Ankara (LTAC) temperature today: live high, forecasts, climatology

chance of each range today's high, live updates with each report

rangeestimatemarket

≤0°C0%0¢

1°C3%0¢

2°C7%11¢

3°C14%30¢

4°C18%37¢

5°C29%14¢

6°C18%4¢

7°C9%2¢

8°C2%0¢

9°C1%0¢

≥10°C<1%0¢

Our estimate, from ECMWF's forecast made early this morning (3.4° after taking out its usual 0.3° cold lean here), narrowed by what LTAC has reported so far and by how much it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00. The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.

live temperature, 24h °C local

actual dewpoint ecmwf usual range

station report raw METAR LTAC, 8 obs

METAR LTAC 100720Z VRB02KT 9999 SCT040 BKN100 01/M03 Q1025 NOSIG

local temp dew wind cloud wx

10:20 1° -3° — BKN100 —

09:50 0° -3° 050/03 BKN100 —

09:20 0° -3° 010/02 BKN100 —

08:50 -1° -3° — BKN100 —

08:20 -1° -4° 330/03 BKN100 —

07:50 -1° -4° — BKN100 —

07:20 -2° -4° — BKN100 —

06:50 -2° -4° 330/04 BKN100 —

what the numbers say right now evaluated at build

current state

▼

METAR 1°C at 10:20 local, -9.0°C vs 14d-median (10°C this hour) LTAC, running behind climatology

↑

This-hour → peak climb median +2.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~3°C @ 15:00 if pattern holds based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window

~

Climb (last ~90min): +1.3°C/h, dewpoint stable (-3°C→-3°C) stable dewpoint — no humidity drift

!

Clock test: METAR (1°C @ 10:20) with climatology suggests peak ≥17°C possible 14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥17°C

●

Today vs ECMWF: running -9.0°C behind trajectory ECMWF ens-mean 5°C, current 1°C @ 10:20

pws network CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page

stations temperature + wind loading…

cool hot colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed

climatology last 14 days LTAC, n=14

Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.

SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant clouds

FEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatter

SCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scattered

BKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)

OVC8 oktas (100%), overcast

VVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)

+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell

+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical development

BKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.

2026-11-10

this hour median 10.0°C usual 7.0°C–13.0°C

typical 15:00 16.0°C usual 11.0°C–17.0°C

noon → peak climb +2.0°C

how hot it gets last 14 days

19°C

14d high, 2026 10 28

avg high16.0°C

usual range11.0°C – 17.0°C

days ≥17°C6 / 14

days ≥18°C2 / 14

days ≥19°C1 / 14

when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands

13:00–15:00

where the high landed on 84% of days

On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 13:00 and 15:00 local on 84% of 138 days, most often around 14:00.

The five-year mean curve is highest at 15:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.

Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.

afternoon climb noon to the peak 5-year mean for this date

12:00 → 13:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 14:00+1.3°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 15:00+1.4°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 16:00+0.9°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 17:00-0.7°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 18:00-2.4°C mean, 5y, n=134

12:00 → 19:00-3.4°C mean, 5y, n=132

12:00 → 20:00-4.6°C mean, 5y, n=132

today @ 12:00awaiting (now 10:20)

implied peak~15°C (clim) vs ecmwf 5°C

station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations LTAC

heating passport climb to peak 134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days

1° now at 10:00typically +5.9° more (p90 +9.0°)expected peak 7°peak already set on 3% of days by now

hrtemp remaining climbmean already peaked

006°+9.8°0%

015°+10.4°0%

025°+11.0°0%

034°+11.3°0%

044°+11.9°0%

053°+12.2°0%

063°+12.4°0%

073°+12.6°0%

084°+11.4°0%

097°+8.8°1%

1010°+5.9°3%

1112°+3.6°6%

1214°+1.9°13%

1315°+0.9°45%

1415°+0.4°79%

1515°+0.2°97%

1615°+0.3°100%

1713°+0.5°100%

1811°+0.4°100%

1910°+0.4°100%

209°+0.5°100%

218°+0.5°100%

227°+0.4°100%

236°+0.2°100%

cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowbroken1.3° below normal across 121 days (-2.1 to -0.5).

coldernormalwarmer

few+0.1°36d

scattered+0.1°132d

broken-1.3°121d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are not separable from normal.

wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal

nowcalm or variableno steady direction through the day, so no sector describes it

coldernormalwarmer

SW+2.2°90d

S+0.7°15d

VARIABLE+0.0°16d

W-0.3°50d

NE-2.0°54d

E-2.1°24d

N-3.0°13d

NW-4.1°15d

Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation, while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still finish in a different sector.

