live obs
6°C
EDDM 0720Z
today high so far
6°C
at 07:50 · last 08:20
forecast peak9°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests11°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+4.8°
usually warmestsunset 16:41
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤4°C0%0¢
5°C0%0¢
6°C7%1¢
7°C21%15¢
8°C16%61¢
9°C19%28¢
10°C18%2¢
11°C7%0¢
12°C8%0¢
13°C2%0¢
≥14°C1%0¢
Our estimate, from UK Met Office's forecast made early this morning (9.3° after taking
out its usual 0.4° cold lean here), narrowed by what EDDM has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
EDDM, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
08:20
6°
5°
—
OVC012
-RA BR BR
07:50
6°
5°
350/02
OVC020
-RA BR BR
07:20
5°
5°
—
OVC016
RA BR
06:50
5°
5°
—
OVC016
RA BR BR
06:20
5°
5°
—
OVC016
RA BR BR
05:50
5°
5°
050/02
OVC014
-RA BR BR
05:20
5°
5°
—
OVC014
-RA BR BR
04:50
5°
4°
080/03
BKN018
BR BR
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▲
METAR 6°C at 08:20 local, +2.0°C vs 14d-median (4°C this hour)
EDDM, running ahead of climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~6°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (5°C→5°C)
stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (6°C @ 08:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥9°C possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥9°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 9°C, current 6°C @ 08:20
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
EDDM, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
4.0°C
usual 3.0°C–5.0°C
typical 14:00
8.0°C
usual 7.0°C–10.0°C
noon → peak climb
+0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d high, 2026 10 27
avg high8.0°C
usual range7.0°C – 10.0°C
days ≥9°C6 / 14
days ≥10°C5 / 14
days ≥11°C3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 68% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 68% of 120 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-1.7°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 18:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 19:00-2.8°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 20:00-3.2°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:20)
implied peak~8°C (clim)
vs ecmwf 9°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
EDDM
heating passport climb to peak
134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
6° now at 08:00typically +4.8° more (p90 +11.0°)expected peak 11°peak already set on 12% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
004°+5.5°9%
014°+5.4°10%
024°+5.6°10%
034°+5.7°10%
044°+5.7°10%
054°+5.6°10%
064°+5.6°12%
074°+5.5°12%
084°+4.8°12%
096°+3.8°12%
106°+2.8°18%
117°+1.8°31%
128°+1.2°48%
139°+0.6°70%
149°+0.3°93%
159°+0.3°97%
167°+0.4°97%
176°+0.4°97%
186°+0.5°97%
195°+0.4°98%
205°+0.4°98%
215°+0.4°100%
224°+0.3°100%
234°+0.2°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast3.2° below normal across 49 days (-3.9 to -2.5).
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.2°25d
scattered-1.6°61d
broken-2.0°78d
overcast-3.2°49d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+1.6°18d
SW+1.2°37d
SE+0.6°13d
W-0.2°130d
E-0.2°80d
NE-0.3°25d
NW-1.7°20d
N-2.9°11d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 4°C | -1°C | 6°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 01:00 | 4°C | -1°C | 6°C | 3°C | 5°C |
| 02:00 | 3°C | -2°C | 6°C | 2°C | 4°C |
