Qingdao (ZSQD) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤10°C0%0¢

11°C0%0¢

12°C0%0¢

13°C0%0¢

14°C0%0¢

15°C95%97¢

16°C5%3¢

17°C0%0¢

18°C0%0¢

19°C0%0¢

≥20°C0%0¢

Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (13.4° after taking out its usual 0.4° cold lean here), narrowed by what ZSQD has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR ZSQD, 8 obs

METAR ZSQD 100700Z VRB02MPS CAVOK 15/M05 Q1027 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

15:00 15° -5° — CAVOK —

14:00 15° -6° 250/04 CAVOK —

13:00 15° -7° 230/04 CAVOK —

12:00 13° -8° 240/04 CAVOK —

11:00 12° -6° 240/04 CAVOK —

10:00 10° -3° — CAVOK —

09:00 7° -2° — CAVOK —

08:00 4° -1° — CAVOK —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

✓

METAR 15°C at 15:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (15°C–19°C) ZSQD, tracking climatology

✓

Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 15°C climb projections apply before the peak, not after it

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (-6°C→-5°C) drying — accelerates warming

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 14°C, current 15°C @ 15:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days ZSQD, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 18.0°C usual 15.0°C–19.0°C

typical 13:00 19.0°C usual 15.0°C–19.0°C

noon → peak climb +1.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

23°C

14d high, 2026 10 30

avg high19.0°C

usual range15.0°C – 19.0°C

days ≥20°C3 / 14

days ≥21°C1 / 14

days ≥22°C1 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

12:00–14:00

where the high landed on 72% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 72% of 132 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 15:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 17:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 18:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 19:00-4.0°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 20:00-4.6°C mean, 5y, n=67

today @ 12:0013°C

implied peak14°C vs ecmwf 14°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations ZSQD

heating passport climb to peak 68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

15° now at 15:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

009°+6.7°7%

019°+7.1°6%

029°+7.3°7%

038°+7.7°7%

048°+8.0°7%

058°+8.2°7%

068°+8.4°7%

078°+8.3°7%

0810°+6.5°7%

0912°+4.6°9%

1013°+2.7°15%

1114°+1.6°30%

1215°+0.8°52%

1316°+0.3°76%

1416°+0.1°88%

1515°+0.0°100%

1615°+0.0°100%

1713°+0.0°100%

1812°+0.2°100%

1911°+0.1°100%

2011°+0.1°100%

2110°+0.1°100%

2210°+0.1°100%

239°+0.0°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowclear2.8° above normal across 22 days (+1.7 to +3.9).

coldernormalwarmer

clear+2.8°22d

few+0.1°37d

scattered-0.2°68d

broken-0.9°38d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it

coldernormalwarmer

W+2.7°20d

S+2.3°61d

SW+2.1°10d

SE+1.9°31d

E+1.1°15d

NE-0.2°44d

VARIABLE-0.7°15d

N-1.5°77d

NW-1.8°83d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	12°C	3°C	15°C	9°C	13°C
01:00	10°C	3°C	15°C	9°C	12°C
02:00	10°C	4°C	16°C	8°C	12°C
03:00	10°C	4°C	13°C	8°C	12°C
04:00	9°C	4°C	13°C	7°C	12°C
05:00	9°C	4°C	13°C	7°C	12°C
06:00	9°C	3°C	12°C	7°C	12°C
07:00	10°C	5°C	13°C	7°C	12°C
08:00	11°C	5°C	13°C	10°C	12°C
09:00	13°C	6°C	17°C	12°C	14°C
10:00	14°C	8°C	20°C	13°C	16°C
11:00	15°C	9°C	20°C	14°C	17°C
12:00	17°C	9°C	21°C	15°C	18°C
13:00	18°C	9°C	22°C	15°C	19°C
14:00	19°C	9°C	23°C	15°C	19°C
15:00	18°C	9°C	23°C	15°C	19°C
16:00	17°C	9°C	22°C	15°C	19°C
17:00	15°C	8°C	19°C	14°C	17°C
18:00	14°C	7°C	16°C	12°C	15°C
19:00	13°C	6°C	16°C	11°C	14°C
20:00	12°C	6°C	15°C	11°C	13°C
21:00	12°C	5°C	17°C	11°C	13°C
22:00	11°C	4°C	15°C	11°C	13°C
23:00	12°C	4°C	15°C	10°C	13°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-10 3°C —

11-09 9°C —

11-08 15°C —

11-07 16°C —

11-06 13°C —

11-05 19°C —

11-04 20°C —

11-03 20°C —

11-02 19°C —

11-01 15°C —

10-31 19°C —

10-30 23°C —

10-29 18°C —

10-28 19°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ICON15°15°-0.4°

07-11ICON16°16°-0.4°

06-11ICON15°13°+1.6°

05-11ICON20°19°+1.2°

04-11ICON20°20°+0.1°

03-11ICON20°20°+0.1°

02-11ICON19°19°-0.2°

01-11ICON18°15°+2.9°

31-10ICON19°19°+0.2°

30-10ICON23°23°-0.2°

29-10ICON20°18°+2.1°

28-10ICON18°19°-1.0°

27-10ECMWF18°18°-0.2°

26-10ECMWF22°18°+3.7°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.9°, within a degree on 57% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by2.3°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON13.4°15.2°0.82°most accurate here

ECMWF IFS15.0°15.3°0.86°

Environment Canada GEM14.6°15.9°0.91°

JMA GSM14.7°17.3°1.01°

UK Met Office12.7°14.4°1.03°

NOAA GFS14.3°15.4°1.04°

CMA GRAPES12.8°14.2°1.99°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON0.82°-0.39°71%

ECMWF IFS0.86°+0.26°66%

Environment Canada GEM0.91°+0.22°61%

JMA GSM1.01°+0.32°58%

UK Met Office1.03°-0.62°58%

NOAA GFS1.04°-0.12°55%

CMA GRAPES1.99°-1.83°24%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z

forecast max17°at 11/06Zmin 1°issued by the national met service

base10/06Z→11/06Z230° 4mps; 6000m; no significant cloud

TAF ZSQD 100305Z 1006/1106 23004MPS 6000 NSC TX17/1106Z TN01/1021Z

market vs climatology today 68 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤10°C0%15%10/68

11°C0%3%2/68

12°C0%1%1/68

13°C0%6%4/68

14°C0%3%2/68

15°C97%7%5/68

16°C3%10%7/68

17°C0%7%5/68

18°C0%15%10/68

19°C0%16%11/68

≥20°C0%16%11/68

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.