Shanghai (ZSPD) temperature today: live low, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's low, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤5°C<1%2¢

6°C<1%5¢

7°C2%26¢

8°C13%3¢

9°C85%75¢

10°C0%0¢

11°C0%0¢

12°C0%0¢

13°C0%0¢

14°C0%0¢

≥15°C0%0¢

Our estimate, from ECMWF's forecast made early this morning (9.0° after taking out its usual 0.8° warm lean here), narrowed by what ZSPD has reported so far and by how much it usually still falls after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR ZSPD, 8 obs

METAR ZSPD 100700Z 36006MPS CAVOK 15/05 Q1029 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

15:00 15° 5° 360/12 CAVOK —

14:30 15° 5° 350/12 CAVOK —

14:00 15° 5° 360/12 CAVOK —

13:30 15° 5° 340/14 CAVOK —

13:00 15° 5° 330/14 CAVOK —

12:30 15° 5° 340/14 CAVOK —

12:00 15° 5° 320/14 CAVOK —

11:30 14° 5° 330/14 CAVOK —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▼

METAR 15°C at 15:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (20°C this hour) ZSPD, running behind climatology

✓

Peak hour 12:00 has passed — today's minimum so far is 9°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (5°C→5°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 10°C, current 15°C @ 15:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days ZSPD, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 20.0°C usual 19.0°C–22.0°C

typical 12:00 21.0°C usual 20.0°C–23.0°C

noon → peak climb not enough history

how cold it gets last 14 days

26°C

14d low, 2026 11 01

avg high21.0°C

usual range20.0°C – 23.0°C

days ≥22°C4 / 14

days ≥23°C4 / 14

days ≥24°C3 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

11:00–12:00

where the high landed on 57% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 57% of 126 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00-0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 19:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 20:00-2.9°C mean, 5y, n=134

today @ 12:0015°C

implied peak— vs ecmwf 10°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations ZSPD

heating passport climb to peak 136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

15° now at 15:00peak already set on 99% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0016°+4.1°9%

0116°+4.4°9%

0215°+4.5°10%

0315°+4.7°12%

0415°+4.8°12%

0515°+4.7°12%

0615°+4.8°12%

0716°+4.0°12%

0817°+2.8°12%

0918°+1.9°22%

1019°+1.2°40%

1119°+0.8°60%

1219°+0.5°87%

1319°+0.3°97%

1419°+0.2°99%

1519°+0.2°99%

1618°+0.2°99%

1717°+0.2°99%

1817°+0.2°99%

1917°+0.3°100%

2016°+0.3°100%

2116°+0.3°100%

2216°+0.2°100%

2316°+0.2°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it

coldernormalwarmer

few+0.8°30d

scattered+0.5°117d

broken-0.1°95d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowN at 12kt1.1° below normal across 95 days (-1.6 to -0.7).

coldernormalwarmer

S+4.2°35d

SE+1.9°30d

E+1.1°57d

W-0.4°12d

NE-0.9°109d

N-1.1°95d

NW-2.3°32d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	17°C	9°C	19°C	16°C	18°C
01:00	16°C	9°C	19°C	15°C	18°C
02:00	16°C	15°C	19°C	15°C	18°C
03:00	16°C	14°C	20°C	16°C	18°C
04:00	16°C	14°C	19°C	16°C	18°C
05:00	17°C	14°C	19°C	16°C	17°C
06:00	17°C	13°C	19°C	15°C	17°C
07:00	17°C	13°C	20°C	16°C	17°C
08:00	17°C	12°C	22°C	17°C	18°C
09:00	19°C	12°C	23°C	18°C	19°C
10:00	20°C	12°C	24°C	18°C	20°C
11:00	20°C	12°C	25°C	19°C	21°C
12:00	20°C	11°C	25°C	19°C	22°C
13:00	20°C	11°C	26°C	19°C	23°C
14:00	20°C	12°C	26°C	19°C	23°C
15:00	20°C	12°C	26°C	19°C	22°C
16:00	20°C	12°C	23°C	18°C	21°C
17:00	19°C	11°C	22°C	18°C	20°C
18:00	18°C	11°C	21°C	18°C	19°C
19:00	18°C	10°C	20°C	18°C	19°C
20:00	17°C	10°C	20°C	17°C	19°C
21:00	17°C	10°C	19°C	17°C	18°C
22:00	17°C	9°C	20°C	16°C	18°C
23:00	17°C	9°C	19°C	16°C	18°C

observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-10 9°C —

11-09 17°C —

11-08 19°C —

11-07 20°C —

11-06 20°C —

11-05 19°C —

11-04 20°C —

11-03 21°C —

11-02 21°C —

11-01 26°C —

10-31 23°C —

10-30 24°C —

10-29 24°C —

10-28 21°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid lowmiss

08-11ECMWF15°15°+0.1°

07-11ECMWF16°16°-0.4°

06-11ECMWF14°15°-1.0°

05-11ECMWF14°16°-1.6°

04-11ECMWF17°17°+0.0°

03-11ECMWF14°13°+1.3°

02-11ECMWF14°15°-0.6°

01-11ECMWF17°17°-0.4°

31-10ECMWF11°13°-2.5°

30-10ECMWF14°15°-1.0°

29-10ECMWF15°15°+0.3°

28-10ECMWF14°15°-1.1°

27-10ECMWF15°16°-0.8°

26-10ECMWF16°16°+0.4°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.9°, within a degree on 70% of days.

what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by3.7°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

CMA GRAPES9.1°10.4°0.74°most accurate here

NOAA GFS9.4°11.4°0.90°

DWD ICON7.7°7.7°0.94°

ECMWF IFS9.2°11.0°1.02°

UK Met Office9.4°10.9°1.04°

Environment Canada GEM8.9°10.4°1.06°

JMA GSM11.4°14.4°3.19°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

CMA GRAPES0.74°-0.01°76%

NOAA GFS0.90°-0.33°63%

DWD ICON0.94°+0.19°61%

ECMWF IFS1.02°+0.91°61%

UK Met Office1.04°+0.75°63%

Environment Canada GEM1.06°+0.03°53%

JMA GSM3.19°+3.18°11%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z

forecast max18°at 11/06Zmin 11°issued by the national met service

base10/06Z→11/12Z330° 4mps; 8000m; scattered at 3,000ft

becoming11/02Z→11/03Z100° 4mps

TAF ZSPD 100310Z 1006/1112 33004MPS 8000 SCT030 TX15/1006Z TX18/1106Z TN11/1021Z BECMG 1102/1103 10004MPS

market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤5°C2%0%0/68

6°C5%0%0/68

7°C26%6%4/68

8°C3%3%2/68

9°C75%7%5/68

10°C0%6%4/68

11°C0%7%5/68

12°C0%3%2/68

13°C0%9%6/68

14°C0%12%8/68

≥15°C0%47%32/68

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 112% and climatology to 100%.