live obs
0°C
EHAM 0725Z
today high so far
2°C
at 00:25 · last 02:55
forecast peak6°UK Met Office
climatology alone suggests3°today is running cool for the date
typical further climb+3.3°
usually warmestsunset 16:57
00040812162024
now
chance of each range today's high, live
updates with each report
rangeestimatemarket
≤1°C0%0¢
2°C<1%0¢
3°C<1%0¢
4°C<1%0¢
5°C1%0¢
6°C8%5¢
7°C27%33¢
8°C15%50¢
9°C30%11¢
10°C18%2¢
≥11°C0%0¢
Our estimate, from ICON's forecast made early this morning (8.9° after taking
out its usual 0.1° cold lean here), narrowed by what EHAM has reported so far and by how much
it usually still climbs after this hour. Replayed on 19 past days (967 station-days): ranges it gave about 30% happened about 30% of the time. Its most likely range came true about a third of the time at 08:00, two thirds at 14:00 and nearly always by 17:00.
The market price is the crowd's view; neither is advice.
live temperature, 24h
°C local
actual
dewpoint
ecmwf
usual range
station report raw METAR
EHAM, 8 obs
local
temp
dew
wind
cloud
wx
08:25
0°
0°
040/02
NSC
BR BR
07:55
0°
0°
040/03
NSC
BR
07:25
-1°
-1°
060/02
NSC
BR
06:55
-1°
-1°
060/02
NSC
BR
06:25
1°
1°
060/03
NSC
BR
05:55
0°
0°
110/02
NSC
BR
05:25
0°
0°
120/02
NSC
FZFG
04:55
0°
0°
120/01
NSC
FZFG
what the numbers say right now
evaluated at build
current state
▼
METAR 0°C at 08:25 local, -8.0°C vs 14d-median (8°C this hour)
EHAM, running behind climatology
↑
This-hour → peak climb median +0.0°C (n=14) — projects to ~0°C @ 14:00 if pattern holds
based on noon→peak deltas in 14d window
~
Climb (last ~90min): +0.7°C/h, dewpoint rising (0°C→0°C)
humidifying — caps daytime warming, cloud development likely
!
Clock test: METAR (0°C @ 08:25) with climatology suggests peak ≥12°C possible
14d records show 6/14 days reached ≥12°C
●
Today vs ECMWF: running -8.0°C behind trajectory
ECMWF ens-mean 7°C, current 0°C @ 08:25
pws network
CWOP volunteer stations within 25km, refreshed with the page
stations temperature + wind
loading…
cool
hot
colour = deviation from network median, arrow = wind direction, length = speed
climatology last 14 days
EHAM, n=14
Cloud cover layers — METAR reports the lowest broken/overcast layer first. Higher number = more sky covered.
SKC / CLR / NCDclear sky, no significant cloudsFEW1–2 oktas (12–25% cover), light scatterSCT3–4 oktas (37–50%), scatteredBKN5–7 oktas (62–87%), broken (mostly cloudy)OVC8 oktas (100%), overcastVVvertical visibility (sky obscured by fog/precip)+CBcumulonimbus suffix, thunderstorm cell+TCUtowering cumulus, pre-storm vertical developmentBKN014 = broken cloud at 1,400 ft. BKN014+CB = broken cloud + cumulonimbus present.
2026-11-10
this hour median
8.0°C
usual 5.0°C–9.0°C
typical 14:00
11.0°C
usual 9.0°C–14.0°C
noon → peak climb
+0.0°C
how hot it gets last 14 days
16°C
14d high, 2026 10 29
avg high11.0°C
usual range9.0°C – 14.0°C
days ≥12°C6 / 14
days ≥13°C5 / 14
days ≥14°C4 / 14
when it peaks where the daily maximum usually lands
11:00–13:00
where the high landed on 66% of days
On dates near this one, this station's daily maximum fell between 11:00 and 13:00 local on 66% of 112 days, most often around 12:00.
The five-year mean curve is highest at 14:00 — that is when the average day is warmest, which runs later than the typical day's own peak.
