Tokyo (RJTT) temperature today: live low, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's low, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤4°C0%0¢

5°C0%1¢

6°C1%1¢

7°C2%3¢

8°C3%4¢

9°C5%43¢

10°C7%57¢

11°C82%50¢

12°C0%0¢

13°C0%0¢

≥14°C0%0¢

Our estimate, from GFS's forecast made early this morning (8.8° after taking out its usual 0.7° cold lean here), narrowed by what RJTT has reported so far and by how much it usually still falls after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR RJTT, 8 obs

METAR RJTT 100700Z 04013KT 9999 FEW020 BKN150 12/08 Q1018 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

16:00 12° 8° 040/13 BKN150 —

15:30 12° 7° 030/12 BKN140 —

15:00 12° 7° 040/12 BKN140 —

14:30 12° 7° 030/11 BKN080 —

14:00 12° 8° 030/13 BKN080 —

13:30 11° 7° 030/13 BKN080 —

13:00 11° 7° 030/13 BKN080 —

12:30 11° 7° 010/11 BKN080 -RA

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▼

METAR 12°C at 16:00 local, -7.0°C vs 14d-median (19°C this hour) RJTT, running behind climatology

✓

Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's minimum so far is 11°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (7°C→8°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -7.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 7°C, current 12°C @ 16:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days RJTT, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 19.0°C usual 16.0°C–20.0°C

typical 14:00 19.0°C usual 18.0°C–20.0°C

noon → peak climb +0.0°C

how cold it gets last 14 days

24°C

14d low, 2026 11 06

avg high19.0°C

usual range18.0°C – 20.0°C

days ≥20°C5 / 14

days ≥21°C2 / 14

days ≥22°C2 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

12:00–13:00

where the high landed on 52% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 13:00 local on 52% of 115 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 19:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 20:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

today @ 12:0011°C

implied peak11°C vs ecmwf 7°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations RJTT

heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

12° now at 16:00peak already set on 97% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0015°+3.4°13%

0115°+3.7°16%

0215°+4.1°16%

0314°+4.4°16%

0414°+4.5°16%

0514°+4.7°16%

0614°+4.8°16%

0714°+4.3°16%

0815°+3.4°18%

0916°+2.6°21%

1017°+1.9°22%

1117°+1.3°40%

1218°+0.9°67%

1318°+0.5°81%

1418°+0.3°91%

1518°+0.2°96%

1617°+0.3°97%

1717°+0.3°97%

1817°+0.3°97%

1917°+0.2°99%

2016°+0.2°99%

2116°+0.2°99%

2216°+0.2°99%

2315°+0.2°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken0.7° below normal across 240 days (-1.1 to -0.3).

coldernormalwarmer

few+1.6°87d

scattered+0.8°57d

broken-0.7°240d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowNE at 13kt1.1° below normal across 118 days (-1.6 to -0.6).

coldernormalwarmer

SW+3.6°13d

S+2.9°70d

SE+1.7°19d

VARIABLE+0.7°16d

E+0.5°38d

NE-1.1°118d

N-1.7°102d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	16°C	12°C	19°C	14°C	18°C
01:00	16°C	12°C	19°C	14°C	17°C
02:00	16°C	11°C	18°C	13°C	17°C
03:00	16°C	12°C	17°C	13°C	17°C
04:00	16°C	12°C	18°C	13°C	17°C
05:00	16°C	11°C	17°C	14°C	16°C
06:00	16°C	11°C	17°C	14°C	16°C
07:00	16°C	10°C	17°C	14°C	16°C
08:00	16°C	11°C	18°C	14°C	17°C
09:00	18°C	11°C	19°C	15°C	18°C
10:00	18°C	11°C	20°C	15°C	19°C
11:00	18°C	10°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
12:00	19°C	10°C	23°C	16°C	19°C
13:00	19°C	10°C	24°C	16°C	20°C
14:00	19°C	11°C	24°C	16°C	20°C
15:00	19°C	11°C	24°C	16°C	20°C
16:00	19°C	11°C	24°C	16°C	20°C
17:00	18°C	11°C	23°C	16°C	19°C
18:00	17°C	11°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
19:00	17°C	11°C	21°C	15°C	18°C
20:00	17°C	11°C	20°C	15°C	18°C
21:00	16°C	12°C	20°C	14°C	18°C
22:00	17°C	12°C	21°C	14°C	18°C
23:00	17°C	12°C	20°C	14°C	18°C

observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-10 12°C —

11-09 14°C —

11-08 18°C —

11-07 20°C —

11-06 24°C —

11-05 18°C —

11-04 18°C —

11-03 19°C —

11-02 19°C —

11-01 20°C —

10-31 23°C —

10-30 19°C —

10-29 17°C —

10-28 20°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid lowmiss

08-11GFS11°12°-1.0°

07-11GFS12°13°-1.1°

06-11GFS15°16°-0.8°

05-11GFS16°13°+2.9°

04-11GFS16°13°+2.6°

03-11GFS14°13°+0.8°

02-11GFS15°14°+1.0°

01-11GFS14°13°+1.2°

31-10GFS16°16°+0.1°

30-10GFS16°14°+1.9°

29-10GFS14°13°+0.7°

28-10GFS13°14°-0.6°

27-10JMA18°16°+2.4°

26-10JMA18°17°+1.3°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.2°, within a degree on 50% of days.

what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by4.5°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

NOAA GFS9.6°7.8°1.21°most accurate here

JMA GSM9.7°8.8°1.74°

UK Met Office8.0°6.6°2.11°

DWD ICON7.7°5.1°2.27°

ECMWF IFS7.9°4.9°2.69°

CMA GRAPES6.7°4.3°3.69°

Environment Canada GEM5.2°2.0°3.82°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

NOAA GFS1.21°-0.80°42%

JMA GSM1.74°-1.35°37%

UK Met Office2.11°-1.88°24%

DWD ICON2.27°-2.15°18%

ECMWF IFS2.69°-2.51°18%

CMA GRAPES3.69°-3.62°5%

Environment Canada GEM3.82°-3.56°11%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z

base10/06Z→11/12Z030° 12kt; 10km+; few at 1,500ft; scattered at 6,000ft

becoming11/03Z→11/06Z080° 6kt

becoming11/09Z→11/12Z300° 4kt

TAF RJTT 100505Z 1006/1112 03012KT 9999 FEW015 SCT060 BECMG 1103/1106 08006KT BECMG 1109/1112 30004KT

market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤4°C0%0%0/68

5°C1%0%0/68

6°C1%0%0/68

7°C3%0%0/68

8°C4%1%1/68

9°C43%3%2/68

10°C57%10%7/68

11°C50%21%14/68

12°C0%6%4/68

13°C0%21%14/68

≥14°C0%38%26/68

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 160% and climatology to 100%.