 02015G25KT TEMPO 1014/1018 6000 SHRA BKN012 BECMG 1021/1023 36020G35KT TEMPO 1100/1103 6000 SHRA BECMG 1109/1111 34015G25KT

market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤15°C0%13%9/68

16°C0%4%3/68

17°C0%10%7/68

18°C94%18%12/68

19°C5%32%22/68

20°C0%7%5/68

21°C0%12%8/68

22°C0%1%1/68

23°C0%0%0/68

24°C0%1%1/68

≥25°C0%0%0/68

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.