live obs
16°C
ZBAA 0700Z
today high so far
16°C
at 13:30 · last 15:00
peakalready set
left to climb+0.2°
usually warmestsunset 17:02
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤7°C0%0¢
8°C0%0¢
9°C0%0¢
10°C0%0¢
11°C0%0¢
12°C0%0¢
13°C0%0¢
14°C0%0¢
15°C0%0¢
16°C94%99¢
≥17°C6%2¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (13.8° after taking
out its usual 0.8° cold lean here), narrowed by what ZBAA has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
ZBAA, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
15:00
16°
-7°
210/06
CAVOK
—
14:30
16°
-7°
190/06
CAVOK
—
14:00
16°
-7°
200/06
CAVOK
—
13:30
16°
-6°
—
CAVOK
—
13:00
15°
-7°
—
CAVOK
—
12:30
15°
-7°
—
CAVOK
—
12:00
14°
-5°
—
CAVOK
—
11:30
12°
-4°
—
CAVOK
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
✓
METAR 16°C at 15:00 local, inside the usual range for the last 14 days (12°C–18°C)
ZBAA, tracking climatology
✓
Peak hour 14:00 has passed — today's maximum so far is 16°C
climb projections apply before the peak, not after it
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°C/h, dewpoint falling (-7°C→-7°C)
drying — accelerates warming
●
Today vs ECMWF: tracking forecast (+0.0°C)
ECMWF ens-mean 12°C
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
ZBAA, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
16.0°C
usual 12.0°C–18.0°C
typical 14:00
16.0°C
usual 12.0°C–19.0°C
noon → peak climb
+1.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
22°C
14d high, 2026 10 30
avg high16.0°C
usual range12.0°C – 19.0°C
days ≥17°C6 / 14
days ≥18°C6 / 14
days ≥19°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
12:00–14:00
where the high landed on 81% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 12:00 and 14:00 local on 81% of 133 days, most often around 13:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+1.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 15:00+1.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 16:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-2.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 18:00-3.9°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 19:00-5.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 20:00-6.1°C mean, 5y, n=134
today @ 12:0015°C
implied peak16°C
vs ecmwf 12°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
ZBAA
heating passport climb to peak
136 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
16° now at 15:00peak already set on 99% of days by nowtypically only +0.2° left (p90 +1.0°)
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
005°+9.2°6%
014°+9.6°6%
024°+9.8°7%
034°+10.2°7%
043°+10.6°7%
053°+10.8°7%
063°+10.8°7%
074°+10.5°7%
086°+7.8°7%
098°+5.5°7%
1010°+3.9°10%
1111°+2.7°10%
1212°+1.6°28%
1313°+0.9°58%
1414°+0.3°90%
1513°+0.2°99%
1613°+0.4°100%
1710°+0.6°100%
188°+0.6°100%
197°+0.6°100%
206°+0.6°100%
215°+0.4°100%
225°+0.5°100%
235°+0.3°100%
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowSW at 6kt+1.2° across 11 days (-1.1 to +3.5) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
W+1.5°22d
SW+1.2°11d
VARIABLE+0.4°36d
S+0.3°31d
NW+0.2°62d
SE+0.1°31d
N-0.9°59d
NE-1.9°13d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 5°C | 0°C | 11°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 01:00 | 4°C | 0°C | 11°C | 1°C | 8°C |
| 02:00 | 4°C | -2°C | 11°C | 2°C | 5°C |
| 03:00 | 3°C | 0°C | 9°C | 1°C | 5°C |
| 04:00 | 3°C | -3°C | 8°C | 0°C | 5°C |
| 05:00 | 3°C | -3°C | 9°C | 0°C | 4°C |
| 06:00 | 2°C | -4°C | 8°C | -1°C | 3°C |
| 07:00 | 2°C | -3°C | 8°C | 1°C | 4°C |
| 08:00 | 5°C | -2°C | 10°C | 3°C | 7°C |
| 09:00 | 9°C | 3°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 10:00 | 11°C | 4°C | 17°C | 9°C | 13°C |
| 11:00 | 12°C | 5°C | 20°C | 10°C | 15°C |
| 12:00 | 13°C | 6°C | 21°C | 11°C | 17°C |
| 13:00 | 15°C | 7°C | 21°C | 12°C | 18°C |
| 14:00 | 16°C | 5°C | 21°C | 12°C | 18°C |
| 15:00 | 16°C | 4°C | 22°C | 12°C | 18°C |
| 16:00 | 15°C | 3°C | 21°C | 12°C | 18°C |
| 17:00 | 14°C | 3°C | 20°C | 11°C | 15°C |
| 18:00 | 11°C | 3°C | 18°C | 8°C | 14°C |
| 19:00 | 7°C | 3°C | 17°C | 7°C | 10°C |
| 20:00 | 8°C | 2°C | 14°C | 5°C | 10°C |
| 21:00 | 6°C | 2°C | 15°C | 4°C | 9°C |
| 22:00 | 6°C | 2°C | 14°C | 3°C | 9°C |
| 23:00 | 5°C | 2°C | 12°C | 3°C | 7°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-10
0°C
—
11-09
12°C
—
11-08
10°C
—
11-07
7°C
—
11-06
15°C
—
11-05
19°C
—
11-04
13°C
—
11-03
19°C
—
11-02
18°C
—
11-01
18°C
—
10-31
12°C
—
10-30
22°C
—
10-29
20°C
—
10-28
16°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON9°10°-1.3°
07-11ICON6°7°-0.6°
06-11ICON13°15°-1.7°
05-11ICON17°19°-1.5°
04-11ICON14°13°+1.2°
03-11ICON18°19°-0.8°
02-11ICON18°18°-0.3°
01-11ICON19°18°+0.5°
31-10ICON12°12°+0.2°
30-10ICON21°22°-0.9°
29-10ICON20°20°+0.4°
28-10ICON15°16°-1.1°
27-10ICON16°15°+0.9°
26-10ICON19°19°-0.1°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.9°, within a degree on
60% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
DWD ICON12.5°11.0°1.14°most accurate here
JMA GSM15.2°13.2°1.19°
NOAA GFS14.1°13.1°1.29°
ECMWF IFS11.6°10.9°1.53°
Environment Canada GEM13.5°12.1°1.57°
UK Met Office11.0°10.2°1.66°
CMA GRAPES13.1°10.7°2.58°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
DWD ICON1.14°-0.85°45%
JMA GSM1.19°+0.26°58%
NOAA GFS1.29°-0.00°45%
ECMWF IFS1.53°-1.25°39%
Environment Canada GEM1.57°-0.37°39%
UK Met Office1.66°-1.08°34%
CMA GRAPES2.58°-2.41°16%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
forecast max14°at 11/06Zmin -1°issued by the national met service
base10/06Z→11/12Z190° 3mps; CAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
TAF ZBAA 100301Z 1006/1112 19003MPS CAVOK TX15/1007Z TX14/1106Z TNM01/1021Z
market vs climatology today
68 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤7°C0%7%5/68
8°C0%4%3/68
9°C0%4%3/68
10°C0%3%2/68
11°C0%6%4/68
12°C0%4%3/68
13°C0%12%8/68
14°C0%6%4/68
15°C0%15%10/68
16°C99%12%8/68
≥17°C2%26%18/68
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.