São Paulo (SBGR) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤14°C<1%0¢

15°C<1%0¢

16°C<1%0¢

17°C1%0¢

18°C2%0¢

19°C9%1¢

20°C5%2¢

21°C7%6¢

22°C18%23¢

23°C19%38¢

≥24°C40%31¢

Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (23.2° after taking out its usual 0.1° cold lean here), narrowed by what SBGR has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR SBGR, 8 obs

METAR SBGR 100700Z 08005KT 9999 BKN023 13/11 Q1025

local temp dew wind cloud wx

04:00 13° 11° 080/05 BKN023 —

03:00 13° 11° 090/03 BKN023 —

02:00 13° 11° 100/04 BKN023 —

01:00 13° 11° 110/03 BKN017 —

00:00 13° 11° 120/05 CAVOK —

23:00 14° 11° 090/06 SCT045 —

22:00 15° 11° 100/06 BKN040 —

21:00 15° 11° 110/06 BKN033 —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▼

METAR 13°C at 04:00 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (18°C this hour) SBGR, running behind climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~13°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): -0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (11°C→11°C) drying — accelerates warming

!

Clock test: METAR (13°C @ 04:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥26°C possible 14d records show 7/14 days reached ≥26°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 22°C, current 13°C @ 04:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days SBGR, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 18.0°C usual 16.0°C–19.0°C

typical 14:00 25.0°C usual 21.0°C–29.0°C

noon → peak climb +0.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

33°C

14d high, 2026 11 04

avg high25.0°C

usual range21.0°C – 29.0°C

days ≥26°C7 / 14

days ≥27°C6 / 14

days ≥28°C6 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

12:00–14:00

where the high landed on 73% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 73% of 130 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 15:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 17:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 18:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 19:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 20:00-5.3°C mean, 5y, n=66

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 04:00)

implied peak~24°C (clim) vs ecmwf 22°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations SBGR

heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

13° now at 04:00typically +9.5° more (p90 +15.0°)expected peak 22°peak already set on 4% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0018°+8.5°4%

0118°+8.8°4%

0218°+9.1°4%

0317°+9.4°4%

0417°+9.5°4%

0517°+9.5°4%

0618°+9.3°5%

0719°+8.2°4%

0820°+6.8°6%

0922°+5.3°7%

1023°+3.7°10%

1124°+2.5°21%

1225°+1.4°36%

1326°+0.7°63%

1426°+0.2°88%

1526°+0.0°100%

1625°+0.0°100%

1724°+0.1°100%

1823°+0.0°100%

1921°+0.1°100%

2020°+0.1°100%

2119°+0.2°100%

2219°+0.2°100%

2319°+0.0°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken2.0° below normal across 106 days (-2.6 to -1.4).

coldernormalwarmer

scattered+1.7°57d

broken-2.0°106d

overcast-5.8°83d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowE at 5kt-0.6° across 88 days (-1.6 to +0.3) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

N+4.5°24d

NW+4.3°56d

VARIABLE+3.1°43d

W+2.6°20d

NE+2.0°29d

E-0.6°88d

S-4.0°31d

SE-4.4°85d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	20°C	13°C	21°C	17°C	21°C
01:00	19°C	12°C	22°C	17°C	20°C
02:00	18°C	11°C	22°C	17°C	20°C
03:00	18°C	13°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
04:00	18°C	13°C	21°C	16°C	19°C
05:00	18°C	13°C	20°C	16°C	19°C
06:00	18°C	14°C	20°C	16°C	20°C
07:00	18°C	14°C	22°C	17°C	21°C
08:00	19°C	14°C	24°C	16°C	22°C
09:00	21°C	15°C	28°C	17°C	25°C
10:00	23°C	16°C	31°C	17°C	26°C
11:00	24°C	16°C	32°C	19°C	26°C
12:00	24°C	17°C	30°C	20°C	28°C
13:00	24°C	16°C	32°C	21°C	28°C
14:00	23°C	16°C	32°C	21°C	26°C
15:00	23°C	16°C	33°C	21°C	27°C
16:00	22°C	16°C	32°C	20°C	25°C
17:00	22°C	16°C	31°C	18°C	25°C
18:00	21°C	15°C	30°C	17°C	23°C
19:00	19°C	15°C	28°C	17°C	21°C
20:00	20°C	15°C	26°C	17°C	21°C
21:00	20°C	14°C	22°C	17°C	21°C
22:00	20°C	14°C	22°C	17°C	21°C
23:00	20°C	13°C	22°C	17°C	21°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 17°C —

11-08 21°C —

11-07 32°C —

11-06 28°C —

11-05 26°C —

11-04 33°C —

11-03 31°C —

11-02 24°C —

11-01 29°C —

10-31 28°C —

10-30 25°C —

10-29 21°C —

10-28 21°C —

10-27 21°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11UK Met Office22°21°+1.3°

07-11ICON32°32°+0.4°

06-11ICON27°28°-1.2°

05-11ICON30°26°+4.0°

04-11ICON33°33°-0.0°

03-11ICON30°31°-0.6°

02-11ICON23°24°-1.0°

01-11UK Met Office26°29°-2.6°

31-10ICON27°28°-0.9°

30-10ICON23°25°-1.7°

29-10ICON19°21°-2.4°

28-10ICON24°21°+2.6°

27-10ICON22°21°+0.7°

26-10ICON18°18°-0.1°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.6°, within a degree on 29% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by2.7°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON23.1°26.9°1.33°most accurate here

UK Met Office22.5°23.5°1.36°

ECMWF IFS23.2°26.3°1.70°

NOAA GFS20.9°25.3°1.79°

CMA GRAPES20.7°24.6°2.04°

JMA GSM20.5°24.4°2.15°

Environment Canada GEM22.5°25.4°2.26°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON1.33°-0.19°54%

UK Met Office1.36°-0.24°49%

ECMWF IFS1.70°+0.20°28%

NOAA GFS1.79°-0.14°41%

CMA GRAPES2.04°-0.78°26%

JMA GSM2.15°-1.45°23%

Environment Canada GEM2.26°-0.36°23%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z

forecast max22°at 10/17Zmin 12°issued by the national met service

base10/06Z→11/12Z110° 5kt; 10km+; broken at 1,300ft

possibly30%10/08Z→10/11Z070° 7kt; 5000m; mist; broken at 800ft

becoming10/12Z→10/14Z120° 10kt; broken at 2,500ft

temporarily30%10/20Z→10/23Z140° 13kt; 8000m; broken at 1,300ft

becoming11/00Z→11/02Z080° 5kt; broken at 1,400ft

temporarily11/03Z→11/06Zscattered at 1,200ft

possibly30%11/09Z→11/11Z5000m; mist; broken at 1,000ft

TAF SBGR 100400Z 1006/1112 11005KT 9999 BKN013 TN12/1009Z TX22/1017Z PROB30 1008/1011 07007KT 5000 BR BKN008 BECMG 1012/1014 12010KT BKN025 PROB30 TEMPO 1020/1023 14013KT 8000 BKN013 BECMG 1100/1102 08005KT BKN014 TEMPO 1103/1106 SCT012 PROB30 1109/1111 5000 BR BKN010 RMK PGQ

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤14°C0%0%0/67

15°C0%0%0/67

16°C0%0%0/67

17°C0%3%2/67

18°C0%3%2/67

19°C1%1%1/67

20°C2%6%4/67

21°C6%3%2/67

22°C23%1%1/67

23°C38%7%5/67

≥24°C31%75%50/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.