live obs
31°C
WMKK 0700Z
today high so far
34°C
at 14:30
peakalready set
left to climb+0.5°
usually warmestsunset 18:57
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤26°C0%0¢
27°C0%0¢
28°C0%0¢
29°C0%0¢
30°C0%0¢
31°C0%0¢
32°C0%0¢
33°C0%0¢
34°C94%100¢
35°C5%0¢
≥36°C1%0¢
Our estimate, from JMA's forecast made early this morning (32.7° after taking
out its usual 3.8° cold lean here), narrowed by what WMKK has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
WMKK, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
15:00
31°
24°
340/06
SCT018+CB
—
14:30
34°
25°
—
SCT018+CB
—
14:00
33°
24°
—
SCT018+CB
—
13:30
33°
23°
—
SCT018+CB
—
13:00
33°
24°
—
SCT018
—
12:30
32°
24°
—
FEW018
—
12:00
32°
25°
030/04
FEW018
—
11:30
32°
24°
040/04
FEW018
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 31°C at 15:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (28°C–32°C)
WMKK, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 13:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 34°C
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): -1.3°C/h, dewpoint rising (25°C→24°C)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -1.0°C behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 31°C, current 31°C @ 15:00
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
WMKK, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
32.0°C
usual 28.0°C–32.0°C
typical 13:00
33.0°C
usual 32.0°C–33.0°C
noon → peak climb
+0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
34°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high33.0°C
usual range32.0°C – 33.0°C
days ≥34°C2 / 14
days ≥35°C0 / 14
days ≥36°C0 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 73% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 73% of 139 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-2.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-3.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:0032°C
implied peak32°C
vs ecmwf 31°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
WMKK
heating passport climb to peak
136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
31° now at 15:00peak already set on 99% of days by nowtypically only +0.5° left (p90 +2.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0026°+5.8°1%
0126°+6.2°0%
0226°+6.4°0%
0325°+6.6°0%
0425°+6.8°0%
0525°+7.0°0%
0625°+7.1°0%
0725°+7.1°0%
0826°+6.1°0%
0928°+4.4°0%
1029°+3.1°1%
1130°+1.9°15%
1231°+1.1°39%
1331°+0.7°70%
1431°+0.6°90%
1530°+0.5°99%
1630°+0.5°99%
1729°+0.4°100%
1828°+0.3°100%
1927°+0.3°100%
2027°+0.2°100%
2127°+0.3°100%
2226°+0.2°100%
2326°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowscattered0.3° below normal across 211 days (-0.5 to -0.1).
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.2°177d
scattered-0.3°211d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 6ktnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
W-0.1°14d
NW-0.5°50d
CALM-1.3°14d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 26°C | 25°C | 27°C | 25°C | 27°C |
| 01:00 | 25°C | 25°C | 27°C | 25°C | 26°C |
| 02:00 | 25°C | 25°C | 27°C | 25°C | 26°C |
| 03:00 | 25°C | 24°C | 27°C | 25°C | 26°C |
| 04:00 | 25°C | 24°C | 27°C | 25°C | 26°C |
| 05:00 | 25°C | 24°C | 26°C | 25°C | 25°C |
| 06:00 | 25°C | 24°C | 27°C | 25°C | 25°C |
| 07:00 | 25°C | 24°C | 27°C | 25°C | 25°C |
| 08:00 | 25°C | 25°C | 26°C | 25°C | 26°C |
| 09:00 | 27°C | 25°C | 29°C | 27°C | 28°C |
| 10:00 | 30°C | 28°C | 31°C | 29°C | 30°C |
| 11:00 | 31°C | 27°C | 32°C | 30°C | 32°C |
| 12:00 | 31°C | 29°C | 33°C | 31°C | 32°C |
| 13:00 | 32°C | 30°C | 34°C | 31°C | 32°C |
| 14:00 | 32°C | 25°C | 34°C | 30°C | 32°C |
| 15:00 | 32°C | 25°C | 34°C | 28°C | 32°C |
| 16:00 | 31°C | 26°C | 33°C | 27°C | 32°C |
| 17:00 | 30°C | 26°C | 33°C | 27°C | 32°C |
| 18:00 | 28°C | 24°C | 31°C | 26°C | 31°C |
| 19:00 | 27°C | 24°C | 30°C | 25°C | 29°C |
| 20:00 | 27°C | 23°C | 29°C | 25°C | 28°C |
| 21:00 | 26°C | 24°C | 29°C | 25°C | 28°C |
| 22:00 | 26°C | 24°C | 28°C | 25°C | 27°C |
| 23:00 | 26°C | 25°C | 28°C | 25°C | 27°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10
25°C
—
11-09
31°C
—
11-08
32°C
—
11-07
33°C
—
11-06
30°C
—
11-05
33°C
—
11-04
33°C
—
11-03
34°C
—
11-02
33°C
—
11-01
34°C
—
10-31
33°C
—
10-30
32°C
—
10-29
32°C
—
10-28
33°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11JMA33°32°+0.9°
07-11JMA33°33°-0.5°
06-11JMA32°30°+1.8°
05-11JMA33°33°-0.3°
04-11JMA33°33°-0.5°
03-11JMA33°34°-1.4°
02-11JMA32°33°-0.6°
01-11JMA33°34°-1.1°
31-10JMA33°33°-0.3°
30-10JMA33°32°+0.5°
29-10JMA32°32°+0.0°
28-10JMA32°33°-0.7°
27-10JMA31°31°+0.5°
26-10JMA31°32°-1.0°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.6°, within a degree on
73% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.9°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON32.0°32.4°0.76°most accurate here
UK Met Office31.2°31.3°1.07°
CMA GRAPES33.9°30.7°1.31°
NOAA GFS31.3°29.4°1.39°
ECMWF IFS32.0°31.1°1.43°
Environment Canada GEM30.9°30.8°1.67°
JMA GSM28.0°28.6°3.87°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON0.76°-0.21°79%
UK Met Office1.07°-0.23°63%
CMA GRAPES1.31°-1.08°63%
NOAA GFS1.39°-1.14°47%
ECMWF IFS1.43°-1.39°45%
Environment Canada GEM1.67°-1.34°45%
JMA GSM3.87°-3.87°0%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Zvariable 3kt; 10km+; few at 1,800ft
temporarily10/08Z→10/12Z4000m; thunderstorm rain; few at 1,700ft (CB); scattered at 1,800ft
TAF WMKK 100500Z 1006/1112 VRB03KT 9999 FEW018 TEMPO 1008/1012 4000 TSRA FEW017CB SCT018
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤26°C0%1%1/68
27°C0%0%0/68
28°C0%0%0/68
29°C0%0%0/68
30°C0%13%9/68
31°C0%21%14/68
32°C0%26%18/68
33°C0%32%22/68
34°C100%4%3/68
35°C0%1%1/68
≥36°C0%0%0/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.