Cape Town (FACT) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤23°C32%0¢

24°C30%1¢

25°C20%10¢

26°C14%17¢

27°C2%36¢

28°C1%32¢

29°C<1%16¢

30°C<1%11¢

31°C<1%1¢

32°C<1%0¢

≥33°C<1%0¢

Our estimate, from JMA's forecast made early this morning (24.0° after taking out its usual 1.9° cold lean here), narrowed by what FACT has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR FACT, 8 obs

METAR FACT 100700Z 20010KT CAVOK 20/15 Q1019 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

09:00 20° 15° 200/10 CAVOK —

08:00 19° 15° 190/13 SCT008 —

07:27 18° 16° 180/11 SCT008 —

07:00 18° 16° 190/12 BKN008 —

06:57 18° 16° 190/12 BKN008 —

06:00 17° 15° 190/11 BKN010 —

05:00 17° 16° 200/12 BKN010 —

04:57 17° 16° 200/12 BKN010 —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

✓

METAR 20°C at 09:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (19°C–22°C) FACT, tracking climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~21°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +1.3°C/h, dewpoint falling (15°C→15°C) drying — accelerates warming

!

Clock test: METAR (20°C @ 09:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥25°C possible 14d records show 5/14 days reached ≥25°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C) ECMWF ens-mean 30°C

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days FACT, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 20.0°C usual 19.0°C–22.0°C

typical 14:00 24.0°C usual 21.0°C–25.0°C

noon → peak climb +1.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

33°C

14d high, 2026 11 09

avg high24.0°C

usual range21.0°C – 25.0°C

days ≥25°C5 / 14

days ≥26°C3 / 14

days ≥27°C3 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

11:00–14:00

where the high landed on 80% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 14:00 local on 80% of 136 days, most often around 13:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.3°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 14:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 15:00+0.1°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 16:00-0.5°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 17:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 18:00-2.6°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 19:00-3.9°C mean, 5y, n=65

12:00 → 20:00-5.2°C mean, 5y, n=65

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 09:00)

implied peak~24°C (clim) vs ecmwf 30°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations FACT

heating passport climb to peak 61 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

20° now at 09:00typically +4.0° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 24°peak already set on 3% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0017°+7.7°0%

0117°+7.9°0%

0216°+8.3°0%

0316°+8.6°0%

0416°+8.6°0%

0515°+9.2°0%

0615°+9.2°0%

0717°+7.5°0%

0819°+5.6°0%

0921°+4.0°3%

1022°+2.7°6%

1123°+1.8°18%

1223°+1.0°45%

1324°+0.7°67%

1424°+0.2°88%

1524°+0.1°97%

1623°+0.0°100%

1722°+0.0°100%

1821°+0.0°100%

1919°+0.0°100%

2018°+0.1°100%

2118°+0.1°100%

2217°+0.2°100%

2317°+0.0°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it

coldernormalwarmer

few-1.1°65d

scattered-2.0°73d

broken-2.9°66d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowS at 10kt+0.1° across 192 days (-0.4 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.

coldernormalwarmer

SE+2.0°20d

VARIABLE+1.1°13d

SW+0.9°42d

S+0.1°192d

N-0.4°19d

NW-1.2°80d

W-1.9°10d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	17°C	15°C	18°C	16°C	18°C
01:00	17°C	15°C	18°C	16°C	18°C
02:00	17°C	14°C	18°C	15°C	18°C
03:00	16°C	12°C	18°C	15°C	17°C
04:00	16°C	11°C	18°C	15°C	17°C
05:00	15°C	10°C	18°C	14°C	16°C
06:00	15°C	10°C	18°C	14°C	16°C
07:00	17°C	14°C	18°C	16°C	18°C
08:00	19°C	14°C	23°C	17°C	19°C
09:00	20°C	15°C	25°C	19°C	22°C
10:00	21°C	18°C	31°C	19°C	22°C
11:00	22°C	18°C	31°C	20°C	24°C
12:00	23°C	18°C	32°C	20°C	25°C
13:00	23°C	19°C	33°C	21°C	25°C
14:00	23°C	19°C	33°C	21°C	25°C
15:00	23°C	19°C	32°C	20°C	25°C
16:00	23°C	19°C	28°C	20°C	25°C
17:00	22°C	18°C	28°C	19°C	24°C
18:00	21°C	18°C	25°C	19°C	23°C
19:00	19°C	17°C	23°C	18°C	21°C
20:00	18°C	16°C	22°C	18°C	19°C
21:00	19°C	16°C	21°C	17°C	19°C
22:00	18°C	15°C	20°C	17°C	18°C
23:00	18°C	15°C	20°C	16°C	18°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 33°C —

11-08 28°C —

11-07 19°C —

11-06 21°C —

11-05 22°C —

11-04 30°C —

11-03 25°C —

11-02 21°C —

11-01 21°C —

10-31 24°C —

10-30 25°C —

10-29 24°C —

10-28 23°C —

10-27 23°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11JMA28°28°-0.3°

07-11JMA18°19°-0.9°

06-11JMA20°21°-0.6°

05-11ECMWF22°22°+0.3°

04-11ECMWF33°30°+2.9°

03-11ECMWF27°25°+2.3°

02-11ECMWF20°21°-0.6°

01-11ECMWF21°21°-0.4°

31-10ECMWF24°24°+0.2°

30-10ECMWF25°25°+0.4°

29-10ECMWF31°24°+6.9°

28-10ECMWF25°23°+1.6°

27-10ECMWF25°23°+1.5°

26-10ECMWF21°21°+0.1°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.1°, within a degree on 67% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by10.1°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

DWD ICON26.7°25.5°0.94°most accurate here

ECMWF IFS31.9°25.7°1.02°

CMA GRAPES25.4°26.0°1.07°

Environment Canada GEM29.9°25.4°1.17°

UK Met Office30.6°23.5°1.18°

NOAA GFS28.7°26.0°1.26°

JMA GSM21.8°21.9°2.09°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

DWD ICON0.94°+0.05°61%

ECMWF IFS1.02°+0.32°66%

CMA GRAPES1.07°-0.13°66%

Environment Canada GEM1.17°+0.44°55%

UK Met Office1.18°+0.80°63%

NOAA GFS1.26°+0.98°53%

JMA GSM2.09°-2.09°24%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z

forecast max27°at 10/11Zmin 16°issued by the national met service

base10/06Z→11/12Z180° 13kt; 10km+; scattered at 1,200ft

from10/08Z onwards180° 13kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft

becoming10/16Z→10/18Zbroken at 800ft

becoming10/21Z→10/23Zvariable 3kt

from11/07Z onwards340° 6kt; 10km+; broken at 1,300ft

from11/09Z onwards300° 10kt; 10km+; broken at 2,000ft

TAF FACT 100400Z 1006/1112 18013KT 9999 SCT012 TX27/1011Z TN16/1104Z FM100800 18013KT CAVOK BECMG 1016/1018 BKN008 BECMG 1021/1023 VRB03KT FM110700 34006KT 9999 BKN013 FM110900 30010KT 9999 BKN020

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤23°C0%46%31/67

24°C1%12%8/67

25°C10%9%6/67

26°C17%6%4/67

27°C36%4%3/67

28°C32%6%4/67

29°C16%7%5/67

30°C11%3%2/67

31°C1%1%1/67

32°C0%1%1/67

≥33°C0%3%2/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 125% and climatology to 100%.