hourly profile, 14d median local time

local	med	min	max	p25	p75
00:00	10°C	-3°C	12°C	6°C	10°C
01:00	9°C	-3°C	12°C	6°C	10°C
02:00	9°C	-4°C	12°C	6°C	10°C
03:00	9°C	-4°C	12°C	6°C	9°C
04:00	8°C	-4°C	11°C	6°C	9°C
05:00	8°C	-4°C	11°C	5°C	9°C
06:00	8°C	-6°C	11°C	4°C	10°C
07:00	9°C	-5°C	11°C	4°C	10°C
08:00	8°C	-6°C	11°C	4°C	10°C
09:00	9°C	-4°C	12°C	6°C	10°C
10:00	10°C	-1°C	13°C	7°C	13°C
11:00	12°C	1°C	16°C	7°C	14°C
12:00	13°C	3°C	16°C	8°C	15°C
13:00	14°C	4°C	19°C	10°C	16°C
14:00	15°C	5°C	18°C	9°C	16°C
15:00	14°C	5°C	17°C	9°C	15°C
16:00	14°C	5°C	17°C	9°C	16°C
17:00	14°C	5°C	17°C	9°C	16°C
18:00	13°C	3°C	15°C	9°C	15°C
19:00	12°C	1°C	15°C	8°C	13°C
20:00	11°C	1°C	13°C	7°C	12°C
21:00	11°C	-1°C	13°C	8°C	12°C
22:00	10°C	-1°C	12°C	7°C	12°C
23:00	10°C	-1°C	12°C	7°C	11°C

observed highs last 14 days Iowa Environmental Mesonet

11-09 8°C —

11-08 5°C —

11-07 7°C —

11-06 11°C —

11-05 12°C —

11-04 16°C —

11-03 17°C —

11-02 17°C —

11-01 17°C —

10-31 15°C —

10-30 17°C —

10-29 14°C —

10-28 19°C —

10-27 18°C —

forecast record what our morning pick said last 14 days

daymodelsaid highmiss

08-11ECMWF5°5°+0.3°

07-11Environment Canada GEM8°7°+1.3°

06-11Environment Canada GEM10°11°-1.5°

05-11Environment Canada GEM12°12°+0.0°

04-11Environment Canada GEM15°16°-1.5°

03-11Environment Canada GEM18°17°+1.2°

02-11Environment Canada GEM19°17°+1.5°

01-11Environment Canada GEM17°17°+0.4°

31-10Environment Canada GEM16°15°+1.4°

30-10ECMWF15°17°-1.5°

29-10ECMWF17°14°+3.5°

28-10ECMWF19°19°-0.0°

27-10ECMWF17°18°-0.6°

26-10ECMWF21°20°+0.7°

Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded. Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 1.2°, within a degree on 47% of days.

what each model says daily maximum ordered by accuracy at this station

models disagree by4.8°across 7 models today

modeltoday tomorrow its typical miss

ECMWF IFS2.9°10.0°0.93°most accurate here

Environment Canada GEM5.2°8.9°0.93°

NOAA GFS7.5°10.5°1.14°

DWD ICON2.7°9.1°1.22°

JMA GSM5.4°11.4°1.24°

CMA GRAPES7.2°9.9°1.84°

UK Met Office3.1°9.0°1.98°

Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking — the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.

model skill which model to trust here vs observed station max

model accuracy typical miss warm / cold within 1°

ECMWF IFS0.93°-0.48°66%

Environment Canada GEM0.93°-0.43°68%

NOAA GFS1.14°-0.58°50%

DWD ICON1.22°-1.05°47%

JMA GSM1.24°-0.69°45%

CMA GRAPES1.84°-1.55°26%

UK Met Office1.98°-1.80°13%

Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree. Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.

forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/06Z

base10/06Z→11/06Zvariable 2kt; 10km+; scattered at 4,000ft; broken at 10,000ft

temporarily10/08Z→10/12Zlight showers snow; broken at 3,000ft; broken at 8,000ft

TAF LTAC 100440Z 1006/1106 VRB02KT 9999 SCT040 BKN100 TEMPO 1008/1012 -SHSN BKN030 BKN080

market vs climatology today 67 past days near this date

max market climatology marketclimate days

≤0°C0%0%0/67

1°C0%0%0/67

2°C11%0%0/67

3°C30%0%0/67

4°C37%0%0/67

5°C14%1%1/67

6°C4%0%0/67

7°C2%1%1/67

8°C0%1%1/67

9°C0%0%0/67

≥10°C0%96%64/67

Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles. It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather, and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information. Market column sums to 98% and climatology to 100%.