peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
usually warmestsunset 16:41
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤45°F0%0¢
46-47°F0%0¢
48-49°F0%0¢
50-51°F0%0¢
52-53°F0%0¢
54-55°F97%96¢
56-57°F3%2¢
58-59°F0%1¢
60-61°F0%0¢
62-63°F0%0¢
≥64°F0%0¢
Our estimate, from ECMWF's forecast made early this morning (56.8° after taking
out its usual 1.0° cold lean here), narrowed by what KSEA has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KSEA, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
22:53
51°
49°
190/10
FEW010
—
22:02
52°
51°
200/10
BKN014
—
21:53
52°
51°
200/12
SCT010
—
21:35
53°
51°
200/09
OVC015
—
20:53
52°
51°
190/06
OVC025
—
20:05
51°
50°
250/07
OVC025
-RA
19:53
52°
49°
140/08
OVC045
-RA
19:14
52°
49°
120/12
OVC060
-RA
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 51°F at 22:53 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (46°F–51°F)
KSEA, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 55°F
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.5°F/h, dewpoint falling (51°F→49°F)
drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +3.1°F ahead of forecast trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 56°F, current 51°F @ 22:53
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KSEA, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-09
this hour median
48.0°F
usual 46.0°F–51.1°F
typical 13:00
55.9°F
usual 50.0°F–57.0°F
noon → peak climb
+2.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
62°F
14d high, 2026 11 07
avg high55.9°F
usual range50.0°F – 57.0°F
days ≥57°F4 / 14
days ≥58°F1 / 14
days ≥59°F1 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 64% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 64% of 126 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-0.6°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-1.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.5°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.0°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-3.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-3.7°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00—
implied peak—
vs ecmwf 56°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KSEA
heating passport climb to peak
68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
51° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0046°+6.6°3%
0146°+6.9°6%
0246°+7.2°6%
0345°+7.5°7%
0445°+7.6°9%
0545°+7.6°9%
0645°+7.7°9%
0745°+7.2°9%
0847°+6.1°7%
0948°+4.7°10%
1050°+3.1°15%
1151°+1.9°27%
1251°+1.3°42%
1352°+0.6°78%
1452°+0.4°90%
1551°+0.4°93%
1650°+0.4°96%
1749°+0.4°99%
1848°+0.3°100%
1948°+0.4°100%
2048°+0.2°100%
2147°+0.3°100%
2247°+0.1°100%
2346°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew3.3° above normal across 49 days (+2.0 to +4.7).
coldernormalwarmer
few+3.3°49d
scattered+1.2°48d
broken-1.0°174d
overcast-2.2°100d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowS at 10kt-0.7° across 70 days (-2.1 to +0.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
NW+3.7°40d
W+1.7°26d
N+1.0°81d
CALM-0.5°28d
S-0.7°70d
SE-1.4°14d
SW-1.4°86d
VARIABLE-1.8°17d
NE-1.9°13d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 47°F | 38°F | 53°F | 45°F | 51°F |
| 01:00 | 47°F | 38°F | 52°F | 44°F | 51°F |
| 02:00 | 47°F | 37°F | 53°F | 44°F | 51°F |
| 03:00 | 47°F | 38°F | 54°F | 45°F | 50°F |
| 04:00 | 46°F | 36°F | 53°F | 44°F | 50°F |
| 05:00 | 46°F | 36°F | 52°F | 44°F | 50°F |
| 06:00 | 47°F | 36°F | 52°F | 44°F | 49°F |
| 07:00 | 46°F | 37°F | 52°F | 43°F | 49°F |
| 08:00 | 47°F | 36°F | 52°F | 44°F | 49°F |
| 09:00 | 49°F | 40°F | 53°F | 45°F | 51°F |
| 10:00 | 51°F | 40°F | 55°F | 46°F | 52°F |
| 11:00 | 51°F | 43°F | 56°F | 46°F | 53°F |
| 12:00 | 51°F | 46°F | 57°F | 48°F | 55°F |
| 13:00 | 52°F | 46°F | 57°F | 48°F | 56°F |
| 14:00 | 54°F | 46°F | 58°F | 50°F | 56°F |
| 15:00 | 56°F | 47°F | 58°F | 52°F | 56°F |
| 16:00 | 55°F | 48°F | 56°F | 53°F | 55°F |
| 17:00 | 52°F | 46°F | 56°F | 50°F | 55°F |
| 18:00 | 51°F | 46°F | 62°F | 48°F | 53°F |
| 19:00 | 50°F | 44°F | 61°F | 46°F | 53°F |
| 20:00 | 49°F | 42°F | 62°F | 46°F | 53°F |
| 21:00 | 49°F | 44°F | 55°F | 46°F | 53°F |
| 22:00 | 48°F | 41°F | 55°F | 46°F | 51°F |
| 23:00 | 48°F | 40°F | 53°F | 45°F | 51°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
47°F
—
11-08
57°F
—
11-07
62°F
—
11-06
56°F
—
11-05
57°F
—
11-04
56°F
—
11-03
57°F
—
11-02
50°F
—
11-01
48°F
—
10-31
54°F
—
10-30
49°F
—
10-29
55°F
—
10-28
54°F
—
10-27
56°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ECMWF57°57°-0.0°
07-11ECMWF62°62°-0.2°
06-11ECMWF58°56°+2.1°
05-11ECMWF57°57°+0.0°
04-11ECMWF59°56°+2.7°
03-11ECMWF56°57°-1.1°
02-11ECMWF55°50°+4.6°
01-11ECMWF52°48°+3.9°
31-10ECMWF53°54°-0.7°
30-10ECMWF50°49°+0.6°
29-10ECMWF56°55°+0.7°
28-10ECMWF54°54°+0.1°
27-10ECMWF56°56°-0.3°
26-10ECMWF57°58°-0.8°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.6°, within a degree on
45% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.1°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
UK Met Office53.6°58.6°1.63°most accurate here
ECMWF IFS55.0°54.5°1.77°
DWD ICON54.1°57.6°1.98°
Environment Canada GEM53.2°56.7°1.99°
CMA GRAPES53.6°58.6°2.24°
NOAA GFS53.4°56.3°2.33°
JMA GSM52.0°59.9°2.71°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
UK Met Office1.63°-0.79°41%
ECMWF IFS1.77°-1.35°26%
DWD ICON1.98°-1.49°33%
Environment Canada GEM1.99°+0.28°38%
CMA GRAPES2.24°-1.09°31%
NOAA GFS2.33°-0.42°23%
JMA GSM2.71°-1.98°18%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z190° 6kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; broken at 1,200ft; broken at 3,000ft
from10/12Z onwards150° 5kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 5,000ft; overcast at 10,000ft
from10/15Z onwards200° 8kt; 6 statute miles; light showers rain; overcast at 3,500ft
from10/17Z onwards200° 10kt gusting 20; 5 statute miles; light showers rain; overcast at 1,500ft
from11/02Z onwards190° 8kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; overcast at 3,500ft
TAF KSEA 100538Z 1006/1112 19006KT P6SM VCSH BKN012 BKN030 FM101200 15005KT P6SM BKN050 OVC100 FM101500 20008KT 6SM -SHRA OVC035 FM101700 20010G20KT 5SM -SHRA OVC015 FM110200 19008KT P6SM VCSH OVC035
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤45°F0%9%6/68
46-47°F0%7%5/68
48-49°F0%7%5/68
50-51°F0%15%10/68
52-53°F0%15%10/68
54-55°F96%18%12/68
56-57°F2%15%10/68
58-59°F1%7%5/68
60-61°F0%3%2/68
62-63°F0%4%3/68
≥64°F0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.