live obs
17°C
RKPK 0700Z
today high so far
17°C
at 14:00 · last 16:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.0°
usually warmestsunset 17:22
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤12°C0%0¢
13°C0%0¢
14°C0%0¢
15°C0%0¢
16°C0%0¢
17°C98%99¢
18°C2%1¢
19°C0%0¢
20°C0%0¢
21°C0%0¢
≥22°C0%0¢
Our estimate, from UK Met Office's forecast made early this morning (16.6° after taking
out its usual 0.5° cold lean here), narrowed by what RKPK has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
RKPK, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
16:00
17°
2°
310/07
FEW030
—
15:00
17°
3°
280/04
FEW030
—
14:00
17°
5°
310/07
FEW030
—
13:00
16°
6°
330/08
FEW030
—
12:00
15°
7°
320/09
FEW030
—
11:00
13°
7°
330/10
CAVOK
—
10:00
12°
6°
330/09
CAVOK
—
09:00
10°
6°
330/07
FEW030
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 17°C at 16:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (15°C–19°C)
RKPK, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 17°C
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°C/h, dewpoint falling (3°C→2°C)
drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: running +1.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 16°C, current 17°C @ 16:00
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
RKPK, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
16.0°C
usual 15.0°C–19.0°C
typical 14:00
17.0°C
usual 15.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb
+1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
21°C
14d high, 2026 10 31
avg high17.0°C
usual range15.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥18°C4 / 14
days ≥19°C4 / 14
days ≥20°C2 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–14:00
where the high landed on 63% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 14:00 local on 63% of 137 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.8°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+1.2°C mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 16:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 17:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 18:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 19:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=67
12:00 → 20:00-4.1°C mean, 5y, n=67
today @ 12:0015°C
implied peak16°C
vs ecmwf 16°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
RKPK
heating passport climb to peak
68 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
17° now at 16:00peak already set on 100% of days by nowtypically only +0.0° left (p90 +0.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0010°+7.9°1%
0110°+8.2°1%
029°+8.6°0%
039°+9.0°0%
049°+9.2°0%
059°+9.4°0%
068°+9.7°0%
078°+9.5°0%
0810°+8.3°0%
0911°+6.5°0%
1013°+4.6°1%
1115°+2.8°7%
1216°+1.5°19%
1317°+0.6°48%
1418°+0.1°89%
1518°+0.0°99%
1617°+0.0°100%
1716°+0.0°100%
1814°+0.0°100%
1913°+0.1°100%
2012°+0.1°100%
2112°+0.1°100%
2211°+0.1°100%
2310°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew+0.3° across 48 days (-0.4 to +1.0) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
few+0.3°48d
scattered+0.8°74d
broken+0.1°134d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 7kt1.0° below normal across 110 days (-1.6 to -0.4).
coldernormalwarmer
S+2.7°19d
SW+1.8°38d
E+1.5°12d
VARIABLE+1.4°27d
W+1.0°12d
NE-0.3°111d
N-0.6°39d
NW-1.0°110d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 11°C | 4°C | 13°C | 9°C | 12°C |
| 01:00 | 10°C | 4°C | 13°C | 9°C | 11°C |
| 02:00 | 10°C | 3°C | 14°C | 8°C | 11°C |
| 03:00 | 9°C | 3°C | 13°C | 8°C | 11°C |
| 04:00 | 9°C | 3°C | 14°C | 7°C | 11°C |
| 05:00 | 9°C | 2°C | 14°C | 7°C | 11°C |
| 06:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 07:00 | 9°C | 3°C | 13°C | 7°C | 11°C |
| 08:00 | 10°C | 3°C | 13°C | 8°C | 12°C |
| 09:00 | 11°C | 6°C | 17°C | 10°C | 13°C |
| 10:00 | 13°C | 7°C | 18°C | 10°C | 15°C |
| 11:00 | 14°C | 10°C | 19°C | 12°C | 16°C |
| 12:00 | 15°C | 12°C | 19°C | 13°C | 17°C |
| 13:00 | 15°C | 13°C | 21°C | 14°C | 18°C |
| 14:00 | 17°C | 12°C | 21°C | 14°C | 19°C |
| 15:00 | 17°C | 12°C | 21°C | 15°C | 19°C |
| 16:00 | 16°C | 12°C | 21°C | 15°C | 19°C |
| 17:00 | 15°C | 10°C | 20°C | 14°C | 17°C |
| 18:00 | 15°C | 10°C | 18°C | 13°C | 16°C |
| 19:00 | 13°C | 8°C | 18°C | 10°C | 14°C |
| 20:00 | 13°C | 8°C | 16°C | 10°C | 14°C |
| 21:00 | 12°C | 6°C | 14°C | 10°C | 13°C |
| 22:00 | 11°C | 5°C | 14°C | 10°C | 12°C |
| 23:00 | 11°C | 5°C | 14°C | 10°C | 12°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10
10°C
—
11-09
14°C
—
11-08
15°C
—
11-07
14°C
—
11-06
17°C
—
11-05
15°C
—
11-04
15°C
—
11-03
19°C
—
11-02
19°C
—
11-01
15°C
—
10-31
21°C
—
10-30
21°C
—
10-29
17°C
—
10-28
17°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11UK Met Office16°15°+1.3°
07-11UK Met Office13°14°-1.1°
06-11UK Met Office16°17°-1.1°
05-11UK Met Office18°15°+2.9°
04-11UK Met Office18°15°+3.0°
03-11UK Met Office19°19°-0.3°
02-11UK Met Office18°19°-0.9°
01-11ICON19°15°+4.1°
31-10ICON22°21°+1.1°
30-10CMA GRAPES21°21°+0.3°
29-10CMA GRAPES19°17°+1.6°
28-10CMA GRAPES15°17°-1.5°
27-10CMA GRAPES19°19°+0.3°
26-10CMA GRAPES24°21°+3.1°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.4°, within a degree on
40% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by1.4°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
ECMWF IFS16.5°16.6°1.23°most accurate here
DWD ICON16.8°16.8°1.25°
UK Met Office15.8°16.0°1.27°
NOAA GFS15.4°16.2°1.34°
Environment Canada GEM16.6°17.6°1.46°
CMA GRAPES16.0°15.9°1.73°
JMA GSM16.7°16.8°1.73°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
ECMWF IFS1.23°-0.39°50%
DWD ICON1.25°-0.50°53%
UK Met Office1.27°-0.63°45%
NOAA GFS1.34°-0.84°47%
Environment Canada GEM1.46°-0.31°58%
CMA GRAPES1.73°-1.19°26%
JMA GSM1.73°-0.54°37%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
forecast max17°at 11/06Zmin 3°issued by the national met service
base10/06Z→11/12Z330° 8kt; 10km+; scattered at 3,000ft
becoming10/08Z→10/09Z330° 6kt
becoming11/02Z→11/03Z330° 8kt
TAF RKPK 100500Z 1006/1112 33008KT 9999 SCT030 TN03/1021Z TX17/1106Z BECMG 1008/1009 33006KT BECMG 1102/1103 33008KT
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤12°C0%7%5/68
13°C0%4%3/68
14°C0%6%4/68
15°C0%9%6/68
16°C0%4%3/68
17°C99%13%9/68
18°C1%7%5/68
19°C0%16%11/68
20°C0%10%7/68
21°C0%7%5/68
≥22°C0%15%10/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 100% and climatology to 100%.