forecast peak73°NOAA GFS
climatology alone suggests66°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+13.8°
usually warmestsunset 17:38
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤61°F<1%0¢
62-63°F<1%0¢
64-65°F<1%0¢
66-67°F4%1¢
68-69°F23%2¢
70-71°F19%7¢
72-73°F35%58¢
74-75°F15%28¢
76-77°F2%2¢
78-79°F1%0¢
≥80°F<1%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (72.5° after taking
out its usual 1.1° cold lean here), narrowed by what KATL has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°F local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
KATL, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
01:52
52°
43°
280/03
FEW250
—
00:52
51°
43°
310/07
BKN250
—
23:52
53°
42°
280/04
BKN250
—
22:52
53°
43°
260/04
SCT250
—
21:52
55°
43°
310/07
FEW250
—
20:52
57°
42°
300/04
FEW250
—
19:52
57°
42°
260/04
SCT250
—
18:52
63°
40°
330/06
SCT250
—
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▼
METAR 52°F at 01:52 local, -9.0°F vs 14d-median (61°F this hour)
KATL, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +3.6°F (n=13) — projects to ~56°F @ 14:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.1°F/h, dewpoint rising (43°F→43°F)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (52°F @ 01:52) with climatology suggests peak ≥72°F possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥72°F
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -9.0°F behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 70°F, current 52°F @ 01:52
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
KATL, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
61.0°F
usual 55.9°F–64.0°F
typical 14:00
71.1°F
usual 70.0°F–73.9°F
noon → peak climb
+3.6°F
how hot it gets last 14 days
80°F
14d high, 2026 11 05
avg high71.1°F
usual range70.0°F – 73.9°F
days ≥72°F6 / 14
days ≥73°F6 / 14
days ≥74°F3 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
13:00–15:00
where the high landed on 79% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 79% of 130 days, most often around 14:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.9°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 14:00+1.4°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 15:00+1.0°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 16:00-0.0°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 17:00-2.7°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 18:00-4.6°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 19:00-5.8°F mean, 5y, n=66
12:00 → 20:00-7.0°F mean, 5y, n=66
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 01:52)
implied peak~71°F (clim)
vs ecmwf 70°F
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
KATL
heating passport climb to peak
67 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
52° now at 02:00typically +13.8° more (p90 +24.0°)expected peak 66°peak already set on 7% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
0057°+12.3°7%
0156°+13.0°7%
0255°+13.8°7%
0355°+14.2°7%
0454°+14.7°7%
0554°+14.9°7%
0654°+15.3°7%
0754°+14.4°7%
0857°+11.9°7%
0960°+9.1°9%
1063°+6.1°12%
1165°+3.8°14%
1267°+2.1°18%
1368°+1.0°50%
1468°+0.4°82%
1568°+0.2°92%
1667°+0.0°98%
1764°+0.1°100%
1862°+0.2°100%
1961°+0.2°100%
2060°+0.1°100%
2159°+0.1°100%
2258°+0.1°100%
2357°+0.0°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowfew+0.3° across 107 days (-1.0 to +1.7) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
clear+0.3°22d
few+0.3°107d
scattered+2.5°89d
broken+0.8°112d
overcast-6.3°58d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowW at 3kt2.9° above normal across 43 days (+1.3 to +4.5).
