live obs
52°F
KLGA 0651Z
today high so far
52°F
at 00:51 · last 01:51
forecast peak63°DWD ICON
climatology alone suggests61°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+8.6°
usually warmestsunset 16:42
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤51°F0%0¢
52-53°F<1%0¢
54-55°F<1%0¢
56-57°F1%0¢
58-59°F6%1¢
60-61°F25%12¢
62-63°F39%74¢
64-65°F22%12¢
66-67°F6%0¢
68-69°F1%0¢
≥70°F<1%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (63.2° after taking
out its usual lean here, which is next to none), narrowed by what KLGA has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KLGA, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
01:51
52°
35°
310/09
BKN200
—
00:51
52°
35°
300/10
BKN045
—
23:51
52°
35°
310/12
FEW046
—
22:51
52°
36°
310/11
FEW045
—
21:51
53°
35°
300/16
SCT046
—
20:51
54°
37°
310/11
SCT046
—
19:51
54°
38°
300/15
SCT060
—
18:51
55°
37°
300/17
FEW060
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▼
METAR 52°F at 01:51 local, -5.0°F vs 14d-median (57°F this hour)
KLGA, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +3.6°F (n=13) — projects to ~56°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°F/h, dewpoint falling (35°F→35°F)
drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (52°F @ 01:51) with climatology suggests peak ≥68°F possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥68°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°F behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 60°F, current 52°F @ 01:51
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KLGA, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
57.0°F
usual 53.1°F–62.1°F
typical 14:00
66.9°F
usual 61.0°F–70.0°F
noon → peak climb
+3.6°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
72°F
14d high, 2026 11 04
avg high66.9°F
usual range61.0°F – 70.0°F
days ≥68°F6 / 14
days ≥69°F4 / 14
days ≥70°F4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 58% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 58% of 116 days, most often around 14:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.8°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+1.0°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-0.7°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-1.5°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-2.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-3.1°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-3.4°F mean, 5y, n=65
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 01:51)
implied peak~68°F (clim)
vs ecmwf 60°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KLGA
heating passport climb to peak
67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
52° now at 02:00typically +8.6° more (p90 +15.0°)expected peak 61°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0052°+7.8°12%
0151°+8.3°12%
0251°+8.6°12%
0351°+9.0°12%
0450°+9.3°12%
0550°+9.4°12%
0650°+9.3°15%
0751°+8.5°15%
0853°+6.9°15%
0954°+5.4°18%
1056°+3.9°22%
1157°+2.8°23%
1258°+1.7°36%
1358°+0.7°56%
1459°+0.3°82%
1558°+0.1°94%
1657°+0.2°94%
1756°+0.2°97%
1855°+0.3°97%
1954°+0.3°98%
2054°+0.2°98%
2153°+0.1°98%
2253°+0.1°98%
2352°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken+0.1° across 142 days (-0.9 to +1.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
few+1.3°77d
scattered+0.1°93d
broken+0.1°142d
