live obs
11°C
RKSI 0700Z
today low so far
2°C
at 06:00 · last 07:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.3°
usually warmestsunset 17:28
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's low, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤-1°C<1%5¢
0°C<1%0¢
1°C4%0¢
2°C96%99¢
3°C0%0¢
4°C0%0¢
5°C0%0¢
6°C0%0¢
7°C0%0¢
8°C0%0¢
≥9°C0%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (4.0° after taking
out its usual 0.7° cold lean here), narrowed by what RKSI has reported so far and by how much
it usually still falls after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
RKSI, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
16:00
11°
3°
280/06
CAVOK
—
15:30
11°
3°
270/06
CAVOK
—
15:00
12°
3°
280/04
CAVOK
—
14:30
11°
3°
270/06
CAVOK
—
14:00
12°
2°
280/05
CAVOK
—
13:30
12°
2°
290/05
CAVOK
—
13:00
11°
1°
280/06
CAVOK
—
12:30
10°
1°
300/05
CAVOK
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 11°C at 16:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (10°C–16°C)
RKSI, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's minimum so far is 2°C
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (3°C→3°C)
stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current 11°C @ 16:00
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
RKSI, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
14.0°C
usual 10.0°C–16.0°C
typical 14:00
15.0°C
usual 11.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb
+1.0°C
how cold it gets last 14 days
19°C
14d low, 2026 10 30
avg high15.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥16°C5 / 14
days ≥17°C5 / 14
days ≥18°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 75% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 75% of 122 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-1.0°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 18:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:0010°C
implied peak11°C
vs ecmwf 5°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
RKSI
heating passport climb to peak
136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
11° now at 16:00peak already set on 99% of days by nowtypically only +0.3° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0010°+4.9°13%
019°+5.1°15%
029°+5.4°14%
039°+5.5°15%
049°+5.7°15%
059°+5.7°15%
069°+5.9°15%
078°+6.0°15%
089°+5.3°15%
0910°+4.1°18%
1011°+3.1°18%
1112°+2.0°22%
1213°+1.1°49%
1314°+0.6°70%
1414°+0.4°85%
1514°+0.3°97%
1613°+0.3°99%
1712°+0.3°98%
1812°+0.3°100%
1911°+0.3°100%
2011°+0.4°100%
2110°+0.4°100%
2210°+0.4°100%
239°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearonly 11 days on record against a floor of 20, so it is not shown — too few to characterise
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.3°26d
scattered+1.1°34d
broken+0.5°73d
overcast-0.9°35d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 6kt+0.6° across 24 days (-0.3 to +1.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.0°36d
SE+1.8°39d
SW+1.6°14d
W+0.6°24d
E+0.6°37d
VARIABLE+0.4°33d
NE+0.1°59d
N-0.3°51d
NW-1.8°90d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 10°C | 5°C | 17°C | 6°C | 12°C |
| 01:00 | 9°C | 4°C | 17°C | 6°C | 12°C |
| 02:00 | 9°C | 5°C | 16°C | 6°C | 12°C |
| 03:00 | 9°C | 5°C | 14°C | 6°C | 12°C |
| 04:00 | 10°C | 5°C | 14°C | 7°C | 12°C |
| 05:00 | 10°C | 5°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 06:00 | 9°C | 4°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 07:00 | 10°C | 4°C | 12°C | 6°C | 10°C |
| 08:00 | 9°C | 4°C | 13°C | 6°C | 10°C |
| 09:00 | 11°C | 5°C | 14°C | 7°C | 12°C |
| 10:00 | 12°C | 6°C | 15°C | 7°C | 13°C |
| 11:00 | 12°C | 6°C | 17°C | 9°C | 15°C |
| 12:00 | 13°C | 5°C | 18°C | 9°C | 15°C |
| 13:00 | 14°C | 6°C | 18°C | 10°C | 16°C |
| 14:00 | 14°C | 6°C | 19°C | 11°C | 16°C |
| 15:00 | 14°C | 7°C | 18°C | 10°C | 16°C |
| 16:00 | 14°C | 7°C | 18°C | 10°C | 16°C |
| 17:00 | 13°C | 7°C | 17°C | 10°C | 15°C |
| 18:00 | 12°C | 7°C | 17°C | 9°C | 13°C |
| 19:00 | 11°C | 7°C | 16°C | 8°C | 14°C |
| 20:00 | 11°C | 7°C | 16°C | 7°C | 13°C |
| 21:00 | 10°C | 7°C | 17°C | 7°C | 13°C |
| 22:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 17°C | 7°C | 12°C |
| 23:00 | 9°C | 5°C | 17°C | 6°C | 13°C |
observed lows last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10
5°C
—
11-09
11°C
—
11-08
7°C
—
11-07
9°C
—
11-06
13°C
—
11-05
17°C
—
11-04
18°C
—
11-03
17°C
—
11-02
15°C
—
11-01
11°C
—
10-31
17°C
—
10-30
19°C
—
10-29
13°C
—
10-28
12°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
lowmiss
08-11ICON5°5°-0.2°
07-11ICON3°3°+0.1°
06-11ICON6°6°-0.5°
05-11ICON12°12°-0.1°
04-11ICON9°10°-0.9°
03-11ICON5°6°-0.6°
02-11ICON9°7°+2.2°
01-11ICON8°8°+0.4°
31-10ICON10°8°+1.6°
30-10ECMWF12°8°+4.2°
29-10ECMWF7°6°+1.4°
28-10ECMWF4°5°-0.9°
27-10ECMWF8°9°-0.7°
26-10ECMWF14°16°-1.5°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.2°, within a degree on
60% of days.
what each model says daily minimum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by8.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON3.3°4.9°1.05°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS2.4°5.2°1.09°
Environment Canada GEM-0.5°3.4°2.44°
CMA GRAPES7.8°13.1°2.76°
NOAA GFS8.3°11.6°2.97°
UK Met Office7.0°11.3°2.98°
JMA GSM6.6°10.3°3.08°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON1.05°-0.84°58%
ECMWF IFS1.09°-0.47°55%
Environment Canada GEM2.44°-2.31°16%
CMA GRAPES2.76°+2.66°26%
NOAA GFS2.97°+2.94°16%
UK Met Office2.98°+2.98°11%
JMA GSM3.08°+3.08°8%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
forecast max14°at 11/05Zmin 6°issued by the national met service
base10/06Z→11/12Z240° 6kt; 10km+; few at 4,500ft
becoming10/11Z→10/13Z310° 7kt
becoming10/18Z→10/20Z010° 6kt; 4000m; mist
becoming10/21Z→10/23Z050° 6kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming11/00Z→11/02Z240° 6kt
TAF RKSI 100500Z 1006/1112 24006KT 9999 FEW045 TN06/1021Z TX14/1105Z BECMG 1011/1013 31007KT BECMG 1018/1020 01006KT 4000 BR BECMG 1021/1023 05006KT CAVOK BECMG 1100/1102 24006KT
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤-1°C5%1%1/68
0°C0%4%3/68
1°C0%6%4/68
2°C99%1%1/68
3°C0%7%5/68
4°C0%6%4/68
5°C0%6%4/68
6°C0%18%12/68
7°C0%10%7/68
8°C0%7%5/68
≥9°C0%32%22/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 105% and climatology to 100%.