live obs
70°F
KLAX 0653Z
today high so far
85°F
at 11:53
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
usually warmestsunset 16:54
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤75°F0%0¢
76-77°F0%0¢
78-79°F0%0¢
80-81°F0%0¢
82-83°F0%0¢
84-85°F>99%100¢
86-87°F0%0¢
88-89°F0%0¢
90-91°F0%0¢
92-93°F0%0¢
≥94°F0%0¢
Our estimate, from UK Met Office's forecast made early this morning (83.0° after taking
out its usual 1.5° cold lean here), narrowed by what KLAX has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KLAX, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
22:53
70°
62°
080/04
CLR
—
21:53
72°
63°
150/04
CLR
—
20:53
72°
65°
250/04
CLR
—
19:53
72°
65°
250/05
CLR
—
18:53
72°
63°
270/09
CLR
—
17:53
73°
63°
270/08
CLR
—
16:53
74°
60°
270/09
FEW250
—
15:53
77°
56°
270/10
FEW250
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▲
METAR 70°F at 22:53 local, +2.0°F vs 14d-median (68°F this hour)
KLAX, running ahead of climatology
✓
Peak hour 11:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 85°F
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (63°F→62°F)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +2.0°F ahead of forecast trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 86°F, current 70°F @ 22:53
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KLAX, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-09
this hour median
68.0°F
usual 66.0°F–69.1°F
typical 11:00
73.9°F
usual 73.0°F–78.1°F
noon → peak climb
not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
88°F
14d high, 2026 11 08
avg high73.9°F
usual range73.0°F – 78.1°F
days ≥75°F5 / 14
days ≥76°F4 / 14
days ≥77°F4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 58% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 58% of 137 days, most often around 11:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 11:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00-1.2°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-2.9°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-4.8°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-5.7°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-6.1°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-6.4°F mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-7.3°F mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:00—
implied peak—
vs ecmwf 86°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KLAX
heating passport climb to peak
68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
70° now at 23:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0059°+11.5°3%
0158°+12.6°3%
0257°+13.2°3%
0357°+13.8°3%
0456°+14.3°3%
0556°+14.1°3%
0657°+13.5°3%
0760°+10.0°4%
0864°+6.4°4%
0967°+3.7°9%
1069°+1.7°36%
1169°+0.6°69%
1269°+0.5°88%
1368°+0.3°94%
1468°+0.1°99%
1566°+0.1°100%
1664°+0.3°100%
1763°+0.3°100%
1863°+0.3°100%
1962°+0.2°100%
2062°+0.4°100%
2161°+0.3°100%
2261°+0.2°100%
2360°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear3.2° above normal across 27 days (+1.5 to +4.9).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+3.2°27d
few+0.3°116d
scattered-0.8°134d
broken-1.4°83d
overcast-5.4°27d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 4ktnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+2.1°14d
W-0.6°253d
SW-1.2°99d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 67°F | 60°F | 71°F | 65°F | 68°F |
| 01:00 | 65°F | 60°F | 69°F | 62°F | 67°F |
| 02:00 | 63°F | 59°F | 69°F | 61°F | 66°F |
| 03:00 | 63°F | 58°F | 67°F | 60°F | 65°F |
| 04:00 | 62°F | 57°F | 66°F | 60°F | 64°F |
| 05:00 | 61°F | 55°F | 67°F | 59°F | 64°F |
| 06:00 | 61°F | 57°F | 67°F | 59°F | 64°F |
| 07:00 | 63°F | 58°F | 66°F | 61°F | 64°F |
| 08:00 | 65°F | 62°F | 71°F | 63°F | 68°F |
| 09:00 | 67°F | 64°F | 77°F | 66°F | 73°F |
| 10:00 | 70°F | 67°F | 80°F | 69°F | 73°F |
| 11:00 | 72°F | 68°F | 84°F | 71°F | 76°F |
| 12:00 | 74°F | 69°F | 87°F | 72°F | 78°F |
| 13:00 | 74°F | 69°F | 88°F | 72°F | 77°F |
| 14:00 | 74°F | 70°F | 88°F | 72°F | 76°F |
| 15:00 | 73°F | 69°F | 83°F | 72°F | 74°F |
| 16:00 | 72°F | 68°F | 80°F | 70°F | 74°F |
| 17:00 | 71°F | 66°F | 76°F | 69°F | 72°F |
| 18:00 | 69°F | 66°F | 74°F | 68°F | 71°F |
| 19:00 | 69°F | 66°F | 74°F | 68°F | 71°F |
| 20:00 | 68°F | 64°F | 75°F | 67°F | 71°F |
| 21:00 | 68°F | 63°F | 73°F | 67°F | 69°F |
| 22:00 | 68°F | 62°F | 72°F | 66°F | 69°F |
| 23:00 | 67°F | 62°F | 71°F | 64°F | 69°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
71°F
—
11-08
88°F
—
11-07
84°F
—
11-06
83°F
—
11-05
78°F
—
11-04
73°F
—
11-03
73°F
—
11-02
73°F
—
11-01
70°F
—
10-31
71°F
—
10-30
70°F
—
10-29
73°F
—
10-28
74°F
—
10-27
75°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11UK Met Office84°88°-3.8°
07-11UK Met Office83°84°-1.2°
06-11UK Met Office80°83°-2.9°
05-11UK Met Office77°78°-0.7°
04-11UK Met Office74°73°+0.7°
03-11UK Met Office72°73°-0.8°
02-11UK Met Office73°73°-0.1°
01-11UK Met Office71°70°+1.3°
31-10UK Met Office73°71°+2.0°
30-10UK Met Office71°70°+1.3°
29-10UK Met Office72°73°-0.6°
28-10UK Met Office74°74°-0.5°
27-10UK Met Office76°75°+1.3°
26-10UK Met Office78°77°+1.2°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.7°, within a degree on
32% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by8.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
NOAA GFS85.8°83.8°1.57°most accurate here
UK Met Office81.5°81.5°1.99°
DWD ICON85.5°84.0°2.30°
Environment Canada GEM87.8°85.5°2.42°
CMA GRAPES80.1°79.9°2.99°
JMA GSM80.2°75.7°3.37°
ECMWF IFS88.5°88.0°4.04°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
NOAA GFS1.57°-0.27°41%
UK Met Office1.99°-1.80°41%
DWD ICON2.30°+1.52°33%
Environment Canada GEM2.42°+1.15°36%
CMA GRAPES2.99°-0.98°15%
JMA GSM3.37°-1.67°5%
ECMWF IFS4.04°+3.61°21%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z270° 8kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/08Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/10Z onwards070° 6kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/15Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from10/20Z onwards260° 10kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from11/03Z onwards260° 6kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
from11/07Z onwardsvariable 3kt; >6 statute miles; no significant cloud
TAF KLAX 100520Z 1006/1112 27008KT P6SM SKC FM100800 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM101000 07006KT P6SM SKC FM101500 VRB03KT P6SM SKC FM102000 26010KT P6SM SKC FM110300 26006KT P6SM SKC FM110700 VRB03KT P6SM SKC
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤75°F0%82%56/68
76-77°F0%9%6/68
78-79°F0%3%2/68
80-81°F0%0%0/68
82-83°F0%3%2/68
84-85°F100%1%1/68
86-87°F0%0%0/68
88-89°F0%1%1/68
90-91°F0%0%0/68
92-93°F0%0%0/68
≥94°F0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.