Warsaw (EPWA) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤0°C8%0¢

1°C11%0¢

2°C17%6¢

3°C14%37¢

4°C18%46¢

5°C17%13¢

6°C10%3¢

7°C3%0¢

8°C1%0¢

9°C<1%0¢

≥10°C<1%0¢

Our estimate, from ECMWF's forecast made early this morning (4.4° after taking out its usual 0.3° cold lean here), narrowed by what EPWA has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR EPWA, 8 obs

METAR EPWA 100700Z 14006KT 5000 BR NSC M01/M02 Q1014 TEMPO 4000 BR

local temp dew wind cloud wx

08:00 -1° -2° 140/06 NSC BR BR

07:30 -2° -2° 130/06 NSC BR

07:00 -2° -3° 120/07 NSC BR BR

06:30 -2° -3° 120/06 NSC BR

06:00 -2° -3° 130/06 NSC BR

05:30 -3° -3° 120/06 NSC BR

05:00 -3° -3° 120/05 NSC BR

04:30 -3° -4° 120/04 NSC BR

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

✓

METAR -1°C at 08:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (-1°C–7°C) EPWA, tracking climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~-1°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint rising (-2°C→-2°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely

!

Clock test: METAR (-1°C @ 08:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥11°C possible 14d records show 1/14 days reached ≥11°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -6.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current -1°C @ 08:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days EPWA, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 5.0°C usual -1.0°C–7.0°C

typical 13:00 10.0°C usual 8.0°C–10.0°C

noon → peak climb +0.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

13°C

14d high, 2026 10 27

avg high10.0°C

usual range8.0°C – 10.0°C

days ≥11°C1 / 14

days ≥12°C1 / 14

days ≥13°C1 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

12:00–13:00

where the high landed on 62% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 13:00 local on 62% of 104 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 19:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 20:00-2.5°C mean, 5y, n=132

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:00)

implied peak~9°C (clim) vs ecmwf 5°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations EPWA

heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

-1° now at 08:00typically +3.7° more (p90 +8.0°)expected peak 3°peak already set on 25% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

005°+3.6°25%

015°+3.9°25%

025°+4.1°25%

035°+4.1°25%

045°+4.3°25%

054°+4.4°25%

064°+4.4°25%

075°+4.2°25%

085°+3.7°25%

096°+2.8°25%

107°+2.0°31%

118°+1.2°43%

128°+0.6°64%

139°+0.3°87%

148°+0.2°97%

158°+0.2°97%

167°+0.3°97%

177°+0.4°97%

186°+0.4°97%

196°+0.3°97%

206°+0.4°97%

216°+0.3°97%

225°+0.2°98%

235°+0.1°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it

coldernormalwarmer

few+0.2°25d

scattered-0.7°71d

broken-1.5°139d

overcast-1.7°20d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowSE at 6kt+0.8° across 77 days (-0.1 to +1.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

S+2.8°53d

SW+1.0°45d

SE+0.8°77d

E+0.1°32d

W-1.1°104d

NW-2.3°23d

NE-2.6°24d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	6°C	-1°C	9°C	0°C	7°C
01:00	6°C	-4°C	9°C	-1°C	7°C
02:00	5°C	-4°C	8°C	-1°C	7°C
03:00	6°C	-5°C	8°C	-1°C	7°C
04:00	5°C	-4°C	8°C	-1°C	6°C
05:00	4°C	-5°C	7°C	-2°C	6°C
06:00	4°C	-4°C	7°C	-2°C	7°C
07:00	4°C	-5°C	8°C	-2°C	7°C
08:00	5°C	-4°C	8°C	-1°C	7°C
09:00	6°C	-1°C	9°C	2°C	7°C
10:00	8°C	0°C	9°C	5°C	8°C
11:00	8°C	3°C	11°C	7°C	9°C
12:00	9°C	4°C	12°C	8°C	10°C
13:00	9°C	4°C	12°C	8°C	10°C
14:00	10°C	6°C	13°C	8°C	10°C
15:00	9°C	5°C	12°C	8°C	10°C
16:00	9°C	3°C	10°C	8°C	9°C
17:00	8°C	2°C	10°C	7°C	9°C
18:00	8°C	1°C	10°C	6°C	8°C
19:00	7°C	0°C	9°C	6°C	8°C
20:00	7°C	-1°C	10°C	6°C	8°C
21:00	7°C	-2°C	10°C	5°C	8°C
22:00	7°C	-1°C	10°C	4°C	8°C
23:00	6°C	-2°C	10°C	1°C	7°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 6°C —

11-08 7°C —

11-07 8°C —

11-06 10°C —

11-05 10°C —

11-04 10°C —

11-03 10°C —

11-02 8°C —

11-01 9°C —

10-31 10°C —

10-30 9°C —

10-29 10°C —

10-28 10°C —

10-27 13°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ECMWF5°7°-2.0°

07-11ECMWF6°8°-1.7°

06-11ECMWF10°10°-0.2°

05-11ECMWF10°10°+0.1°

04-11ECMWF9°10°-1.1°

03-11UK Met Office8°10°-1.6°

02-11UK Met Office7°8°-0.8°

01-11UK Met Office6°9°-3.0°

31-10UK Met Office9°10°-1.0°

30-10UK Met Office9°9°-0.2°

29-10UK Met Office10°10°+0.5°

28-10UK Met Office10°10°-0.4°

27-10UK Met Office11°13°-2.1°

26-10UK Met Office11°11°-0.4°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.0°, within a degree on 50% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by4.0°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON3.7°4.0°0.94°most accurate here

ECMWF IFS3.3°3.3°0.95°

UK Met Office4.3°4.3°0.96°

JMA GSM3.5°4.3°1.18°

NOAA GFS7.3°6.0°1.23°

Environment Canada GEM3.5°3.4°1.24°

CMA GRAPES4.9°4.4°1.61°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON0.94°-0.30°63%

ECMWF IFS0.95°-0.36°58%

UK Met Office0.96°-0.34°68%

JMA GSM1.18°-0.49°63%

NOAA GFS1.23°+0.88°61%

Environment Canada GEM1.24°+0.18°45%

CMA GRAPES1.61°-1.33°45%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06ZAMENDED

base10/06Z→11/06Z140° 5kt; 8000m; no significant cloud

temporarily10/06Z→10/09Z4000m; mist

becoming10/13Z→10/16Z280° 10kt; 4000m; rain; mist; broken at 800ft

temporarily10/18Z→10/20Z2000m; rain snow; broken at 400ft

becoming10/20Z→10/22Z5000m; mist

temporarily10/20Z→11/06Z3000m; mist

possibly40%10/21Z→11/06Z1500m; mist; broken at 300ft

TAF AMD EPWA 100613Z 1006/1106 14005KT 8000 NSC TEMPO 1006/1009 4000 BR BECMG 1013/1016 28010KT 4000 RA BR BKN008 TEMPO 1018/1020 2000 RASN BKN004 BECMG 1020/1022 5000 BR TEMPO 1020/1106 3000 BR PROB40 1021/1106 1500 BR BKN003

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤0°C0%0%0/67

1°C0%0%0/67

2°C6%3%2/67

3°C37%1%1/67

4°C46%10%7/67

5°C13%0%0/67

6°C3%6%4/67

7°C0%6%4/67

8°C0%16%11/67

9°C0%6%4/67

≥10°C0%51%34/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 106% and climatology to 100%.