forecast peak63°DWD ICON
climatology alone suggests60°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+9.7°
usually warmestsunset 16:36
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high
No estimate right now: this morning's forecast has not arrived yet.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KORD, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
00:51
50°
37°
230/08
CLR
—
23:51
51°
37°
220/07
FEW250
—
22:51
51°
38°
220/08
CLR
—
21:51
52°
38°
220/07
CLR
—
20:51
52°
39°
230/07
CLR
—
19:51
51°
39°
210/06
FEW250
—
18:51
51°
40°
190/06
SCT250
—
17:51
52°
39°
000/00
FEW250
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 50°F at 00:51 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (48°F–58°F)
KORD, tracking climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +1.8°F (n=14) — projects to ~52°F @ 13:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.2°F/h, dewpoint rising (37°F→37°F)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (50°F @ 00:51) with climatology suggests peak ≥62°F possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥62°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.0°F behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 61°F, current 50°F @ 00:51
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KORD, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
55.0°F
usual 48.0°F–57.9°F
typical 13:00
61.0°F
usual 55.9°F–68.0°F
noon → peak climb
+1.8°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
76°F
14d high, 2026 10 28
avg high61.0°F
usual range55.9°F – 68.0°F
days ≥62°F6 / 14
days ≥63°F6 / 14
days ≥64°F6 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 74% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 74% of 121 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 13:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.6°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00-0.5°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-2.1°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-3.2°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-4.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-4.9°F mean, 5y, n=65
12:00 → 20:00-5.9°F mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:51)
implied peak~61°F (clim)
vs ecmwf 61°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KORD
heating passport climb to peak
67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
50° now at 01:00typically +9.7° more (p90 +19.0°)expected peak 60°peak already set on 16% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0047°+9.2°10%
0146°+9.7°16%
0246°+10.1°16%
0345°+10.4°16%
0445°+10.8°16%
0545°+11.0°16%
0644°+11.1°16%
0746°+9.7°16%
0848°+7.5°16%
0950°+5.5°20%
1052°+3.7°21%
1153°+2.3°26%
1254°+1.2°47%
1355°+0.5°77%
1454°+0.3°95%
1553°+0.2°97%
1652°+0.1°97%
1751°+0.2°98%
1850°+0.2°100%
1949°+0.3°100%
2048°+0.4°100%
2148°+0.2°100%
2247°+0.0°100%
2347°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearonly 11 days on record against a floor of 20, so it is not shown — too few to characterise
coldernormalwarmer
few+2.6°81d
scattered-0.2°90d
broken-0.7°123d
overcast-3.0°83d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 8kt4.0° above normal across 81 days (+2.0 to +6.1).
coldernormalwarmer
S+5.9°66d
SW+4.0°81d
SE+3.3°21d
E-0.8°41d
NE-2.3°39d
W-5.2°49d
NW-5.9°45d
N-7.8°29d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 55°F | 39°F | 67°F | 48°F | 58°F |
| 01:00 | 54°F | 37°F | 67°F | 46°F | 58°F |
| 02:00 | 55°F | 37°F | 68°F | 46°F | 59°F |
| 03:00 | 56°F | 36°F | 68°F | 43°F | 59°F |
| 04:00 | 54°F | 35°F | 65°F | 41°F | 59°F |
| 05:00 | 54°F | 34°F | 64°F | 40°F | 57°F |
| 06:00 | 53°F | 34°F | 64°F | 40°F | 56°F |
| 07:00 | 53°F | 34°F | 64°F | 40°F | 56°F |
| 08:00 | 55°F | 37°F | 66°F | 43°F | 57°F |
| 09:00 | 56°F | 38°F | 67°F | 49°F | 59°F |
| 10:00 | 57°F | 39°F | 68°F | 50°F | 62°F |
| 11:00 | 58°F | 41°F | 69°F | 53°F | 60°F |
| 12:00 | 59°F | 44°F | 72°F | 56°F | 62°F |
| 13:00 | 60°F | 46°F | 73°F | 57°F | 65°F |
| 14:00 | 60°F | 47°F | 74°F | 57°F | 66°F |
| 15:00 | 61°F | 47°F | 74°F | 56°F | 68°F |
| 16:00 | 60°F | 47°F | 76°F | 55°F | 68°F |
| 17:00 | 60°F | 46°F | 75°F | 54°F | 67°F |
| 18:00 | 58°F | 44°F | 72°F | 53°F | 65°F |
| 19:00 | 57°F | 43°F | 69°F | 53°F | 65°F |
| 20:00 | 57°F | 43°F | 69°F | 52°F | 60°F |
| 21:00 | 56°F | 41°F | 68°F | 51°F | 60°F |
| 22:00 | 56°F | 40°F | 68°F | 50°F | 60°F |
| 23:00 | 56°F | 39°F | 68°F | 48°F | 59°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
54°F
—
11-08
61°F
—
11-07
51°F
—
11-06
47°F
—
11-05
52°F
—
11-04
67°F
—
11-03
71°F
—
11-02
61°F
—
11-01
64°F
—
10-31
61°F
—
10-30
58°F
—
10-29
69°F
—
10-28
76°F
—
10-27
68°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON59°61°-2.3°
07-11ICON50°51°-0.8°
06-11ICON49°47°+2.4°
05-11ICON54°52°+1.5°
04-11ICON66°67°-1.1°
03-11ICON71°71°-0.1°
02-11ICON63°61°+1.6°
01-11ICON62°64°-2.1°
31-10ICON58°61°-2.8°
30-10ICON60°58°+2.4°
29-10ICON69°69°+0.3°
28-10ICON74°76°-2.0°
27-10ICON68°68°-0.0°
26-10ICON64°62°+2.0°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.3°, within a degree on
45% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by9.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON62.6°54.7°1.36°most accurate here
Environment Canada GEM63.1°51.1°1.63°
NOAA GFS67.1°56.5°1.77°
JMA GSM61.3°55.6°2.21°
UK Met Office58.5°53.1°2.78°
ECMWF IFS60.4°54.5°2.82°
CMA GRAPES57.7°53.1°4.16°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON1.36°-0.52°36%
Environment Canada GEM1.63°-0.49°36%
NOAA GFS1.77°-0.63°36%
JMA GSM2.21°-0.21°28%
UK Met Office2.78°-2.10°10%
ECMWF IFS2.82°-1.69°21%
CMA GRAPES4.16°-4.04°8%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z240° 8kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from10/09Z onwards310° 7kt; >6 statute miles; few at 25,000ft
from11/03Z onwards260° 4kt; >6 statute miles; few at 15,000ft; broken at 25,000ft
TAF KORD 100520Z 1006/1112 24008KT P6SM FEW250 FM100900 31007KT P6SM FEW250 FM110300 26004KT P6SM FEW150 BKN250
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤51°F0%27%18/67
52-53°F0%6%4/67
54-55°F0%12%8/67
56-57°F0%3%2/67
58-59°F0%12%8/67
60-61°F1%12%8/67
62-63°F4%6%4/67
64-65°F50%3%2/67
66-67°F44%6%4/67
68-69°F2%4%3/67
≥70°F0%9%6/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.