Madrid (LEMD) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤13°C0%0¢

14°C<1%0¢

15°C1%1¢

16°C12%8¢

17°C36%55¢

18°C25%36¢

19°C16%3¢

20°C9%1¢

21°C1%0¢

22°C<1%0¢

≥23°C<1%0¢

Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (17.6° after taking out its usual 0.9° cold lean here), narrowed by what LEMD has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR LEMD, 8 obs

SPECI LEMD 100714Z 16010KT 130V190 4000 RA SCT015 SCT028 BKN035 13/12 Q1013 TEMPO 7000

local temp dew wind cloud wx

08:14 13° 12° 160/10 BKN035 RA

08:00 13° 12° 150/08 BKN035 -RA

07:40 13° 12° 150/08 BKN027 RA

07:30 13° 12° 150/08 BKN020 RA

07:20 13° 12° 150/08 BKN020 DZ

07:00 13° 12° 160/08 BKN025 -RA

06:30 13° 12° 150/07 BKN035 -DZ

06:00 14° 12° 160/09 BKN045 -DZ

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▲

METAR 13°C at 08:14 local, +7.0°C vs 14d-median (6°C this hour) LEMD, running ahead of climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +3.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~16°C @ 16:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (12°C→12°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift

!

Clock test: METAR (13°C @ 08:14) with climatology suggests peak ≥21°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥21°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running +7.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 17°C, current 13°C @ 08:14

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days LEMD, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 6.0°C usual 5.0°C–8.0°C

typical 16:00 20.0°C usual 16.0°C–22.0°C

noon → peak climb +3.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

23°C

14d high, 2026 10 28

avg high20.0°C

usual range16.0°C – 22.0°C

days ≥21°C6 / 14

days ≥22°C5 / 14

days ≥23°C2 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

14:00–16:00

where the high landed on 74% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 14:00 and 16:00 local on 74% of 135 days, most often around 15:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 16:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+1.8°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00+2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00+2.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00+1.9°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 19:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 20:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=132

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:14)

implied peak~18°C (clim) vs ecmwf 17°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations LEMD

heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

13° now at 08:00typically +8.2° more (p90 +14.0°)expected peak 21°peak already set on 1% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0010°+6.5°1%

0110°+6.9°1%

029°+7.3°1%

039°+7.6°1%

049°+7.9°2%

059°+8.0°1%

068°+8.2°1%

078°+8.3°1%

088°+8.2°1%

0910°+7.2°1%

1011°+5.7°1%

1113°+4.1°3%

1214°+2.8°7%

1315°+1.7°19%

1416°+0.9°46%

1516°+0.5°75%

1616°+0.3°96%

1716°+0.4°99%

1814°+0.5°98%

1913°+0.3°98%

2012°+0.3°100%

2112°+0.4°100%

2211°+0.3°100%

2311°+0.2°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken1.7° below normal across 80 days (-2.2 to -1.2).

coldernormalwarmer

few-0.1°26d

scattered-1.4°70d

broken-1.7°80d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowS at 10kt-0.7° across 54 days (-1.4 to +0.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