| 03:00 | 3°C | -2°C | 6°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 04:00 | 3°C | 0°C | 7°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 05:00 | 4°C | 0°C | 7°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 06:00 | 4°C | -1°C | 7°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 07:00 | 4°C | 0°C | 7°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 08:00 | 4°C | 0°C | 8°C | 3°C | 5°C |
| 09:00 | 5°C | 2°C | 9°C | 3°C | 5°C |
| 10:00 | 5°C | 2°C | 11°C | 5°C | 6°C |
| 11:00 | 6°C | 2°C | 13°C | 5°C | 8°C |
| 12:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 15°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 13:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 16°C | 7°C | 10°C |
| 14:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 16°C | 7°C | 10°C |
| 15:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 16°C | 6°C | 10°C |
| 16:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 16°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 17:00 | 7°C | 3°C | 14°C | 6°C | 8°C |
| 18:00 | 6°C | 3°C | 12°C | 5°C | 7°C |
| 19:00 | 6°C | 3°C | 10°C | 4°C | 7°C |
| 20:00 | 5°C | 2°C | 10°C | 4°C | 6°C |
| 21:00 | 5°C | 1°C | 9°C | 3°C | 7°C |
| 22:00 | 5°C | 1°C | 7°C | 3°C | 6°C |
| 23:00 | 5°C | -1°C | 6°C | 3°C | 5°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
5°C
—
11-08
8°C
—
11-07
7°C
—
11-06
4°C
—
11-05
10°C
—
11-04
7°C
—
11-03
6°C
—
11-02
7°C
—
11-01
8°C
—
10-31
9°C
—
10-30
11°C
—
10-29
10°C
—
10-28
12°C
—
10-27
16°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11UK Met Office7°8°-0.8°
07-11UK Met Office8°7°+1.4°
06-11UK Met Office6°4°+2.4°
05-11UK Met Office9°10°-0.9°
04-11UK Met Office8°7°+0.6°
03-11UK Met Office7°6°+1.0°
02-11UK Met Office8°7°+0.7°
01-11UK Met Office9°8°+0.9°
31-10UK Met Office10°9°+0.6°
30-10UK Met Office12°11°+0.5°
29-10UK Met Office11°10°+0.6°
28-10UK Met Office12°12°-0.1°
27-10UK Met Office16°16°+0.1°
26-10UK Met Office12°12°-0.4°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.1°, within a degree on
67% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
UK Met Office8.6°11.5°1.03°most accurate here
DWD ICON8.1°12.7°1.07°
ECMWF IFS8.5°14.6°1.14°
NOAA GFS8.6°13.8°1.17°
Environment Canada GEM9.4°12.0°1.41°
CMA GRAPES8.5°13.0°1.69°
JMA GSM9.9°11.6°1.79°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
UK Met Office1.03°-0.59°53%
DWD ICON1.07°-0.11°61%
ECMWF IFS1.14°-0.31°63%
NOAA GFS1.17°+0.27°71%
Environment Canada GEM1.41°-0.38°39%
CMA GRAPES1.69°-1.02°34%
JMA GSM1.79°-0.98°37%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z090° 4kt; 6000m; scattered at 200ft; overcast at 1,500ft
temporarily10/06Z→10/09Z4000m; light rain drizzle; broken at 1,200ft
temporarily40%10/06Z→10/09Z1500m; rain drizzle; mist; broken at 200ft
temporarily10/09Z→10/12Z2500m; light rain drizzle; mist; overcast at 300ft
temporarily40%10/12Z→10/18Z4000m; mist; broken at 600ft
becoming10/18Z→10/20Zbroken at 1,000ft
becoming11/00Z→11/03Z2000m; mist; overcast at 300ft
temporarily40%11/03Z→11/09Z700m; fog; overcast at 100ft
becoming11/09Z→11/12Z6000m; few at 200ft
TAF EDDM 100500Z 1006/1112 09004KT 6000 SCT002 OVC015 TEMPO 1006/1009 4000 -RADZ BKN012 PROB40 TEMPO 1006/1009 1500 RADZ BR BKN002 TEMPO 1009/1012 2500 -RADZ BR OVC003 PROB40 TEMPO 1012/1018 4000 BR BKN006 BECMG 1018/1020 BKN010 BECMG 1100/1103 2000 BR OVC003 PROB40 TEMPO 1103/1109 0700 FG OVC001 BECMG 1109/1112 6000 FEW002
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤4°C0%9%6/67
5°C0%6%4/67
6°C1%9%6/67
7°C15%6%4/67
8°C61%9%6/67
9°C28%12%8/67
10°C2%9%6/67
11°C0%10%7/67
12°C0%7%5/67
13°C0%12%8/67
≥14°C0%10%7/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 108% and climatology to 100%.