live obs
61°F
KSFO 0656Z
today high so far
68°F
at 13:56 · last 15:56
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
usually warmestsunset 17:03
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤59°F0%0¢
60-61°F0%0¢
62-63°F0%0¢
64-65°F0%0¢
66-67°F0%0¢
68-69°F>99%97¢
70-71°F0%3¢
72-73°F0%0¢
74-75°F0%0¢
76-77°F0%0¢
≥78°F0%0¢
Our estimate, from UK Met Office's forecast made early this morning (66.3° after taking
out its usual 0.7° warm lean here), narrowed by what KSFO has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KSFO, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
22:56
61°
59°
280/05
SCT200
—
21:56
62°
59°
300/09
BKN200
—
20:56
62°
59°
300/08
BKN200
—
19:56
64°
57°
280/11
BKN200
—
18:56
65°
58°
280/11
BKN200
—
17:56
65°
58°
290/13
BKN200
—
16:56
66°
59°
280/14
BKN200
—
15:56
68°
59°
280/12
BKN200
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 61°F at 22:56 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (58°F–61°F)
KSFO, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 68°F
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (59°F→59°F)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°F ahead of forecast trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 70°F, current 61°F @ 22:56
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KSFO, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-09
this hour median
59.0°F
usual 57.9°F–61.0°F
typical 14:00
66.9°F
usual 64.9°F–69.1°F
noon → peak climb
+3.4°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
71°F
14d high, 2026 11 07
avg high66.9°F
usual range64.9°F – 69.1°F
days ≥68°F5 / 14
days ≥69°F5 / 14
days ≥70°F2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 71% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 71% of 136 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+1.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00+0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-1.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-3.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-4.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-4.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-5.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00—
implied peak—
vs ecmwf 70°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KSFO
heating passport climb to peak
68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
61° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0056°+9.8°4%
0155°+10.9°4%
0255°+11.3°4%
0354°+12.0°4%
0454°+12.5°4%
0553°+12.7°4%
0654°+12.2°4%
0756°+10.4°4%
0858°+7.9°3%
0960°+6.4°3%
1061°+5.1°3%
1162°+3.8°9%
1264°+2.3°31%
1365°+1.2°58%
1465°+0.2°87%
1564°+0.1°97%
1662°+0.1°100%
1760°+0.4°100%
1860°+0.4°100%
1959°+0.4°100%
2058°+0.4°100%
2158°+0.4°100%
2257°+0.3°100%
2357°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowscattered1.3° below normal across 85 days (-2.2 to -0.3).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+7.3°45d
few-0.0°128d
scattered-1.3°85d
broken-1.5°113d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 5kt3.4° below normal across 66 days (-3.9 to -2.9).
coldernormalwarmer
N+4.8°39d
CALM+3.9°32d
NE+3.1°26d
VARIABLE+0.4°27d
S-0.0°12d
NW-0.6°143d
E-1.4°13d
W-3.4°66d
SW-3.7°18d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 58°F | 56°F | 60°F | 57°F | 60°F |
| 01:00 | 57°F | 55°F | 61°F | 56°F | 58°F |
| 02:00 | 55°F | 53°F | 61°F | 54°F | 58°F |
| 03:00 | 55°F | 52°F | 59°F | 53°F | 57°F |
| 04:00 | 54°F | 52°F | 59°F | 53°F | 58°F |
| 05:00 | 54°F | 52°F | 58°F | 52°F | 56°F |
| 06:00 | 54°F | 51°F | 58°F | 52°F | 57°F |
| 07:00 | 55°F | 51°F | 59°F | 52°F | 57°F |
| 08:00 | 56°F | 51°F | 59°F | 52°F | 57°F |
| 09:00 | 59°F | 55°F | 60°F | 57°F | 59°F |
| 10:00 | 60°F | 58°F | 62°F | 59°F | 61°F |
| 11:00 | 62°F | 59°F | 64°F | 60°F | 63°F |
| 12:00 | 63°F | 59°F | 66°F | 61°F | 63°F |
| 13:00 | 65°F | 61°F | 67°F | 64°F | 65°F |
| 14:00 | 65°F | 62°F | 71°F | 63°F | 67°F |
| 15:00 | 66°F | 62°F | 70°F | 64°F | 69°F |
| 16:00 | 66°F | 62°F | 69°F | 63°F | 68°F |
| 17:00 | 64°F | 61°F | 66°F | 63°F | 64°F |
| 18:00 | 62°F | 60°F | 64°F | 61°F | 63°F |
| 19:00 | 61°F | 58°F | 63°F | 60°F | 62°F |
| 20:00 | 61°F | 57°F | 62°F | 60°F | 62°F |
| 21:00 | 59°F | 57°F | 61°F | 59°F | 61°F |
| 22:00 | 59°F | 57°F | 61°F | 58°F | 61°F |
| 23:00 | 58°F | 55°F | 60°F | 58°F | 59°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
58°F
—
11-08
69°F
—
11-07
71°F
—
11-06
69°F
—
11-05
70°F
—
11-04
67°F
—
11-03
65°F
—
11-02
64°F
—
11-01
65°F
—
10-31
65°F
—
10-30
67°F
—
10-29
64°F
—
10-28
69°F
—
10-27
65°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11UK Met Office67°69°-2.1°
07-11UK Met Office69°71°-2.4°
06-11UK Met Office68°69°-0.7°
05-11UK Met Office67°70°-2.7°
04-11UK Met Office66°67°-1.1°
03-11UK Met Office60°65°-4.5°
02-11UK Met Office63°64°-0.9°
01-11UK Met Office63°65°-2.0°
31-10UK Met Office63°65°-1.6°
30-10UK Met Office62°67°-4.7°
29-10UK Met Office65°64°+1.1°
28-10UK Met Office68°69°-1.2°
27-10UK Met Office64°65°-1.3°
26-10UK Met Office65°68°-3.3°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 2.6°, within a degree on
19% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by6.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
UK Met Office65.3°68.4°2.04°most accurate here
DWD ICON67.5°71.1°2.21°
ECMWF IFS69.1°68.0°2.24°
Environment Canada GEM69.4°71.8°2.90°
NOAA GFS70.3°71.2°3.07°
CMA GRAPES69.6°71.2°3.26°
JMA GSM63.9°65.1°6.28°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
UK Met Office2.04°+1.25°33%
DWD ICON2.21°+1.06°44%
ECMWF IFS2.24°-0.50°10%
Environment Canada GEM2.90°-1.16°13%
NOAA GFS3.07°+2.24°33%
CMA GRAPES3.26°+1.92°26%
JMA GSM6.28°-6.16°3%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z300° 11kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 15,000ft
from10/07Z onwards270° 6kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from10/12Z onwardsvariable 4kt; 3 statute miles; mist; scattered at 600ft; broken at 2,500ft
from10/18Z onwards330° 8kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from10/21Z onwards280° 12kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from11/05Z onwards280° 7kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
TAF KSFO 100544Z 1006/1112 30011KT P6SM SCT150 FM100700 27006KT P6SM FEW250 FM101200 VRB04KT 3SM BR SCT006 BKN025 FM101800 33008KT P6SM FEW250 FM102100 28012KT P6SM SKC FM110500 28007KT P6SM SKC
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤59°F0%12%8/68
60-61°F0%4%3/68
62-63°F0%13%9/68
64-65°F0%10%7/68
66-67°F0%19%13/68
68-69°F97%21%14/68
70-71°F3%9%6/68
72-73°F0%6%4/68
74-75°F0%3%2/68
76-77°F0%1%1/68
≥78°F0%1%1/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.