Toronto (CYYZ) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤8°C<1%0¢

9°C<1%0¢

10°C<1%0¢

11°C1%0¢

12°C2%0¢

13°C16%1¢

14°C37%3¢

15°C16%26¢

16°C14%57¢

17°C8%12¢

≥18°C5%0¢

Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (15.6° after taking out its usual 0.6° cold lean here), narrowed by what CYYZ has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR CYYZ, 8 obs

METAR CYYZ 100700Z 21004KT 170V240 15SM SCT130 BKN160 08/04 A2991 RMK AC3AC4 SLP134

local temp dew wind cloud wx

02:00 8° 4° 210/04 BKN160 —

01:00 7° 4° 210/05 BKN140 —

00:00 7° 4° 220/05 OVC150 —

23:00 7° 4° 190/04 BKN130 —

22:00 7° 4° 240/07 BKN140 —

21:00 8° 4° 260/07 BKN026 —

20:00 8° 4° 280/12 OVC023 —

19:00 8° 3° 290/11 BKN023 —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

✓

METAR 8°C at 02:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (7°C–12°C) CYYZ, tracking climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=13) — projects to ~10°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (4°C→4°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely

!

Clock test: METAR (8°C @ 02:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥16°C possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥16°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 14°C, current 8°C @ 02:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days CYYZ, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 9.0°C usual 7.0°C–12.0°C

typical 14:00 15.0°C usual 11.0°C–18.0°C

noon → peak climb +2.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

23°C

14d high, 2026 11 03

avg high15.0°C

usual range11.0°C – 18.0°C

days ≥16°C7 / 14

days ≥17°C6 / 14

days ≥18°C6 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

13:00–15:00

where the high landed on 63% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 63% of 109 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 14:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 15:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 16:00-0.0°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 17:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 18:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 19:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 20:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=66

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 02:00)

implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 14°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations CYYZ

heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

8° now at 02:00typically +4.5° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 12°peak already set on 19% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

007°+4.2°18%

016°+4.4°19%

026°+4.5°19%

036°+4.7°21%

046°+4.9°21%

056°+4.9°21%

065°+5.1°22%

075°+5.2°22%

086°+4.7°22%

097°+3.7°22%

108°+2.8°25%

119°+1.9°33%

129°+1.5°41%

139°+1.0°50%

149°+0.7°76%

159°+0.5°79%

169°+0.5°86%

178°+0.4°89%

188°+0.3°91%

197°+0.4°91%

207°+0.3°94%

217°+0.2°95%

227°+0.2°98%

236°+0.0°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken0.9° below normal across 163 days (-1.5 to -0.2).

coldernormalwarmer

few+0.8°66d

scattered+0.5°75d

broken-0.9°163d

overcast-0.4°70d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowSW at 4kt+1.3° across 52 days (-0.3 to +3.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

S+2.8°36d

SE+1.5°57d

SW+1.3°52d

W-0.1°58d

E-1.0°46d

NW-1.5°65d

VARIABLE-1.7°12d

N-2.5°34d

NE-2.8°14d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	10°C	4°C	17°C	8°C	14°C
01:00	9°C	5°C	17°C	8°C	13°C
02:00	9°C	4°C	17°C	7°C	12°C
03:00	9°C	4°C	17°C	8°C	12°C
04:00	9°C	4°C	16°C	6°C	12°C
05:00	9°C	4°C	17°C	5°C	11°C
06:00	9°C	2°C	17°C	5°C	10°C
07:00	9°C	3°C	16°C	6°C	11°C
08:00	9°C	3°C	15°C	5°C	12°C
09:00	10°C	3°C	17°C	7°C	12°C
10:00	11°C	5°C	17°C	8°C	14°C
11:00	12°C	8°C	19°C	8°C	18°C
12:00	12°C	8°C	21°C	9°C	18°C
13:00	14°C	9°C	21°C	12°C	17°C
14:00	14°C	9°C	23°C	12°C	18°C
15:00	15°C	8°C	23°C	12°C	18°C
16:00	15°C	9°C	23°C	12°C	17°C
17:00	14°C	8°C	20°C	11°C	16°C
18:00	13°C	9°C	20°C	9°C	16°C
19:00	12°C	7°C	20°C	9°C	15°C
20:00	12°C	6°C	19°C	9°C	15°C
21:00	11°C	6°C	17°C	9°C	15°C
22:00	11°C	6°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
23:00	10°C	5°C	17°C	9°C	14°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 8°C —

11-08 11°C —

11-07 9°C —

11-06 13°C —

11-05 18°C —

11-04 19°C —

11-03 23°C —

11-02 18°C —

11-01 18°C —

10-31 15°C —

10-30 14°C —

10-29 23°C —

10-28 16°C —

10-27 10°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ICON12°11°+0.6°

07-11ICON10°9°+0.6°

06-11ICON13°13°+0.2°

05-11Environment Canada GEM17°18°-1.1°

04-11ICON20°19°+1.3°

03-11Environment Canada GEM22°23°-0.6°

02-11ICON19°18°+1.1°

01-11ICON16°18°-1.7°

31-10ICON15°15°-0.0°

30-10ICON15°14°+0.7°

29-10ICON22°23°-1.4°

28-10ICON14°16°-1.5°

27-10ICON10°10°+0.1°

26-10ICON15°15°+0.3°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 0.8°, within a degree on 61% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by3.8°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON15.0°11.4°0.89°most accurate here

Environment Canada GEM15.4°12.0°0.94°

NOAA GFS15.2°10.3°0.96°

ECMWF IFS14.2°10.1°1.15°

UK Met Office12.9°9.4°1.35°

CMA GRAPES11.6°7.5°1.90°

JMA GSM12.2°7.5°2.97°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON0.89°-0.55°64%

Environment Canada GEM0.94°-0.03°62%

NOAA GFS0.96°-0.18°62%

ECMWF IFS1.15°-0.83°62%

UK Met Office1.35°-1.02°41%

CMA GRAPES1.90°-1.53°38%

JMA GSM2.97°-2.92°21%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z

base10/06Z→11/12Z240° 6kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 13,000ft

becoming10/07Z→10/09Z230° 8kt

from10/11Z onwards250° 10kt; >6 statute miles; few at 1,500ft; scattered at 11,000ft

becoming10/14Z→10/16Z270° 15kt gusting 25

becoming10/20Z→10/22Z290° 12kt

from10/22Z onwards290° 12kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft

becoming11/00Z→11/02Z300° 8kt

TAF CYYZ 100540Z 1006/1112 24006KT P6SM BKN130 BECMG 1007/1009 23008KT FM101100 25010KT P6SM FEW015 SCT110 BECMG 1014/1016 27015G25KT BECMG 1020/1022 29012KT FM102200 29012KT P6SM SCT030 BECMG 1100/1102 30008KT RMK NXT FCST BY 100900Z

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤8°C0%31%21/67

9°C0%12%8/67

10°C0%6%4/67

11°C0%7%5/67

12°C0%4%3/67

13°C1%13%9/67

14°C3%6%4/67

15°C26%4%3/67

16°C57%1%1/67

17°C12%0%0/67

≥18°C0%13%9/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.