Istanbul (LTFM) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤7°C0%0¢

8°C0%0¢

9°C0%0¢

10°C1%0¢

11°C7%2¢

12°C12%12¢

13°C25%47¢

14°C24%38¢

15°C24%4¢

16°C6%1¢

≥17°C1%0¢

Our estimate, from ECMWF's forecast made early this morning (14.4° after taking out its usual 0.4° cold lean here), narrowed by what LTFM has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR LTFM, 8 obs

METAR LTFM 100720Z 28006KT 250V320 9999 FEW004 BKN025 09/08 Q1024 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

10:20 9° 8° 280/06 BKN025 —

09:50 9° 8° 260/05 BKN025 —

09:20 9° 8° 240/07 BKN025 -SHRA BR

08:50 8° 8° 220/06 BKN025 -SHRA BR

08:20 8° 7° 200/04 BKN025 -SHRA BR

07:50 8° 7° 190/04 BKN025 -SHRA BR

07:20 8° 7° 200/04 BKN025 -SHRA

06:50 8° 7° — BKN025 -SHRA

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▼

METAR 9°C at 10:20 local, -5.0°C vs 14d-median (14°C this hour) LTFM, running behind climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~9°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint stable (8°C→8°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift

!

Clock test: METAR (9°C @ 10:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥16°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥16°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 13°C, current 9°C @ 10:20

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days LTFM, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 14.0°C usual 10.0°C–14.0°C

typical 14:00 15.0°C usual 12.0°C–17.0°C

noon → peak climb +0.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

21°C

14d high, 2026 11 02

avg high15.0°C

usual range12.0°C – 17.0°C

days ≥16°C5 / 14

days ≥17°C4 / 14

days ≥18°C1 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

11:00–13:00

where the high landed on 67% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 67% of 119 days, most often around 12:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-1.2°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 19:00-1.5°C mean, 5y, n=133

12:00 → 20:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=132

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:20)

implied peak~14°C (clim) vs ecmwf 13°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations LTFM

heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

9° now at 10:00typically +2.0° more (p90 +4.0°)expected peak 11°peak already set on 25% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0014°+3.4°12%

0113°+3.6°13%

0213°+3.4°16%

0313°+3.8°16%

0413°+3.9°16%

0513°+3.8°16%

0613°+3.9°16%

0713°+4.1°16%

0813°+3.6°18%

0914°+2.7°19%

1015°+2.0°25%

1116°+1.1°48%

1216°+0.7°63%

1316°+0.4°81%

1416°+0.2°96%

1516°+0.2°97%

1616°+0.2°99%

1715°+0.3°99%

1815°+0.3°99%

1915°+0.3°100%

2014°+0.4°100%

2114°+0.3°100%

2214°+0.3°100%

2314°+0.2°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken0.9° below normal across 181 days (-1.2 to -0.6).

coldernormalwarmer

few+0.5°23d

scattered-0.8°95d

broken-0.9°181d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowW at 6ktnot enough days on record here to say anything about it

coldernormalwarmer

S+4.4°16d

SW+3.3°80d

E+0.3°25d

NE-0.8°160d

N-1.6°72d

NW-1.9°15d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	14°C	6°C	16°C	10°C	16°C
01:00	15°C	7°C	16°C	10°C	15°C
02:00	14°C	5°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
03:00	14°C	5°C	16°C	10°C	15°C
04:00	14°C	5°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
05:00	13°C	4°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
06:00	14°C	5°C	16°C	9°C	15°C
07:00	14°C	4°C	16°C	10°C	14°C
08:00	14°C	3°C	16°C	10°C	14°C
09:00	14°C	6°C	16°C	10°C	15°C
10:00	14°C	8°C	16°C	10°C	14°C
11:00	14°C	10°C	18°C	11°C	15°C
12:00	14°C	10°C	19°C	11°C	16°C
13:00	14°C	10°C	20°C	11°C	17°C
14:00	14°C	10°C	21°C	11°C	16°C
15:00	15°C	10°C	20°C	11°C	17°C
16:00	15°C	10°C	20°C	11°C	16°C
17:00	14°C	10°C	20°C	11°C	15°C
18:00	14°C	9°C	19°C	10°C	15°C
19:00	14°C	9°C	19°C	10°C	15°C
20:00	14°C	8°C	18°C	10°C	16°C
21:00	14°C	8°C	18°C	10°C	16°C
22:00	15°C	6°C	16°C	10°C	16°C
23:00	14°C	6°C	17°C	10°C	16°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 14°C —

11-08 10°C —

11-07 11°C —

11-06 11°C —

11-05 12°C —

11-04 15°C —

11-03 17°C —

11-02 21°C —

11-01 17°C —

10-31 15°C —

10-30 15°C —

10-29 17°C —

10-28 16°C —

10-27 15°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ICON10°10°+0.4°

07-11ECMWF11°11°+0.1°

06-11ICON11°11°+0.4°

05-11ICON13°12°+1.1°

04-11ECMWF15°15°-0.1°

03-11ECMWF19°17°+1.7°

02-11ECMWF21°21°-0.3°

01-11ECMWF18°17°+1.2°

31-10ECMWF16°15°+1.0°

30-10ECMWF15°15°+0.5°

29-10ECMWF17°17°-0.1°

28-10ECMWF16°16°-0.4°

27-10ECMWF16°15°+0.6°

26-10ICON18°18°+0.5°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.0°, within a degree on 67% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by1.9°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

ECMWF IFS13.8°17.6°0.73°most accurate here

DWD ICON12.7°16.7°0.77°

NOAA GFS11.9°14.8°0.82°

Environment Canada GEM12.4°16.3°1.09°

CMA GRAPES13.1°17.1°1.17°

JMA GSM12.2°16.3°1.60°

UK Met Office13.5°16.4°1.90°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

ECMWF IFS0.73°-0.49°82%

DWD ICON0.77°-0.50°82%

NOAA GFS0.82°-0.32°76%

Environment Canada GEM1.09°-0.75°66%

CMA GRAPES1.17°-0.54°58%

JMA GSM1.60°-1.25°50%

UK Met Office1.90°-1.12°53%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12ZAMENDED

base10/06Z→11/12Zvariable 2kt; 10km+; scattered at 600ft; broken at 2,500ft

temporarily10/06Z→10/09Z2800m; light showers rain; mist

becoming10/09Z→10/12Zscattered at 3,500ft

becoming10/12Z→10/15ZCAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft

becoming10/18Z→10/21Z210° 12kt

becoming11/08Z→11/11Z210° 18kt gusting 28

TAF COR LTFM 100440Z 1006/1112 VRB02KT 9999 SCT006 BKN025 TEMPO 1006/1009 2800 -SHRA BR BECMG 1009/1012 SCT035 BECMG 1012/1015 CAVOK BECMG 1018/1021 21012KT BECMG 1108/1111 21018G28KT

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤7°C0%0%0/67

8°C0%0%0/67

9°C0%0%0/67

10°C0%1%1/67

11°C2%4%3/67

12°C12%3%2/67

13°C47%4%3/67

14°C38%9%6/67

15°C4%21%14/67

16°C1%12%8/67

≥17°C0%45%30/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 103% and climatology to 100%.