live obs
8°C
LIMC 0720Z
today high so far
8°C
at 00:20 · last 08:20
forecast peak13°UK Met Office
typical further climb+7.1°
usually warmestsunset 17:01
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤7°C0%0¢
8°C<1%0¢
9°C2%0¢
10°C9%0¢
11°C13%5¢
12°C34%18¢
13°C13%46¢
14°C18%33¢
15°C9%1¢
16°C2%0¢
≥17°C1%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (12.4° after taking
out its usual 0.3° cold lean here), narrowed by what LIMC has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
LIMC, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
08:20
8°
7°
—
BKN050
BR
07:50
8°
7°
290/03
BKN050
BR
07:20
8°
7°
280/03
BKN050
BR
06:50
8°
7°
300/03
BKN052
BR
06:20
8°
7°
310/03
BKN053
BR
05:50
8°
7°
290/05
BKN051
BR
05:20
8°
7°
260/04
BKN003
BR
04:50
8°
7°
—
BKN003
BR
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 8°C at 08:20 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (7°C–9°C)
LIMC, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~9°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (7°C→7°C)
stable dewpoint — no humidity drift
!
Clock test: METAR (8°C @ 08:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥15°C possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥15°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C)
ECMWF ens-mean 14°C
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
LIMC, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
8.0°C
usual 7.0°C–9.0°C
typical 14:00
14.0°C
usual 11.0°C–17.0°C
noon → peak climb
+1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
18°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high14.0°C
usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C
days ≥15°C6 / 14
days ≥16°C6 / 14
days ≥17°C5 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 77% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 77% of 133 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 15:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 16:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.3°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 18:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=131
12:00 → 19:00-4.9°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 20:00-5.7°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:20)
implied peak~15°C (clim)
vs ecmwf 14°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
LIMC
heating passport climb to peak
133 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
8° now at 08:00typically +7.1° more (p90 +12.0°)expected peak 15°peak already set on 3% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
006°+7.9°3%
016°+8.0°3%
026°+8.2°3%
036°+8.3°3%
046°+8.4°3%
056°+8.6°3%
066°+8.6°3%
076°+8.5°3%
087°+7.1°3%
0910°+4.6°3%
1011°+2.9°6%
1113°+1.8°15%
1213°+1.0°42%
1314°+0.5°72%
1414°+0.3°94%
1514°+0.2°98%
1613°+0.4°99%
1711°+0.7°98%
189°+0.6°98%
198°+0.4°100%
208°+0.6°100%
217°+0.6°100%
227°+0.5°100%
237°+0.4°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken2.2° below normal across 104 days (-2.8 to -1.7).
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+0.1°68d
broken-2.2°104d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it
coldernormalwarmer
NW+1.8°19d
W+1.2°41d
VARIABLE+0.6°52d
S-0.1°15d
SW-0.2°32d
SE-0.6°35d
E-0.9°23d
NE-1.4°29d
N-1.6°44d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 8°C | 4°C | 11°C | 7°C | 9°C |
| 01:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 12°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 02:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 12°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 03:00 | 9°C | 4°C | 11°C | 5°C | 9°C |
| 04:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 11°C | 5°C | 9°C |
| 05:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 11°C | 5°C | 9°C |
| 06:00 | 8°C | 2°C | 11°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 07:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 11°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 08:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 11°C | 7°C | 9°C |
| 09:00 | 10°C | 7°C | 12°C | 9°C | 10°C |
| 10:00 | 12°C | 9°C | 14°C | 10°C | 12°C |
| 11:00 | 12°C | 9°C | 16°C | 10°C | 15°C |
| 12:00 | 14°C | 9°C | 16°C | 11°C | 16°C |
| 13:00 | 14°C | 9°C | 17°C | 11°C | 16°C |
| 14:00 | 14°C | 9°C | 18°C | 11°C | 17°C |
| 15:00 | 14°C | 9°C | 18°C | 11°C | 17°C |
| 16:00 | 14°C | 9°C | 18°C | 11°C | 17°C |
| 17:00 | 13°C | 9°C | 16°C | 10°C | 15°C |
| 18:00 | 11°C | 9°C | 15°C | 10°C | 13°C |
| 19:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 11°C | 9°C | 11°C |
| 20:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 10°C | 8°C | 10°C |
| 21:00 | 8°C | 5°C | 10°C | 7°C | 9°C |
| 22:00 | 8°C | 4°C | 10°C | 7°C | 9°C |
| 23:00 | 9°C | 4°C | 11°C | 6°C | 9°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
10°C
—
11-08
12°C
—
11-07
9°C
—
11-06
11°C
—
11-05
14°C
—
11-04
11°C
—
11-03
14°C
—
11-02
16°C
—
11-01
14°C
—
10-31
17°C
—
10-30
18°C
—
10-29
18°C
—
10-28
17°C
—
10-27
17°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON12°12°+0.2°
07-11ICON11°9°+2.3°
06-11ICON11°11°+0.4°
05-11ICON13°14°-0.9°
04-11ICON12°11°+1.4°
03-11ICON14°14°+0.2°
02-11ICON16°16°-0.0°
01-11ICON13°14°-1.4°
31-10ICON17°17°+0.1°
30-10ICON17°18°-1.0°
29-10ICON18°18°+0.4°
28-10ICON17°17°+0.5°
27-10ICON17°17°-0.4°
26-10ICON16°15°+1.3°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.9°, within a degree on
60% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
UK Met Office13.2°13.0°0.84°most accurate here
DWD ICON12.2°11.9°0.86°
NOAA GFS12.8°10.9°0.94°
ECMWF IFS13.9°13.5°1.00°
JMA GSM9.4°14.0°1.12°
Environment Canada GEM11.7°11.9°1.30°
CMA GRAPES10.4°10.9°2.15°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
UK Met Office0.84°-0.43°66%
DWD ICON0.86°-0.52°63%
NOAA GFS0.94°-0.08°68%
ECMWF IFS1.00°-0.57°58%
JMA GSM1.12°-0.36°45%
Environment Canada GEM1.30°-1.10°53%
CMA GRAPES2.15°-2.01°21%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Zvariable 4kt; 1400m; mist; broken at 1,000ft
temporarily40%10/06Z→10/09Z500m; fog; broken at 400ft
becoming10/09Z→10/11Z8000m; scattered at 2,000ft
temporarily10/21Z→11/01Z2000m; patches of fog; broken at 1,000ft
temporarily11/01Z→11/07Z500m; fog; broken at 400ft
TAF LIMC 100500Z 1006/1112 VRB04KT 1400 BR BKN010 PROB40 TEMPO 1006/1009 0500 FG BKN004 BECMG 1009/1011 8000 SCT020 TEMPO 1021/1101 2000 BCFG BKN010 TEMPO 1101/1107 0500 FG BKN004
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤7°C0%0%0/67
8°C0%0%0/67
9°C0%4%3/67
10°C0%4%3/67
11°C5%7%5/67
12°C18%9%6/67
13°C46%7%5/67
14°C33%15%10/67
15°C1%16%11/67
16°C0%15%10/67
≥17°C0%21%14/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.