forecast peak65°NOAA GFS
climatology alone suggests78°today is running warm for the date
typical further climb+17.8°
usually warmestsunset 17:37
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high
No estimate right now: this morning's forecast has not arrived yet.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KAUS, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
00:53
60°
59°
310/04
BKN100
BR
23:53
61°
60°
000/00
OVC110
-RA
22:53
61°
60°
000/00
BKN060
—
21:53
60°
59°
250/03
BKN055
—
20:53
60°
58°
000/00
BKN110
—
20:34
60°
58°
000/00
BKN060
—
19:53
61°
58°
350/04
OVC048
-RA
18:53
62°
58°
000/00
OVC120
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▼
METAR 60°F at 00:53 local, -5.9°F vs 14d-median (66°F this hour)
KAUS, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +5.0°F (n=14) — projects to ~65°F @ 15:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.0°F/h, dewpoint rising (60°F→59°F)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (60°F @ 00:53) with climatology suggests peak ≥80°F possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥80°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -5.9°F behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 70°F, current 60°F @ 00:53
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KAUS, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
66.0°F
usual 61.0°F–68.0°F
typical 15:00
79.0°F
usual 71.1°F–82.0°F
noon → peak climb
+5.0°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
85°F
14d high, 2026 11 02
avg high79.0°F
usual range71.1°F – 82.0°F
days ≥80°F6 / 14
days ≥81°F5 / 14
days ≥82°F5 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 80% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 80% of 133 days, most often around 14:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+1.5°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+2.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+2.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00+0.8°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-3.6°F mean, 5y, n=65
12:00 → 18:00-7.3°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-9.2°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-10.8°F mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 00:53)
implied peak~80°F (clim)
vs ecmwf 70°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KAUS
heating passport climb to peak
67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
60° now at 01:00typically +17.8° more (p90 +31.0°)expected peak 78°peak already set on 0% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0059°+17.1°0%
0159°+17.8°0%
0258°+18.3°0%
0358°+18.7°0%
0457°+19.4°0%
0557°+19.6°0%
0657°+19.6°0%
0760°+16.8°0%
0863°+13.5°2%
0966°+10.2°1%
1069°+7.4°2%
1172°+5.1°6%
1273°+3.0°8%
1375°+1.5°24%
1476°+0.5°77%
1576°+0.1°94%
1674°+0.0°98%
1770°+0.0°100%
1866°+0.6°100%
1964°+0.7°100%
2062°+0.9°100%
2162°+0.5°100%
2261°+0.3°100%
2360°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowbroken+0.9° across 86 days (-0.7 to +2.4) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.6°47d
few+2.0°95d
scattered+1.2°103d
broken+0.9°86d
overcast-5.6°57d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNW at 4kt+0.6° across 17 days (-3.2 to +4.4) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
S+5.4°114d
SW+4.6°14d
VARIABLE+1.6°17d
NW+0.6°17d
CALM-0.4°24d
SE-0.4°39d
E-1.9°30d
NE-3.8°61d
N-6.4°54d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 66°F | 55°F | 75°F | 61°F | 68°F |
| 01:00 | 65°F | 53°F | 75°F | 59°F | 67°F |
| 02:00 | 64°F | 55°F | 75°F | 60°F | 66°F |
| 03:00 | 63°F | 53°F | 75°F | 60°F | 66°F |
| 04:00 | 62°F | 52°F | 76°F | 59°F | 66°F |
| 05:00 | 61°F | 52°F | 70°F | 59°F | 66°F |
| 06:00 | 62°F | 51°F | 69°F | 58°F | 66°F |
| 07:00 | 61°F | 52°F | 69°F | 57°F | 66°F |
| 08:00 | 65°F | 57°F | 70°F | 59°F | 67°F |
| 09:00 | 66°F | 58°F | 74°F | 61°F | 69°F |
| 10:00 | 68°F | 59°F | 78°F | 62°F | 70°F |
| 11:00 | 71°F | 61°F | 81°F | 64°F | 74°F |
| 12:00 | 75°F | 62°F | 82°F | 70°F | 78°F |
| 13:00 | 77°F | 62°F | 83°F | 69°F | 80°F |
| 14:00 | 78°F | 62°F | 85°F | 71°F | 82°F |
| 15:00 | 79°F | 62°F | 84°F | 74°F | 82°F |
| 16:00 | 78°F | 62°F | 84°F | 74°F | 82°F |
| 17:00 | 79°F | 61°F | 83°F | 73°F | 82°F |
| 18:00 | 75°F | 62°F | 81°F | 69°F | 79°F |
| 19:00 | 71°F | 62°F | 80°F | 67°F | 76°F |
| 20:00 | 69°F | 60°F | 78°F | 67°F | 70°F |
| 21:00 | 69°F | 58°F | 76°F | 63°F | 70°F |
| 22:00 | 68°F | 58°F | 75°F | 66°F | 69°F |
| 23:00 | 66°F | 56°F | 75°F | 63°F | 69°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
61°F
—
11-08
62°F
—
11-07
70°F
—
11-06
74°F
—
11-05
83°F
—
11-04
79°F
—
11-03
82°F
—
11-02
85°F
—
11-01
84°F
—
10-31
79°F
—
10-30
71°F
—
10-29
74°F
—
10-28
81°F
—
10-27
82°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11GFS65°62°+2.7°
07-11GFS73°70°+3.2°
06-11GFS74°74°+0.2°
05-11GFS82°83°-0.8°
04-11GFS77°79°-1.5°
03-11GFS75°82°-6.6°
02-11GFS83°85°-2.0°
01-11GFS84°84°+0.0°
31-10GFS77°79°-1.7°
30-10GFS70°71°-0.9°
29-10GFS79°74°+5.2°
28-10GFS82°81°+1.3°
27-10GFS83°82°+1.5°
26-10GFS82°79°+2.9°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.5°, within a degree on
45% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by6.5°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
NOAA GFS65.1°75.0°1.40°most accurate here
DWD ICON64.4°75.6°1.94°
UK Met Office70.9°75.2°2.35°
Environment Canada GEM69.8°76.3°2.50°
ECMWF IFS69.8°77.0°2.60°
CMA GRAPES70.7°76.3°4.58°
JMA GSM68.9°73.6°4.80°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
NOAA GFS1.40°-0.38°46%
DWD ICON1.94°-0.88°36%
UK Met Office2.35°-1.20°21%
Environment Canada GEM2.50°-0.49°31%
ECMWF IFS2.60°-1.52°13%
CMA GRAPES4.58°-3.72°10%
JMA GSM4.80°-3.91°8%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z000° 0kt; 6 statute miles; light rain; mist; scattered at 2,500ft; broken at 5,000ft
from10/08Z onwards000° 0kt; 6 statute miles; mist; scattered at 1,500ft; overcast at 3,500ft
from10/17Z onwards170° 5kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 5,000ft
from11/03Z onwards230° 3kt; >6 statute miles; broken at 5,000ft
TAF KAUS 100539Z 1006/1112 00000KT 6SM -RA BR SCT025 BKN050 FM100800 00000KT 6SM BR SCT015 OVC035 FM101700 17005KT P6SM BKN050 FM110300 23003KT P6SM BKN050
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤63°F2%19%13/67
64-65°F5%0%0/67
66-67°F14%1%1/67
68-69°F38%0%0/67
70-71°F28%4%3/67
72-73°F12%3%2/67
74-75°F2%4%3/67
76-77°F1%6%4/67
78-79°F0%9%6/67
80-81°F0%10%7/67
≥82°F0%42%28/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 104% and climatology to 100%.