Use the noon→later climb panel on the right to map current readings to expected peak.
afternoon climb noon to the peak
5-year mean for this date
12:00 → 13:00+0.2°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 14:00+0.4°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 15:00-0.1°C mean, 5y, n=133
12:00 → 16:00-0.8°C mean, 5y, n=134
12:00 → 17:00-1.3°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 18:00-1.6°C mean, 5y, n=132
12:00 → 19:00-1.9°C mean, 5y, n=131
12:00 → 20:00-2.1°C mean, 5y, n=132
today @ 12:00awaiting (now 08:25)
implied peak~11°C (clim)
vs ecmwf 7°C
station intelligence 5 years of IEM observations
EHAM
heating passport climb to peak
134 observations per hour, 5 years, ±7 days
0° now at 08:00typically +3.3° more (p90 +7.0°)expected peak 3°peak already set on 18% of days by now
hrtemp
mean
already peaked
008°+3.3°15%
018°+3.3°14%
028°+3.4°15%
038°+3.5°16%
048°+3.4°16%
058°+3.5°17%
068°+3.5°18%
078°+3.5°17%
088°+3.3°18%
099°+2.7°19%
1010°+1.8°28%
1111°+1.1°45%
1211°+0.7°60%
1311°+0.5°78%
1411°+0.2°96%
1511°+0.3°97%
1610°+0.4°97%
1710°+0.3°97%
189°+0.4°97%
199°+0.4°97%
209°+0.4°100%
219°+0.3°100%
229°+0.2°100%
238°+0.1°100%
cloud regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowclearnot enough days on record here to say anything about it
coldernormalwarmer
few-0.4°88d
scattered-0.3°137d
broken-0.5°87d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) under
that sky, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the date.
Sky state is the mean cover across the hours the day warms (09–15 local), not a
single reading. An indicator, not a cause — where a sky state is rare it
tends to arrive with the system that made it rare, so a large figure is usually the
weather pattern showing through the cloud rather than the cloud itself. Greyed rows are
not separable from normal.
wind regime Sep–Nov, against this date's normal
nowNE at 2kt-0.7° across 18 days (-2.1 to +0.6) — not separable from normal. Treat as no signal today.
coldernormalwarmer
SW+0.9°87d
S+0.5°91d
SE+0.5°54d
E-0.0°31d
NE-0.7°18d
W-1.0°55d
N-1.1°16d
NW-1.2°26d
Each bar is the middle half of days (25th–75th percentile) for
that direction, with a tick at the mean; the centre line is this station's normal for the
date. Direction is where the wind came from. An indicator, not a cause -- a
direction arrives with a weather system, and it is the system you are seeing. Greyed rows
are not separable from normal. ⚠ “now” is the latest single observation,
while the history buckets whole days (09–15 local averaged), so today may still
finish in a different sector.
hourly profile, 14d median
local time
| local | med | min | max | p25 | p75 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 00:00 | 8°C | 2°C | 13°C | 5°C | 10°C |
| 01:00 | 8°C | 2°C | 13°C | 4°C | 10°C |
| 02:00 | 8°C | 2°C | 13°C | 5°C | 10°C |
| 03:00 | 8°C | 2°C | 13°C | 5°C | 10°C |
| 04:00 | 7°C | 1°C | 13°C | 6°C | 10°C |
| 05:00 | 7°C | 1°C | 13°C | 6°C | 10°C |
| 06:00 | 7°C | 0°C | 14°C | 5°C | 9°C |
| 07:00 | 8°C | 1°C | 14°C | 6°C | 9°C |
| 08:00 | 8°C | 0°C | 14°C | 5°C | 9°C |
| 09:00 | 8°C | 1°C | 14°C | 5°C | 10°C |
| 10:00 | 10°C | 2°C | 15°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 11:00 | 10°C | 4°C | 15°C | 8°C | 12°C |
| 12:00 | 11°C | 6°C | 16°C | 8°C | 13°C |
| 13:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 16°C | 9°C | 12°C |
| 14:00 | 10°C | 7°C | 16°C | 9°C | 14°C |
| 15:00 | 11°C | 7°C | 16°C | 9°C | 13°C |
| 16:00 | 10°C | 7°C | 15°C | 9°C | 13°C |
| 17:00 | 10°C | 6°C | 14°C | 8°C | 12°C |
| 18:00 | 9°C | 5°C | 14°C | 7°C | 12°C |
| 19:00 | 9°C | 4°C | 14°C | 7°C | 11°C |
| 20:00 | 10°C | 4°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 21:00 | 10°C | 4°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 22:00 | 9°C | 5°C | 13°C | 6°C | 11°C |
| 23:00 | 8°C | 3°C | 13°C | 6°C | 10°C |
observed highs last 14 days
Iowa Environmental Mesonet
11-09
11°C
—
11-08
10°C
—
11-07
7°C
—
11-06
9°C
—
11-05
9°C
—
11-04
10°C
—
11-03
11°C
—
11-02
14°C
—
11-01
12°C
—
10-31
9°C
—
10-30
13°C
—
10-29
16°C
—
10-28
15°C
—
10-27
16°C
—
forecast record what our morning pick said
last 14 days
daymodelsaid
highmiss
08-11ICON10°10°-0.4°
07-11ICON7°7°-0.4°
06-11ICON9°9°+0.1°
05-11ECMWF9°9°+0.3°
04-11ECMWF11°10°+0.9°
03-11ICON11°11°+0.1°
02-11UK Met Office13°14°-1.1°
01-11UK Met Office13°12°+1.3°
31-10UK Met Office12°9°+2.8°
30-10UK Met Office14°13°+0.8°
29-10UK Met Office16°16°-0.3°
28-10UK Met Office15°15°-0.2°
27-10UK Met Office16°16°-0.1°
26-10UK Met Office13°13°+0.3°
Each morning the site picks the model that has missed least here lately and takes out
its usual lean; this is that forecast, made before the day's heating, beside what the station recorded.
