forecast peak31°DWD ICON
typical further climb+2.4°
usually warmestsunset 17:43
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤27°C0%0¢
28°C0%0¢
29°C0%0¢
30°C2%1¢
31°C5%18¢
32°C8%44¢
33°C43%34¢
34°C33%4¢
35°C8%0¢
36°C1%0¢
≥37°C<1%0¢
Our estimate, from GFS's forecast made early this morning (31.6° after taking
out its usual 1.1° cold lean here), narrowed by what OEJN has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
OEJN, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
10:00
30°
20°
010/09
CAVOK
—
09:00
29°
19°
010/09
CAVOK
—
08:00
28°
18°
010/05
CAVOK
—
07:00
26°
18°
360/05
CAVOK
—
06:00
26°
18°
020/03
CAVOK
—
05:00
26°
18°
360/04
CAVOK
—
04:00
27°
18°
020/05
CAVOK
—
03:00
26°
19°
010/04
CAVOK
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▼
METAR 30°C at 10:00 local, -3.0°C vs 14d-median (33°C this hour)
OEJN, running behind climatology
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.0°C/h, dewpoint rising (19°C→20°C)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (30°C @ 10:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥36°C possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥36°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -3.0°C behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 32°C, current 30°C @ 10:00
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
OEJN, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
33.0°C
usual 31.0°C–34.0°C
typical 12:00
35.0°C
usual 35.0°C–36.0°C
noon → peak climb
not enough history
how hot it gets last 14 days
39°C
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high35.0°C
usual range35.0°C – 36.0°C
days ≥36°C6 / 14
days ≥37°C2 / 14
days ≥38°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–12:00
where the high landed on 76% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 12:00 local on 76% of 138 days, most often around 12:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 12:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 14:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 15:00-1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00-2.0°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-2.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-3.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.4°C mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:00)
implied peak—
vs ecmwf 32°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
OEJN
heating passport climb to peak
67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
30° now at 10:00typically +2.4° more (p90 +5.0°)expected peak 32°peak already set on 1% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0028°+6.0°0%
0128°+6.4°0%
0228°+6.7°0%
0327°+7.0°0%
0427°+7.3°0%
0527°+7.6°0%
0627°+7.9°0%
0726°+7.9°0%
0828°+6.2°0%
0930°+4.2°1%
1032°+2.4°1%
1133°+1.2°33%
1234°+0.4°75%
1334°+0.1°91%
1433°+0.1°99%
1533°+0.0°100%
1632°+0.1°100%
1731°+0.0°100%
1830°+0.0°100%
1930°+0.0°100%
2029°+0.0°100%
2129°+0.0°100%
2229°+0.0°100%
2329°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclear0.9° above normal across 28 days (+0.2 to +1.6).
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.9°28d
few-0.1°62d
scattered-0.7°23d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowN at 9ktnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
VARIABLE+2.6°13d
S+0.9°16d
SW+0.4°57d
NW+0.2°132d
W-0.5°155d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 29°C | 27°C | 32°C | 29°C | 31°C |
| 01:00 | 29°C | 27°C | 32°C | 28°C | 30°C |
| 02:00 | 29°C | 26°C | 32°C | 28°C | 30°C |
| 03:00 | 28°C | 26°C | 31°C | 28°C | 29°C |
| 04:00 | 27°C | 26°C | 30°C | 27°C | 29°C |
| 05:00 | 27°C | 26°C | 30°C | 27°C | 29°C |
| 06:00 | 28°C | 26°C | 30°C | 27°C | 28°C |
| 07:00 | 27°C | 25°C | 30°C | 27°C | 28°C |
| 08:00 | 29°C | 26°C | 32°C | 28°C | 30°C |
| 09:00 | 32°C | 28°C | 34°C | 30°C | 32°C |
| 10:00 | 33°C | 30°C | 35°C | 31°C | 34°C |
| 11:00 | 35°C | 27°C | 37°C | 34°C | 35°C |
| 12:00 | 35°C | 27°C | 37°C | 34°C | 36°C |
| 13:00 | 34°C | 31°C | 39°C | 33°C | 35°C |
| 14:00 | 34°C | 32°C | 37°C | 33°C | 34°C |
| 15:00 | 33°C | 31°C | 37°C | 32°C | 34°C |
| 16:00 | 33°C | 30°C | 36°C | 32°C | 34°C |
| 17:00 | 32°C | 26°C | 35°C | 31°C | 33°C |
| 18:00 | 31°C | 26°C | 33°C | 30°C | 32°C |
| 19:00 | 31°C | 26°C | 33°C | 30°C | 31°C |
| 20:00 | 30°C | 27°C | 33°C | 30°C | 31°C |
| 21:00 | 30°C | 27°C | 33°C | 30°C | 31°C |
| 22:00 | 30°C | 27°C | 33°C | 30°C | 31°C |
| 23:00 | 30°C | 27°C | 33°C | 29°C | 31°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
32°C
—
11-08
32°C
—
11-07
33°C
—
11-06
35°C
—
11-05
35°C
—
11-04
36°C
—
11-03
39°C
—
11-02
36°C
—
11-01
35°C
—
10-31
36°C
—
10-30
35°C
—
10-29
35°C
—
10-28
36°C
—
10-27
38°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON30°32°-2.2°
07-11ICON29°33°-3.7°
06-11ECMWF35°35°+0.4°
05-11ECMWF34°35°-1.4°
04-11ICON35°36°-1.3°
03-11ICON37°39°-2.3°
02-11ICON35°36°-0.8°
01-11ICON35°35°+0.3°
31-10ICON35°36°-0.6°
30-10ICON35°35°+0.3°
29-10ICON35°35°-0.1°
28-10ICON36°36°+0.5°
27-10ICON37°38°-0.7°
26-10ICON37°36°+0.5°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.9°, within a degree on
67% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON31.1°29.6°0.89°most accurate here
UK Met Office32.3°31.9°1.05°
NOAA GFS30.6°30.6°1.19°
Environment Canada GEM31.7°30.9°1.30°
ECMWF IFS32.7°29.7°1.59°
CMA GRAPES30.9°30.4°1.86°
JMA GSM28.7°28.7°5.02°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON0.89°+0.13°71%
UK Met Office1.05°-0.11°58%
NOAA GFS1.19°-1.10°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.30°-1.26°55%
ECMWF IFS1.59°+1.39°29%
CMA GRAPES1.86°-1.86°18%
JMA GSM5.02°-5.02°0%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z320° 13kt; 7000m; scattered at 4,000ft
temporarily10/06Z→10/18Zvariable 25kt; 1500m; blowing dust; thunderstorm rain; few at 3,000ft (CB); broken at 4,000ft
becoming10/18Z→10/20Z020° 6kt
TAF OEJN 100600Z 1006/1112 32013KT 7000 SCT040 TEMPO 1006/1018 VRB25KT 1500 BLDU TSRA FEW030CB BKN040 BECMG 1018/1020 02006KT
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤27°C0%0%0/67
28°C0%0%0/67
29°C0%0%0/67
30°C1%1%1/67
31°C18%1%1/67
32°C44%7%5/67
33°C34%21%14/67
34°C4%25%17/67
35°C0%21%14/67
36°C0%13%9/67
≥37°C0%9%6/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 102% and climatology to 100%.