forecast peak72°DWD ICON
typical further climb+13.7°
usually warmestsunset 17:28
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high
No estimate right now: this morning's forecast has not arrived yet.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KHOU, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
00:53
60°
57°
070/08
OVC110
-RA
23:53
61°
55°
130/05
BKN100
RA
22:53
60°
58°
100/04
OVC110
-RA
21:53
61°
57°
050/04
OVC110
—
20:53
61°
56°
000/00
OVC250
-RA
19:53
62°
55°
030/06
BKN140
—
18:53
61°
55°
340/08
BKN040
—
17:53
60°
54°
020/03
BKN035
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▼
METAR 60°F at 00:53 local, -9.9°F vs 14d-median (70°F this hour)
KHOU, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°F (n=14) — projects to ~62°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): -0.2°F/h, dewpoint rising (55°F→57°F)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (60°F @ 00:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥83°F possible
14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥83°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -9.9°F behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 73°F, current 60°F @ 00:53
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
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cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KHOU, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
70.0°F
usual 66.9°F–72.0°F
typical 14:00
82.0°F
usual 79.0°F–84.9°F
noon → peak climb
+2.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
87°F
14d high, 2026 11 03
avg high82.0°F
usual range79.0°F – 84.9°F
days ≥83°F4 / 14
days ≥84°F4 / 14
days ≥85°F3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 59% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 59% of 130 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+0.0°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-1.8°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-4.6°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-6.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-7.6°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-8.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:53)
implied peak~81°F (clim)
vs ecmwf 73°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KHOU
heating passport climb to peak
66 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
60° now at 01:00typically +13.7° more (p90 +22.0°)expected peak 74°peak already set on 4% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0065°+13.1°5%
0164°+13.7°4%
0263°+14.3°4%
0363°+14.7°4%
0463°+14.8°4%
0563°+14.7°4%
0663°+14.6°4%
0765°+12.0°4%
0868°+9.2°6%
0971°+6.4°6%
1073°+4.4°8%
1175°+2.8°15%
1276°+1.7°29%
1377°+0.5°62%
1477°+0.2°92%
1576°+0.0°100%
1674°+0.0°100%
1771°+0.1°100%
1869°+0.1°100%
1968°+0.2°100%
2067°+0.1°100%
2167°+0.1°100%
2266°+0.0°100%
2365°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowovercast4.9° below normal across 50 days (-7.3 to -2.5).
coldernormalwarmer
clear-1.2°44d
few+0.3°61d
scattered+2.3°141d
broken-0.4°92d
overcast-4.9°50d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowE at 8kt1.7° below normal across 85 days (-2.6 to -0.7).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+6.2°20d
W+5.3°14d
S+4.3°54d
SE+2.6°60d
VARIABLE-0.6°19d
E-1.7°85d
NW-1.9°15d
NE-3.2°59d
N-4.0°48d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 70°F | 63°F | 76°F | 67°F | 72°F |
| 01:00 | 70°F | 61°F | 75°F | 65°F | 71°F |
| 02:00 | 68°F | 60°F | 75°F | 65°F | 72°F |
| 03:00 | 68°F | 60°F | 74°F | 65°F | 71°F |
| 04:00 | 68°F | 60°F | 74°F | 63°F | 70°F |
| 05:00 | 69°F | 60°F | 73°F | 64°F | 71°F |
| 06:00 | 70°F | 60°F | 73°F | 64°F | 72°F |
| 07:00 | 69°F | 59°F | 73°F | 63°F | 72°F |
| 08:00 | 69°F | 63°F | 75°F | 67°F | 73°F |
| 09:00 | 72°F | 63°F | 78°F | 70°F | 73°F |
| 10:00 | 75°F | 64°F | 83°F | 71°F | 76°F |
| 11:00 | 78°F | 61°F | 86°F | 73°F | 79°F |
| 12:00 | 79°F | 66°F | 87°F | 77°F | 82°F |
| 13:00 | 80°F | 66°F | 86°F | 78°F | 82°F |
| 14:00 | 81°F | 65°F | 85°F | 77°F | 82°F |
| 15:00 | 81°F | 64°F | 86°F | 78°F | 82°F |
| 16:00 | 80°F | 64°F | 85°F | 77°F | 82°F |
| 17:00 | 78°F | 64°F | 85°F | 75°F | 80°F |
| 18:00 | 77°F | 64°F | 83°F | 73°F | 78°F |
| 19:00 | 74°F | 64°F | 80°F | 71°F | 75°F |
| 20:00 | 72°F | 63°F | 79°F | 70°F | 73°F |
| 21:00 | 72°F | 63°F | 76°F | 69°F | 73°F |
| 22:00 | 71°F | 63°F | 76°F | 69°F | 73°F |
| 23:00 | 70°F | 63°F | 76°F | 68°F | 73°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
64°F
—
11-08
70°F
—
11-07
80°F
—
11-06
82°F
—
11-05
82°F
—
11-04
79°F
—
11-03
87°F
—
11-02
86°F
—
11-01
86°F
—
10-31
85°F
—
10-30
79°F
—
10-29
82°F
—
10-28
82°F
—
10-27
75°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11GFS74°70°+3.7°
07-11GFS78°80°-2.2°
06-11GFS82°82°-0.3°
05-11GFS82°82°+0.4°
04-11GFS77°79°-2.2°
03-11GFS86°87°-0.8°
02-11GFS85°86°-1.3°
01-11GFS85°86°-1.3°
31-10GFS81°85°-4.1°
30-10GFS78°79°-1.2°
29-10GFS81°82°-0.8°
28-10GFS82°82°-0.2°
27-10GFS81°75°+6.1°
26-10GFS82°82°-0.4°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.3°, within a degree on
52% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by7.0°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON72.1°72.1°1.35°most accurate here
NOAA GFS67.3°74.3°1.35°
UK Met Office74.1°76.8°1.62°
ECMWF IFS71.8°74.8°2.03°
Environment Canada GEM74.3°70.9°2.32°
CMA GRAPES74.1°75.6°3.23°
JMA GSM70.3°73.0°3.99°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON1.35°-0.46°56%
NOAA GFS1.35°+0.86°46%
UK Met Office1.62°-0.96°41%
ECMWF IFS2.03°-1.19°44%
Environment Canada GEM2.32°-0.71°33%
CMA GRAPES3.23°-2.71°8%
JMA GSM3.99°-3.35°0%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z
base10/06Z→11/06Zvariable 2kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; scattered at 1,500ft; overcast at 3,500ft
from10/16Z onwards110° 5kt; >6 statute miles; light showers rain; scattered at 3,000ft; overcast at 8,000ft
from10/23Z onwardsvariable 2kt; >6 statute miles; in the vicinity showers; scattered at 3,000ft; overcast at 8,000ft
TAF KHOU 100520Z 1006/1106 VRB02KT P6SM VCSH SCT015 OVC035 FM101600 11005KT P6SM -SHRA SCT030 OVC080 FM102300 VRB02KT P6SM VCSH SCT030 OVC080
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤67°F2%18%12/67
68-69°F12%0%0/67
70-71°F26%4%3/67
72-73°F34%1%1/67
74-75°F20%7%5/67
76-77°F5%3%2/67
78-79°F3%3%2/67
80-81°F0%13%9/67
82-83°F0%19%13/67
84-85°F0%22%15/67
≥86°F0%7%5/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.