Buenos Aires (SAEZ) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤20°C<1%0¢

21°C<1%0¢

22°C<1%0¢

23°C2%0¢

24°C3%1¢

25°C3%2¢

26°C17%6¢

27°C22%38¢

28°C21%43¢

29°C17%10¢

≥30°C15%3¢

Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (27.2° after taking out its usual 1.1° cold lean here), narrowed by what SAEZ has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR SAEZ, 8 obs

METAR SAEZ 100700Z 03005KT CAVOK 18/11 Q1019 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

04:00 18° 11° 030/05 CAVOK —

03:00 19° 11° 030/07 CAVOK —

02:00 19° 10° 030/08 CAVOK —

01:00 19° 11° 030/06 CAVOK —

00:00 20° 11° 030/06 CAVOK —

23:00 20° 11° 040/08 CAVOK —

22:00 18° 13° 090/04 CAVOK —

21:00 19° 12° 070/08 CAVOK —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▲

METAR 18°C at 04:00 local, +6.0°C vs 14d-median (12°C this hour) SAEZ, running ahead of climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +1.0°C (n=13) — projects to ~19°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +0.3°C/h, dewpoint rising (11°C→11°C) humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely

!

Clock test: METAR (18°C @ 04:00) with climatology suggests peak ≥26°C possible 14d records show 4/14 days reached ≥26°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running +6.0°C ahead of forecast trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 27°C, current 18°C @ 04:00

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days SAEZ, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 12.0°C usual 10.0°C–15.0°C

typical 15:00 25.0°C usual 22.0°C–26.0°C

noon → peak climb +1.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

27°C

14d high, 2026 11 05

avg high25.0°C

usual range22.0°C – 26.0°C

days ≥26°C4 / 14

days ≥27°C1 / 14

days ≥28°C0 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

13:00–15:00

where the high landed on 72% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 72% of 130 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.6°C mean, 5y, n=67

12:00 → 14:00+1.0°C mean, 5y, n=65

12:00 → 15:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 16:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 17:00+0.5°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 18:00-0.2°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 19:00-1.8°C mean, 5y, n=66

12:00 → 20:00-3.8°C mean, 5y, n=66

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 04:00)

implied peak~24°C (clim) vs ecmwf 27°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations SAEZ

heating passport climb to peak 67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

18° now at 04:00typically +11.3° more (p90 +18.0°)expected peak 29°peak already set on 4% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

0017°+9.2°4%

0116°+9.9°4%

0215°+10.4°4%

0315°+10.8°4%

0414°+11.3°4%

0514°+11.6°4%

0614°+11.8°4%

0716°+9.9°4%

0819°+7.2°6%

0920°+5.3°6%

1022°+3.7°7%

1123°+2.6°10%

1224°+1.7°18%

1325°+1.1°34%

1425°+0.6°62%

1525°+0.3°91%

1625°+0.2°97%

1724°+0.1°100%

1824°+0.0°100%

1922°+0.0°100%

2020°+0.1°100%

2119°+0.1°100%

2218°+0.2°100%

2317°+0.0°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it

coldernormalwarmer

scattered+0.3°29d

broken-1.8°46d

overcast-3.9°37d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowNE at 5kt2.0° above normal across 96 days (+1.3 to +2.6).

coldernormalwarmer

N+3.2°37d

NW+2.6°26d

NE+2.0°96d

VARIABLE+1.8°12d

W+0.8°32d

E-0.7°67d

SW-1.1°30d

S-2.5°48d

SE-2.9°35d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	15°C	7°C	19°C	13°C	16°C
01:00	14°C	6°C	18°C	11°C	16°C
02:00	14°C	5°C	18°C	10°C	16°C
03:00	14°C	5°C	18°C	10°C	15°C
04:00	12°C	4°C	18°C	10°C	15°C
05:00	12°C	4°C	19°C	10°C	16°C
06:00	12°C	4°C	19°C	10°C	15°C
07:00	13°C	7°C	20°C	11°C	16°C
08:00	16°C	12°C	21°C	14°C	19°C
09:00	18°C	13°C	22°C	16°C	19°C
10:00	22°C	14°C	23°C	17°C	22°C
11:00	22°C	14°C	25°C	20°C	23°C
12:00	23°C	15°C	25°C	21°C	24°C
13:00	23°C	15°C	26°C	21°C	25°C
14:00	23°C	16°C	26°C	21°C	25°C
15:00	24°C	17°C	27°C	19°C	25°C
16:00	24°C	17°C	27°C	19°C	25°C
17:00	21°C	16°C	27°C	19°C	25°C
18:00	21°C	16°C	25°C	18°C	23°C
19:00	19°C	15°C	25°C	18°C	21°C
20:00	18°C	15°C	21°C	17°C	19°C
21:00	17°C	9°C	18°C	16°C	18°C
22:00	16°C	8°C	20°C	15°C	18°C
23:00	15°C	7°C	19°C	13°C	16°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 25°C —

11-08 23°C —

11-07 17°C —

11-06 25°C —

11-05 27°C —

11-04 26°C —

11-03 23°C —

11-02 26°C —

11-01 22°C —

10-31 26°C —

10-30 24°C —

10-29 25°C —

10-28 25°C —

10-27 19°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ICON21°23°-1.8°

07-11ICON19°17°+2.2°

06-11ICON25°25°+0.2°

05-11ICON27°27°-0.2°

04-11ICON25°26°-0.9°

03-11ICON21°23°-1.6°

02-11ICON27°26°+1.4°

01-11ICON24°22°+2.4°

31-10ICON25°26°-0.9°

30-10ICON23°24°-1.5°

29-10ICON25°25°-0.1°

28-10ICON23°25°-2.0°

27-10ICON20°19°+0.7°

26-10ICON17°18°-0.7°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.2°, within a degree on 39% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by3.8°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

ECMWF IFS27.7°28.1°1.25°most accurate here

DWD ICON26.1°24.4°1.43°

UK Met Office28.0°29.4°1.45°

NOAA GFS26.5°27.6°1.70°

CMA GRAPES24.2°27.5°1.79°

Environment Canada GEM26.7°27.1°1.82°

JMA GSM26.2°23.0°1.83°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

ECMWF IFS1.25°-0.50°46%

DWD ICON1.43°-1.15°38%

UK Met Office1.45°+0.10°51%

NOAA GFS1.70°-1.19°38%

CMA GRAPES1.79°-0.91°44%

Environment Canada GEM1.82°-0.12°28%

JMA GSM1.83°-1.39°26%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z

forecast max27°at 10/19Zmin 16°issued by the national met service

base10/06Z→11/06Z030° 10kt; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft

becoming10/22Z→10/24Zvariable 3kt

TAF SAEZ 100500Z 1006/1106 03010KT CAVOK TX27/1019Z TN16/1009Z BECMG 1022/1024 VRB03KT

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤20°C0%10%7/67

21°C0%1%1/67

22°C0%4%3/67

23°C0%7%5/67

24°C1%10%7/67

25°C2%12%8/67

26°C6%13%9/67

27°C38%6%4/67

28°C43%13%9/67

29°C10%3%2/67

≥30°C3%18%12/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 103% and climatology to 100%.