live obs
77°F
KMIA 0653Z
today high so far
77°F
at 00:53 · last 01:53
forecast peak83°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests86°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+9.3°
usually warmestsunset 17:35
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤73°F0%0¢
74-75°F0%0¢
76-77°F<1%0¢
78-79°F<1%0¢
80-81°F3%2¢
82-83°F25%12¢
84-85°F44%72¢
86-87°F22%11¢
88-89°F6%0¢
90-91°F<1%0¢
≥92°F<1%0¢
Our estimate, from CMA GRAPES's forecast made early this morning (84.4° after taking
out its usual 2.9° cold lean here), narrowed by what KMIA has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KMIA, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
01:53
77°
68°
000/00
BKN060
—
00:53
77°
68°
090/03
BKN080
—
23:53
79°
68°
120/03
BKN080
—
22:53
79°
68°
090/04
BKN080
—
21:53
79°
68°
110/04
BKN080
—
20:53
79°
68°
120/05
BKN085
—
19:53
80°
68°
110/06
BKN050
—
18:53
80°
67°
100/09
SCT050
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 77°F at 01:53 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (76°F–79°F)
KMIA, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°F (n=13) — projects to ~77°F @ 13:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint falling (68°F→68°F)
drying — accelerates warming
!
Clock test: METAR (77°F @ 01:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥86°F possible
14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥86°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.1°F behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 82°F, current 77°F @ 01:53
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KMIA, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
78.1°F
usual 75.9°F–79.0°F
typical 13:00
84.9°F
usual 82.9°F–86.0°F
noon → peak climb
+0.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
87°F
14d high, 2026 10 29
avg high84.9°F
usual range82.9°F – 86.0°F
days ≥86°F5 / 14
days ≥87°F2 / 14
days ≥88°F0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 63% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 63% of 134 days, most often around 12:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.1°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00-0.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00-1.2°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-2.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-3.7°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-4.6°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-5.1°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-5.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 01:53)
implied peak~85°F (clim)
vs ecmwf 82°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KMIA
heating passport climb to peak
67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
77° now at 02:00typically +9.3° more (p90 +15.0°)expected peak 86°peak already set on 1% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0075°+8.5°1%
0175°+9.0°1%
0275°+9.3°1%
0374°+9.8°1%
0474°+9.9°1%
0574°+10.0°1%
0674°+10.0°1%
0776°+8.0°1%
0878°+5.8°1%
0980°+3.7°3%
1082°+2.1°27%
1182°+1.3°47%
1283°+0.8°65%
1383°+0.5°85%
1482°+0.2°97%
1581°+0.1°100%
1680°+0.1°100%
1779°+0.2°100%
1878°+0.3°100%
1978°+0.3°100%
2077°+0.1°100%
2177°+0.2°100%
2276°+0.1°100%
2375°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken+0.1° across 222 days (-0.1 to +0.4) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
scattered+1.1°106d
broken+0.1°222d
overcast-2.8°43d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 0kt+0.3° across 115 days (-0.1 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+1.1°29d
SE+0.9°61d
W+0.6°13d
S+0.4°22d
E+0.3°115d
NE-0.5°80d
N-2.7°21d
NW-2.8°19d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 77°F | 76°F | 81°F | 76°F | 79°F |
| 01:00 | 78°F | 74°F | 81°F | 76°F | 79°F |
| 02:00 | 78°F | 74°F | 80°F | 76°F | 79°F |
| 03:00 | 77°F | 74°F | 79°F | 76°F | 79°F |
| 04:00 | 77°F | 75°F | 80°F | 75°F | 79°F |
| 05:00 | 77°F | 75°F | 80°F | 76°F | 79°F |
| 06:00 | 77°F | 75°F | 80°F | 76°F | 78°F |
| 07:00 | 76°F | 75°F | 79°F | 75°F | 79°F |
| 08:00 | 78°F | 75°F | 81°F | 77°F | 80°F |
| 09:00 | 80°F | 76°F | 83°F | 78°F | 81°F |
| 10:00 | 82°F | 77°F | 84°F | 80°F | 83°F |
| 11:00 | 84°F | 75°F | 85°F | 83°F | 84°F |
| 12:00 | 85°F | 74°F | 86°F | 82°F | 85°F |
| 13:00 | 84°F | 74°F | 86°F | 81°F | 85°F |
| 14:00 | 84°F | 74°F | 87°F | 83°F | 86°F |
| 15:00 | 84°F | 75°F | 86°F | 83°F | 85°F |
| 16:00 | 83°F | 77°F | 86°F | 80°F | 84°F |
| 17:00 | 82°F | 72°F | 86°F | 80°F | 84°F |
| 18:00 | 81°F | 72°F | 83°F | 78°F | 82°F |
| 19:00 | 80°F | 73°F | 82°F | 78°F | 81°F |
| 20:00 | 79°F | 72°F | 81°F | 78°F | 81°F |
| 21:00 | 79°F | 73°F | 82°F | 78°F | 80°F |
| 22:00 | 79°F | 75°F | 81°F | 77°F | 80°F |
| 23:00 | 79°F | 75°F | 81°F | 77°F | 79°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
84°F
—
11-08
85°F
—
11-07
86°F
—
11-06
85°F
—
11-05
85°F
—
11-04
83°F
—
11-03
86°F
—
11-02
85°F
—
11-01
81°F
—
10-31
85°F
—
10-30
86°F
—
10-29
87°F
—
10-28
87°F
—
10-27
82°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11CMA GRAPES84°85°-0.5°
07-11CMA GRAPES86°86°-0.2°
06-11CMA GRAPES86°85°+1.2°
05-11CMA GRAPES85°85°+0.3°
04-11CMA GRAPES84°83°+1.2°
03-11CMA GRAPES86°86°+0.2°
02-11CMA GRAPES82°85°-2.8°
01-11ICON82°81°+1.2°
31-10ICON84°85°-0.7°
30-10ICON85°86°-1.0°
29-10ICON87°87°-0.4°
28-10ICON86°87°-1.1°
27-10ICON83°82°+0.9°
26-10ICON84°83°+0.6°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.0°, within a degree on
61% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by3.6°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
UK Met Office83.5°84.0°1.52°most accurate here
DWD ICON81.5°82.4°1.59°
JMA GSM84.7°83.8°1.89°
NOAA GFS82.2°84.2°2.17°
Environment Canada GEM85.1°84.2°2.28°
CMA GRAPES81.5°81.9°2.66°
ECMWF IFS81.9°81.7°2.74°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
UK Met Office1.52°-1.04°41%
DWD ICON1.59°-1.41°36%
JMA GSM1.89°-1.64°28%
NOAA GFS2.17°-1.77°23%
Environment Canada GEM2.28°-1.97°36%
CMA GRAPES2.66°-2.57°8%
ECMWF IFS2.74°-2.69°13%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Zvariable 4kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft; broken at 8,000ft
from10/16Z onwards120° 8kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft; scattered at 5,000ft
from11/01Z onwardsvariable 4kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 3,000ft; scattered at 5,000ft
TAF KMIA 100521Z 1006/1112 VRB04KT P6SM SCT030 BKN080 FM101600 12008KT P6SM SCT030 SCT050 FM110100 VRB04KT P6SM SCT030 SCT050
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤73°F0%1%1/67
74-75°F0%1%1/67
76-77°F0%0%0/67
78-79°F0%4%3/67
80-81°F2%10%7/67
82-83°F12%15%10/67
84-85°F72%40%27/67
86-87°F11%25%17/67
88-89°F0%1%1/67
90-91°F0%0%0/67
≥92°F0%0%0/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 99% and climatology to 100%.