overcast-3.0°67d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 9kt-0.1° across 79 days (-1.5 to +1.2) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+3.9°35d
SW+3.0°44d
VARIABLE+1.9°15d
SE+1.3°11d
E+1.1°15d
W+0.6°45d
NW-0.1°79d
N-1.1°39d
NE-3.3°96d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 58°F | 51°F | 67°F | 54°F | 62°F |
| 01:00 | 57°F | 51°F | 68°F | 53°F | 62°F |
| 02:00 | 57°F | 50°F | 66°F | 53°F | 61°F |
| 03:00 | 56°F | 49°F | 66°F | 53°F | 60°F |
| 04:00 | 55°F | 48°F | 67°F | 53°F | 59°F |
| 05:00 | 55°F | 47°F | 68°F | 52°F | 60°F |
| 06:00 | 55°F | 47°F | 68°F | 52°F | 59°F |
| 07:00 | 54°F | 48°F | 68°F | 52°F | 58°F |
| 08:00 | 56°F | 48°F | 67°F | 54°F | 60°F |
| 09:00 | 59°F | 50°F | 69°F | 55°F | 64°F |
| 10:00 | 61°F | 51°F | 70°F | 55°F | 62°F |
| 11:00 | 63°F | 53°F | 70°F | 57°F | 67°F |
| 12:00 | 64°F | 55°F | 72°F | 58°F | 67°F |
| 13:00 | 66°F | 56°F | 72°F | 59°F | 67°F |
| 14:00 | 67°F | 57°F | 70°F | 60°F | 69°F |
| 15:00 | 66°F | 58°F | 71°F | 60°F | 69°F |
| 16:00 | 65°F | 57°F | 71°F | 60°F | 68°F |
| 17:00 | 63°F | 56°F | 71°F | 60°F | 66°F |
| 18:00 | 61°F | 55°F | 70°F | 59°F | 64°F |
| 19:00 | 61°F | 54°F | 70°F | 58°F | 64°F |
| 20:00 | 61°F | 53°F | 68°F | 57°F | 64°F |
| 21:00 | 60°F | 53°F | 68°F | 56°F | 64°F |
| 22:00 | 59°F | 51°F | 67°F | 56°F | 64°F |
| 23:00 | 58°F | 51°F | 68°F | 55°F | 62°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
57°F
—
11-08
61°F
—
11-07
62°F
—
11-06
68°F
—
11-05
70°F
—
11-04
72°F
—
11-03
70°F
—
11-02
67°F
—
11-01
60°F
—
10-31
60°F
—
10-30
70°F
—
10-29
68°F
—
10-28
62°F
—
10-27
63°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON60°61°-0.6°
07-11ICON61°62°-1.2°
06-11ICON68°68°-0.2°
05-11ICON70°70°-0.5°
04-11ICON70°72°-1.8°
03-11ICON68°70°-2.2°
02-11ICON65°67°-2.3°
01-11ICON59°60°-0.7°
31-10ICON59°60°-1.4°
30-10ICON71°70°+1.0°
29-10ICON67°68°-1.0°
28-10ICON62°62°-0.1°
27-10ICON61°63°-1.8°
26-10ICON71°71°-0.5°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.2°, within a degree on
52% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON63.1°59.5°0.85°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM62.2°59.7°1.16°
NOAA GFS61.2°57.4°1.45°
JMA GSM58.3°55.6°1.57°
ECMWF IFS59.2°59.2°1.80°
UK Met Office57.9°58.6°2.13°
CMA GRAPES55.9°52.7°3.77°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON0.85°-0.05°62%
Environment Canada GEM1.16°-0.31°51%
NOAA GFS1.45°-0.40°44%
JMA GSM1.57°-0.72°44%
ECMWF IFS1.80°-1.29°23%
UK Met Office2.13°-1.62°28%
CMA GRAPES3.77°-3.67°8%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z300° 12kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 6,000ft
from10/09Z onwards280° 9kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 6,000ft; broken at 20,000ft
from10/15Z onwards260° 12kt gusting 20; >6 statute miles; scattered at 20,000ft
from10/18Z onwards250° 15kt gusting 24; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/23Z onwards290° 10kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
TAF KLGA 100539Z 1006/1112 30012KT P6SM BKN060 FM100900 28009KT P6SM SCT060 BKN200 FM101500 26012G20KT P6SM SCT200 FM101800 25015G24KT P6SM SKC FM102300 29010KT P6SM SKC
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤51°F0%21%14/67
52-53°F0%4%3/67
54-55°F0%9%6/67
56-57°F0%6%4/67
58-59°F1%10%7/67
60-61°F12%10%7/67
62-63°F74%3%2/67
64-65°F12%6%4/67
66-67°F0%7%5/67
68-69°F0%6%4/67
≥70°F0%16%11/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.