CALM+1.1°118d

VARIABLE+0.7°34d

SE+0.1°13d

S-0.7°54d

SW-0.8°67d

N-1.3°24d

W-1.4°13d

NE-1.8°30d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	10°C	5°C	13°C	8°C	11°C
01:00	9°C	4°C	12°C	7°C	10°C
02:00	9°C	3°C	13°C	7°C	9°C
03:00	8°C	2°C	12°C	6°C	9°C
04:00	7°C	2°C	12°C	5°C	8°C
05:00	7°C	1°C	13°C	4°C	8°C
06:00	6°C	0°C	13°C	4°C	8°C
07:00	6°C	0°C	13°C	5°C	7°C
08:00	6°C	0°C	13°C	5°C	8°C
09:00	7°C	1°C	14°C	6°C	10°C
10:00	10°C	5°C	15°C	8°C	12°C
11:00	13°C	7°C	16°C	10°C	14°C
12:00	15°C	10°C	18°C	12°C	16°C
13:00	17°C	12°C	21°C	14°C	18°C
14:00	17°C	13°C	21°C	14°C	20°C
15:00	18°C	14°C	22°C	15°C	21°C
16:00	19°C	14°C	23°C	16°C	21°C
17:00	20°C	14°C	23°C	16°C	22°C
18:00	18°C	13°C	21°C	15°C	20°C
19:00	17°C	10°C	19°C	14°C	18°C
20:00	14°C	10°C	19°C	12°C	15°C
21:00	13°C	7°C	18°C	11°C	14°C
22:00	12°C	7°C	14°C	10°C	12°C
23:00	11°C	6°C	13°C	10°C	12°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 17°C —

11-08 16°C —

11-07 18°C —

11-06 17°C —

11-05 16°C —

11-04 15°C —

11-03 14°C —

11-02 20°C —

11-01 21°C —

10-31 22°C —

10-30 22°C —

10-29 22°C —

10-28 23°C —

10-27 23°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ICON17°16°+0.6°

07-11ICON19°18°+0.6°

06-11ICON17°17°+0.3°

05-11ICON16°16°+0.4°

04-11ICON16°15°+0.6°

03-11ICON16°14°+1.9°

02-11ICON21°20°+0.5°

01-11ICON22°21°+0.5°

31-10ICON22°22°+0.4°

30-10ICON23°22°+1.3°

29-10ICON23°22°+1.0°

28-10ICON23°23°-0.2°

27-10ICON22°23°-0.8°

26-10ICON24°24°-0.1°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.1°, within a degree on 63% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by1.8°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON16.8°15.3°1.07°most accurate here

NOAA GFS16.7°16.1°1.32°

ECMWF IFS17.0°15.3°1.39°

Environment Canada GEM17.3°14.3°1.62°

UK Met Office17.9°15.2°1.91°

JMA GSM16.6°14.7°2.14°

CMA GRAPES16.1°14.7°3.44°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON1.07°-1.03°55%

NOAA GFS1.32°-0.85°42%

ECMWF IFS1.39°-1.29°39%

Environment Canada GEM1.62°-1.38°32%

UK Met Office1.91°-1.66°24%

JMA GSM2.14°-1.83°13%

CMA GRAPES3.44°-3.26°8%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/07Z→11/12ZAMENDED

forecast max18°at 10/15Zmin 13°issued by the national met service

base10/07Z→11/12Z190° 10kt; 10km+; scattered at 2,500ft

temporarily10/07Z→10/16Z4000m; drizzle rain; rain; broken at 1,400ft

temporarily40%10/12Z→10/19Z200° 15kt gusting 25

temporarily10/16Z→11/03Z3000m; rain; showers rain; broken at 1,400ft; scattered at 2,000ft (TCU)

temporarily40%10/22Z→11/03Z190° 15kt gusting 25

becoming11/03Z→11/05Zvariable 5kt

temporarily11/03Z→11/12Z4000m; rain; mist; broken at 1,000ft

TAF AMD LEMD 100713Z 1007/1112 19010KT 9999 SCT025 TX18/1015Z TN13/1106Z TEMPO 1007/1016 4000 DZRA RA BKN014 PROB40 TEMPO 1012/1019 20015G25KT TEMPO 1016/1103 3000 RA SHRA BKN014 SCT020TCU PROB40 TEMPO 1022/1103 19015G25KT BECMG 1103/1105 VRB05KT TEMPO 1103/1112 4000 RA BR BKN010

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤13°C0%7%5/67

14°C0%10%7/67

15°C1%13%9/67

16°C8%15%10/67

17°C55%18%12/67

18°C36%15%10/67

19°C3%7%5/67

20°C1%9%6/67

21°C0%1%1/67

22°C0%1%1/67

≥23°C0%1%1/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.