Paris (LFPB) temperature today: live low, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's low, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤2°C<1%0¢

3°C<1%0¢

4°C1%0¢

5°C1%3¢

6°C8%0¢

7°C17%1¢

8°C73%97¢

9°C0%0¢

10°C0%0¢

11°C0%0¢

≥12°C0%0¢

Our estimate, from ECMWF's forecast made early this morning (7.3° after taking out its usual 0.2° warm lean here), narrowed by what LFPB has reported so far and by how much it usually still falls after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR LFPB, 8 obs

METAR LFPB 100700Z AUTO 04006KT 4300 BR BKN007 BKN021 OVC026 08/08 Q1009

local temp dew wind cloud wx

08:00 8° 8° 040/06 OVC026 BR

07:30 8° 8° 040/05 OVC007 BR

07:00 8° 7° 030/05 OVC007 BR

06:30 8° 7° 030/05 OVC008 BR

06:00 8° 7° 040/04 OVC007 —

05:30 8° 7° 030/04 OVC007 —

05:00 8° 7° 070/03 OVC008 -RA

04:30 8° 7° 050/05 OVC060 -RA

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▲

METAR 8°C at 08:00 local, +2.0°C vs 14d-median (6°C this hour) LFPB, running ahead of climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~10°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (8°C→8°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely

!

Clock test: METAR (8°C @ 08:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥14°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥14°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 8°C, current 8°C @ 08:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days LFPB, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 6.0°C usual 5.0°C–6.0°C

typical 15:00 13.0°C usual 10.0°C–16.0°C

noon → peak climb +2.0°C

how cold it gets last 14 days

16°C

14d low, 2026 10 30

avg high13.0°C

usual range10.0°C – 16.0°C

days ≥14°C5 / 14

days ≥15°C5 / 14

days ≥16°C4 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

13:00–14:00

where the high landed on 59% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 59% of 123 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 19:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 20:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=132

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:00)

implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 8°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations LFPB

heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

8° now at 08:00typically +4.3° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 12°peak already set on 9% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0010°+3.4°9%

019°+3.6°9%

029°+3.9°9%

039°+4.1°9%

049°+4.3°9%

059°+4.4°9%

069°+4.5°9%

079°+4.4°9%

089°+4.3°9%

099°+3.7°9%

1010°+2.9°10%

1111°+2.2°16%

1212°+1.4°30%

1312°+0.8°54%

1412°+0.5°84%

1513°+0.2°97%

1612°+0.2°99%

1712°+0.3°99%

1811°+0.3°98%

1911°+0.3°100%

2010°+0.2°100%

2110°+0.3°100%

2210°+0.1°100%

2310°+0.1°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowovercast1.5° below normal across 115 days (-2.0 to -1.0).

coldernormalwarmer

scattered+0.3°20d

broken-0.5°108d

overcast-1.5°115d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowNE at 6kt-0.3° across 28 days (-1.5 to +0.9) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

SE+2.1°49d

S+1.4°80d

NE-0.3°28d

E-0.4°31d

SW-0.5°87d

NW-1.1°19d

W-1.1°37d

N-2.9°27d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	8°C	5°C	15°C	6°C	9°C
01:00	8°C	4°C	15°C	6°C	8°C
02:00	7°C	3°C	15°C	6°C	8°C
03:00	7°C	3°C	15°C	5°C	8°C
04:00	6°C	2°C	15°C	5°C	7°C
05:00	6°C	2°C	15°C	5°C	7°C
06:00	6°C	1°C	15°C	5°C	7°C
07:00	6°C	2°C	14°C	5°C	6°C
08:00	6°C	3°C	13°C	5°C	6°C
09:00	7°C	3°C	14°C	5°C	8°C
10:00	9°C	3°C	14°C	6°C	9°C
11:00	10°C	4°C	15°C	7°C	11°C
12:00	12°C	5°C	15°C	8°C	13°C
13:00	11°C	5°C	15°C	9°C	14°C
14:00	11°C	6°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
15:00	13°C	6°C	16°C	9°C	16°C
16:00	13°C	6°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
17:00	11°C	6°C	14°C	9°C	14°C
18:00	10°C	6°C	13°C	8°C	13°C
19:00	9°C	6°C	13°C	8°C	11°C
20:00	10°C	6°C	13°C	8°C	10°C
21:00	9°C	6°C	13°C	7°C	10°C
22:00	9°C	6°C	14°C	7°C	10°C
23:00	8°C	5°C	14°C	7°C	9°C

observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 9°C —

11-08 7°C —

11-07 10°C —

11-06 13°C —

11-05 11°C —

11-04 9°C —

11-03 10°C —

11-02 12°C —

11-01 13°C —

10-31 15°C —

10-30 16°C —

10-29 16°C —

10-28 16°C —

10-27 16°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid lowmiss

08-11ECMWF3°4°-1.3°

07-11ECMWF4°1°+2.5°

06-11ECMWF4°5°-1.4°

05-11ECMWF2°4°-1.9°

04-11ECMWF3°6°-2.8°

03-11ECMWF5°6°-0.5°

02-11ECMWF6°8°-2.2°

01-11ECMWF4°5°-0.9°

31-10ECMWF5°5°-0.1°

30-10ECMWF5°5°-0.1°

29-10ECMWF5°4°+1.3°

28-10ECMWF6°6°-0.1°

27-10ECMWF10°10°+0.1°

26-10ECMWF7°7°-0.1°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.0°, within a degree on 63% of days.

what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by2.1°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

ECMWF IFS7.3°10.1°0.88°most accurate here

DWD ICON7.6°10.2°0.98°

CMA GRAPES8.9°11.4°1.37°

JMA GSM8.7°12.9°1.44°

Environment Canada GEM7.3°8.2°1.67°

NOAA GFS9.4°10.0°1.94°

UK Met Office8.1°11.9°2.48°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

ECMWF IFS0.88°+0.27°66%

DWD ICON0.98°+0.47°68%

CMA GRAPES1.37°+0.90°42%

JMA GSM1.44°+1.16°32%

Environment Canada GEM1.67°-1.59°29%

NOAA GFS1.94°+1.59°32%

UK Met Office2.48°+2.45°26%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z

base10/06Z→11/06Z040° 8kt; 6000m; overcast at 700ft

temporarily10/06Z→10/20Zbroken at 500ft

temporarily40%10/06Z→10/20Z4000m; light drizzle rain; broken at 400ft

temporarily10/20Z→10/22Zbroken at 4,000ft

becoming10/22Z→10/24Z4000m; mist; broken at 500ft

temporarily40%11/04Z→11/05Z2500m; mist

TAF LFPB 100500Z 1006/1106 04008KT 6000 OVC007 TEMPO 1006/1020 BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 1006/1020 4000 -DZRA BKN004 TEMPO 1020/1022 BKN040 BECMG 1022/1024 4000 BR BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 1104/1105 2500 BR

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤2°C0%1%1/67

3°C0%1%1/67

4°C0%7%5/67

5°C3%10%7/67

6°C0%15%10/67

7°C1%18%12/67

8°C97%15%10/67

9°C0%12%8/67

10°C0%9%6/67

11°C0%6%4/67

≥12°C0%4%3/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.