coldernormalwarmer
SW+4.1°28d
VARIABLE+3.9°14d
W+2.9°43d
S+2.0°17d
SE+1.5°23d
NE-0.5°35d
N-1.4°25d
NW-1.4°79d
E-2.2°110d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 62°F | 50°F | 70°F | 55°F | 65°F |
| 01:00 | 61°F | 48°F | 70°F | 56°F | 64°F |
| 02:00 | 60°F | 48°F | 70°F | 54°F | 64°F |
| 03:00 | 59°F | 46°F | 69°F | 54°F | 63°F |
| 04:00 | 58°F | 46°F | 69°F | 53°F | 62°F |
| 05:00 | 59°F | 45°F | 69°F | 52°F | 62°F |
| 06:00 | 58°F | 45°F | 69°F | 53°F | 60°F |
| 07:00 | 57°F | 45°F | 69°F | 51°F | 61°F |
| 08:00 | 58°F | 48°F | 70°F | 52°F | 60°F |
| 09:00 | 60°F | 52°F | 70°F | 56°F | 62°F |
| 10:00 | 62°F | 56°F | 72°F | 59°F | 64°F |
| 11:00 | 66°F | 56°F | 72°F | 62°F | 66°F |
| 12:00 | 67°F | 62°F | 73°F | 63°F | 70°F |
| 13:00 | 70°F | 63°F | 78°F | 68°F | 72°F |
| 14:00 | 70°F | 63°F | 80°F | 69°F | 73°F |
| 15:00 | 71°F | 62°F | 80°F | 69°F | 74°F |
| 16:00 | 71°F | 62°F | 80°F | 69°F | 74°F |
| 17:00 | 71°F | 60°F | 80°F | 69°F | 74°F |
| 18:00 | 70°F | 59°F | 77°F | 66°F | 72°F |
| 19:00 | 68°F | 59°F | 73°F | 65°F | 70°F |
| 20:00 | 66°F | 57°F | 70°F | 64°F | 70°F |
| 21:00 | 64°F | 55°F | 70°F | 62°F | 68°F |
| 22:00 | 63°F | 53°F | 70°F | 60°F | 67°F |
| 23:00 | 63°F | 51°F | 70°F | 57°F | 66°F |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
63°F
—
11-08
70°F
—
11-07
68°F
—
11-06
74°F
—
11-05
80°F
—
11-04
71°F
—
11-03
71°F
—
11-02
70°F
—
11-01
63°F
—
10-31
71°F
—
10-30
80°F
—
10-29
76°F
—
10-28
74°F
—
10-27
74°F
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON69°70°-1.1°
07-11ICON66°68°-1.5°
06-11ICON73°74°-0.7°
05-11ICON75°80°-5.0°
04-11ICON69°71°-2.4°
03-11ICON71°71°-0.5°
02-11ICON70°70°+0.1°
01-11ICON63°63°-0.2°
31-10ICON69°71°-2.1°
30-10ICON79°80°-1.2°
29-10ICON76°76°+0.1°
28-10ICON72°74°-1.6°
27-10ICON73°74°-0.6°
26-10ICON71°70°+1.2°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 31 scored days: a typical miss of 1.4°, within a degree on
48% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by5.8°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
NOAA GFS73.4°72.5°1.25°most accurate here
DWD ICON71.4°68.9°1.38°
ECMWF IFS69.8°68.2°1.87°
Environment Canada GEM71.6°71.6°1.93°
JMA GSM71.1°71.4°2.00°
UK Met Office67.6°67.6°2.40°
CMA GRAPES69.6°70.0°2.96°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
NOAA GFS1.25°+0.15°54%
DWD ICON1.38°-1.13°51%
ECMWF IFS1.87°-1.35°31%
Environment Canada GEM1.93°-1.35°41%
JMA GSM2.00°-0.47°26%
UK Met Office2.40°-1.96°18%
CMA GRAPES2.96°-2.37°18%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 39 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z310° 4kt; >6 statute miles; few at 20,000ft; broken at 25,000ft
from10/14Z onwards300° 7kt; >6 statute miles; scattered at 20,000ft; scattered at 25,000ft
TAF KATL 100530Z 1006/1112 31004KT P6SM FEW200 BKN250 FM101400 30007KT P6SM SCT200 SCT250
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤61°F0%15%10/67
62-63°F0%6%4/67
64-65°F0%3%2/67
66-67°F1%9%6/67
68-69°F2%9%6/67
70-71°F7%13%9/67
72-73°F58%6%4/67
74-75°F28%13%9/67
76-77°F2%9%6/67
78-79°F0%6%4/67
≥80°F0%10%7/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 98% and climatology to 100%.