London (EGLC) temperature today: live low, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's low, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤3°C2%4¢

4°C7%5¢

5°C13%36¢

6°C78%64¢

7°C0%0¢

8°C0%0¢

9°C0%0¢

10°C0%0¢

11°C0%0¢

12°C0%0¢

≥13°C0%0¢

Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (5.3° after taking out its usual 0.1° warm lean here), narrowed by what EGLC has reported so far and by how much it usually still falls after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR EGLC, 8 obs

METAR EGLC 100720Z AUTO 05006KT 020V090 2900 BR OVC001 06/05 Q1012

local temp dew wind cloud wx

07:20 6° 5° 050/06 OVC001 BR

06:50 6° 5° 070/06 OVC001 BR

06:20 6° 5° 070/08 OVC002 BR

05:50 6° 5° 070/08 OVC003 BR

05:20 6° 5° 060/04 OVC006 BR

04:50 6° 5° 050/04 OVC006 BR

04:20 6° 5° 070/06 OVC002 BR

03:50 6° 5° 040/05 OVC002 BR

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▼

METAR 6°C at 07:20 local, -3.0°C vs 14d-median (9°C this hour) EGLC, running behind climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~6°C @ 13:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint stable (5°C→5°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift

!

Clock test: METAR (6°C @ 07:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥13°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥13°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current 6°C @ 07:20

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days EGLC, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 9.0°C usual 8.0°C–10.0°C

typical 13:00 12.0°C usual 10.0°C–17.0°C

noon → peak climb +0.0°C

how cold it gets last 14 days

17°C

14d low, 2026 10 29

avg high12.0°C

usual range10.0°C – 17.0°C

days ≥13°C6 / 14

days ≥14°C5 / 14

days ≥15°C5 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

11:00–13:00

where the high landed on 70% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 70% of 110 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00-0.6°C mean, 5y, n=133

12:00 → 17:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 18:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 19:00-1.4°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 20:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=132

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 07:20)

implied peak~11°C (clim) vs ecmwf 5°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations EGLC

heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

6° now at 07:00typically +2.7° more (p90 +5.0°)expected peak 9°peak already set on 21% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0010°+2.8°12%

0110°+2.8°14%

0210°+2.8°16%

0310°+2.9°18%

0410°+2.9°18%

0510°+2.9°19%

0610°+2.8°19%

0710°+2.7°21%

0811°+2.3°22%

0911°+1.8°30%

1012°+1.4°39%

1112°+0.9°55%

1212°+0.5°73%

1312°+0.2°90%

1412°+0.2°93%

1512°+0.2°94%

1612°+0.3°95%

1711°+0.2°95%

1811°+0.2°97%

1911°+0.3°97%

2011°+0.2°97%

2110°+0.2°97%

2210°+0.1°98%

2310°+0.0°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowovercast0.7° below normal across 58 days (-1.3 to -0.1).

coldernormalwarmer

clear+1.5°53d

few-0.1°87d

scattered-0.2°115d

broken+0.1°75d

overcast-0.7°58d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowNE at 6kt1.2° below normal across 20 days (-2.1 to -0.2).

coldernormalwarmer

S+1.2°49d

SE+1.2°25d

E+0.8°37d

SW+0.6°109d

W-0.4°77d

NE-1.2°20d

N-1.9°12d

NW-2.7°36d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	10°C	6°C	17°C	9°C	10°C
01:00	9°C	4°C	17°C	9°C	10°C
02:00	9°C	5°C	17°C	9°C	10°C
03:00	9°C	5°C	16°C	9°C	10°C
04:00	9°C	5°C	16°C	8°C	10°C
05:00	9°C	5°C	16°C	9°C	10°C
06:00	9°C	5°C	17°C	8°C	9°C
07:00	9°C	6°C	16°C	8°C	10°C
08:00	9°C	6°C	15°C	8°C	10°C
09:00	10°C	6°C	14°C	8°C	10°C
10:00	10°C	7°C	14°C	9°C	10°C
11:00	10°C	7°C	15°C	10°C	12°C
12:00	11°C	8°C	17°C	10°C	14°C
13:00	11°C	9°C	16°C	10°C	15°C
14:00	12°C	10°C	16°C	10°C	15°C
15:00	11°C	10°C	16°C	10°C	15°C
16:00	11°C	10°C	16°C	10°C	14°C
17:00	11°C	9°C	17°C	10°C	13°C
18:00	11°C	8°C	17°C	10°C	13°C
19:00	11°C	8°C	17°C	10°C	12°C
20:00	10°C	7°C	17°C	10°C	12°C
21:00	10°C	7°C	17°C	9°C	12°C
22:00	10°C	7°C	17°C	9°C	11°C
23:00	10°C	7°C	17°C	9°C	11°C

observed lows last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 10°C —

11-08 10°C —

11-07 11°C —

11-06 11°C —

11-05 10°C —

11-04 10°C —

11-03 12°C —

11-02 13°C —

11-01 11°C —

10-31 15°C —

10-30 15°C —

10-29 17°C —

10-28 17°C —

10-27 17°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid lowmiss

08-11ICON6°6°+0.0°

07-11ICON5°5°-0.3°

06-11ICON9°7°+1.5°

05-11ICON9°9°-0.3°

04-11ICON8°9°-0.9°

03-11ICON8°8°+0.1°

02-11ICON8°8°-0.1°

01-11ICON7°8°-0.9°

31-10ICON9°8°+1.0°

30-10ICON10°9°+0.5°

29-10ICON11°10°+1.0°

28-10ICON8°9°-0.6°

27-10ICON10°10°-0.1°

26-10ICON9°10°-0.9°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.5°, within a degree on 93% of days.

what each model says daily minimum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by3.4°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON5.3°7.5°0.45°most accurate here

ECMWF IFS3.9°7.9°0.73°

JMA GSM6.6°8.2°0.82°

UK Met Office5.8°7.7°0.87°

NOAA GFS6.6°8.1°0.92°

CMA GRAPES5.6°6.5°1.51°

Environment Canada GEM3.2°4.9°1.57°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON0.45°+0.12°89%

ECMWF IFS0.73°-0.48°76%

JMA GSM0.82°-0.16°79%

UK Met Office0.87°+0.74°66%

NOAA GFS0.92°+0.71°76%

CMA GRAPES1.51°-1.48°26%

Environment Canada GEM1.57°-1.49°39%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→10/15ZAMENDED

base10/06Z→10/15Z060° 6kt; 5000m; mist; broken at 500ft

temporarily10/06Z→10/09Z4000m; broken at 300ft

possibly30%10/06Z→10/09Z300m; fog; sky obscured

becoming10/09Z→10/12Z10km+; few at 2,000ft

TAF AMD EGLC 100607Z 1006/1015 06006KT 5000 BR BKN005 TEMPO 1006/1009 4000 BKN003 PROB30 1006/1009 0300 FG VV/// BECMG 1009/1012 9999 NSW FEW020

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤3°C4%1%1/67

4°C5%4%3/67

5°C36%4%3/67

6°C64%7%5/67

7°C0%15%10/67

8°C0%15%10/67

9°C0%18%12/67

10°C0%10%7/67

11°C0%10%7/67

12°C0%3%2/67

≥13°C0%10%7/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 110% and climatology to 100%.