station climatology
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live obs
30°C
OEJN 0700Z
today high so far
30°C
at 10:00
forecast peak31°DWD ICON
typical further climb+2.4°
observed 10:00 local
usually warmestsunset 17:43
00040812162024 now
chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤27°C0%0¢
28°C0%0¢
29°C0%0¢
30°C2%1¢
31°C5%18¢
32°C8%44¢
33°C43%34¢
34°C33%4¢
35°C8%0¢
36°C1%0¢
≥37°C<1%0¢
Our estimate, from GFS's forecast made early this morning (31.6° after taking out its usual 1.1° cold lean here), narrowed by what OEJN has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h °C local
16°20°24°28°32°36°12:0015:0018:0021:0000:0003:0006:0009:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 30°C
16°20°24°28°32°36°00:0006:0012:0018:0000:0006:0012:0018:00ECMWF 32°CNOW 30°C
actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range
station report raw METAR OEJN, 8 obs
METAR OEJN 100700Z 01009KT CAVOK 30/20 Q1016 NOSIG
local temp dew wind cloud wx
10:00 30° 20° 010/09 CAVOK —
09:00 29° 19° 010/09 CAVOK —
08:00 28° 18° 010/05 CAVOK —
07:00 26° 18° 360/05 CAVOK —
06:00 26° 18° 020/03 CAVOK —
05:00 26° 18° 360/04 CAVOK —
04:00 27° 18° 020/05 CAVOK —
03:00 26° 19° 010/04 CAVOK —
current state
▼
METAR 30°C at 10:00 local, -3.0°C vs 14d-median (33°C this hour) OEJN, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (19°C→20°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (30°C @ 10:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥36°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥36°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 32°C, current 30°C @ 10:00
stations temperature + wind loading…
cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds
FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter
SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered
BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)
OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast
VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)
+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell
+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10
this hour median 33.0°C usual 31.0°C–34.0°C
typical 12:00 35.0°C usual 35.0°C–36.0°C
noon → peak climb not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
39°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high35.0°C
usual range35.0°C – 36.0°C
days ≥36°C6 / 14
days ≥37°C2 / 14
days ≥38°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 76% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 76% of 138 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.4°C mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:00)
implied peak— vs ecmwf 32°C
heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
30° now at 10:00typically +2.4° more (p90 +5.0°)expected peak 32°peak already set on 1% of days by now
hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked
0028°+6.0°0%
0128°+6.4°0%
0228°+6.7°0%
0327°+7.0°0%
0427°+7.3°0%
0527°+7.6°0%
0627°+7.9°0%
0726°+7.9°0%
0828°+6.2°0%
0930°+4.2°1%
1032°+2.4°1%
1133°+1.2°33%
1234°+0.4°75%
1334°+0.1°91%
1433°+0.1°99%
1533°+0.0°100%
1632°+0.1°100%
1731°+0.0°100%
1830°+0.0°100%
1930°+0.0°100%
2029°+0.0°100%
2129°+0.0°100%
2229°+0.0°100%
2329°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear0.9° above normal across 28 days (+0.2 to +1.6).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.9°28d
few-0.1°62d
scattered-0.7°23d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 9ktnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+2.6°13d
S+0.9°16d
SW+0.4°57d
NW+0.2°132d
W-0.5°155d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median local time
localmedminmaxp25p75
00:00 29°C 27°C 32°C 29°C 31°C
01:00 29°C 27°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
02:00 29°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
03:00 28°C 26°C 31°C 28°C 29°C
04:00 27°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
05:00 27°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 29°C
06:00 28°C 26°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
07:00 27°C 25°C 30°C 27°C 28°C
08:00 29°C 26°C 32°C 28°C 30°C
09:00 32°C 28°C 34°C 30°C 32°C
10:00 33°C 30°C 35°C 31°C 34°C
11:00 35°C 27°C 37°C 34°C 35°C
12:00 35°C 27°C 37°C 34°C 36°C
13:00 34°C 31°C 39°C 33°C 35°C
14:00 34°C 32°C 37°C 33°C 34°C
15:00 33°C 31°C 37°C 32°C 34°C
16:00 33°C 30°C 36°C 32°C 34°C
17:00 32°C 26°C 35°C 31°C 33°C
18:00 31°C 26°C 33°C 30°C 32°C
19:00 31°C 26°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
20:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
21:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
22:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 30°C 31°C
23:00 30°C 27°C 33°C 29°C 31°C
observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09 32°C —
11-08 32°C —
11-07 33°C —
11-06 35°C —
11-05 35°C —
11-04 36°C —
11-03 39°C —
11-02 36°C —
11-01 35°C —
10-31 36°C —
10-30 35°C —
10-29 35°C —
10-28 36°C —
10-27 38°C —
forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days
daymodelsaid highmiss
08-11ICON30°32°-2.2°
07-11ICON29°33°-3.7°
06-11ECMWF35°35°+0.4°
05-11ECMWF34°35°-1.4°
04-11ICON35°36°-1.3°
03-11ICON37°39°-2.3°
02-11ICON35°36°-0.8°
01-11ICON35°35°+0.3°
31-10ICON35°36°-0.6°
30-10ICON35°35°+0.3°
29-10ICON35°35°-0.1°
28-10ICON36°36°+0.5°
27-10ICON37°38°-0.7°
26-10ICON37°36°+0.5°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.9°, within a degree on 67% of days.
what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss
DWD ICON31.1°29.6°0.89°most accurate here
UK Met Office32.3°31.9°1.05°
NOAA GFS30.6°30.6°1.19°
Environment Canada GEM31.7°30.9°1.30°
ECMWF IFS32.7°29.7°1.59°
CMA GRAPES30.9°30.4°1.86°
JMA GSM28.7°28.7°5.02°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max
model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°
DWD ICON0.89°+0.13°71%
UK Met Office1.05°-0.11°58%
NOAA GFS1.19°-1.10°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.30°-1.26°55%
ECMWF IFS1.59°+1.39°29%
CMA GRAPES1.86°-1.86°18%
JMA GSM5.02°-5.02°0%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z320° 13kt; 7000m; scattered at 4,000ft
temporarily10/06Z→10/18Zvariable 25kt; 1500m; blowing dust; thunderstorm rain; few at 3,000ft (CB); broken at 4,000ft
becoming10/18Z→10/20Z020° 6kt
TAF OEJN 100600Z 1006/1112 32013KT 7000 SCT040 TEMPO 1006/1018 VRB25KT 1500 BLDU TSRA FEW030CB BKN040 BECMG 1018/1020 02006KT
market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date
max market climatology marketclimate days
≤27°C0%0%0/67
28°C0%0%0/67
29°C0%0%0/67
30°C1%1%1/67
31°C18%1%1/67
32°C44%7%5/67
33°C34%21%14/67
34°C4%25%17/67
35°C0%21%14/67
36°C0%13%9/67
≥37°C0%9%6/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.