live obs
8°C
LFPB 0700Z
today high so far
8°C
at 00:00 · last 08:00
forecast peak13°DWD ICON
typical further climb+4.3°
usually warmestsunset 17:17
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤8°C<1%0¢
9°C2%0¢
10°C6%2¢
11°C19%8¢
12°C27%38¢
13°C12%46¢
14°C16%12¢
15°C11%1¢
16°C5%0¢
17°C2%0¢
≥18°C<1%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (13.8° after taking
out its usual 0.3° cold lean here), narrowed by what LFPB has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
LFPB, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
08:00
8°
8°
040/06
OVC026
BR
07:30
8°
8°
040/05
OVC007
BR
07:00
8°
7°
030/05
OVC007
BR
06:30
8°
7°
030/05
OVC008
BR
06:00
8°
7°
040/04
OVC007
—
05:30
8°
7°
030/04
OVC007
—
05:00
8°
7°
070/03
OVC008
-RA
04:30
8°
7°
050/05
OVC060
-RA
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▲
METAR 8°C at 08:00 local, +2.0°C vs 14d-median (6°C this hour)
LFPB, running ahead of climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~10°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (8°C→8°C)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (8°C @ 08:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥14°C possible
14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥14°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 13°C, current 8°C @ 08:00
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
LFPB, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
6.0°C
usual 5.0°C–6.0°C
typical 15:00
13.0°C
usual 10.0°C–16.0°C
noon → peak climb
+2.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high13.0°C
usual range10.0°C – 16.0°C
days ≥14°C5 / 14
days ≥15°C5 / 14
days ≥16°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 59% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 59% of 123 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-0.4°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 19:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 20:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:00)
implied peak~14°C (clim)
vs ecmwf 13°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
LFPB
heating passport climb to peak
134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
8° now at 08:00typically +4.3° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 12°peak already set on 9% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0010°+3.4°9%
019°+3.6°9%
029°+3.9°9%
039°+4.1°9%
049°+4.3°9%
059°+4.4°9%
069°+4.5°9%
079°+4.4°9%
089°+4.3°9%
099°+3.7°9%
1010°+2.9°10%
1111°+2.2°16%
1212°+1.4°30%
1312°+0.8°54%
1412°+0.5°84%
1513°+0.2°97%
1612°+0.2°99%
1712°+0.3°99%
1811°+0.3°98%
1911°+0.3°100%
2010°+0.2°100%
2110°+0.3°100%
2210°+0.1°100%
2310°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast1.5° below normal across 115 days (-2.0 to -1.0).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.3°20d
broken-0.5°108d
overcast-1.5°115d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 6kt-0.3° across 28 days (-1.5 to +0.9) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SE+2.1°49d
S+1.4°80d
NE-0.3°28d
E-0.4°31d
SW-0.5°87d
NW-1.1°19d
W-1.1°37d
N-2.9°27d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 8°C | 5°C | 15°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 01:00 | 8°C | 4°C | 15°C | 6°C | 8°C |
| 02:00 | 7°C | 3°C | 15°C | 6°C | 8°C |
| 03:00 | 7°C | 3°C | 15°C | 5°C | 8°C |
| 04:00 | 6°C | 2°C | 15°C | 5°C | 7°C |
| 05:00 | 6°C | 2°C | 15°C | 5°C | 7°C |
| 06:00 | 6°C | 1°C | 15°C | 5°C | 7°C |
| 07:00 | 6°C | 2°C | 14°C | 5°C | 6°C |
| 08:00 | 6°C | 3°C | 13°C | 5°C | 6°C |
| 09:00 | 7°C | 3°C | 14°C | 5°C | 8°C |
| 10:00 | 9°C | 3°C | 15°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 11:00 | 10°C | 4°C | 15°C | 7°C | 11°C |
| 12:00 | 12°C | 5°C | 15°C | 8°C | 12°C |
| 13:00 | 11°C | 5°C | 15°C | 9°C | 14°C |
| 14:00 | 11°C | 6°C | 16°C | 9°C | 15°C |
| 15:00 | 13°C | 6°C | 16°C | 9°C | 15°C |
| 16:00 | 13°C | 6°C | 15°C | 9°C | 15°C |
| 17:00 | 11°C | 6°C | 14°C | 9°C | 13°C |
| 18:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 13°C | 8°C | 13°C |
| 19:00 | 9°C | 6°C | 13°C | 8°C | 11°C |
| 20:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 13°C | 8°C | 10°C |
| 21:00 | 9°C | 6°C | 13°C | 7°C | 10°C |
| 22:00 | 9°C | 7°C | 14°C | 7°C | 10°C |
| 23:00 | 8°C | 5°C | 14°C | 7°C | 9°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
9°C
—
11-08
7°C
—
11-07
10°C
—
11-06
13°C
—
11-05
11°C
—
11-04
9°C
—
11-03
10°C
—
11-02
12°C
—
11-01
13°C
—
10-31
15°C
—
10-30
16°C
—
10-29
16°C
—
10-28
16°C
—
10-27
16°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11UK Met Office11°7°+4.0°
07-11UK Met Office12°10°+2.1°
06-11UK Met Office13°13°-0.2°
05-11UK Met Office11°11°+0.3°
04-11UK Met Office11°9°+1.9°
03-11UK Met Office11°10°+1.5°
02-11UK Met Office11°12°-0.7°
01-11UK Met Office13°13°+0.3°
31-10UK Met Office15°15°-0.0°
30-10UK Met Office15°16°-0.8°
29-10UK Met Office16°16°-0.4°
28-10UK Met Office16°16°+0.0°
27-10UK Met Office18°16°+1.6°
26-10UK Met Office15°14°+1.3°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.0°, within a degree on
70% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON13.1°16.3°0.93°most accurate here
UK Met Office12.3°15.1°0.98°
NOAA GFS12.6°15.8°0.99°
Environment Canada GEM13.9°14.6°1.02°
ECMWF IFS12.3°14.4°1.21°
JMA GSM12.9°15.0°1.74°
CMA GRAPES13.0°15.1°1.88°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON0.93°-0.40°61%
UK Met Office0.98°-0.43°63%
NOAA GFS0.99°+0.18°71%
Environment Canada GEM1.02°-0.05°63%
ECMWF IFS1.21°-0.60°45%
JMA GSM1.74°-1.32°32%
CMA GRAPES1.88°-1.39°34%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z
base10/06Z→11/06Z040° 8kt; 6000m; overcast at 700ft
temporarily10/06Z→10/20Zbroken at 500ft
temporarily40%10/06Z→10/20Z4000m; light drizzle rain; broken at 400ft
temporarily10/20Z→10/22Zbroken at 4,000ft
becoming10/22Z→10/24Z4000m; mist; broken at 500ft
temporarily40%11/04Z→11/05Z2500m; mist
TAF LFPB 100500Z 1006/1106 04008KT 6000 OVC007 TEMPO 1006/1020 BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 1006/1020 4000 -DZRA BKN004 TEMPO 1020/1022 BKN040 BECMG 1022/1024 4000 BR BKN005 PROB40 TEMPO 1104/1105 2500 BR
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤8°C0%1%1/67
9°C0%6%4/67
10°C2%10%7/67
11°C8%6%4/67
12°C38%16%11/67
13°C46%22%15/67
14°C12%12%8/67
15°C1%9%6/67
16°C0%7%5/67
17°C0%6%4/67
≥18°C0%3%2/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 107% and climatology to 100%.