Over all 30 scored days: a typical miss of 0.6°, within a degree on
77% of days.
what each model says daily maximum
ordered by accuracy at this station
models disagree by4.2°across 7 models today
modeltoday
tomorrow
its typical miss
UK Met Office5.5°8.4°0.51°most accurate here
DWD ICON7.9°6.9°0.52°
Environment Canada GEM7.5°8.0°0.70°
ECMWF IFS6.6°7.7°0.77°
NOAA GFS9.7°9.7°0.86°
CMA GRAPES8.6°7.4°1.01°
JMA GSM5.8°6.2°1.27°
Ordered by each model's track record at this station, not by a global ranking —
the best model is not the same everywhere, and the median gap between a station's best and worst model is 1.2°C. A wide disagreement means
the models have found different weather, not that the average of them is right.
model skill which model to trust here
vs observed station max
model
accuracy
typical miss
warm / cold
within 1°
UK Met Office0.51°+0.02°82%
DWD ICON0.52°-0.08°84%
Environment Canada GEM0.70°-0.32°79%
ECMWF IFS0.77°-0.59°68%
NOAA GFS0.86°+0.21°71%
CMA GRAPES1.01°-0.66°68%
JMA GSM1.27°-0.89°50%
Typical miss is how far off the model usually is, in either direction — lower
is better. Warm / cold is which way it leans: a model can be accurate on average and
still run consistently warm here. Within 1° is how often it landed inside a degree.
Scored against what this station actually recorded, over 38 days.
forecast TAF, valid 10/06Z→11/12Z
base10/06Z→11/12Z110° 4kt; 600m; fog; no significant cloud
temporarily30%10/06Z→10/08Z200m; freezing fog; sky obscured
becoming10/08Z→10/11Z4000m; mist; broken at 500ft
becoming10/11Z→10/13ZCAVOK (ceiling and visibility OK); no cloud below 5,000ft
becoming10/18Z→10/21Z6000m
possibly30%10/19Z→10/24Z2000m; mist; scattered at 200ft; broken at 300ft
becoming11/00Z→11/03Z060° 6kt; 10km+
TAF EHAM 100520Z 1006/1112 11004KT 0600 FG NSC PROB30 TEMPO 1006/1008 0200 FZFG VV001 BECMG 1008/1011 4000 BR BKN005 BECMG 1011/1013 CAVOK BECMG 1018/1021 6000 PROB30 1019/1024 2000 BR SCT002 BKN003 BECMG 1100/1103 06006KT 9999
market vs climatology today
67 past days near this date
max
marketclimate
days
≤1°C0%0%0/67
2°C0%0%0/67
3°C0%0%0/67
4°C0%0%0/67
5°C0%1%1/67
6°C5%0%0/67
7°C33%1%1/67
8°C50%4%3/67
9°C11%10%7/67
10°C2%12%8/67
≥11°C0%70%47/67
Climatology is what this station actually recorded on this date across five years of IEM
observations, bucketed on the rounded whole degree exactly as the market settles.
It is a base rate, not a forecast — it knows nothing about today's weather,
and the market does. Where the two differ, the market usually has the better information.
Market column sums to 101% and climatology to 100%.